文|侃见财经

dangxiaoliangchengweicheqidehexinkaoliangyinsushi，yiqiexingweidouhuiweiraozhexiaoliangquzuodiaozheng。

zuoweizaochexinshilidelingtouyang，lixiangzai2023nianqudelebiejiacheqinanyipididechengji，danzheizhongyoushibingmeiyoudaoyigejueduizhi，yincijinru2024nianzhihou，xiaoliangdeyaliyijiukunraozhelixiang，erlizuizhongyeweixiaoliangtuoxiele。

4yue22ri，lixiangqichexuanbuquanxidajiangjia——2024kuanlixiangl9jil8/l7bufenchexingjiangjiangjia1.8wanyuanzhi2wanyuan，shangshibujiudelixiangmegatongyangjiangjiale3wanyuan，muqianshoujiaxiajiangzhi52.98wanyuan。

juxi，zheishilixiangqichejinnianlaidiyicigongkaixuanbuquanxijiangjia，youcikejian，lixiangqichedangxiadexiaoshouyaliyouduoda。

quanxijiangjiadangtian，lixiangqichedemeiguyingshengdadie5.57%。genjutongji，budaolianggeyueshijian，lixiangqichedegujiayijiejinyaozhan。

shijishang，suizheshentoulvdetisheng，cheqimuqianmianlindewentiyijingfuzahuale，zaikaohexiaoliangdetongshi，channengguoshengdewentiyeyijingchuxian，biaoxianzuiweimingxiandecheqijiushixinnengyuandelongtouqiyetesila。

kanjiancaijingshulifaxian，kenengdangxialixiangqichezhenzhengdeyalihuoxubingfeixiaoliangxiahua，ershixiaoliangxiahuahouchuxiandechannengguosheng。zhidezhuyideshi，jinniannianchulixiangqichedingxiale80wandexiaoliangmubiao，weilenenggoumanzuxiaoshoudexuqiu，qitongshiyezaibuduankuochongchanneng。

juzhongguoqiyejiadebaodao，weiyujiangsushengchangzhoushiwujinqudelixiangqichezhizaojidi，pingjunmei40miaojiunengzaohaoyiliangche，meixiaoshi90liangxinchecongshengchanliushuixianxiaxian，richanliangkeyidadao1800liang。ruoanzhao1800liang、quannianwuxiulaijinxingjisuan，yinianxialai，manchanqingkuangxiagaizhizaojididechannengkeda65.7wanliang。

产能逐渐过剩？

2023nian，lixiangqicheyilukuangben，quannianxiaoliangtupo37wanliang，chengweizaochexinshilidelingtouyang。

erzhichenglixiangdebuduankuangbiaode，zeshibeihoubuduankuochongdechanneng。

zaijieshouzhongguoqiyejiazazhidecaifangshi，lixiangqichegongyinglianfuzongcaimengqingpengjiucengbiaoshi：“womendejiezoudoushichuizhipapo，fuyaozhishang；fabujishangshi，shangshijishangliang，shangliangjigaozhiliang，shiyaochuizhiwangshangchongde。”kejianqiduilixiangqichechannengdezixin。

neime，lixiangqichedeshijichannengdaodishiduoshaoni？

suiran，qibingweizaicaibaozhongjutitoulu，dangenjumeitibaodao，jinchangzhoushengchanjidizai2023nianjiujiaofule37wanliang；erqie，zaijinniannianchu，lixiangqichedingxiale80wanliangdexiaoliangmubiao，ancituisuan，ruonenggouquanbushixianjiaofu，lixiangqiche2024niandechannenghuizai80wanliangyishang。

ercong2023niandecaibaoshuju，yenengtuiduanchulixiangqichedechannengqueshibuduandizaikuoda，conglixiangdecaibaodangzhongwomenyenengkuitanyier。

genjucaibaoxianshi，jiezhi2023niansijidu，lixiangqichedewuye、changfangjishebeihejiwei157.5yi；erzai2021nianshi，lixiangqichedewuye、changfangjishebeihejibuguo44.98yi，duanduanliangnianshijian，wuye、changfangjishebeijiufanlechaoguo3beile；ciwai，2023nianlixiangqichedeqitafeiliudongzichan28.02yi，feiliudongzichanqitaxiangmuwei59.39yi，erzai2020nian，zheiliangxiangfenbiewei3.212yihe12.77yi。

