文|氨基观察

zaigaodujingzhengdeyiyaoshichanghuanjingzhong，yaopinheyimiaodejiagejingzhengjiliechengdubingbuyayujizhongdailiangcaigousuodaozhidejiangjiafudu。

zheizhongxianxiangzailiuganyimiaoshichangbiaoxiandeyouweimingxian，qifazhanlichengchongmanlexijuxingdezhuanzhe。

sinianqian，liuganyimiaoshichanghaishiyipianlanhai，shaoyourenyujianqirihouhuichengweiyimiaojiederedian。

2019nianzhi2020nianjian，guoneiliuganyimiaoxuqiujizeng，piqianfaliangliannianpansheng，zuigaoshishenzhichuxianlegongbuyingqiudezhuangkuang。

houlai，xinguanmouzhongchengdushangyingxianglexuqiu。suizhexinguansinve，renmendefangkongyishitigao，daikouzhao、qinxishouchenglefangyibiaopei，2021nianliuganhuanbingrenshubuduanxiajiang，liuganyimiaojiezhongrenshuyesuizhijiangdi。2021nian，liuganyimiaopiqianfaliangduanyashixiajiangzhi214.99wanzhi。guoneizhuyaodeliuganyimiaowanjiaruhualanyimiao、jindike、baikeshengwujunshoudaobushaodeyingxiang。

yiqingguankongfangsonghou，liuganyimiaoshichangkaishihuinuan，danliuganyimiaodefazhanguijiquezaiyicichuhusuoyourenyuliao。

jinnian5yue，jiangsushengyimiaojiagediaozhengzhong，guoyaojituanxiashudejigeyanjiusuoshengchandesijialiuganyimiaojiagecongmeizhi128yuanzhoujiangzhi88yuan。

erzai2023nian，beijingjikongzhongxinfeimianyiguihualiuganyimiaocaigouzhong，sijialiuganyimiaozuigaojiahaiyidudadao166yuan/ji。yejiushishuo，yinianshijiansijialiuganyimiaojiageyaozhan。zheizhongjuliedejiagebodongtuxianleshichangjingzhengdecanku。

guoyaojituandejiangjiajucuorutongdaohuosuo，xunsuyinfaleliansuofanying，hualanyimiao、beijingkexingdengfenfengenjin，diaodizijiachanpinjiage，yichangyimiaojiagezhanyouciquanmianzhankai。

zheigujiangjiafengchaobujinjinjuxianyusijialiuganyimiao，xiridegaolirunchanpinruerjiahpvyimiaoyeweinengxingmian，jiageyizaixiadiao。

zaiyiyaoshichangdehonghaizhong，meiyougongyingdejumian，jingzhengshicankude。

01 备受期待的市场

jinianqian，renmenduiliuganyimiaoshichangchongmanchongjing。

qihexinluojizaiyu，guoneiliuganyimiaoshichangdeshentoulvfeichangdi。jiezhi2020nian，guoneiliuganyimiaopiqianfazongliangwei5765wanjici。genju2020nianmoquanguozongrenkou141212wanrenjisuan，jibiandangnianqianfadeyimiaoquanbudedaojiezhong，quanrenqunjiezhonglvyejinwei4.08%。

zheiyijiezhonglvyufadaguojiaxiangbicunzaijudachaju。yimeiguoweili，zai2021zhi2022niandeliuganjijie，6geyuezhi17suiertongjiezhongzhishao1jiliuganyimiaodebiliwei57.8%，18suijiyishangchengnianrendeliuganyimiaojiezhongfugailvwei49.4%，er65suijiyishanglaonianrendeliuganyimiaojiezhongfugailvgengshidadaole73.9%。

cankaoqitaguojia，liuganyimiaodejiezhonglvyexiangdanggao。liru，hanguo、danmai、aierlan、zhili、moxige、yingguodengduogeguojia65suiyishangrenqundeliuganyimiaojiezhonglvdouchaoguole70%。

ruguocanzhaomeiguodechengnianrenquanrenqunjiezhonglv，yi50%laigusuanguoneishichangdeqianli，anzhaozhongguo2022nianmozongrenkou141175wanrenjisuan，suoxudeliuganyimiaojiezhongliangdayuewei7yijici。er2020nianzhiqiandepiqianfalianghaibudaoxuqiuliangde1/10，shuomingguoneiliuganyimiaoshichangrengcunzaijudadezengzhangkongjian。

