文|价值星球Planet 悦芹

编辑|唐飞

yiqinghoushounian，qichexingyeyinglaijudatiaozhan。

shangyou，dianchiyuancailiaolinsuantielichannengguosheng，zhinengzuojia、dianchi、zidongjiashidengxinjishujidaitupo；zhongyou，jiagezhanneijuan，xiaolianggenbushangchanliang，xingyexipaihuojiangzaiweilaijinianchixushangyan；xiayou，chezhuangbisuikuaisuxiajiang，danliyonglvbuzu10%，dakaidahedixinjijiankuozhangyebeipohuiguilengjing。

rongzishichangshangyinengkuisiyier。jingliguoqujiniande“yemanzengzhang”hou，2023nianqichexingyebinggoujiaoyizongjinexiadie31%zhi2479yirenminbi，binggoujiaoyishuliangruijian18%。

jutilaikan，rengjiushiremenxifensaidaodedaozibendeqinglaiheguanzhu：3jiaguobaiyijiaoyilaizisaidaolingpaozhe、dianchi/zidongjiashilingyujiaoyishuzhanshangyoubinggouanlijin50%、diandonghuaqichejiaoyishujijineshuangshuanglingpaozhengcheshichang……

buguo，ruhejiangyoushizhuanhuaweishengshi，shi2024nianhenggenzaixinnengyuanqichechanyeliansuoyouqiyemianqiandeyidaonanti。

01 百花齐放，竞相构筑竞争壁垒

genjupuhuayongdao《2023nianzhongguoqichexingyebinggouhuodonghuigujiweilaizhanwang》，2023nianqichelingbujianqian10dajiaoyizhong，laizidiandongjizhinengjiashixiangguanlingyudeqiyechaoguo8bi，yunhuikeji、kedali、ganfenglidiandengsaidaolongtoujunhuodelechaoguo20yirenminbiderongzi。

congzijinliuxianglaikan，diandonghua、zhinenghuarengshixinnengyuanqichedezhuxuanlv。

muqian，xinnengyuanqichezhuyaocaiyongdedianchizhuyaofenliangzhong：sanyuanlidianchihelinsuantielidianchi，qianzhezhuyaoyongyuzhangxuhangdezhonggaoduanchexing；houzhezeyinmidujiaoxiaochangjianyuzhongdiduanchexingshichang。

shangwentidao，linsuantielichannengguosheng，qianliangniandekuaisukuozhangmaixialejiageyinhuan——qijiagecong2023niannianchude60wan/dundiezhiniandide10wan/dun。

buguo，channengguoshengbingbunengzuaidianchijishudeyanfatupo——nalizidianchi、gutaidianchizhengchengweidianchiqiyehecheqijiaozhudexiayidaidianchijishu。quniandi，baokuoningdeshidaizaineideduojiadianchichangshangjunfabulenalizidianchi、jixinghestoredotgongtongyanfabangutidianchi，jilijituanheweilanxinnengyuanyichenglizhuanzhituanduiyanfagutaidianchi。

dianchizhiyuxinnengyuanqichedezhongyaoxingbuyaneryu。leijunzaifabuxiaomiqicheshiyitandao，zaixinnengyuandianchinenghaofangmian，xiaomikenengxuyao3-5niancainengzhuishangtesila；yulaiceolibinzaizhibolishicexincheshijilicheng，zhuanzuxingyejiyonghudeguanzhudu……

yudianchijishubutong，zidongjiashireduzhengzhujiantunqu——l4jibiedegaojiezidongjiashishangyehuananyiluodi，diejiawaiburongzihuanjingbianhua，xingyezhengmairuyigelengjingqiyutuichaoqi。

jinnianlai，bushaotoubuzidongjiashigongsixiangjijinxingzhanlveshousuo，congl4jiangweizhil2huol3，shituwajueboche、matoudengtedingchangjingxiazidongjiashideyingshou。

buguo，l4、l5zidongjiashizhendeyaobukejima？

4yuechu，masikexuanbutesilajiangyu8yuefaburobo taxi（zidongjiashichuzuche）。yishijiqiqiancenglang，xingyekunyuzidongjiashishangyehuashi，masikezaicixiyinletouzirendemuguang。

beiguoneiwangyouchengwei“mutoujie”decathie woodrenwei，tesilagujiajianghuizai2027niandadao2000meiyuan。duibitesilamuqiandegujia，yiweizhetesilayaozaiweilai3nianfange10duobeicainengdadaozheigeyuqi。

muqian，tesiladazaidefsd（zidongjiashiruanjian）banbenyijingdadaov12.3.3。conghaiwaiyonghushijialaikan，xiangbiyuzhiqiandezidongjiashi，deyiyuwuxujingguoaishibiehoujingchengxujuecezhixing，tesilakanqilaigengxiangshi“ren”zaijiashile。

congjishushangkan，muqianrengmeiyourenheyigecheqidezidongjiashinengjiejintesiladeshuiping。

