文｜时代周报 王晨婷

编辑｜梁励

jinjiuyinshi，chuantongwaimaodehuangjinshijie。

danzaiwaimaoyewuyuanxuxinkanlai，zheigewangjibingburuyuqi。yuanbenzuohaolianzhouzhuanzhunbeidetazhongxinxianrukaidanjiaolv：zhei“jin”zenmejiudaobulewoshouli？

buzhixuxinyiren，quanqiumaoyizhengjinglijiannanshike。congzhongguolaikan，jinnianqian8geyue，woguojinchukouzongzhi27.08wanyiyuanrenminbi，tongbijiang0.1%。qizhong8yuechukoutongbixiajiang3.2%，yilianxu4geyuetongbixiajiang，danjiangfuyousuoshouzhai。

cong“jizhuangxiangyixiangnanqiu”，daoyiqingfangkongpingwenzhuanduanhoudexinxiheqidai，zaidaoquanqiujingjixiaxingbeijingxiadexuqiuxiajiang，waimaodingdanxiahua……yinianzhinei，waimaorenzhimianquanqiujingjibiandong，jinglilegezhongsuantiankula。

buguo，butongxifenxingyedeshichangyechayimingxian，yourenyuexinqingsongguowan，yeyourendingdanjianban，zaijianchihezhuanxingjianyaobai。

shangwubushujuxianshi，waimaozhijiehejianjiedaidongjiuye1.9yiren。zuoweizhijieganshouwaimaolengredezhiyequnti，waimaoyewuyuanzheiyinianshizenmeguode？

月入过万，但前景堪忧

97nianchushengdefuquecongshiwaimaoxingyeyijingyinianduole。

benshenjiushiguojimaoyizhuanyedetazaibiyehouruzhileyijiaguimobudadewaimaogongsi，zhuyaozuosujiaomojuchanpin。congyiwusuozhidaozhujianshangdao，fuquezairuzhidiergeyuexingyundichengjiaolediyibidingdan。

fazhanlexindekehu，laokehuyekaishifandan，wendingdekeyuanhedingdan，rangtajibennenggouyueruguowan。buguo，xiabanshijianyuelaiyuewan，shiyidianxiabanchenglechangtai。

gerenyewushizhubuzoushanglezhenggui，danzhenggeshichangxingshibingmeiyourufuqueqidaibanderenao。

waimaoshichangdebianhua，zhiguantixianzaitongjishujuli。yirenminbiji，jinnianqian8geyue，woguojinchukouzongzhitongbiweijiang0.1%，chukouzengzhang0.8%；ruoyimeiyuanji，1-8yuechukouetongbixiahua5.6%。

“dingdanzaijianshao，kehuzailiushi。xingyejingzhengjiaju，bufenchangjiachannengguosheng，weileweichizhengchangyunzhuan，weiyoujiangdichanpinshoujiayizhengqudingdan。”

fuquegaosushidaizhoubaojizhe，xiangbiyinianqian，daiyushitishenglehenduo。danshidaolemingnianhuozhehounian，buganbaozhengzheidaiyushifouhaihuihexianzaichipinghuozhezengjia，“yinweikaifaxindekehubiandeyufakunnanle”。

dingdanjianshaoyekaishiyingxiangdaofuquedeshenghuozhuangtai——5yuedingdanzhijiejianban，tagongzuoyilaidiyicizhoumoshuangxiu。

fuquehaibankaiwanxiaodishuo：“xiangzhuanxingmaishoujiqiaole。”tabushimeichangshiguobaitan：maileyiwanshangboboji，zhimaichusanfen，shengxiadezijidangwanfanle。

竞争加剧，利润降低

xingyejingzhengjiaju，zheiwentiyekunraozheelián。

eliánzuodezhuyaoshichaiyoufadianjizu。taganggangjingliwanyitang“lameiliulangzhilv”，zhanzhuanduogeguojiachuchaleyigeduoyue。xinkudechucha，huanlailejiazhibaiwandexindingdan。

danzaieliánkanlai，rujinwaimaoshengyibingbuhaozuo。“zuijinyinian，henmingxiandeshitongxingjingzhengjilie，gongsiyexinhenda，xiangtongsha，zhijiejiagejiazhangqi。jiushixianrangkehumianfeinadaochanpin，guoliangsangeyuedengkehumaichuquhouzaifuqian，jiagehaibianyi，zheiduikehulaishuoxiyinlitebieda。”

shangwubushujuxianshi，jinnian1-8yue，youjinchukoushijidewaimaoqiyechaoguo58wanjia，tongbizengzhang6%，qizhongyizhongxiaoweiqiyeweizhu、chongmanhuolideminyingqiyezhanbi8chengyishang。erwaimaozongliangdezengsu，bingbujiwaimaoqiyeshuliangzengjiadesudu。

suiraneliánsuozaidegongsishigaixingyedeguoneichukoudiyi，danyijiugandaoletongxingjingzhengdeyali。

