文|侃见财经

2011nian，jiangrenshengbuyuanqianlilaidaomeiguo，xiangyaonaxiamoshadongshangyisijiahpvyimiaodedujiadailiquan。

dangshi，moshadonghpvyimiaohaiweinadaoguoneideshangshixuke，guoneiduiyuhpvyimiaoderenzhiyebuduo，dajiadoubumingbaijiangrenshengweihezheimezaojiuyaozhengqunaxiadujiadailiquan。huitoulaikan，jiangrenshengdexuanzewuyishizhengquede——zhengshiyinweinaxialehpvyimiaodedujiadailiquan，zhifeishengwucaiyoulejintianyimiaojutoudediwei。

2018nian，moshadongdejiujiahpvyimiaohuodeguoneishangshipizhun，zhifeishengwudeyejiyesuizhiyinglaibaofa。

dangnian，zhifeishengwushixianyingyeshouru52.28yiyuan，tongbizengzhang289.43%；shixianjinglirun14.51yiyuan，tongbizengzhang235.75%。suiranbiaoxianyixiangdangliangyan，danzheizhishikaishi，cihou5nian，zhifeishengwudeyingshouzengsufenbie102.5%、43.48%、101.79%、24.83%he38.3%，meiyouyiniandiyu20%de。

henxianran，jiezhuzhejinkoujiujiahpvyimiaozheige“dushi”shengyi，zhifeishengwuguoshanglehaojinianyishiwuyouderizi。buguo，zheibingfeimeiyouhuaichu，youyuzhuanqiantairongyi，zhifeishengwubiandeyuelaiyueyilaidailiyewu——2023nian，dailichanpindeshouruzhanbigaoda98.05%，zizhuchanpindezhanbizhiyou1.94%。

chengran，jiezhudailiyewu“dazhuan”yewukehoufei，danshizairujinjiujiahpvyimiaoshichangzengzhangchuding、guoneiyuelaiyueduoyaoqibujudedabeijingxia，zhifeishengwubeihoudefengxianzhengzaijiju。zaikanqijinliangniandiediebuxiudegujia，zhifeishengwuyijingchile5niandedailihongli，hainengjixuchiduojiu？

“代理红利”接近尾声

conggujiabiaoxianlaikan，shichangduizhifeishengwudeqianjingchongmanleyoulv。

jiezhi5yue21rishoupan，zhifeishengwugujiabaoshou34.27yuan/gu，zongshizhijinwei820yi。

zaizuijinshangzhengzhishudafufandandebeijingxia，zhifeishengwudegujiaqueyijiudiediebuxiu，nianneigujiadiefugaoda43.53%，dafupaoshushichang。erqie，gen2021nianzuigaodian153.06yuan/guxiangbi，zhifeishengwurujindegujiayijingdiequlejiejinbacheng，shizhigengshizhengfachaoguole2800yi。

dangran，shichangdeyoulvbingfeimeiyouyuanyin，yinweizhifeishengwuzheizhonggaoduyilaidailiyewudemoshi，zhengmianlinzhexuqiujiandinghejingzhengjiajuliangdatiaozhan。

xiankanxuqiujianding。genjucaibaoxianshi，zhifeishengwudailimoshadongdehpvyimiaozhuyaofenweisijiahejiujialiangzhong，qizhongjiujiashizhuyaodezengzhangdian。2023nian，moshadongsijiahpvyimiaoquannianpiqianfaliangwei1034.34wanzhi，tongbijianshao26.27%；moshadongjiujiahpvyimiaoquannianpiqianfaliangwei3655.08wanzhi，tongbizengzhang136.16%。

guoqujinian，dailidemoshadongjiujiahpvyimiaoyizhichuyugongbuyingqiudezhuangtai，zhifeishengwuyejieci“tangzhezhuanqian”，buguo，xianzaishichangdegongxuzhuangkuangyijingfashenglebianhua。

genjuhuataizhengquanyanjiusuodetongji，jiezhi2023nian，muqianshangshigongyingdehpvyimiaoyida1.82yizhi，anzhaoquanbusanzhendebilijisuan，fugairenqunchaoguo0.6yiren；eranzhaomeitizhongjingshiyedecesuan，guoneixuqiudetianhuabandagaizai1.6yi-2yirenzhijian，ruomeinianjiezhong0.6yiren，wunianzhihoujiuhuidadaoxuqiudetianhuaban。

