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ningdeshidaiguanxuanjiarujiagezhan，rangdianchishichangde2024nianchongmanhuxiangcaitadedanyou。

2024nianchu，“dibiaozuiqiang”lidianchichangshangningdeshidaipaochule“zhongbangzhadan”，shengchengjiangzai2024nianxiaoshouyizhongjiweilianjiadedianchibao，yujichengbenjin0.4yuan/whzuoyou，lingshichanghuaran。

ciqian，ningdeshidaiyixiangshi“jiagegaoyuxingyeshuiping10%”，zheirangersanxiandianxinchangshangdeyiyidijiaguafenbufenshichang，hedaoyikoutang。rujin，ningdeshidaizhijienachu0.4yuan/wh、jipolehenduoqiyechengbenjiadedijia，ersanxiandianxinchangshanghaiyouhuoluma？

shichangdedanyoubingfeimeiyoudaoli。2023nian，youyudianxinjiagedechixuzoudi，guoneilidianchixingyeyishi“aihongbianye”，daliangqiyeyejidafuxiahua、xianzaikuisunzhizhong，xingyeneiyichuanchuduojiaqiyezaizheshoucaiyuan、youhuadexiaoxi。

rizibenjiubuhaoguo，ningdeshidaizailaijiagezhan，dianxinchangshangde2024nianzhudingbuhuihaoguo。mianduizheiyangdeshichangkunjing，dianxinchangshangdaodigairuheshixianyouxiaojiangben？zheijiangshijuedingzheyizhongdianxinchangshangshengsicunwangdedawenti。

减产挺价行不通

guoquyinian，lidianchanyeliangehuanjiejiagejunchengxianxiahuazhishi。

jiagexiahuazuiweimingxianqiezuiweixingyeguanzhude，dangshulidianchanyedeyuantoucailiaotansuanli。zai2022nian，shouxiayoudiandongqichegaozengzhangyingxiang，tansuanlijiageyilugaozhang，zuigaoshicenggaoda60wanyuan/dun。daole2023nian，tansuanlijiagebianrutongzuoshangguoshanche，congnianchujiukaishidafuxiahua，dierjiduduanzanhuishenghoujixuxiadie，daoleniandidiezhi10wanyuan/dunpaihuai。jinru2024nian，10wanyuan/dunjihuchenglejiageshangxian。

juliexiadiedetansuanli，daozhilidianzhengjicailiao、fujicailiao、dianjieyedengchanpinjiageyejinrulexiaxingtongdao。

liufulinsuanlishidianjieyedezhongyaocailiao，2022nianniandi，qijiageyuewei23.2wanyuan/dun，erdaole2023nianniandi，baojiadiezhi6.7wanyuan/dun，diefuda71.12%。tongqi，linsuantielizhengjicailiaohesanyuanzhengjicailiaoyefenbieyouyue16wanyuan/dun、32wanyuan/dunxiahuadaoleyue4wanyuan/dun、10wanyuan/dun。

shouciyingxiang，2023nianguoneilidiancailiaochangshangyejipubianxiahua。liru，dianjieyelongtoutiancicailiao（sz：002709）quannianjinglirunxiajiang66.61%。sanyuanzhengjilongtourongbaikeji（sh：688005）jinglirunxiahua56.17%；linsuantielizhengjilongtoudefangnami（sz：300769）yujikuisun14yiyuan—16.5yiyuan，tongbixiajiang158.82%—169.32%。

weilequebaoyidinglirunshuiping，congqunianxiabannianqi，yixietansuanlishengchanshangjicailiaochangjiabiankaishijianchantingjia。

neime，yongjianchanlaitingjiadefangshi，shifoushihedianxinzhizaoqiye？duici，shanghaiyousewang（smm）chunenggaojifenxishiyemingyuanxianghuaxianengyuanwang（gongzhonghaohxny3060）biaoshi，“duidianxinchangshanglaishuo，youyudaliangxinjinruzhedailaidexinchannengguoduo，bukaijisuochanshengdezhejiufeiyudijiaxiaoshouxiangbi，qianzhexianrankuisungengduo。”

jingjishangdebuhuasuan，rangdianxinchangshanghennanquzhudongjianchan，napakuiqianyeyaoyingtingzheshengchan。

材料成本还能降吗？

jianchanxingbutong，neimekongzhiyuancailiaochengbenyoukongjianma？

dianxinchengbengouchengzhong，zhuyaobaohanzhijiecailiaochengbenhefeishengchanxingwuliao，qizhongzhijiecailiaochengbenzhanbizuida（yue91%），zhuyaobaokuozhengfujicailiao、dianjieye、gemosidazhucaiheduanzi、zhanjieji、daodianjidengfucai。

duici，yemingyuanbiaoshi，“conggongyingduanlaishuo，zhengjicailiao、dianjieye、gemodengchangjiatingjiadoushichengbenzhicheng，qijiagebodongbuzuyiduidianxinchengbenchanshenghendadeyingxiang。lingwai，zhangxiejiayekeyidixiaoyibufenjiagebodong。”

