wen|xuebaocaijingshe wangyajun

“shibushigaimaichuyulaihexiaopengdegupiaole？”

jinru4yueyihou，jigouyanjiuyuanlinchao（huaming）pinpinbeitouzirenwenqizheigewenti。

tamendanxin，xiaomisu7huiduozouzheiliangjiadedingdan。leijunzai5yue18rideyicizhibozhongtoulu，xiaomisu7“xiaoliangyuanchaoyuqi”，youzhe“chaoshuiyibanyonglaideliuliang”。

danzheifenpotianfugui，julidianranzibenshichanghaichadianhuohou。

冰与火之歌

“guoqu28tianhaoxiangzaimengli，wozhidaochengle，danshiwobutaiganxiangxin。zheishizhendema？”4yuezuihouyizhou，leijunzai2024zhongguancunluntannianhuishang，rucixingrongxiaomiqichedexiaoshouxingshi。

yigeyueqiande3yue28ri，zaijingguo1000tian“zhanzhanjingjing，rulvbobing”dezhunbeihou，leijunxiangshichangtuichulexiaomiqixiashoukuanliangchanchexingxiaomisu7。shangshi27fenzhonghou，xiaomisu7dadingshuliangdadao5wan。

zuoweiduibi，cengrangaitowenjie“qisihuisheng”dexinkuanwenjiem7yongle25tian，caidadaodadingshuliangchao5wandechengji。er2023nianquannian，yulaihexiaopengfenbiemaichule16wanlianghe14.16wanliangche。

5yue23ri，leijunfaweibocheng，6yuezhishaoyaojiaofu1wanliangxiaomisu7——rugaimubiaodacheng，xiaomijiangchengweizuikuaishixiandanyuejiaofushangwandexinzaochexuanshou。

guojinzhengquanzaiyifenyanbaozhongbiaoshi，xiaomisu7shangshiqian，yulunyushichangguoduguanxinjiage，fanerhushilexiaomiqichejigaoredudailaidepinpaili，zuizhongxingchengchaoyuqiyanyidejumian。

zaixiaomisu7fabuhoudiertian，linchaolaidaoshanghaixujiahuideyijiaxiaomimendianshididiaoyan，jieguomeiyoudianyuanjiedaita，suoyouxiaoshourenyuandoudaikehuqushijiale。“tamengaosuwo，rentaiduole，liankehudeweixindoumeishijianhui。”

zai4yuejubandexiaomijituanshisizhounianjinianhuodongshang，leijuncheng“xiaomisu7bixiangxiangzhongchenggongle3dao5bei”。jitianhou，tayouzaiweiboshangbiaoshi，“dingdanqueshiyuanchaolewomenzuileguandeyuqi”。

buguo，su7dezheibahuo，haimeishaoreerjishichang。

zaixiaomiqichefabuhuihoudiergejiaoyiri（4yue2ri），xiaomiganggugujiashouzhang8.97%zhi16.28gangyuan。linchaorenwei，xiaomisu7fabuhoudingdanshuchaoyuqidailaideleguanqingxu，shigujiashangzhangdecuihuaji。

buguo，cuihuajidezuoyongzhichixuleyitian。

4yue3ri，xiaomigujiazhuantouxiangxia，shoudie4.42%zhi15.56gangyuan。zaicihoude15gejiaoyirili，gongsigujiayizhizai15～16gangyuanpaihuai。

jin20tianhou，xiaomigujiacaizaicitaitou。

4yue26rizhi5yue17ri，xiaomizhongshishengshi，cong17gangyuanshangzhangzhi19.94gangyuan。5yue16ri，yiduzhangzhi20.35yuan，chuangxia2021nian11yue25riyilaidexingao。

dankaolvdaozi4yuexiaxunkaishideganggujishuxingniushixingqing，xiaomigujiazaizheiduanshijiandebiaoxianqishibingbutuchu。jishuxingniushishizhibujiyujibenmiangaishan，ershigengduodibeijishuzhibiaotupo、shichangqingxubodongdengyinsutuidongdeshangzhangxingqing，tongchangquefachijiudeshangzhangjichu。

tongqi（4yue22rizhi5yue17ri），hengshengkejizhishuleijishangzhang23%。eryuxiaomiyitongbeinaruganggutongdelingwai3jiakejihulianwanggongsitengxunkonggu、meituan、kuaishou，tongqizhangfufenbiewei25%、24%、29%。

