文｜半导体产业纵横

neicunjishuzuoweijisuanjixitongdehexinzuchengbufen，qixingnengdetishengduiyuzhengtijisuannenglidetishengzhiguanzhongyao。zaizheigebeijingxia，gaodaikuanneicun（hbm）yiqizhuoyuedexingnengbiaoxian，zhengzhujianzaineicunjishulingyuzhanlutoujiao，chengweituidongjisuanlingyujinruquanxinshidaideguanjianliliang。

xiangjiaoyuchuantongdedongtaisuijicunquneicun（dram），hbmdexingnengyoushixianeryijian。

01、远远超越DDR

ddr shiyizhongchangjiandejisuanjineicunleixing，zuizaoshiweiletigaoneicunchuanshusulvershejide。tacaiyongleshuangbeishujuchuanshujishu，jizaimeigeshizhongzhouqineikeyichuanshuliangcishuju，congertigaoleshujuchuanshusulv。

muqianzuichangjiandeddrbanbenshi ddr4、ddr5，danzaiguoquhaiyou ddr3、ddr2、ddrdengbanben。meiyidaiddrbanbendouyoubutongdeshujuchuanshusulvhexingneng。

ddrneicuntongchangyongyujisuanjidexitongneicun，yongyucunchucaozuoxitonghezhengzaiyunxingdeyingyongchengxudengshuju。

hbmshiyizhonggaodaikuanneicunjishu，zhuanzhuyutigonggenggaodeneicundaikuan，youqishiyongyugaoxingnengjisuanhetuxingchulilingyu。hbmdeyigexianzhutedianshi，tashiyongleduidiejishu，jiangduogedramxinpianchuizhiduidiezaiyiqi，congerdadazengjialeshujutonglu，tigaoleneicundedaikuan。

yincihbm juyoukekuozhangengdarongliangdetexing。bujinhbm dedanceng dram xinpianrongliangkekuozhan，hbm haikeyitongguo 4 ceng、8 cengyizhi 12 cengduidiede dram xinpian，ciwaihbmkeyitongguo sip jichengduoge hbm dieceng dram xinpiandengfangfa，shixiangengdadeneicunrongliang。

hbmneicuntongchangyongyugaoxingnengxianka、gpujiasuqiyijixuyaodaliangshujuchuanshudegaoxingnengjisuanyingyongzhong。

conggonghaojiaodulaikan，youyucaiyongle tsv heweitukuaijishu，dram luopianyuchuliqijianshixianlejiaoduandexinhaochuanshulujingyijijiaodidedanyinjiao i/o suduhe i/o dianya，shi hbm jubeigenghaodeneicungonghaonengxiaotexing。yi ddr3 cunchuqiguiyihuadanyinjiao i/o daikuangonghaobiweijizhun，hbm2 de i/o gonghaobimingxiandiyu ddr3、ddr4 he gddr5 cunchuqi，xiangduiyu gddr5 cunchuqi，hbm2 dedanyinjiao i/o daikuangonghaobishuzhijiangdi 42%。

zaixitongjichengfangmian，hbm jiangyuanbenzai pcb banshangde ddr neicunkelihe cpu xinpianquanbujichengdao sip li，yinci hbm zaijieshengchanpinkongjianfangmianyegengjuyoushi。xiangduiyu gddr5 cunchuqi，hbm2 jieshengle 94% dexinpianmianji。

02、三大原厂的研发历程

muqiandehbmshichangzhuyaoyiskhailishi、sanxinghemeiguangsanjiagongsiweizhu。

2014 nian，skhailishiyu amd lianhekaifalequanqiushoukuanguitongkonghbm，zhijinyijingdiedaishengjile4daihbmchanpin，xingnengherongliangchixutisheng。2020nianskhailishixuanbuchenggongyanfaxinyidaihbm2e；2021niankaifachuquanqiudiyikuanhbm3；2022nianhbm3xinpiangonghuoyingweida。2023nian8yue，skhailishituichuhbm3e，11yueyingweidaxuanbuh200jiangdazaihbm3e。

keyishuoconghbm1、hbm2e、hbm3、hbm3e，skhailishichixulingxian。2022nianskhailishizhanjuhbmshichangyue50%defene，sanxingzhanbi40%，meiguangzhanbi10%。

zaihenzhangyiduanshijiannei，skhailishidoushiyingweidahbmdedujiagongyingshang。2023nianskhailishijibenlongduanlehbm3gongying，jinnianqihbm3yuhbm3ededingdanyeyishouqing。