judadechajuyeyiweizhejudadejinbukongjian。congfazhanqushilaikan，shichangsihuyerenshidaoleshentoulvtishengdeqianli。

zhongguoliuganyimiaojiezhonglvdideyuanyinzhuyaobaokuo：jiezhongyishijiaoruo、chanyegongyingbuzu、xuyaozifeijiezhongdeng。danjinnianlai，suizhexingyedechixufazhan，xuduocengjingdezhiyueyinsuzhengzaizhubugaibian。

jiezhongyishiyouwangchixutigao。gongzhongdegonggongweishengyishiwangwanghuisuizhegonggongweishengshijiandefashengerzengqiang。duiyuliuganyimiaolaishuo，xinguanyiqingkeyishuoshiyigeyouxiaodecuihuaji。liru，hunanshengjikongzhongxindeyanjiurenyuanfenxile2018zhi2021nianxinguanyiqingqianhouhunanshengertongliuganyimiaojiezhongqingkuang，faxianyiqinghouertongliuganyimiaojiezhonglvmingxiantigao，jiezhonggaofengchixushijianyeyousuoyanzhang。

ciwai，yixiedifangzhengfuzhengzaijijituiguangliuganyimiaojiezhong。liru，beijingshizhengfuzai2022nianzhongyangzhuanyizhifuzhongdachuanranbingfangkongxiangmuzhong，caigoulejiazhi7190wanyuandeliuganyimiao200wanzhi，weigaoweirenqunmianfeijiezhong。zhengfudecaigouhemianfeijiezhongzhengcejiangdadajiangdijiezhongzhedejingjifudan，tigaoliuganyimiaodekejixing，cujinjiezhonglvdetisheng。

dangran，kenenglingshichangmeiyouyuliaodaodeshi，qiyedegongyingnenglihuirucichaochuyuqi。

02 供给需求的快速转变

2020nian，liuganyimiaozhisuoyichuxiangongyingjinzhang，bufenyuanyinshiyouyu“paizhao”suoxingchengdeshichangbilei。

zai2020nianzhiqian，huodepizhunshangshidesijialiuganyimiaojinyouhualanyimiaohejindikeshengwudechanpin。guoyaojituandezhangchunsuo、wuhansuoyijikexingshengwusuiranyijingtijiaoleshangshishenqing，danshangweihuodezhengshipizhun。

zheizhonggongyingjinzhangbingfeiyouyulinchuangshiyanzhouqizaochengde。shijishang，congsanqilinchuangshiyandaoshenqingshangshideguochengzhong，jindikeshengwusuoyongdeshijianbudao1nian，qitaqiyezhouqishaozhang，danyedazhixiangtong。

liuganyimiaodejinquezhuyaoyushenpiliuchengdejiezouyouguan。zai2020nianzhiqian，sijialiuganyimiaodeshenpijiezoucunzaibodong，zheidaozhilegongyingjinzhangdejumian。

dancong2020niankaishi，yimiaoshenpiliuchengmingxianjiakuai，congshenqingshangshidaozuizhonghuopidezhouqijibenweichizaiyinianzuoyou。yinci，zhenggeshichangdegongyingliangzaixunsuzengjia。

daomuqianweizhi，guoneiyijingshenpishangshidesijialiuganyimiaoqiyeyijiejin10jia。tongshi，mianduijudadeshichangxuqiu，guoneiqiyewuyizhengzaijiakuaikuodashengchannengli。

liruhualanyimiaoyijingyongyou1yijisijialiuganyimiaodechanneng，jindikeyijingyongyou1000wanrenfendesijialiuganyimiaochanneng，bingzhengzaijianshe3000wanrenfendexinshengchanchejian。baikeshengwuyijingyongyou1440wanzhidongganbipenliuganyimiaodechanneng，bingzhengzaidengdaiyanshou1000wanrenfenbipenliuganjianduhuoyimiao（yetizhiji）deshengchanchejian。

xinqiyedejiaruyijitoubuyimiaoqiyedekuaisukuochan，gongtongdaozhilegongyingliangdedafuzengjia。zaizheizhongqingkuangxia，jiagezhanbiandenanyibimian。hualanshengwucengjingzhichu，zaisijialiuganyimiaolingyu，“renwuwoyou，renyouwoyou”decelve，bingbuxuyaodanxinjiagezhan。

danzaigongyingyuanyuanchaoguoxuqiudeqingkuangxia，shichangdeyanbianhuoxuyechaochulehualanshengwuyuqi。muqian，beijingkexingshengwushidisanjiaxuanbujiangdisijialiuganyimiaojiagedeyimiaoqiye，dankeyiyujian，tabuhuishizuihouyijia。

suizheshichangjingzhengdejiaju，weilaikenenghuiyougengduodeqiyejiarudaojiagediaozhengdexingliezhong。

