文|连线出行 边城

编辑|陈锋

daodiyaobuyaojiguangleida？

zheigewentiyiduzaiqichexingyeyinqilehendazhengyiyutaolun。shizhijinri，zidongjiashidaodiyinggaizouchunshijuefangan，haishijiguangleidafangan，yeneihaizaizhenglun。

bazheigewentipaodaosuoyoucheqimianqiande，shitesilachuangshirenmasike。

masikeshijiguangleidadejiandingfanduizhe。zaozaijinianqiandetesilazidongjiashirihuodongshang，tajiushuo“renheshiyongjiguangleidadezidongjiashigongsizhudingshibai。”

2022nian，suizheibeo、quanergyxianhoupochan，ousterhevelodynehebing，masikedezheiyipanduansihuzhengzaiyingyan。

jujiaodaozhongguoshichang，zeshilingyifanjingxiang。

zi2020nianyilai，weiraozhinengjiashi，zhongguodexinnengyuancheqimenzouchuleliangtiaobingxingdejishuluxian——congzhinengjiashifuzhuxitongdaomaixianggenggaojibiezidongjiashideguochengzhong，suirantaolunyizhibuduan，danjiguangleidashangchedesuduyemeiyoutingxia。

2022nianbeiyejiepubianshiweijiguangleidaliangchanyuannian。gaishiqicheyanjiuyuanshujuxianshi，2022nian，zhongguoshichangjiguangleidazhuangcheliangdadao11.8wantai。zaidao2023nian，suizhegaojiezhijiajiasuzouxiangpuji，jiguangleidazhuangcheliangyejiejin55wantai，tongbizengsuchaoguo300%。

jiguangleidadejiasushangche，yedaidongleguoneiyipidujiaoshouqiyechengzhangqilai。

an2023niandechuhuoliangpaixinglaikan，xingyeliweijuqiansandehesaikeji、tudatong、sutengjuchuang，hejinadaole87.1%deshichangfene。muqianhesaikejihesutengjuchuangyijingfenbiezainasidake、gangjiaosuoshangshi，tudatongyezaijiasutuijinshangshijihua。

2023年中国激光雷达厂商市场格局，图源山西证券

congmuqiandejieduanlaikan，tamendechuhuoliangzaibuduanshangsheng，jinguanhaiweidaodayingliguaidian，dancongjinnianyijidudecaibaolaikan，tamendekuisunfuduzaimingxianshouzhai，yeyouwanjiajichuleyinglishijianbiao。

yucitongshi，jiguangleidadejiageyezaichixuxiatan。juguolianzhengquancesuan，2024nianyongyuadas（gaojifuzhujiashi）xitongdejiguangleidajunjia，jiangtongbixiadie15.56%zhi3800yuan。

gengdidechengben，yiweizhejiguangleidachanpinyougengdadeshichangkongjian。hesaikejixianglianxianchuxingbiaoshi，jinnian4yue，15wanyuanjiyishangxinnengyuanshichangjiguangleidashentoulvdadaole18.4%，chenggong“kuayuehonggou”，jinrukuaisuzengzhangdequanxinzhouqi，hesaikejiyejiangchixutuidongjiguangleidachanpinzaigaoduanchexing、zhongdiduanchexingliangdashichangfangxiangdeshentou。

duishangshujijiatoubudujiaoshoueryan，yeyiweizhe，tamenyouletongguoguimoxiaoyingtanbochengben，jiasuzouxiangdaguimoshangyehuadejihui。

