文｜时代周报 曹 萌

编辑丨卢泳志

1yue15ri，zhongguorenminyinxing（yixiajiancheng“yangxing”）kaizhan9950yiyuanzhongqijiedaibianli（mlf）caozuo，zhongbiaolilvweichizai2.5%bubian。windshujuxianshi，benyueyou7790yiyuanmlfdaoqi，shixianjingtoufang2160yiyuan。zheiyeshiyangxingqunianyilailianxu13geyuemlfjunzengliangxuzuo，leijijingtoufang27410yiyuan。

△laiyuan：zhongguorenminyinxing

yangxingbiaoshi，cicikaizhanmlfshiweileweihuyinxingtixiliudongxinghelichongyu，chongfenmanzujinrongjigouxuqiu。

zhongguominshengyinxingshouxijingjixuejiawenbinxiangshidaizhoubaojizhebiaoshi，yangxingkainianmlfyanxuchaoexuzuo，shixianjingtoufang2160yiyuan，zhuyaoyuanyu1yuexindai“kaimenhong”youwangjiadachaochuxiaohao，tongshi1yuecaizhengyinsudiejiaraodong，duizijinmianyouyidingchoushuixiaoying。

央行连续超额续作MLF

congyangxinggongkaishichangyewujiaoyigonggaohuoxi，2023nian11yuehe12yue，yangxingfenbiekaizhan1.45wanyiyuanmlf，junjinxingpingjiajingtoufang。qizhong，2023nian12yue，mlfjingtoufangliangda8000yiyuan，chuang2023nianchaoexuzuojingtoufangliangxingao。

△tupianlaiyuan：wind

2024niankainian，yangxingyanxuchaoexuzuomlf，zheishiqiqunianyilaidi13geyuelianxumlfzengliangxuzuo，yileijijingtoufang27410yiyuan，weishichangchixutigongzhongqiliudongxing。jiezhimuqian，mlfdeqimoyuechao8wanyiyuan，chuyulishizuigaozhi。

wenbinbiaoshi，suiranzai“junhengtoufang、pinghuabodong”dezhengceyindaoxia，jinnian1yuexindai“kaimenhong”liduhuotongbijianruo，dankaolvdao“zaotoufangzaoshouyi”delishiguilv，yijijinnianchunjiexiaoyingzhuyaozai2yue，dui1yuexindaitoufangraodongyouxian，yinci1yuexinzengdaikuantoufangneishengdonglirengqiang，jiangduichaochuxingchengyidingxiaohao。bansuipslxinzeng、jinrongzhichizhufangzulinshichangzhengcechutai，jiangjiakuai“sandagongcheng”tuijin，daidongqiyezhongzhangdaiwendingzaijiaogaoshuiping。mlfchaoexuzuo，youzhuyuzengqiangyinxingtixizijindewendingxing，yindaojiadaduishitijingjidezhichilidu。

ciwai，wenbinrenwei，youyu1yueshichuantongjiaoshuidayue，duoshoushaozhi，daozhiyangxingjixuchaoexuzuomlf。yibanmeiyue15riweizengzhishui、suodeshuidengzhuyaoshuizhongshenbaojiezhiri，zhihoulianggegongzuoriweizoukuangaofengqi，shuiqiraodongjiada；tongshiyixiadadedifangzhaitiqianpieduhuoyu1yueqidongfaxing，zhengfucunkuanxianghuoduizijinmianyouyidingchoushui。danqianqiyifaxingzhengfuzhaizijindezhupibofu、5000yiyuanjiansheguozhaideluodishiyongdengyihuiduichongbufenraodong。kaolvdaozhengfuzhaiquanfaxingheduichongkenengcunzaishijiancha，mlfchaoexuzuoyouzhuyuduichongliudongxingbodong，pinghuashuiqidengduizijinmiandeyingxiang。

降息预期落空，后续货币政策如何？

2024nian1yueyangxingxuzuomlfweichililvbubian，yinci1yuefenlprbaojiadagailvjiangweichibubian。windshujuxianshi，mlflilvzi2019nian10yuejinruxiaxingtongdaoyilai，muqianyileijixiadiao80jidian。qizhong，2023nianmlfgongdiaojiang2cililv，fenbieweidangnian6yuehe8yuexiadiao10jidianhe15jidian，quannianxiadiao25jidian，weijinnianxiadiaofudujiaoduodeyinian，jinciyu2020niande30gejidian。

“kaolvdaonianchudaikuanzhongdingjiadengyinsuyingxiang，yinxingxicharengmianlinjiaodashouzhaiyali，zifaqudongmlf-lprjiangxideneizaidonglijiaoruo。”wenbinbiaoshi，2023nian12yuewujiadibuqiwen，m1zengsuzhidiezouping，jinchukouchaoyuqihuinuan，xinzengxindaihesherongzhengtirengzaigaowei，biaomingjingjizhengchuyuwenguhuishengguochengzhong，bansuinianchuxindaitoufanghecaizhengzijinzhichujiakuai，jingjixiufuliduhuijinyibuzengqiang，duanqineijiangxidejinpoxingbugao。

ciwai，wenbinhaizhichu，muqianshichanglilvhaichuyuzhengcelilvzhishang，wenhuilvxuqiuhaizai，jinqiyangxinggongzuohuiyizaicitijijiageshangyao“jianguneiwaijunheng”，yeyiweizhehuobizhengcerenghuizaiyidingchengdushangkaolvhuilvjihaiwaiyinsuderaodong。

1yue8ri，yangxinghuozhengsibiaoshi，jiangqianghuanizhouqihekuazhouqidiaojie，congzongliang、jiegou、jiagesanfangmianfali，weijingjigaozhiliangfazhanyingzaolianghaodehuobijinronghuanjing。zaizongliangfangmian，jiangzongheyunyonggongkaishichangcaozuo、zhongqijiedaibianli、zaidaikuanzaitiexian、zhunbeijindengjichuhuobitoufanggongju，weishehuirongziguimohehuobixindaihelizengzhangtigongyoulizhicheng。

guangdayinxingjinrongshichangbuhongguanyanjiuyuanzhoumaohuafenxi，muqianbufenyinxingjingxichayalijiaoda，yinxingjinyiburanglishitijingji，tuidongdaikuanlilvjinyibuxiaxingkenengxuyaoyangxingjinyibuhuobizhengcegongju+gaigeshouduanpeihe。congshijiankan，zhengcekaoqianfali，tuidongjingjijinkuaihuifuyuanqikan，shichangduiyijiduyangxingzhengcekaoqianfalirengyouqidai。

tongshi，wenbinduiyu2024nianhouxuhuobizhengcezouxiangbiaoshi，zaiyijiduxindaihecaizhengshuangfalihou，ruogaopinjingjizhibiaodushuchixuzouruo，bupaichuhouxujiangxigailvyousuoshangsheng。tongshi，cankaowangnianpinci，yujijiangzhunshidiandagailvluozai3-4yue，tongshangyicijiangeshizhangzai6geyuezuoyou。

值班丨满 满