zaikanjingzhengjiaju。genjumeititongjideshujuxianshi，guoneibushaodeyimiaoqiyeyezaibujujiujiahpvyimiao，qizhong，youzhe“guochanhpvjiujiadiyigu”zhichengderuikeshengwu，zai3yuefenfabudenianbaoshijiubiaoshi，zhongzuhpvjiujiayimiaorec603deiiiqilinchuangshiyanyiwanchengdi24geyuefangshi；erboweishengwuyanfadejiujiahpvyimiao，zeshiguoneishougejinruiiiqilinchuangshiyandeguochanjiujiahpvyimiao，haiyoukangleweishidejiujiahpvyimiao，muqianyejinrudaoyanfadehouqile。

dangran，muqianguoneijiujiahpvyimiaohaishiyouzhifeishengwuzhudao，dansuizheguochanjiujiahpvyimiaoshangshiyuelaiyuejin，zhifeishengwumianlindetiaozhanyeyuelaiyueda。

压力越来越大

4yue22ri，zhifeishengwupilulezuixindeyijibao。

jucaibaoxianshi，yijiduzhifeishengwushixianyingshou113.96yi，tongbizengzhang2%；shixianguimujinglirun14.58yiyuan，tongbixiajiang28.26%。

lazhangzhouqilaikan，zheiyijingshizhifeishengwulianxudiergejidujingliruntongbixiahuale，congyejiduibizhongbunankanchu，zhifeishengwurujinyiranchuxianlezengzhangpingjing。

zaikanlirunlvshuju，jinnianyijidu，zhifeishengwudexiaoshoujinglilvwei12.79%，xiaoshoumaolilvwei26.05%；erzaiqunianyijidu，zhifeishengwudexiaoshoujinglilvhexiaoshoumaolilvfenbiewei18.19%he30.3%，duibilaikan，jinnianyijiduzhifeishengwudexiaoshoumaolilvhexiaoshoujinglilvdouchuxianlemingxiandexiahua。

shijishang，zuijinlianggejiduzhifeishengwudejinglirunzhisuoyihuixiahua，genqijingyingmoshiyouhendaguanxi。jumeiti“miaotouapp”fenxi，yimiaoxingyeshiqiangxiaoshouxingye，yewudekaizhangenxiaoshoudeqiangruoyouhendaguanxi。zhifeishengwuyongyouguoneitongxingyeguimolingxian、fugaijianquan、shenruzhongduandeyimiaoyingxiaowangluotixi，jiezhi2023niandi，zhifeiyijingfugaiquanguo31gesheng、zizhiqu、zhixiashi，2600duogequxian，30000duogejicengweishengfuwudian，shichangtuanduiguimoyida3990ren。

zaishangmiandeneirongzhongtidao，zhifeishengwudailidesijiahpvyimiaozaiweisuo，jiujiahpvyimiaodefenezaitisheng，zheikeyirangqiyingshoujixubaochizengzhang，danjiujiahpvyimiaodedanjiagenggao，yaoxiaoshoujiujiahpvyimiaoxuyaozhifugengduodexiaoshoufeiyong。lazhangzhouqilaikan，jinnianlaizhifeishengwudexiaoshoufeiyongzhunianpansheng，2020—2023nianxiaoshoufeiyongfenbiewei11.98yi、18.35yi、22.35yihe27.73yi，4nianshijianzhifeishengwuxiaoshoufeiyongyijingfanbei，henxianran，jiushixiaoshoufeiyongyasuolejinglirun。

congmuqianlaikan，zaiguochanjiujiamiaohaimeiyoumianshideqingkuangxia，zhifeishengwuyijingmianlinzhejudadejingyingyali；yidanguochanjiujiamiaomianshi，qingkuangkenenghaihuigengzaogao。

buguo，zheihaibushizuichadeqingkuang，gengrangrendanyoudeshi——qibingmeiyounengliniuzhuanjumian。jinnianlai，zhifeishengwuyezaituozhanyejidedierzengzhangquxian，jiezhimuqian，zhifeishengwude28kuanzizhuyanfachanpinzhong，jin4kuanwanchenglinchuangshiyanhuochuyushenpingzhuangtaizhong，fenbiewei23jiafeiyanqiujunduotangyimiao、dongganrenyongkuangquanbingyimiao、sijialiuganbingduliejieyimiaoheliuganbingduliejieyimiao。

zongshangsuoshu，zaixuqiufanghuanhejingzhengjiajudeyalixia，xianzaiyijinglaidaolezuihoude“shijianchuangkou”，guochanjiujiamiaobububijin，liujizhifeishengwudeshijianyijingbuduole。