01 亏损收窄，激光雷达企业们距离盈利不远了？

5yue20ri，jiguangleidatoubuqiyesutengjuchuanggongbulejinnianyijiducaibao。

zaiyingshoufangmian，sutengjuchuangtongbizengzhang149.1%zhi3.61yi；yinglifangmian，yijidusutengjuchuangjingkuisunewei1.307yi，jiao2023niantongqide3.428yishouzhai61.9%，ruobubaokuoyigufenweijichudexinchou、xiangtouzizhefaxingdejinronggongjudegongyunjiazhibiandongheshangshifeiyong，zesutengjuchuangdiaozhenghoujingkuisunwei8410wan，tongbishouzhaile11.5%。

jiuzaisutengjuchuanggongbucaibaodehouyitian，hesaikejiyefabulejinnianyijiducaibao。

caibaoxianshi，yijiduhesaikejiyingshoutongbixiahua16.5%zhi3.6yi，tongshi，hesaikejidejingkuisunyezaitongbishouzhai，shouzhaifuduwei10.01%，jingkuisunewei1.069yi。

hesaikejihesutengjuchuangdaguimojiankuibeihou，shizeshijiguangleidasaidaoshuguangchuxian。

jiguangleidabenzhishangrengshuzhizaoye，guimoyuedajuntanchengbenyuedi。er2022nianzhijin，quanqiuxinnengyuanchexiaoliangbuduanzengzhang，weijiguangleidachangshang，youqishitoubuchangshangdailailejiaodadedingdanzengliang，tuidongjiguangleidajiasushangche。

图源上海证券

jutilaikan，jinnianyijidu，hesaikejijiaofule59101taijiguangleida，jiaofuliangtongbizengzhangle69.7%；qizhongadasjiguangleidadeyiyulixiangdengpinpaidedaidong，jiaofuliangtongbizengzhangle86.1%dadao52462tai，yidingchengdushangmibulerobotaxijiguangleidajiaofuliangtongbixiajiangdequekou。

buguo，youyuadasjiguangleidashoujiadiyurobotaxijiguangleida，yinerrobotaxiyewufanghuanduihesaikejideyingshouzaochengleyidingyingxiang。

ershouwowenjiedengdakehudesutengjuchuang，bansuizhewenjiedengpinpaidedamai，qichuhuoliangzaijinnianyijidushixianlebaofashizengzhang，jiaofuliang12wantai，tongbizengzhangle457.4%；qizhongyongyuadasyingyongdejiguangleidazhuangjiliangyue11.6wantai，bujintongbizengzhangle542.0%，haiyi51.6%deshichangfeneweilieadasjiguangleidazhuangcheliangbangshou。

youyeneirenshifenxicheng，adasjiguangleidajiangbendeguanjianzaiyu“liang”，danggaichanpinshixiandaguimoshanglianghou，qiyeguimohuaxiaoyingjiangriyixianxian——ciqian，didazailiangyizhishizhiyuejiguangleidachangshangyinglidezhongyaoyinsu，erdangchangshangbuxiyijiahuanlianghou，cheqiduijiguangleidadejieshouduhuibiangao，shengchanguimodekuodahuizhutuichangshangzouxiangshangyezhengxunhuan。

womenyekandao，hesaikejihesutengjuchuangdouduigongsideyingliqianjingpoweileguan。hesaikejiyujinengzaijinniansijidushixianyingli，sutengjuchuangzejiangyingkuipinghengdemubiaoshijianshezhizailemingnian。

jichuyinglishijianbiaodediqiyuanyuchongzudedingdan。hesaikejiyiyongyoulaizi18gezhujichanghetier-1kehujin70kuanchexingdingdian；sutengjuchuangyezhanhuole22jiacheqijitier 1de71kuanchexingdeliangchandingdiandingdan。

禾赛科技客户情况，图源禾赛科技官方微信公众号

dangran，tamenzhisuoyinengzoudaojiejinyingli，yidingchengdushang，yeshiyinweiyaduilejishuluxian。jiguangleidaxingyegongrendejishufazhanluxian，shicongjixieshidaobangutaizaidaochungutai。erdaozailimingqiandejiguangleidabizuibeoyishanglaijiujianchizougutaijiguangleidazheitiaojishuluxian，guoyujijindecelveshitahaimeichengdaohuibaoqijiupochanle。

fanzhi，hesaizuichucaiyongdeshijixieshilujing，houfabulehunhegutaijiguangleidaat128hequangutaijiguangleidaft120，zuizhongxingchenglewanzhengdejiguangleidajiejuefangan。shishizhengming，zheizhongjianjinshidecelvegengrongyibeishichangjieshou。