chengran，ruguo2024niandelixiangqichechannenglaman，qiejiaofuwanquanshixian，neimelixiangkendinghuizaishangyicenglou。danshicongdangxialixiangdejiaofuyijizaimegazaoyuhuatielu，jinnianjiaofumubiaoshixiannandujiangfeichangda。

genjugonggaoxianshi，jinnian3yuefen，lixiangqichegongjiaofu28984liangxinche，tongbizengzhang39.2%；yijidu，lixiangqichegongjijiaofu80400liang，tongbizengzhang52.9%，suiranxiaoliangtongbidoushidafuzengzhang，dananzhaoyijidu8wanliangjisuan，quannianxialailixiangqichedezongjiaofuliangyecai32wanliang。anzhaokaipian，duiyulixiangqichechangzhouzhizaojidichannengdejisuan，zaiquannianwuxiuqiemanchantiaojianxia，gaizhizaojididechannengkeyidadao65.7wanliang，jisuanxialai，changzhoujididechannengliyonglvhaibudaowucheng。

congbiaomianshangkan，lixiangqichedezuidayalilaizixiaoshouduan，danshizeyalilaizichannengduan，bijingshengchanxiandoushiyaozhichude，ruguochannengmingxianguosheng，meinianjinzhejiufeiyongjiuhuichanshengbuxiaodesunshi，zaichannengguoshengdeyalixia，lixiangqicheweibianliangyehuizengduo。

理想的“难题”

ruhetizhenxiaoliang，shidangxialixiangqichebudebukaolvdewenti。

bijing，xiaoliangqilaile，cainenghuanjieshengchanduandeyali。

ciqian，zaigongkaichanghezhong，chuangshirenlixiangcengduocibiaoshibuhuijiangjia。tacheng，lixiangzaizuoxiangxidezhangyuanguihuahedingjiadeshihou，jiuyijinggenjumeiyigechexingsuozaidejibiehechicun，jiangjiagedingzaiduiyingjiagequjianlizuiyoujingzhenglidejiaweishang，jiagexiangshangfudonghexiangxiafudongdouhuiyouwenti。

dancicilixiangzhongyukaishixiangshichangqufu。

zaibencijiangjiazhiqian，lixiangqichehaituichuleqishoujiawei24.98wanyuandel6chexing，cijuyitufugaizhongduanshichang，danxiaoguobingbulixiang。

genjulixiangqicheguanfanggongbudeshujuxianshi，lixiangl6shangshi72xiaoshidadingshuliangchaoguo10000liang，zheiyangdexiaoliangshujuzhinengsuanshizhongguizhongju，bijingzuoweijingzhengduishoudewenjiem7，zaishangshihoudanridadingchaoguo7000liang，yigeyueleijidadingdingdanshenzhitupo6wanliang，xiangbizhixia，lixiangl6xianranshaoxunyichou。

huoxushilixiangl6yebuzuyizhengjiulixiangqiche，suoyilixiangqichecaixuanzelequanxidajiangjia，danshi，jiangjiaduiyulixiangqicheeryan，qidaodezuoyongxiangdangyouxian。

muqian，lixiangqichezuidadewentibingfeizaiyujiage，ershi20wanzhi50wanjiagequjiandecheqitaiyongjile，danshichangkongjianyijingfeichangxiaole，yincimeijiadoumaozulejingquzhengqucunliangdekehuziyuan，lirujinnianxiaoliangxiangdangbucuodelingpaoqiche，qimofangdeduixiangjiushilixiangqiche，quniansanjidutuichudec10，haocheng“banjialixiangl7”，waiguanleisi、neishileisi，danshijiagezhiyoulixiangl7deyiban；ciwai，xiangbiyadidetengshi、zhangchengqichedeweipai、qiruidexingjiyuandeng，zheixiechuantongcheqimiaozhundedoushilixiangqiche，jibianlixiangqichejiangjiazaiduo，yehennandangdezhuzheixiecheqidejiagezhan。

duiyulixiangqicheeryan，jiangjiajixiaoliangdailaidetizhenzhongjiushiduanzande，qizhenzhengzhidesikaodehaishiruhezaijingzhengjiliededahuanjingxia，yijiubaochizishendeyoushi，chengrumeitisuoshuodeneiyang，dangyouxiudechanpindingyizhujianbeijingzhengduishouzhuiping，lixiangzaimuqianjieduanhaimeiyoutuichuzugounengxingchengjingzhengbileidexinjishuhuozhexinchanpin。