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cf40zhixingyuanzhang:channengguoshengbushidanchundejingjiwenti,ershizhengzhiyiti

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CF40执行院长:产能过剩不是单纯的经济问题,而是政治议题

zhongguojinrongsishirenyanjiuyuan(cf40)zhixingyuanzhangguokaizhichu,zaimeiguo,zhengkemenwangwangliyong“zhongguochongjibo”、channengguoshengwentizuoweixuanjuchouma。

4月22日,中国北京,中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯在CF40宏观政策季度报告发布会上发言。图片来源:中国金融40人论坛

记者 王珍

zhongguojinrongsishirenyanjiuyuan(cf40)zhixingyuanzhangguokaijinribiaoshi,oumeidengguosuozhizhongguochannengguoshengdewenti,bingfeidanchundejingjiwenti,ershishejidaoguojiguanxihezhengzhigejudefuzayiti。

4yue22ri,guokaizaicf40jubandehongguanzhengcejidubaogaofabuhuishangzhichu,tabingburentongmeiguoduichannengguoshengdedingyijiqisuoliejudewenti。tacengjingdanrenzhongguorenminyinxinghuobizhengcesifusizhang。

biru,meiguoxuezhecheng,yinwei“zhongguochongji”,meiguozhizaoyediudiaole200wangegongzuogangwei。guokaishuo,zhizaoyejiuyebianhuashiyigefuzadewenti,shejiduogeyinsu,zidonghuaheshengchanlvdetigaoshidaozhizhizaoyejiuyexiajiangdeguanjianyinsu,eryuzhongguomaoyideguanxizhishiqizhongzhiyi。shishishang,quanqiufanweinei,baokuozhongguozaineidexuduoguojiadezhizaoyejiuyedouzaixiajiang,zheizhuyaoguiyinyujishujinbuhechanyeshengji。lingwai,jishimeiyouzhongguodejingzheng,diduanzhizaoyeyebuhuiliuzaimeiguo,ershihuizhuanyidaoqitadichengbenguojia,rumoxige、yuenanheyindunixiyadeng。yinci,jiangzhizaoyejiuyexiajiangguijiuyuzhongguoshibuhelide。

guokaizhichu,zhongguozuoweiquanqiuzhizaoyedaguo,zhanquanqiuzhizaoyezongchanchudebizhongchaoguo10%,diweijuzuqingzhong。guoquliangnian,yimeiyuanjisuan,zhongguozhizaoyeshunchameiniangaoda1.8wanyimeiyuan,zheigeshuzihexinguanyiqingqianxiangbifanleyibei。zhongguoqudejudashunchadetongshi,yiweizheqitaguojiadenicha,erjianyuzhizaoyeduigeguodezhongyaoxing,channengguoshengwentibianxiandeyouweituchu。

“womenzhongguoshiyongyizhonghuojiansuduzaizengzhang,womenzhizaoyeshunchazaiguoquzheixienian,tebieshiyiqingzheijinian,yixiashengdaoquanqiugdpbizhongde2%,zheishimeiguozaizhanhouzhizaoyeshunchazhanquanqiugdpbizhongdeshuiping。”tashuo。

tatidao,huigulishi,ribenhedeguozaiqidingshengshiqi,zhizaoyeshunchazhanquanqiugdpdebizhongyeweichaoguo1%。meiguozaierzhanjieshushizhizaoyeshunchazhanquanqiugdpdebizhongdadao2%,dansuihoujiuxiajiangzhi0.5%,zaihoulaijibenjiushinichazhuangtai。

“bierenduizhongguozhizaoyegaodudanxin,yinweinizhizaoyeguimozheimeda,nihaiduibierenyouzheimedadeshuncha,erqienijibenshangduiquanqiusuoyoudeguojiadouyoushuncha,zheichanshengleyigehendadezhengzhiwenti。zheibushijingjiwenti,zheishizhengzhiwenti。”guokaishuo。

tazhichu,zaimeiguo,zhengkemenwangwangliyong“zhongguochongjibo”、channengguoshengwentizuoweixuanjuchouma。jinnianqiafengmeiguodaxuannian,guanchaxianrenzongtongyuesefu·baidengdeyanlun,keyifaxiantazhenduitedingchanyedebiaotaipoyouyisi。zaimixiegenzhou,tashengchengjiangduizhongguodediandongqichecaiqugaoguanshuicuoshi;zaibinxifaniyazhou,tayoutichuduizhongguodegangtiehelvchanpinjiazhenggaoeguanshui。jinguanzhongguoshangweixiangmeiguochukouyiliangdiandongqiche,duimeigangtiedechukouliangyeweihuqiwei,danzheixieyitirengbeiyongzuoxuanjuchouma。yuanyinzaiyu,zheixiezhoudetedingchanyeduixuanjujieguojuyoujuedingxingyingxiang,erbaidengxuyaojiecizhengquxuanminzhichi。