02 加速整合，活下来才有希望

zhengchesaidaoshang，bushaoqiyemianlinyewuzhuanxing，xingyejingzhengjiajudengtiaozhan，jiaoyijinehepingjunjiaoyiejunyousuoxiajiang。

buguo，xinnengyuanqichedetouziredurengzaiyanxu。

jutidaoyingyongchangjing，xinnengyuanchengyongchejishangyongchebilikuaisushangzhang，shangyongchejiaoyijinejiao2022nianzengzhangjin4bei；zhinengshangyongcheshichangjiaoyijinejiaoshangyinianfanbei。

qunian，zaixinnengyuangouzhibutiezhongzhidebeijingxia，baokuobiyadi、dazhongdengshiduojiacheqifenfenxuanbuduixinnengyuanqichezhangjia。raner，zuoweishixianyinglidewailaishili，tesilaxuanbuduiqixiamodel 3hemodel yliangkuanchexingjiangjia，zaicidianranguoneixinnengyuanqichedejiagezhan。jinnianyilai，biyadi、wuling、zhangan、nazhadengduojiacheqifenfenxuanzediaojiagenjin。

lingyibian，zhongguobentu “erdai”cheqi（ruguangqiaian、dongfenglantu、shangqizhijideng）yichixufali，xiaolianghuodedafutisheng；eryihuawei、xiaomi、meizuweidaibiaodeshoujichangshangyekuajiejiaruzaochexinglie，jiajuleqicheshichangde“jingzhengchengdu”。

zhidezhuyideshi，suirangejiadoujiarujiagezhanzhong，danchuletesila、biyadihelixiangchengweisanjiayinglicheqiwai，qiyujibenchuyu“maiyitaikuiyitai”degangajiongjing。

wufayingshou，jiuzhinengtongguo“huayuan”，zhiyaogongsihainengshunlirongdaozi，qiyejiuhainengbaochixianjinliucunxujingying。cong2023nianlaikan，kuajingbinggoujiaoyiweizhengchezhizaoshichangtigonglejudadekongjian，qirui、yulai、lingpaodengcheqijunhuodelelaizihaiwaiderongzi，weiqiye“huoxialai”tigongkenengxing。

suizheweilaijinianjiagezhanjinyibuyanxu，yixiejibenmianjiaoruodecheqidagailvhuiyinweijingzhengyaliguodaerkaishichuxianjingyingshangdewenti，shichanghuojiangjinyibuxiangtoubujizhong。

03 合作共赢，解决投产矛盾

chongdianzhuang、huandianzhanzuoweixiayoushichangzuishouguanzhudeyigesaidao，suizhexinnengyuanqicheshichangguimojibaoyouliangdeshangsheng，xinnengyuanjijianyeshibeishoutouzirenguanzhudechonger。

jiezhi2022nian12yue，quanguoxinnengyuanqichechongdianzhuangbaoyouliangdadao520.90wantai，jiao2018nianmobaoyouliang77.68wantaidejichushangzengzhang6.7bei。

buguo，guoqujiniandejijiankuozhang，yemaixialebushaowenti。

shujuxianshi，jiezhi2022niandi，zhongguodechezhuangbi（xinnengyuanqicheyuchongdianzhuang）wei2.5:1，ouzhouwei15:1，meiguowei17:1，yujizai2025niandadao2:1，2030nianshixian1:1。

bukefouren，chongdianzhuangdekuozhangqueshijiasulezhongguoxinnengyuanchanyedefazhan，yeshizhongguoxinnengyuanqicheshangyehuazaiquanshijiequdelingxiandeyidayinsu。buguo，xianjieduanguoneichongdianzhuangdeyouxiaoshiyonglvbuzu10%，touchanyanzhongshiheng，bushaoqiyeyexuyaotongguorongzizaoxueercunhuo。

chulezhuyingchonghuandianyewudeqiye，ruyulai、jilidengcheqiyizaijiansheqixiadechongdianzhuang。xuyaochengren，chufadianshihaode。danshi，chongdianzhuangkeguanshangshoudaochengbentouruda，huibenzhouqizhangdengzhiyue，zaijiagezhanheyingshoukuisundebeijingxia，chongdianzhuangbujubiandeweimiaoqilai。