02 降价后，激光雷达的市场会更好吗？

ciqian，jiguangleidazheiyijishuluxianzuihexindezhengyizhiyi，shichengbengaoang。zheiyedaozhi，qianjinian，jiguangleidade“shangche”kongjianyouxian，gengduoshicheqidezhonggaoduanchexinghuidazai。

guojinzhengquanciqianjiucengtongjicheng，2021nianshi，dazailejiguangleidadechexingjiagepubiangaoyu40wanyuan，chezaiqianzhuangjiguangleidadejiagepubianchaoguo5000yuan。

dangshi，yijiaqichezhinengfuzhuxitongdegongyingshangrenshicengxiangmeitibiaoshi，yiliangshoujia15wanyuandeqiche，lingbujiancaigouchengbenbuchaoguo8wanyuan。qizhongdianzidianqixitongyuezhan40%，ji3wanyuanzuoyou，zhinengjiashifuzhuxitongdechengbenzexukongzhizai8000yuanyinei，erjiguangleidayigeyingjianjiujihuyuzhixiangdang，hekuangyoudecheqizaiyiliangcheshanghaibuzhidazaiyikejiguangleida。

buguozaichengbenzheiyizuidadechezhouzhiwai，jiguangleidadeyoushiyiranmingxian。

jiguangleidadegongzuoyuanlishi，tongguogaojingdujulijiancehesanweijianmonengli，weizidongjiashicheliangshibiezhangaiwu、dingweixinxi。yinertabuxiangshexiangtou，jishizaiyewanyenengjiaojingzhunshibiezhangaiwu，ciwai，jiguangleidayebushouyu、xue、wudengtianqixianzhi，zaielietianqixiabishexiangtougenganquan。

2022nianyilai，jiguangleidajinrulechuhuoliangjiasushangshengtongdao，yinweijiagejiangxialaile。

zi2020nianzhi2022nian，sutengjuchuangadaschanpindejunjia，fenbieyuewei2.25wanyuan、1wanyuan、4300yuan。zaidaojinnianyijidu，sutengjuchuangadasjunjiajinyibuxiatanzhiyue2600yuan。

hesaikejiyezaijiasutuichugengdijiagedejiguangleidachanpin。jinnian4yue，hesaikejifabulejiyudisidaixinpianjiagoudechaoguangjiaoyuanjujiguangleidaatx，suiweizhijiegongbuzheikuanjiguangleidadejutijiage，danduociqiangdiao“xingjiabi”，miaozhunleshoujia15wanshangxiadeqichezheiyimubiaoshichang。

zhangyuanlaikan，jiguangleidadejiageyeyouwangchixuxiatan。

图源东吴证券

zuohaoxinpianjichenghua，shijiguangleidachangshangzuizhongyaodejiangbenshouduanzhiyi。suoweixinpianjichenghua，zhideshibachuantongjiguangleidalideshubaigedianziyuanqijianjichengdaojipianxiaoqiaodexinpianshang，jiertongguoxinpianshixianduiyushangbaigejiguangfashe、jieshoutongdaodegaozhiliangkongzhiheyunsuan。

xinpianhuajichenghuadehaochushi，shijiguangleidasuoxudeyuanqijianshuliangdafujianshao，congerjianhualezhuangpeibuzhou，bingshizhijubeizidonghuashengchandeyoushi。jianeryanzhi，xinpianjichenghuatongguojianshaoyuanqijianshuliang、youhuashengchanxiaolvshixianjiangben。

