文|巨潮 谢泽锋

编辑|杨旭然

yizexingyewenjiandegongbu，yinbaolelidiangudeyicizhangtingchao。

5yue8ri，gongxinbufabuleduilidianchixingyedeguifantiaojianjigonggaoguanlibanfa（zhengqiuyijiangao），qizhongzhichuyaoyindaoqiye“jianshaodanchunkuodachanneng”dexiangmu，beichengzuozuolidianxingyede“gongjicegaige”。

zaixinnengyuanqichechanyededaidongxia，lidianchanyeliangangjingliguoyilunzhaliedezhouqiyanbian。xiayouxiaoshouhuobao，zhongyoudianchigongbuyingqiu，shangyou“xieliweiwang”，shenzhichuxianle“zhengcheqiyeweidianchiqiyedagong，dianchiqiyeweilikuangqiyedagong”dezhuangkuang。

danzheiyangdejumianbingweiweichiduojiu，suizhelikuang-dianchiqiyefengkuangkuochan，donglidianchiyou“gongbuyingqiu”zhuanwei“gongguoyuqiu”，channengguoshengyuyanyulie。

guoneitansuanlijiagecong60wan/dundelishigaowei，yiludiepo9wanyuan/dunguankou，muqianweichizai11wanyuan/dunzuoyou，jibenhuidaole2021niandeshuiping。

zhouqixingyedediguyaochixuduojiu，tongchangdoushihennanpanduande，danrujinyijingyourenxuanzenishijiama。5yue7riwan，likuanglongtouganfengliyejihua25yiyuanjiacanghaiwailihuishikuangxiangmu，beiwaijiekanzuoshilizhouqifanzhuandeyigejixiang。

muqian，xuduojigouyuce2025niantansuanlirengshixiangongdayuqiu，jiagehuishengyaodao2025nianyihou。danxingyecanyuzhe——youqishizhongyaocanyuqiyedejuece，duiyuxingyezhouqidepanduanqishigengweizhongyao。

dangqianhaiwaiduogelikuangxiangmuxuanbutingchanhuojianchan，suizhechannengchuqingjiasu，xingyetuolizhouqidibudeshijianjiediansihuyijingjianxingjianjin。zhouqihuizhongfu，danbuhuijiandandezhongyan。

逆势加码

xingyetoubuqiyedadongzuo。

youyulijiajisuxiazhui，jinnianyijidu，likuangqiyecong“xiaotiantian”bianwei“niufuren”。

likuangbankuaizhongde19jiaagushangshigongsi，qizhongyou6jiajinglirunkuisun。tianqiliyeyincangudezhilihuagongkuangyegongsi(sqm)xianrushuiwususongcaijue，yijichanpinmaolidafuxiajiang，yijidubaokui38.97yiyuan。ganfengliye、shengxinlinengyeweinengxingmian，fenbiekuisun4.39、1.44yiyuan。

dantianqiliyedeyejikuisunbingweiyingxiangganfengliyemaikuangdejiezou。genju5yue7ridegonggao，ganfengguojinichizi3.427yimeiyuan（yue25yiyuanrenminbi）xiangleo lithiumshougoumali lithiumshengyu40%guquan，yiqudegoulaminalihuishikuangxiangmuquanbuguanliquan。

mali lithiumgongsiyouleo lithiumheganfengguojihezichengli，mudejiushiweilekaifaweiyufeizhoumalinanbudegoulaminalihuishikuang。gaikuangchanyongyoulikuangshi2.11yidun，tuiceyanghualizongliang289wandun，zhehetansuanlidangliangyue714wandun。

ganfengliyecengliangcihejizengzi2.03yimeiyuan（yue15yiyuan）maixialemali lithium 60%deguquan，jiashangcicishougou，yujihaozi40yiyuannazheiyilihuishikuangxiangmu100%suoyouquan，kejianganfengliyeduiyugaixiangmudejuexin。