huidiaojiezhongerzhi。5yue20rizhi6yue5ri，xiaomileidieyu10%，diefuchaoguotongqihengshengkejizhishu。

zibenshichangduixiaomiqichedetaiduyizhijiaoweilengjing。

2021nian3yue30ri，leijunzhengshiguanxuankaishizaoche，yuanyiweici“yashangrenshengquanbudeshengyu”。guanxuanzaochehoudeshougejiaoyiri，xiaomidegujiazaipanzhongyidufanlv，shoupanshijinxiaofushangzhang0.59%。

zhihou，shichangshangbushichuanchuxiaomizaochedexinxiaoxi，danerjishichangwangwangbolanbujing。

估值分歧

qunianguoqingjiehou，simujijinjingliliulin（huaming）zai13～14gangyuandequjianduixiaomijinxingjiancang。zheicijueceweitadejijindailailekeguandeshouyi：jinnian5yue，xiaomigujiayiduzhangzhi20.35gangyuan。

buguo，zaijiancangbannianduohou，tayiranduiruheweixiaomiqicheyewuguzhigandaojishou。

xiaomiyijingkaishigongbuqichedeyuedujiaofuliang。4yuehe5yue，qijiaofuliangfenbiewei7058lianghe8630liang。

danguangshizheiyizushuju，bingbuzuyirangliulinduixiaomiqicheyewuguzhi，yinwei“haiqueshaoyingshoudengcaiwushuju”。

weilegenghaodizhuizongxiaomizheizhigupiao，tashitutongguohengxiangduibiyishangshixinzaochegongsi，weixiaomiqichetuiyanchuyigeguzhi。

zaipaichuleyijingshixiannianduyinglidelixiang、shizhijiaoxiaodelingpaohou，liulinzaiyulaihexiaopengzhijianxuanzelehouzhe。xiangbiyuyulai，xiaopengyuxiaomiqichezaishichangdingwei、chexingshoujiashanggengweijiejin。

jiezhi5yuedezuihouyigejiaoyiri，xiaopengmeigushizhiwei78.51yimeiyuan。liulinrenwei，xiaomiqicheyewudeguzhiyingdangbixiaopengqichegao，dadao100yimeiyuan。tapanduandeyijushi，“xiaomijiangyigengshaodexiaoliang，huodebixiaopenggenghaodemaolilv”。

2023nian，xiaopenggongjijiaofule14.2wanliangqiche，maolilvwei1.5%。xiaomizai5yue1rizhiqian，yijingshouwo8.8wanfendadingdingdan，jinniandeqichexiaoliangmubiaowei10wanliangyishang（xiang12wanliangchongci），maolilvmubiaowei5%～10%。

liulinjixiaomiqichedeguzhiyugaoshengjiejin。zai5yuefabudeyifenyanbaozhong，gaoshengweixiaomiqicheyewuguzhi98yimeiyuan（yueherenminbi700yiyuan）。

mogenshidanligengweileguan。jinnianyilai，gaixingliangcidiaogaoxiaomiqichedeguzhizhi1200yiyuanrenminbi，jiyuqicheyewu2.5beideshixiaolv。

shixiaolv（ps）youzongshizhichuyixiaoshouedechu，tongchangyongyuduirengchuyukuisundeqiyehuoyewujinxingguzhi。

zaixuebaocaijingsheshoujizhenglide18jiaguoneiwaijigoufabudeyanbaozhong，you8jiajigoujiyuxiaomiqiche0.75～2.5beideshixiaolv。

zaiyijiaquanshangjigoudanrenqichefenxishidezhanglei（huaming）renwei，xiaoliangshijinnianyingxiangxiaomiqicheyewuguzhidezuidabianshu，erchannengpapodeqingkuangjuedinglexiaominengfoujiangshouzhongdedingdanzhuanhuaweizhenzhengdexiaoliang。“ruguodengdetaijiu，kenenghuizaochengyonghuliushi。”

juxiaomiqicheapp，muqianxiaomiqichejiaofuzhouqirengwei30zhouzuoyou。yuzhiduibi，xiaomisu7duibiaodetesilamodel 3，zaiguoneidejiaofuzhouqishi3～6zhou。

xiaomiyeyishidaolewenti。xiaomijituanzongcailuweibingzaicaibaodianhuahuishangcheng，“womenyudaodezuidawentijiushijiaofu”。tatoulu，weitishengchanneng，xiaomi6yuekaishijiangcong“danbanzhi”gaiwei“shuangbanzhi”，yicichongcidanyuejiaofuchao1wanliangdexinmubiao。

liulinzekaishipansuanxiaomiqichemingniandebiaoxian。“niandi，shichangkenenghuibamingnianxinchedeyuqixiaoliangkaolvjinlai，qicheyewudeguzhihegongsidegujiakenenghuishangyigexintaijie。”