“zuoweizhengzhijia,wuluntelangpuhaishibaidengbixudemianduizheiyangderenzhixianshi,fouzetamenmeifayingdexuanju。”guokaishuo。

taqiangdiao,zailijiemeiguodezheizhongxushiyuzhengzhidongjishi,womenbixurenshidao,wulunqizhengqueyufou,zheizhongshehuirenzhizaiduanqineinanyigaibian。 suiranzhongguojiaruwtoduimeiguomouxierenqunqueshichanshengleyingxiang,danhuoyiderenqunyuanduoyushousunrenqun。raner,youyushousunrenqunxiangduijizhong,tamendeshengyinwangwanggengjiaxianglianghezhijie,daozhileyizhongguanganshangdebuduichengxing。xiangbizhixia,huoyirenqunfensanzaigegelingyuhexingye,nanyixingchengtongyideshengyin。yinci,zaixuanjudengzhengzhichanghezhong,shousunrenqundeguandiangengrongyibeifangdaheqiangdiao。

huidaozhongguoguoneilaikan,guokaibiaoshi,jinnianlai,youyufangdichanxingyedediaozheng,zhongguojingjizengzhangzaihendachengdushangyilaiyuzhizaoyetouzi。zhizaoyedekuaisufazhanbujinweizhongguojingjitigongleyoulizhicheng,yedailailechannengdexunsukuozhanghechukoudezengzhang。raner,zheizhongkuaisuzengzhangyejiajulechannengguoshengdewenti。

duiyuchannengguoshengwenti,guokaitichuleyixiliejutidezhengcejianyi。shouxian,zengjianeixushihuanjiechannengguoshengdezhongyaotujing。tongguokuodaguoneishichang,tigaoxiaofeishuiping,keyiyouxiaojianshaoduiqitaguojiadeyilai,tongshiyeyouliyufensanchukoufengxian。

qici,diaozhengchannengshuchufangshiyeshibiyaode。zhongguokeyitongguojiaqiangyuqitaguojiadehezuo,tuidongchannenghezuohegongxiang,shixianhuligongying。tongshi,haikeyiguliqiyejiadajishuchuangxinheyanfatouru,tigaochanpinzhilianghefujiazhi,zengqiangguojijingzhengli。

ciwai,guokaihaiqiangdiaolezhengcexiediaoheguojihezuodezhongyaoxing。geguoyinggaijiaqianggoutongyuhezuo,gongtongyingduiquanqiuzhizaoyedetiaozhan。tongguotuidongmaoyiziyouhuahetouzibianlihua,keyicujinquanqiuzhizaoyedejiankangfazhan。

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CF40执行院长:产能过剩不是单纯的经济问题,而是政治议题

zhongguojinrongsishirenyanjiuyuan(cf40)zhixingyuanzhangguokaizhichu,zaimeiguo,zhengkemenwangwangliyong“zhongguochongjibo”、channengguoshengwentizuoweixuanjuchouma。

4月22日,中国北京,中国金融四十人研究院执行院长郭凯在CF40宏观政策季度报告发布会上发言。图片来源:中国金融40人论坛

记者 王珍

zhongguojinrongsishirenyanjiuyuan(cf40)zhixingyuanzhangguokaijinribiaoshi,oumeidengguosuozhizhongguochannengguoshengdewenti,bingfeidanchundejingjiwenti,ershishejidaoguojiguanxihezhengzhigejudefuzayiti。

4yue22ri,guokaizaicf40jubandehongguanzhengcejidubaogaofabuhuishangzhichu,tabingburentongmeiguoduichannengguoshengdedingyijiqisuoliejudewenti。tacengjingdanrenzhongguorenminyinxinghuobizhengcesifusizhang。

biru,meiguoxuezhecheng,yinwei“zhongguochongji”,meiguozhizaoyediudiaole200wangegongzuogangwei。guokaishuo,zhizaoyejiuyebianhuashiyigefuzadewenti,shejiduogeyinsu,zidonghuaheshengchanlvdetigaoshidaozhizhizaoyejiuyexiajiangdeguanjianyinsu,eryuzhongguomaoyideguanxizhishiqizhongzhiyi。shishishang,quanqiufanweinei,baokuozhongguozaineidexuduoguojiadezhizaoyejiuyedouzaixiajiang,zheizhuyaoguiyinyujishujinbuhechanyeshengji。lingwai,jishimeiyouzhongguodejingzheng,diduanzhizaoyeyebuhuiliuzaimeiguo,ershihuizhuanyidaoqitadichengbenguojia,rumoxige、yuenanheyindunixiyadeng。yinci,jiangzhizaoyejiuyexiajiangguijiuyuzhongguoshibuhelide。

guokaizhichu,zhongguozuoweiquanqiuzhizaoyedaguo,zhanquanqiuzhizaoyezongchanchudebizhongchaoguo10%,diweijuzuqingzhong。guoquliangnian,yimeiyuanjisuan,zhongguozhizaoyeshunchameiniangaoda1.8wanyimeiyuan,zheigeshuzihexinguanyiqingqianxiangbifanleyibei。zhongguoqudejudashunchadetongshi,yiweizheqitaguojiadenicha,erjianyuzhizaoyeduigeguodezhongyaoxing,channengguoshengwentibianxiandeyouweituchu。