erhesaikejicong2017nianjiukaishiziyanjiguangleidazhuanyongxinpian，meiyidaixinpianyanfadouxiangzhegenggaojichengdudefangxiangyanjin。muqian，hesaiyijinxinglesidaixinpiandekaifa，qizhongdisidaixinpianjiangzai2026nianliangchan。zaixinpianfangmianjianchibuxiedetoururanghesaikejichenggongbajiguangleidadejiagedalexialai。

zheiyeshisutengjuchuangcaiyongdejiangbenfangshizhiyi。ciqiansutengjuchuangceoqiuchunchaozaicaibaoyejihuishangtongyangbiaoshi：“tongguoxinpianhuakaifatidaidengfangshilaijiangdicailiaodechengben。”

zongdelaishuo，jiangjiatuokuanlejiguangleidaqiyedekehuqunti，yincigejiadechuhuoliangsuizhishangsheng。buguo，zheirengbuzuyirangjiguangleidachangshangmengaozhenwuyou，mianduichunshijuedebubujinbi，heqichexingyeyueyanyueliedejiagezhan，tamenhaidejinyibutishengzijiachanpindexingneng、tishengtouruchanchubi。

03 价格不是唯一的武器，激光雷达玩家还在拼技术

congjiagezoushilaikan，jinnianyilai，jiguangleidachanpinzhengjiasumairuqianyuanjijieduan。

zhanzaicheqideshijiaolaikan，zheiziranshiyijianhaoshi，tamenkeyizaigengdijiagedechexingzhongyecaiyongjiguangleida，tishengzhinengjiashinengli。

danzhanzaihesaikeji、sutengjuchuangdenggongyingshangdeshijiao，zheidailaide，shiwufabimiandejingyingyali，hegengjiajiliedeshichangjingzheng。

jiandanlaishuo，tamenxuyaozaiyixialianggecengmianzuohaopingheng。

qiyi，ruhezaituidongjiguangleidajiagejinyibuxiatandejichushang，chixubaochijishuyoushi，zheijuedingdeshi，mianxiangshichangjingzhengshi，tamennengfouzhuazhujiexialaijiguangleidachixushangchedeshichanghongli，chixukuodaguimo；qier，ruhepinghenghaochengbenheshouyi，tishengtouruchanchubi，jinkuaishixianyingli。

muqianjieduan，congchanpinliheshichangyanzhengdulaikan，jiguangleidasaidaoyijingxingchengjiaomingxiandemataixiaoying，hesaikeji、sutengjuchuangdengtoubuchangshang，yijingjubeileyidingdeyoushi。

jinnianshangbannian，hesaikejihesutengjuchuangxiangjifabulexinchanpin。

1yue，hesaikejifabule512xianchaoyuanjujiguangleidaat512，tadazaideshihesaizuixindedisidaiziyanxinpian，keshixian300mibiaozhunceyuan，zuiyuancejudadao400mi，shishichangtongleiyuanjujiguangleidade2bei。erzheiyiweizhedazaileat512decheliangnengzhishaotiqianyibeijulishibiezhangaiwu，congerxitonganquanjueceduole40%yishangdefanyingshijian。

zaidao4yue，hesaikejifabulechanpinatx。

atxdetijixiangjiaoshangyidaisuoxiaole60%，tancejuliquetigaodaole300mi，shichangjiaodadao140°。zheiyiweizhetanenggenghaodirongrudaochedingjiegou，gengzaodibangzhijiacheliangganzhiweixian，tongshizaililunshangyongyikeqianxiangleidaqidaoliangcebumangleidadezuoyong。

lingyibian，tongyangzai4yuefen，sutengjuchuangyezaishenzhentuichuleyikuangaojicheng、xiaochicundezhongzhangjuchezaijiguangleidamx。