chucizhiwai，jinnianyilai，ganfengliyehaijiaqiangleyuaodaliyalikuangshengchanshangpilbaradehezuo；niyibuchaoguo7000wanmeiyuanrengouagentingkuangchankantanqiyepgcozengfagufen；yupilbarqianxiadadan，houzhexiangganfengliyedelihuishigongyingliangcongciqiande16wandun/nianzengjiadaoweilaisanniande31wandun/nian。

keyikanchu，xingyediguqideganfengliyeshitujixuhangshiziyuanliang，yilakaihejingzhengduishoudejuli。muqian，gongsiyongyouagentingyanhuliziyuan、aodaliya、mali、aierlandengdidelihuishiziyuan，yijimoxigedeliniantudengziyuan，hejiquanyiziyuanliang4808wandunlce（tansuanlidangliang），jinciyusqm，paizaishijiedier。

lingyifangmian，tishengziyouziyuanliang，gengyouliyujinxingyitihuashengchan，jiangdikaifachengben，jiaqiangkangbodongfengxiandenengli。

ganfengliyeshiquanqiuweiyitongshiyongyoulushuitili、kuangshitilihehuishoutilideqiye，guanchuanshangyoukaifa、zhongyouliyanjijinshuliyelian、xiayoudianchizhizaojihuishoudegongsi。

erqie，qianghuaguquanbili，youqishiquanziyongyou，keyidafutishengziyuanbaogongnengli，tongshijiangdihaiwaifalvfengxian。

tianqiliyeyejibodongrucijulie，guiyinjiuzaiyuhaiwailiangdakuangchanqiye。yifangmian，tianqiliyesuiyongyousqm 22.16%deguquan，weiqidierdagudong，danjintongguocanguxiangyougufenzengzhihefenhongquan，bingwushikongquan。

tianqiliyebujinyinweiguowangdeshuiwuwentidafukuisun，gengyoukenengyinsqmdangqiantuijinde“gongsiheying”jihua，tongshiquanqiuzuidayanhuatakamaxiangmudeshouyi，zheiduitianqiliyewuyishiyigezhongdadaji。

lingyifangmian，shougoudewenfeierdelikuang，yinqianjidujinxingdingjia，daozhiyuancailiaochengbenyuanchaoguochanpinshoujia，tianqiliyegoujinlikuangjinxingyelian，dan “mianfenbimianbaogui”daozhiyelianhuanjiedechengbenjisubiaosheng，lunweihaiwaizigongsidedagongzi。

zheiyiqiedouheqiduihaiwaigongsikongzhiquanbugouyouguan，yinci，ganfengliyeyu100%shougoumalikuangchan，yeshitizhongzhiyi。

供需错配

gongxushiyingxianglikuangjiagezoushidejichu。

libeikanzuoxiageshidaide“baiseshiyou”，yidanchuxiankaifapingjing，jiuhuiyingxiangdaoyigeguojiadenengyuanmingmai。

guoqusannian，youyuxiayouxinnengyuanqichexiaoliangbaozeng，shangyoulikuangjiagechuxianleshishijibiedebodong，shenkeyingxianglelichanyelian。

keyishuo，gongxushiyingxianglikuangjiagezoushidejichu。2023niankaishi，yinqianqizibenfengkuangyongru，tansuanlichannengjisushifang，danxiayouxuqiuquebingweichuxiantongbukuozhangdequshi，daozhigechanyeliandouchuxianle“gongdayuqiu”dejumian。lijiayiluxiadie，jihumeiyoushenmedikang。

yidonglidianchiweili，gongxinbushujuxianshi，2023nianquanguolidianchizongchanliangchaoguo940gwh，tongbizengzhang25%；donglixingchanliang675gwh，danzhuangjiliang（hanxinnengyuanqiche、xinxingchuneng）jin435gwh，yicicesuan，channengguoshenglvzai36%zuoyou。