sanxingshizai2016nian，kaishixuanbuliangchan4gb/8gb hbm2 dram；2018nian，xuanbuliangchandierdai8gb hbm2；2020nian，tuichu16gb hbm2echanpin；2021nian，sanxingkaifachujuyouaichulinenglidehbm-pim；suiransanxingdeluxiantuxianshi2022nianhbm3jishuyijingliangchan，danshijishangsanxingdehbm3zai2023niandicaizhengshiwanchengyanzheng，zheiyiweizhezaidaliangshengchanzhiqian，shichanghaishiyousk hailishilongduan。

zaikanmeiguang，2020nian，meiguangxuanbujiangkaishitigonghbm2neicun/xiancun；2021nian，hbm2echanpinshangshi。weilegaishanzijizaihbmshichangzhongdebeidongdiwei，meiguangxuanzelezhijietiaoguodisidaihbmjihbm3，zhijieshengjidaolediwudai，jihbm3e。suihouzai2023nian9yue，meiguangxuanbutuichuhbm3 gen2（jihbm3e），houxubiaoshijihuayu 2024 nianchukaishidapiliangfahuo hbm3 gen2 neicun，tongshitouluyingweidashizhuyaokehuzhiyi。

03、HBM2e过渡到HBM3e

hbmdegainiandeqifeiyuaigcdehuobaoyouzhijieguanxi。

aidamoxingdexingqicuishenglehailiangsuanlixuqiu，ershujuchulilianghechuanshusulvdafutishengshideaifuwuqiduixinpianneicunronglianghechuanshudaikuantichugenggaoyaoqiu。hbmjubeigaodaikuan、gaorongliang、diyanshihedigonghaoyoushi，muqianyizhubuchengweiaifuwuqizhonggpudedazaibiaopei。

muqian，hbmchanpinyihbm（diyidai）、hbm2（dierdai）、hbm2e（disandai）、hbm3（disidai）、hbm3e（diwudai）deshunxukaifa，zuixindehbm3eshihbm3dekuozhanbanben。

来源：山西证券

hbmmeiyicigengxindiedaidouhuibansuizhechulisududetigao。yinjiao（pin）shujuchuanshusulvwei1gbpsdediyidaihbm，fazhandaoqidiwudaichanpinhbm3e，sulvtigaodaole8gbps，jimeimiaokeyichuli1.225tbdeshuju。yejiushishuo，xiazaiyibuzhangda163fenzhongdequangaoqing（full-hd）dianying（1tb）zhixubudao1miaozhongdeshijian。

dangran，cunchuqiderongliangyezaibuduanjiada。hbm2edezuidarongliangwei16gb，muqian，sanxingzhengzailiyongeuvguangkejilaizhizao24gbrongliangdehbm3xinpian，ciwai8ceng、12cengduidiekezaihbm3eshangshixian36gb（yejiezuida）derongliang，bihbm3gaochu50%。

ciqianskhailishi、meiguangjunyixuanbutuichuhbm3exinpian，jiekeshixianchaoguo1tb/sdedaikuan。

genjutrendforcejibangzixundiaochaxianshi，2023nianhbmshichangzhuliuweihbm2e，baohannvidia a100/a800、amd mi200yijiduoshucspsziyanjiasuxinpianjieyiciguigesheji。tongshi，weishunyingaijiasuqixinpianxuqiuyanjin，geyuanchangjihuayu2024niantuichuxinchanpinhbm3e，yuqihbm3yuhbm3ejiangchengweimingnianshichangzhuliu。

04、HBM3e市场彻底被引爆

skhailishiwuyishizheiboneicunrechaozhongdezuidashouyizhe，jiezhi2023nian12yue31ri，skhailishizai2023cainianhedisijidudeyingshouqudelexianzhuzengzhang。tebieshiqizhulichanpinddr5 dramhehbm3，zaizheiyiniandeshourujiaoqunianshangzhangle4beiyishang。

yingweidaheamddexiayidairengongzhinenggpuyujijiangzhuyaodazaihbm3neicun。liru，h100shidiyikuanzhichipcie 5.0biaozhundegpu，yeshidiyikuancaiyonghbm3degpu，zuiduozhichiliukehbm3，daikuanwei3tb/s，shia100caiyonghbm2ede1.5bei，morenxiancunrongliangwei80gb。