yi280ahlinsuantielichunengdianxinweili，smmcengduiqichengbenjinxinglecesuan。zaidianxinzhong，zhengjicailiaochengbenzhanbiyue42%，fujicailiaochengbenzhanbiyue26%，dianjieyecailiaochengbenzhanbiyue7%，gemocailiaochengbenzhanbiyue6%。qizhong，linsuantielizhengjizhong，tansuanlichengbenzhanbidadaole83%；dianjieyezhong，zhuyaoyuanliaoliufulinsuanliyeshoutansuanlideyingxiang。yinci，tansuanlichengweileyingxiangdianxinchengbendezuizhuyaoyuanliao。

zaidangqian，yifangmian，tansuanlijiageyijingchuyudiwei；lingyifangmian，liyanchangshangyouzaijiji“tingjia”，yinci，jixiwangyutansuanlijiagejixuxiajiangershixianjiangben，zheitiaolugenbenzoubutong。

chucizhiwai，muqian，gemodejiagechuyudiweiqiewending，fujidezhuyaoyuanliaorenzaoshimozaizhenzhuangjiaochannengshifangjiagexiadie、zhongliushiyoujiaoyuanliaotidaijiakuaibeijingxia，chengbenyezaikuaisuxiahua，hennanzaiyoujiangjiakongjian。weidufujidelingyizhongyaoyuancailiao——tonghaichuyujiaogaodeweizhi，shizuiyoukenengshixianjinyibujiangjiadecailiao。

不过，研究机构彭博在近日公布的相关数据显示，从行业趋势上来讲，原材料对电芯成本的边际影响已经非常弱了。     

pengboxinnengyuancaijingdianchifenxishishijiayanxianghuaxianengyuanwangbiaoshi：youyushangyoudianchijinshukeyijiyadechengbenkongjianbuda，dianchichangshangzaiyuancailiaofangmiankejiyadejiangbenkongjianyijinghenxiao。

工艺降本才是“王道”

zaidianxinchengbengouchengzhong，chuleyue91%dezhijiecailiaochengben，haiyou9%zuoyoudefeishengchanxingwuliaochengben，zhuyaobaokuorengong、zhejiutanxiaoheshengchanguanlifeiyongdeng。

shijiayangaosuhuaxianengyuanwang，“changshangjiangbendekongjian，zhuyaolaiziyugongyinglianguanlihezhizaochengbenyugongyi。zhizaogongyishangmuqianhaimeiyoudadaojixian。xingyepubiandeliangpinlvhaimeiyoudadao95%huogenggao，ruguonengjiangzhizaogongyijinyibutisheng，haishiyouhendadekongjian。”

liangpinlvshihenglianggongyishuipinghezhizaonenglizuizhijiedezhibiao，yezhijieyingxiangzhechengben。

dianxinzhizaoyou20duogedagongxu，ruguomeidaogongxudelianglvshi 99%，neimezhengtilianglvyezhinengdadao 81.7%；ruguomeidaogongxulianglvwei 98%，neimezhengtilianglvzhiyou 66.7%。

jumeitibaodao，dianxinzhizaoxingyezhong，fangxingdianxindezhengtiliangpinlvzai87%—89%zhijian，erningdeshidainengdadao93.5%，weixingyezuihaobiaoxian。zheiyiweizhe，shengchantongdengshuliangdedianxin，tadezhijiecailiaochengbenhuibijingzhengduishoushao4%zuoyou。

“ningwang”shiruhezuodaorucigaolianglvde？ningdeshidaiqixiayigongsifuzerengaosuhuaxianengyuanwang，zheizhuyaozaiyuqigongyideyouyi。liru，dianxinzhizaohuanjienanduzuigaodejuanraohejierhanjiegongxu，ningdeshidaideliangpinlvfenbieshi 99.8%、97%，erxingyepingjunshuipingfenbiewei97%、94%zuoyou。

zhideyitideshi，jinqi，guojiazhishichanquanjugongbuleningdeshidaiduoxiangzhuanli，qizhongbaokuoshugenenggoutigaochengpindianchilianglvdejishu。yicilaikan，ningdeshidaidedianxinchanpinweilaiyirancunzaijiangbendekongjian。

huaxianengyuanwangzhuyidao，zaijiagezhanyalixia，xuduodianxinchangshangyekaishizaigongyidengfangmianxunqiujiangben，rubiyadiqixiafudidianchicengzaineibutongzhi，zai2024nianjiangjixujiaqiangfeishengchanxingwuliaodeguanlihekongzhi。fengchaonengyuandongshizhangjianshouxizhixingguanyanghongxinyecengbiaoshi，2024niangongsidemubiaoshijiangzhizaochengbenxiajiang40%，caigouchengben+jishujiangbenjiang20%。

keyiyujian，2024nianjiangshidianxinchangshangjitigongjiangongyi、jishujiangbenzuijiannandeyinian，zheijiangjuedinglejiliejingzhengzhongsheinengbalirunlaolaowozaishouzhong，yingdegengduodeshengcunkongjian。