shangyoulikuangyishitongyangdejumian，juxingzhengqihuotongji，2023nianquanqiutansuanlichanneng101.7wandun，shijixuqiuwei97.2wandun，guosheng4.5wandun。

muqian，gedajigouduiweilailiangnian“gongguoyu”detaishicunzaiyizhiyuqi，antaike、dongwuzhengquan、xingzhengqihuodengrenwei，2024nianlidianchanyexuqiuzengzhangfanghuanyishidagailvshijian，liziyuanguoshengliangyuezai20-25wandunlce，2025nianguoshengzhuangkuangshenzhihuijinyibujiada。

xuqiuduan，xinnengyuanqichehechunengzhanjuliziyuanxiaohaoliangdeqicheng，shilikuangxuqiuzuidadelianggelingyu，bawozhuzheilianggelingyudebianhua，jibenjiuzhangwolelijiadezoushi。

2023nian，woguoxinnengyuanqicheshentoulvyijingchaoguo30%，zengsufanghuanbeirenweishiheliqiebixude。ganggangguoqude4yuefen，xinnengyuanqichexiaoliangwei85wanliang，tongbizengzhang33.5%；1-4yue，wanchengxiaoliang294wanliang，tongbizengzhang32.3%，shentoulvshangshengdao32.4%。danzengsubiqunianjiangdile5.5gebaifendian。

chunengrengchuyukuaisuzengzhangjieduan，qunian，zhongguochunenglidianchichuhuo206gwh，tongbizengzhang58%，danyouyuqizaizhenggelidianchiyingyongzhongdezhanbibuzu20%，duanqineiwufaladongliziyuanxuqiudedaguimobaofa。

ciwai，woguoliyanqiyegaoduyilaijinkou，kuangshijiesuanjizhizhouqijuyouzhihouxing，daozhikuangshidediejiasuduyuanyuanbujiliyanjiagedexiaxingsudu，zheiyejiushitianqiliyeweihehuichuxianweizigongsiwenfeierde“dagong”deqingkuang。

muqianwoguo40%detansuanliqiyecaigouaokuanghefeikuang，qieduoshuqiyebingweidatongyitihuabuju，shangyoukaifachengbenduiyejiyingxiangjida。duibilaikan，ziyoulikuangqiyechengbenyuandiyuwaicai。

yinci，goujianchanyelianyitihuayijijiaqiangziyuanzijilv，shilikuangqiyetishengkangfengxiannenglideliangbanfu。zaiquanqiusuoyoudeliziyuangouchengzhong，yanhushizuizhuyaodexingshi，eryanhutilidechengbenyezuidi。

ganfengliyeqixiadecauchari-olarozyanhuxiangmushiquanqiuchengbenzuididetilixiangmu，chengbenjinyue4wan/dun，

wanquanzijideyiqi4wanduntansuanliyijingyuquniannianzhongtouchan。

butongdechengben，yedaozhiqiyemianduixiangtongdexingyexiaxingzhouqi，chengxianchubutongdebiaoxian，youxieqiyeyejijuyourenxing，danyouxieqiyezeshihulenghure，bodongjulie。

不会简单重演，历史绝不会简单的重演

gongxushiyingxianglikuangzhouqijinchengdejichu，dangongxubenshenchuzaichixudebiandongzhizhong：

xuqiufangmian，shougeguoxinnengyuancijizhengce、youjiabodong、chongdianzhuangdengjichusheshiyingxiang；gongjice，gedakuangshangyehuigenjuzijidepanduanjinxingshousuohuokuozhang。

zhouqihuizhongfu，danlishijuebuhuijiandandezhongyan。

tansuanlixingyejinglilianglunniuxiongxili，shichanghennanbaituoduishangyilunzhouqideguyourenzhi。duiliziyuangongjidepandingbuyingzhitingliuzaidingliangweidu，gongjiyezhishijieguo，gengzhongyaodeshiweiguancengmianqiyejia、kuangchanjiaduichanyequshipanduanerzuochudejuece。