2023nian11yueyingweidafabulexinyidaiai gpuxinpianh200，yijidazaizheikuangpudeaifuwuqipingtaihgx h200dengchanpin。zheikuangpushih100deshengjikuan，yijiucaiyonghopperjiagou、taijidian4nmzhichenggongyi，genjuyingweidaguanwang，h200degpuxinpianmeiyoushengji，hexinshu、pinlvmeiyoubianhua，zhuyaodeshengjibianshishoucidazaihbm3exiancun，bingqierongliangcong80gbtishengzhi141gb。

deyiyuxinshengjidehbm3exinpian，h200dexiancundaikuankeda4.8tb/s，bih100de3.35tb/stishengle43%。buguozheiyuanmeiyoudadaohbm3edeshangxian，haiwaifenxirenshichengyingweidayouyijiangdihbm3edesudu，yizhuiqiuwending。ruguoyuchuantongx86fuwuqixiangbi，h200deneicunxingnengzuigaokeda110bei。

youyumeiguang、skhailishidenggongsidehbm3exinpianxudengdao2024niancaihuifahuo，yinciyingweidabiaoshih200chanpinyujijiangzai2024niandierjiduzhengshikaishou。

amd de mi300 yedapei hbm3，qizhong，mi300a rongliangyuqianyidaixiangtongwei 128gb，genggaoduan mi300x zeda 192gb，tishengle 50%。amdcheng，mi300xtigongdehbmmiduzuigaoshiyingweidaaixinpianh100de2.4bei，qihbmdaikuanzuigaoshih100de1.6bei。zheiyiweizhe，amddexinpiankeyiyunxingbiyingweidaxinpiangengdademoxing。

yucitongshi，zai2023niansuizheai gpu yijiyuaixiangguandegeleixuqiujizeng，hbmjiageyechixushangzhang。shichangyanjiujigouyolo group baogaoxianshi，2023 nianqijianhbm neicungongxulianfashenglezhongdabianhua，shengchanshuipinghecaiyonglvtongshidafutigao，shide hbm chengweibirengongzhinengrechaozhiqiangengyoujiazhideziyuan，2023nian hbm xinpiandepingjunshoujiashichuantong dram neicunxinpiandewubei。

zaihbmshengxingdedangxia，meiyouyijiacunchuchangshangnenggourenzhubufenyibeigeng。

05、三大原厂为之“疯狂”

技术升级

skhailishizaisemicon korea 2024shangfabuleyixiangzhongyaogonggao，gongbuleqixiongxinbobodegaodaikuancunchuqiluxiantu。gaigongsifuzongcaikim chun-hwantoulu，jihuazai2024shangbanniankaishiliangchanxianjindehbm3e，bingqiangdiaoxiangkehujiaofu8cengduidieyangpin。

hbm3eshiskhailishichanpinxiandezuixinchanpin，kemanzuriyizengzhangdeshujudaikuanxuqiu，zai6duizhanpeizhizhong，meiduizhanketigong1.2 tb/shejingrende7.2 tb/stongxindaikuan。kim chun-hwanjiangzheizhongjinbudejinpoxingguiyinyushengchengshirengongzhinengdexunsujueqi，yujijiangjianzhengjingrende35%defuhenianzengzhanglv（cagr）。raner，tajinggaoshuo，zaibuduanshengjidekehuqiwangdetuidongxia，bandaotixingyezhengzaimianlin“jiliedeshengcunjingzheng”。

suizhezhichenggongyijiediandesuoxiaobingjiejinqijixian，bandaotixingyeyuelaiyueguanzhuxiayidaicunchuqijiagouhegongyi，yishifanggenggaodexingneng。skhailishiyijingqidonglehbm4dekaifa，jihuayu2025niantigongyangpin，bingyucinianliangchan。

genjumeiguangdexinxi，yuqianjidaihbmxiangbi，hbm4jiangcaiyonggengguangfande2048weijiekou。daozhimeigeduizhandelilunfengzhineicundaikuanchaoguo1.5 tb/s。weileshixianzheixiefeifandedaikuan，zaibaochiheligonghaodetongshi，hbm4demubiaoshidayue6gt/sdeshujuchuanshusulv。zheizhonggengkuandejiekouhegengkuaidesudujiangshihbm4nenggoutuponeicundaikuandejiexian，manzuriyizengzhangdegaoxingnengjisuanheaigongzuofuzaixuqiu。

sanxingshibandaotixingyedezhuyaocanyuzhe，gaigongsiyeyouhbm4defabushijianbiao，jihuayu2025niantigongyangpin，bingyu2026nianliangchan。sanxinggaoguanjaejune kimtoulu，gaigongsidehbmchanliangdeyibanyishangyijingyouzhuanyechanpinzucheng。dingzhihbmjiejuefangandequshiyujijiangjiaju。tongguoluojijicheng，liangshendingzhidexuanxiangduiyumanzugexinghuakehuxuqiuzhiguanzhongyao，congergongguleshichangdiwei。