duici，xingyeyezaifashengzhuanbian——yuelaiyueduocheqikaishihezuochonghuandian，gongjiangongyong，tishengchongdianzhuangdeshiyonglv，jiasuchongdianwangluodeshengtaibuju。

qunian7yue，tongyong、baoma、bentian、xiandai、qiya、benchihestellantisdengqijiacheqibiaoshi，jihuatouzizhishao10yimeiyuanchengliyijiayongyujianshediandongqichechongdianwangluodegongsi，yuqidao2030niananzhuangzhishao3wangekuaichongzhuang。

duiyurenheyijiaqiyeeryan，chongdianzhuangdounanyizuodaoyijiaduda，hezuogongying，huoxucaishixindechulu。

04 扬长避短，出海寻觅新增量

qianbujiu，meiguocaizhangyelun（janet l. yellen）fanghuashiduocibiaodazhongguoxinnengyuanchannengguoshengdewenti，beiyeneiguangfanyilun。

zhakanzhixia，yuanliaochannengguosheng，qichegongdayuqiu，jiagezhanjiuzhannanxi，zheiyiyanlunsihubingwumaobing。danshi，womenyekeyihuangesilu，conglingyigejiaodulaikanchannengwenti。

2023nian，quanqiuxinnengyuanqichexiaoliangtupo1500wanliang，zhongguoxinnengyuanqichexiaoliangda930wanliang，zhanbida60%。chukoufangmian，zhongguochengweiquanqiudiyidaqichechukouguo，quanqiuchukouqicheshuliangchaoguo500wanliang，xinnengyuanqichechukouliangjiangdadao120wanliang，tongbizengzhang83.5%。

ruofangyanquanqiu，zhongguoxinnengyuanchannengbujinmeiyouguosheng，fanershiquanqiutuijinxinnengyuanfazhandeyidazhuli。

duiyushenxianjiagezhandecheqieryan，jiranguonei“juan”，buruquhaiwaixunzhaoxinzengliang。

congbujulaikan，ouzhouhedongnanyashimuqianxinnengyuanqichezhuyaomiaozhundeliangdashichang。taiguozhengchengweizhongguocheqizaidongnanyazhugongdezhendi，rubiyadi、nazha、zhangcheng、shangqidengcheqidouyiguanxuanzaitaiguojianshengchandiandongqichedechangfang；yulai、xiaopengzeshijiangmuguangmiaozhunouzhou，zaiouzhouduogeguojiajunsheyouxiaoshoumendian。

zhanzaidangxiadeshijianjiedian，xinnengyuanchuhairengshixiangdangguangkuodelanhai，danshijianchuangkouyejianghuibiandegengjiajinzhang——xinnengyuanlinianzhengzaiquanqiushengxing，gediqudemaoyibaohuzhuyikonghuitaitou。

yioumengweili，qunian9yue，oumengweiyuanhuizhuxifengdelaien（ursula von der leyen）cengtichuxiwangduijinkouzhongguodediandongqichefaqifanbutiediaocha，hexinyuanyinshizhongguodiandongchezaiouzhoushichang“fanlan”，huiduiouzhoudiandongchexingyegouchengweixie。ruocijuzhendeluodi，zhongguoxinnengyuancheqimianlindeshuilvkenenggaoda10%huoyishang，zengjiachuhaidechengben。

shujuxianshi，jinnianqianlianggeyue，zhongguoduioumeng27gechengyuanguodediandongqichechuhuolianglvegaoyu75600liang，tongbixiajiang19.6%。

shuangzhongyalixia，yinfaleyeneiduiyuzhongguoshichang“diandongchegudao”dedanyou。shishishang，suizhequanqiuqihoubiannuan、xinyilunkejigeminghechanyebiangejiasu，dandiandonghua、zhinenghuaheditanhuayichengweidangqianqichechanyefazhanxinqushi，xinnengyuanqicheshishijiegeguotuidongjingjishehuilvseditanzhuanxingfazhandebiranxuanze。

zaibinggouxiangtoubujulong，jingwaiipofanghuandebeijingxia，zhongguoxinnengyuanqichexingyepoqiexuyaozishendezaoxuenengli。zhaodaojishubilei、niukuiweiyingyijishichangzengliangdepinghengdian，fouze，qiyedenglaide，zhihuishipochanhebeishougou。

huangesilu，xipaizhongzuyeshilingyizhongxingshidechuqing。