03 不只是流感疫苗

meiyouzuidi，zhiyougengdidexianxiang，bujincunzaiyusijialiuganyimiao，zaierjiahpvyimiaolingyuyecengshangyan。

yongyoushougehuopishangshideguochanerjiahpvyimiaoxinkening，wantaishengwucengyouguoyiduan“tangzhuan”derizi。

dangshi，gskdeerjiahpvyimiaoquanchengjiezhongfeiyongwei1740yuan。wantaishengwuzuoweihoulaizhe，guoduanfaqijiagezhan。

2020nian5yue，xinkeninghuopishangshi，zuichuqidingjiaweimeizhen329yuan，9suizhi14suinvxingjiezhongliangzhen，quanchengfeiyongwei658yuan；chaoguo14suidenvxingjiezhongsanzhen，quanchengfeiyongwei987yuan。

pingjieguochanjiageyoushi，wantaishengwuqiangzhanlejidadeshichangfene。dansuizheshichangjingzhengdejiaju，jiagezhanzhujianshengji。

2022nian，wosenshengwudeerjiahpvyimiaoshangshi，chengweidierkuanhuopishangshideguochanhpvyimiao。zuoweihoulaizhedewosenshengwu，tongyangcaiyongjiagezhandecelvelaiqiangduoshichangfene。

2022nian5yue，zaijiangsushengdehpvyimiaojingbiaozhong，wosenshengwuyi246yuan/zhidejiagehuodelegaoda22400zhi/pingdezhongbiaoliang。erwantaishengwubingweijiangjia，yimiaozhongbiaojiarengwei329yuan/zhi，yincizhihuodele9600zhi/pingdezhongbiaoliang。

ganshoudaojingzhengyalidewantaishengwu，yekaishilejiangjiazhilv。qunian7yue，wantaishengwuyi116yuan/zhidejiagezhongbiaoguangdongshenghpvyimiaocaigouxiangmu，xiangbi2022nianyizhejiaguoban。mianduimaibudongdeyimiao，wantaishengwujuedingzaicifanji。

jinnian3yuefen，wantaishengwuzhongbiaojiangsushengjin50wanzhiyimiao，danjiajin86yuan。xiangbiqunian7yuezaicidale75zhe。xiangbizuichude329yuan，gengshidale“guzhe”。

buguo，muqianlaikanzheirengbushizuidijia。jinnian5yuefen，wosenshengwucanyuhainanshengzhengfucaigoudezhongbiaojiagewei63yuan/zhi，zaicishuaxinleguochanerjiahpvyimiaojiagedelishixindi。

看起来，二价HPV疫苗的降价螺旋还没结束。而目前来看，有可能进入降价螺旋，又不只有四价流感疫苗和二价HPV疫苗。十三价肺炎疫苗甚至还未完成国产替代dejiujiahpvyimiaodeng，sihuyehuimianlinxiangsidejumian。

04 总结

yimiaolingyudejiagezhanpinfanfasheng，zheibujinshishichangjingzhengjiajudezhijietixian，yeyinfaleduixingyefazhanmoshideshensi。

shengwukejixingyetebieshiyimiaokaifa，tongchangxuyaojudadeyanfatouru、zhangqidekaifazhouqiyijimianduigaodudebuquedingxinghefengxian。zaizheiyangdexingyebeijingxia，qiyeyuanbenyinggaiyikaokejichuangxinlaigoujianhegongguzishendejingzhengyoushi。

raner，dangqiandeerleiyimiaoqueyintongzhihuajingzheng，shidejiagezhanchengweilechangtai。jiagezhansuirankenengduanqineixiyinxiaofeizhe，danzhangqilaikan，bingbuliyuxingyedejiankangfazhanhekechixuchengzhang。guoqu，zaichuangxinyaolingyuyijingchongfentixianleneijuandebiduan。

rujin，zaiyimiaoxingyeruhezouchuneijuan，huoxushimeiyiweicanyuzhexuyaosikaodewenti。