“meigeyiduanshijianjiuhuiyoujijiazheiyangdegongsimaochulai，yaomehenkuaidaobi，yaomechongshangquzuodahougaibianzuofa。danzuizhongdejieguojiushixingyelirunyuelaiyuedi，shourubianshao。”eliánshuo。

shidaizhoubaojizhelejiedao，suiranguoneichaiyoufadianjizushengchanchangshangzhongduo，dandaduoshujizhongzaizhongdiduanshichang。yufuquesuozaidesujiaomojuxingyeleisi，cunzaizhexiangduimingxiandezhongfujianshe，congerdaozhishichangjingzhengchengdujilie。suizhangqiyilai，chukouliangdouchuyugaowei，dansuizhejinnianlaiwoguolaodongchengbenbuduantisheng，yezaiyidingchengdushangdaozhixingyechukouyoushibuduanxiajiang。

“xingyejingzhengjiajushiyigeyanzhongwenti，daozhileyajia、maolilvxiahua，erzheizaiyidingchengdushangyeyujingjixiahuadengyinsuyouguan。”quanlianbinggougonghuixinyongguanliweiyuanhuizhuanjiaanguangyongduishidaizhoubaojizheshuo，“yaozhuanxiangzhengxiangjingzheng，haishixuyaoqiyecaiquchuangxincelve，bujinjinzaijiageshangjingzheng，haiyaozaichanpinzhiliang、fuwu、pinpaijianshedengfangmianyousuotupo。”

ciwai，anguangyonghaizhichu，hezuoyulianmengyekeyibangzhuqiyezaishichangshanggengyoujingzhengli，zhengfukeyichutaigengduozhengcelaiguliqiyeyanfachuangxin、tigaojishuhanliang。

结构变化，从低端到高端

genjuhaiguanzongshushuju，jinnianqian8geyue，zhongguochukoujidianchanpin8.97wanyiyuan，zengzhang3.6%，zhanchukouzongzhide58%。qizhong，qichechukouzonge4427yiyuan，zengzhang104.4%，zengzhangqiangjing。

muqian，woguowaimaojiegouzhengyinglaizhuanxingshengji，gengduoxinxingchanpinzaiguojijingzhengzhongtuxianyoushi。

yangweishialibabaguojizhanxiaoer（kehujingli），zhuanmenbangzhuzhongxiaoqiyetuozhanguojimaoyidechukouyingxiaotuiguangfuwu。congtadeshijiaokanlai，zuijinyinianwaimaozongliangbianhuabuda，“ganjueduibi2019nianwaimaozongliangshiyouxiaofuduzengzhangde，danyouyugaosuzengzhangturanfanghuan，rangbushaowaimaoqiyeganshoudaohendadetiaozhan，erchukoujiegoubianhuajiaoweimingxian。”

“chanpinchukoujiegouzhengshixiancongdiduanzhuanxianggaoduan，congdifujiazhidaogaofujiazhidebianhua。congdajiachangshuodewaimaochukou‘xinsanyang’（diandongzairenqiche、taiyangnengdianchi、lidianchi）laikan，zheixiechanpinyijiagao，jishuhanliangyexiangduijiaogao，yizhibaochigaosuzengzhang。eryixiediduanzhizaoye，suizhechanyedaishengjiheguodujingzheng，qishilirunhexiaoliangdouyousuoxiahuade，henduoqiyebuzuozhuanxingshenzhidounanyiweixi。”

yangweihaiganshoudao，yixiejiandandedaigongchanpinyaonengzhuazhushichangdejihuidian，conghaiwaimaijiadexuqiuquzuotuozhanhedingzhi，yehenkenenghuanfadierchun。“yiwobijiaoshuxidejiancaixingyelaishuo，youqiyejingenquniankataershijiebeidengshijian，zhaodaojihuidianxiaoshouyidongfangwu，jiunengqiangzhanshichangxianji。”yangweishuo。

congshiwaimao14niandeyelingconghuagongwaimaodachanglizhihou，xuanzelezijichuangye。tamiaozhunlemeizhuangchanpin，“buguanwaibushichangzenmebianhua，meizhuangrihuazheixieyizhidouyouxuqiu，suoyizheiyinianlaidingdanyebijiaopingwen。muqianzhuyaoshiheguowaidemeizhuangpinpaihezuo，kehudouhenwending，gongzuoyebijiaoqingsong。”yelingduijizheshuo。

youqizuijindehuilvbianhuarangyelinggewaikaixin：“zhengqiangengduole！womenyibanshianmeiyuanbaojia，zhiqian（meiyuanduirenminbi）huilv6.6，xianzai7.3，1000wanmeijindedingdan，huansuanxialaijiuduole700wanrenminbi。gaoduankehuyibanduihuilvmeitaidaganjue，buhuijijiaotaiduo。”