zheikuanjiguangleidazuiyuancejukeda200mi，shichangjiao120°×25°，youzaiyanyongmpingtaikebianjiaozhuanlijishudejichushang，shengjilezhineng“ningshi”gongneng。zheiyiweizhe，dangcheliangxingshizaizaigaosushi，mxkeyiqiehuanweiyuanjiaomoshi，jiangsaomiaozhongdianjizhongzaidaoluzhengqianyuanfang，erdangcheliangxingshidaochengshiluduanshi，mxhuiqiehuanwei120°×25°guangjiaoshiye，yiciyingduigezhongtufaqingkuang。

ciwai，ruwomenshangwensuoshu，wulunshizaishizhanlvhaishihezuocheqideshulianglaikan，zheilianggewanjiayeyijinglvxianzouzaileqianlie。

danzhidezhuyideshi，zhangyuanlaikan，jiguangleidachangshangzuihexindetuidonglihaishijishu，tamenrengranyaomianlingaoangdeyanfatouru。

zheiyiqushixia，hesaikeji、sutengjuchuangnengfouanyuqijindushixianyingli，yaodagewenhao。

congyanfatourulaikan，2023nian，sutengjuchuangdeyanfazhichuzhanjuleyingshoudeyibanyishang，wei6.35yiyuan，tongbizengjiale107.59%；tongqi，hesaikejiquanniandeyanfafeiyongyedadaole7.91yiyuan，tongbizengzhangle42.4%。

禾赛科技和速腾聚创近几年研发费用变化，连线出行制图

erqiezheizhongzhongtourudejumian，duanqineikenengyenanyidedaodafugaibian。

qiuchunchaociqianjieshoumeiticaifangshicengbiaoshi，“zaiguoqujinian，jiguangleidabenshenzhubujinruliangchanjieduan，danyiranshimeiniandouzaikuaisujinhua，jiazhikehudexuqiuzaidongtaibianhua，yincixuyaotourudaliangyanfa。”

hesaikejidechuangshirenliyifanyerenwei，jiexialaijiguangleidadejingzhengbushidajiaxiangxiangzhongdejiagezhan，ershixingneng。“yourenshuowomenjiexialaidegongzuoshibushijiangben，meinianjiangyiban？womingqueshuobushi。jintiandejiageyijinghendile，kehugengkanzhonghaobuhaoyong。”

hesaikejigaosulianxianchuxing，jinrushangpinshidai，yinglinengliduijiguangleidagongsiwubizhongyao，“hesaibuhanbaicaijia，xiwangtongguojishudiedailaihangshizhengxiangjingyingnengli，pingjiechengbenheguimojianliqiliangxingxunhuandefeilunxiaoying。”

youcilaikan，zaiyanfatourubunengshengdejichushang，jiguangleidagongyingshangyaoxiangzaorishixianyingli，bujinyaokanchengbenjiangdidesuduhefudunengbunenggenshangjiagexiajiangdesuduhefudu，yeyaokannengfoukaojishushilixiyinkehu，chixukuodashangcheguimo。

shichangyecunzaibuquedingxing。

yifangmian，cheqijianchixudejiagezhan，yehuijiangyalichuandaodaoshangyougongyingshangce，dailaichengbenyali。

lingyifangmian，jiguangleidadaodishibushibichunshijuejishugenghaodefangan？muqianyejierengranmeiyoudinglun，danqueshiyijingyoucheqixuanzelehouzhe。

yulailedao、jiyuedengpinpaiyijingmingquexuanbufangqijiguangleida；zaibiru，xiaopengqicheyijingzaigaikuandep5zhongnadiaolejiguangleida，tacengshishougedazaijiguangleidadezhongguochexing。

huanjuhuashuo，zhangyuanlaikan，cheqiduizhinengjiashiluxiandepanduanhexuanzedebuquedingxing，mouzhongchengdushanghuizhijieyingxiangdaojiguangleidadeshangcheguimohesudu。

youci，conghesaikejidaosutengjuchuang，tamenyijidudedafujiankuiqueshishiyigejijixinhao，dantamenshenshangdeyali，yeyidianmeiyoujianshao。