suizhehbm3edefabuhehbm4dezhunbei，skhailishihesanxingzhengzaiweiweilaidetiaozhanzuozhunbei，zhizaibaochiqizaihbmjishuqianyandediwei。bujinruci，quanqiuqiansandacunchuxinpianzhizaoshangzhengjianggengduochannengzhuanyizhishengchanhbm，danyouyudiaozhengchannengxuyaoshijian，hennanxunsuzengjiahbmchanliang，yujiweilailiangnianhbmgongyingrengjiangjinzhang。

扩产情况

zaikansandayuanchangdekuochanqingkuang。juxi，skhailishijiangkuodaqigaodaikuanneicunshengchansheshitouzi，yiyingduigaoxingnengaichanpinxuqiudezengjia。

qunian6yueyoumeitibaodaocheng，skhailishizhengzaizhunbeitouzihouduangongyishebei，jiangkuojianfengzhuanghbm3delichuangongchang，yujidaojinniannianmo，gaichanghouduangongyishebeiguimojiangzengjiajinyibei。

ciwai，skhailishihaijiangzaimeiguoyindiannazhoujianzaoyizuozuixianjindezhizaogongchang，juliangweijieshouyingguo《jinrongshibao》caifangdexiaoxirenshitoulu，skhailishijiangzaizheijiagongchangshengchan hbm duizhan，zheixieduizhanjiangyongyutaijidianshengchande nvidia gpu，sk jituandongshizhangbiaoshi，gaigongchangyujihaozi 220 yimeiyuan。

sanxingdianzihe sk hailishizhijiandejingzhengzhengzaishengwen。sanxingdianzicongquniandisijidukaishikuodadisidaihbmjihbm3degongying，muqianzhengjinruyigeguoduqi。fuzesanxingmeiguobandaotiyewudezhixingfuzongcai han jin-man zaijinnian1yuebiaoshi，gongsiduibaokuo hbm xiliezaineidedarongliangcunchuxinpianjiyuhouwang，xiwangtanengyinlingkuaisuzengzhangderengongzhinengxinpianlingyu。tazaices 2024demeitijianmianhuishangduijizheshuo，“womenjinniande hbm xinpianchanliangjiangbiquniantigao 2.5 bei，mingnianhaijiangjixutigao 2 bei。”

sanxingguanfanghaitoulu，gongsijihuazaijinniandisijiduzhiqian，jiang hbm dezuigaochanliangtigaodaomeiyue 15 wanzhi 17 wanjian，yicilaizhengduo2024niandehbmshichang。ciqiansanxingdianzichizi105yihanyuanshougoulesanxingxianshiweiyuhanguotiananshidegongchangheshebei，yikuodahbmchanneng，tongshihaijihuatouzi7000yizhi1wanyihanyuanxinjianfengzhuangxian。

weilesuoxiaochaju，meiguangduiqixiayidaichanpin hbm3e xialehendadeduzhu，meiguangshouxizhixingguan sanjay mehrotra biaoshi：“womenzhengchuyuweiyingweidaxiayidai ai jiasuqitigong hbm3e deyanzhengdezuihoujieduan。”qijihuayu 2024 nianchukaishidapiliangfahuo hbm3e neicun，tongshiqiangdiaoqixinchanpinshoudaolezhenggexingyedejidaxingqu。juxi，meiguangkejiweiyuzhongguotaiwandetaizhongsichangyiyu2023nian11yuechuzhengshiqiyong。meiguangbiaoshi，taizhongsichangjiangzhenghexianjintanceyufengzhuangceshigongneng，liangchanhbm3ejiqitachanpin，congermanzurengongzhineng、shujuzhongxin、bianyuanjisuanjiyunduandenggeleiyingyongriyizengzhangdexuqiu。gaigongsijihuayu2024nianchukaishidaliangchuhuohbm3e。

zhidezhuyideshigaojiehbmdejingzhengcaiganggangkaishi，suiranmuqianhbmchanpinzhanzhengticunchudechuhuoliangrengranfeichangxiao，zhangqilaikan，suizhexiaofeidianzichanpinxiangaihuafazhan，duiyugaosuanli、gaocunchu、dinenghaojiangshizhuyaosuqiufangxiang，jianyuciyujihbmyejiangchengweiweilaicunchuchangshangdejishufazhanfangxiang。