quniandikaishi，yuelaiyueduodekuangshantongguotingchan/jianchanlai“baojia”。

aozhoulikuangshanmtfiniss xuanbujianchan，bingzantingyuanqizibenkaizhi、qiezantingyuankuangkaicai；greenbushesjiangchanliangsuojian10-20wandun;cattlinxiaxiujinnianxiaoliangzhiyin，core lithiumzantinglefennisilikuangdecaikuangzuoye。

liyezuidayunyingshangyabaojihuachushouchiyoudeliontown resourcesgufen，bingfangqizaixiaodaliyajianzaodisitiaolijiagongshengchanxian。coredezhuyaokehubaokuotesila、yahuajituanyijiganfengliyedeng；liontown resourcesshiaodaliyazuidadelikuangyunyingshangzhiyi，yeshitesila、futedezhongyaogongyingshang。

aozhoudangqianquanqiudiyidaliziyuanlaiyuandi，aozhougongyinglequanqiu47%、zhongguo55%delikuang。aozhoukuangshangdejuecehendachengdushangyingxiangzhexingyezhouqiqushi。

butongyuzhizaoye，tansuanlidebenzhihaishikuangye。leisiyusaasgongsi，kuangyetouziqianqixuyaodaliangzibentouru，erwushijixianjinliuru，xintouchanxiangmuzaishouxianjinxiangduijinzhang，wanjiamenxiwangtongguo“shaoqian”poshijingzhengzhezhinanertui，poshiduishouchuqingyixunqiuzhouqifanzhuan。

danzaidangxiadechanyehuanjingzhong，youyuxiayouxuqiuxiangduiquhuan，aojingkuangjunjiayidiezhi990meiyuan/dun，zaiyim+1fangshijiesuan，shijichengjiaojiagekenenggengdi，zaiciqingkuangxia，lianyabaodouxuyaokaolvqishengchanchengben，huanglunqitachangshang。

zhangqilaikan，xinnengyuanchanyerengyoujudakongjian，danduanqikaoyanzhecanyuzhedezhanlvezhihui。zhongguotansuanliziyuanliangjinzhanquanqiu6%，xiqueziyuanjuyoubukefuzhixing，zhongziqiye“zouchuqu”huoquyouzhidichengbenlikuang（yanhuweizhu）shidashisuoqu。

zheiyejiushiweishenme，ganfengliyehuijiandingderenwei，wulunshichangjiageruhe，qiyerengranyaozhengchangshengchan，shenzhihaiyaoyongganxiazhujixuhaiwaimaikuang——baozhangyuancailiaogongyingshizhongzhongzhizhong。

zaiaozhoukuangshangfenfenjianchan，kuaguojutoujianshaozibenkaizhidebeijingxia，benlunlikuangchuqingzhouqiyiqiaoqiaokaiqi，tansuanlijiagesuihaizaidibuzhefu，danfanzhuanzhouqikenenghuibiyuqidezaoyixiedaolai。

写在最后

“liyanyou60wanyuanyidundezuotian，yekenengyou10wanyuanyidundemingtian。”

duiyudangxiadedigu，liliangbinzaoyouyuqi，xianzaidekuochanbushu，yeyingshijihuazhongdeyibufen。

ganfengliyeshiquanqiudisandalihuahewushengchanshang，jinciyuyabaohesqm，touzideluojilaizishenglvyupeilvzhizheng，likuangnixiangbujudezhongdianzaiyupeilv，dangqianlijiayijingdaoledibuqujian。

nishijiacangbuguangshiqiyecengmianduixiayilunzhouqidechongfenzhunbeinaizhiyujijixiazhu，tongshiyeshichanyecengmianshangquebaolikuanggongjianquandeguojiajibaozhang。