“womenzhongguoshiyongyizhonghuojiansuduzaizengzhang,womenzhizaoyeshunchazaiguoquzheixienian,tebieshiyiqingzheijinian,yixiashengdaoquanqiugdpbizhongde2%,zheishimeiguozaizhanhouzhizaoyeshunchazhanquanqiugdpbizhongdeshuiping。”tashuo。

tatidao,huigulishi,ribenhedeguozaiqidingshengshiqi,zhizaoyeshunchazhanquanqiugdpdebizhongyeweichaoguo1%。meiguozaierzhanjieshushizhizaoyeshunchazhanquanqiugdpdebizhongdadao2%,dansuihoujiuxiajiangzhi0.5%,zaihoulaijibenjiushinichazhuangtai。

“bierenduizhongguozhizaoyegaodudanxin,yinweinizhizaoyeguimozheimeda,nihaiduibierenyouzheimedadeshuncha,erqienijibenshangduiquanqiusuoyoudeguojiadouyoushuncha,zheichanshengleyigehendadezhengzhiwenti。zheibushijingjiwenti,zheishizhengzhiwenti。”guokaishuo。

tazhichu,zaimeiguo,zhengkemenwangwangliyong“zhongguochongjibo”、channengguoshengwentizuoweixuanjuchouma。jinnianqiafengmeiguodaxuannian,guanchaxianrenzongtongyuesefu·baidengdeyanlun,keyifaxiantazhenduitedingchanyedebiaotaipoyouyisi。zaimixiegenzhou,tashengchengjiangduizhongguodediandongqichecaiqugaoguanshuicuoshi;zaibinxifaniyazhou,tayoutichuduizhongguodegangtiehelvchanpinjiazhenggaoeguanshui。jinguanzhongguoshangweixiangmeiguochukouyiliangdiandongqiche,duimeigangtiedechukouliangyeweihuqiwei,danzheixieyitirengbeiyongzuoxuanjuchouma。yuanyinzaiyu,zheixiezhoudetedingchanyeduixuanjujieguojuyoujuedingxingyingxiang,erbaidengxuyaojiecizhengquxuanminzhichi。

“zuoweizhengzhijia,wuluntelangpuhaishibaidengbixudemianduizheiyangderenzhixianshi,fouzetamenmeifayingdexuanju。”guokaishuo。

taqiangdiao,zailijiemeiguodezheizhongxushiyuzhengzhidongjishi,womenbixurenshidao,wulunqizhengqueyufou,zheizhongshehuirenzhizaiduanqineinanyigaibian。 suiranzhongguojiaruwtoduimeiguomouxierenqunqueshichanshengleyingxiang,danhuoyiderenqunyuanduoyushousunrenqun。raner,youyushousunrenqunxiangduijizhong,tamendeshengyinwangwanggengjiaxianglianghezhijie,daozhileyizhongguanganshangdebuduichengxing。xiangbizhixia,huoyirenqunfensanzaigegelingyuhexingye,nanyixingchengtongyideshengyin。yinci,zaixuanjudengzhengzhichanghezhong,shousunrenqundeguandiangengrongyibeifangdaheqiangdiao。

huidaozhongguoguoneilaikan,guokaibiaoshi,jinnianlai,youyufangdichanxingyedediaozheng,zhongguojingjizengzhangzaihendachengdushangyilaiyuzhizaoyetouzi。zhizaoyedekuaisufazhanbujinweizhongguojingjitigongleyoulizhicheng,yedailailechannengdexunsukuozhanghechukoudezengzhang。raner,zheizhongkuaisuzengzhangyejiajulechannengguoshengdewenti。

duiyuchannengguoshengwenti,guokaitichuleyixiliejutidezhengcejianyi。shouxian,zengjianeixushihuanjiechannengguoshengdezhongyaotujing。tongguokuodaguoneishichang,tigaoxiaofeishuiping,keyiyouxiaojianshaoduiqitaguojiadeyilai,tongshiyeyouliyufensanchukoufengxian。

qici,diaozhengchannengshuchufangshiyeshibiyaode。zhongguokeyitongguojiaqiangyuqitaguojiadehezuo,tuidongchannenghezuohegongxiang,shixianhuligongying。tongshi,haikeyiguliqiyejiadajishuchuangxinheyanfatouru,tigaochanpinzhilianghefujiazhi,zengqiangguojijingzhengli。

ciwai,guokaihaiqiangdiaolezhengcexiediaoheguojihezuodezhongyaoxing。geguoyinggaijiaqianggoutongyuhezuo,gongtongyingduiquanqiuzhizaoyedetiaozhan。tongguotuidongmaoyiziyouhuahetouzibianlihua,keyicujinquanqiuzhizaoyedejiankangfazhan。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。