“yinweihuilvbianhuayingxiangxiadanjuecedezheizhongkehukendingyou，danshibuhuishidaduoshu。”yangweiyegaosujizhe，waimaoyibanhuisuohuijiaoyi，huilvbiandongyingxiangdedaduoshishangjia，rujindehuilvbianhuaduishangjialaishuoyebijiaolihao。

“新三样”表现乐观

youyuhaiwaixuqiupianruo，zuixingongbude8yuewaimaoshujuxianshi，chukouetongbirenglianxudisigeyuechuyutongbifuzengzhangzhuangtai，danjiangfuyousuoshouzhai。“xinsanyang”yijiushiladongwaimaohuinuandezhuyaoliliang。1-7yue，“xinsanyang”hejizengzhangle51%，8 yuelidianchi、taiyangnengdianchichukouyanxukuaisuzengzhangshitou。

buguo，jishishi“xinsanyang”xingyeneidewaimaogongsi，yebingfeiyiqieshunfengshunshui。

lichuchuzainianchuruzhileyijiataiyangnengnibianqidewaimaogongsi，danzaishiyongqideqianlianggeyueneidoumeinengchenggongkaidan。

“wodeganshoushi，guangfu、taiyangnengzheixiedoubeixingyejutouchiwanle（fene），waiguokehuyehenzhongshipinpai。jibianjinruyeneipaimingkaoqiandedagongsi，kehuyejibenbeigongsiqianbeikaifawanle。xingyesuiranzhengtizengzhanghenkuai，danqishikai（chukou）danhaishitingnande。”

shidaizhoubaojizhezhuyidao，jinqizhaokaide2023shanghaiqiyeguojihuajingyingheguihuiyishang，zuixinfabule《waimao“xinsanyang”qiyeguojimaoyifengxianyujingbaogao》，qizhongtidao，quanqiukuaisukuochanjibutiecijixiaguangfuchanyehuomianlinguoshengfengxian；xinnengyuanjishusuobanshengdeshujuanquanfengxianzhidechixuguanzhu。bingjianyijianlijianquanwaimao“xinsanyang”jianceyujingtixi。

zaianguangyongkanlai，yaobaochiwoguo“xinsanyang”chanpinchukoudeyoushi，jiaqiangshichangdiaoyan，touruyanfahechuangxin，chixutigaoxinsanyangchanpindezhilianghefujiazhishizuiweiguanjiande。yucitongshi，yexukaolvyuguojimaijiajianliwendingdehezuoguanxi，tigaochukouchanpindekechixuxing，bingcongpinpaifangmiantishengxinsanyangchanpindezhimingdu。

shangwubuyanjiuyuanxueweiweiyuanhuiweiyuanbaimingzedui“xinsanyang”dechukoubaochileguan。zaitakanlai，“xinsanyang”deliangyanbiaoxiantixianwoguochukouzhidetishengheliangdehelizengzhang。suizhewaimaochukoujiegoubuduanyouhua，chukouchanyelianyanzhang，chukouchanpindefujiazhizengjia，weilai3nian，zengqiangguimo、tishengpinzhi，“xinsanyang”chukouhaiyouzengzhangkongjian。

zaiyeneikanlai，chukouzengsudenianneididianhuoyichuxian，chuantongdewaimaowangjihuodailaiyidingdezengzhangdongli。zhideqidaideshi，wenwaimaozhengcehuoyeyinglaijiama。

fuqueyouzhongxinmangliuqilai。jinruxiabannian，dingdanhuifudaozhengchangqingkuang，xinkehujizhongxiadan，laokehuluxufandan。tashouqibaitandexinsi，jihuachengweixiayigeyueduxiaoguan；

eliándelameichuchazhilvhuanlailebaiwandingdan，suiranxinku，danhaishiyufaxiangshouzijidegongzuo，“xiwangkeyiyizhizuoxiaqu”；

yelingyiranxiangshouzhezijidegongzuojiezou。zaixiuxilianggeyuepeihaiziduguoshujiahou，tazaijinqizhongxinfugong，bingshunlijiexiaxindan。

zaigongsiqianbeidebangzhuxia，lichuchuzhongyukaichulezijidediyifendingdan。naxiaxiaoyiwandeticheng，“wojuedezijiyoukeyile！”

（应采访对象需求，文中李楚楚、傅雀为化名）