重塑估值逻辑

zuikuai3geyuezhihou，xiaomiqichejiangxiangshichangshifanggengduocaiwushuju。zaiq1caibaodianhuahuishang，xiaomiguanlicengbiaoshi，yujicongq2kaishi，jiangdandugongbuqicheyewudeshouruhemaolilvqingkuang。

qicheyewudeyinglijiangtuidongguzhimoshixiangshiyinglv（pe）zhuanbian。shiyinglvyouzongshizhichuyijinglirundechu，tongchangyongyuduiyingliwendingdeqiyehuoyewujinxingguzhi。

gaoshengzaiyifenyanbaozhongyuji，xiaomiqichejiangzai2028nianshixianyingkuipingheng。leijunzai4yuedijubandexiaomitouzizherishangtoulu，qicheyewurengzaikuisun，nianxiaoliangdadao30wan~40wanlianghoukeyishixianyingkuipingheng。

30wanliangdenianxiaoliangbujinnengranggongsihuodekeguanshouru，duigongyingliandeyijiaquanyejiangzengqiang。zaizaochexinshiliqiyezhong，chulelixiangwai，shangweiyounenggoudadaonianxiao30wanliangdegongsi。

congzhongzhangqilaikan，qicheyewuyouwangzhongsuxiaomijituandeguzhitixi。

shoujichangshangkuajiezaochebingfeixiaomidechuangju。zaozai2014nian，pingguojiuqidonglezidongjiashiqicheyanfaxiangmu“project titan（taitanjihua）”。zheibeishiweipingguogongsijinrubingdianfuchuantongqichexingyededadanchangshi，dangaijihuayiyujinnian2yuebeifangqi。

huaweisuirancengguanxuan“buzaoche”，danyijingyuduojiaqicheqiyehezuo。huaweizaiqicheyewushangcaiyonglebiaozhunhuadelingbujianmoshi、himoshi（huawei insidemoshi）yijizhixuanchemoshi。

zaizheixiekuajiexuanshouzhong，zhiyouxiaomigongkaibiaodaguoyaozaishoujiyuqichelianggelingyujunzuodaoshijieqianwudeyuanwang。

jushujuyanjiujigouidc，jiezhi2024nianq1，xiaomishoujizaiquanqiudeshichangfenewei14.1%，paimingdisan。qicheyewufangmian，leijunduociqiangdiao，zhiliyuzaiweilai15nianzhi20niannei，chengweiquanqiuqianwudeqichezhizaoshang。

liulinrenwei，ruguoxiaomiqichenianxiaonengdadao50wanliang，gaiyewuguzhibiannengdadao2000yigangyuan，yueweidangqianxiaomiganggushizhideyiban。

danqicheyewuduixiaomiguzhidetisheng，bingfeishijigeyewubankuaiguzhidejiandanjiazong。

leijuncengzaizhaogushuzhongbiaoshi，xiaomibushidanchundeyingjiangongsi，ershiyijiachuangxinqudongdehulianwanggongsi。danyinhulianwangyewuyingshouzhanbijiaodidengyuanyin，erjishichanggengqingxiangyujiangxiaomishiweiqianzhe。

qicheyewuyugongsishengtaideronghe，huojiangyouzhuyuxiaomitishengruanjianfuwushouru。

zaileijundegouxiangzhong，qicheshixiaomishengtailiandezuihouyikuaipintu，qichekeyibangzhugongsidazaochuconggerenshebeidaozhinengjiating、zhinengbangong，zaidaozhinengchuxingdequanlianlushengtai。

qunian10yue，xiaomituichulepengpaiosxitong，bingxuanbujituanzhanlvecong“shouji×aiot”shengjizhi“renchejiaquanshengtai”。xiaomizhinengzuocangdazailepengpaiosxitong，keyishixianchejiyushouji、mijiazhinengshebeidehulian，zheishixiaomi“renchejiaquanshengtai”zhanlvedejichubuju。

zailiulinkanlai，xiaomiqichekeyitongguotuichufufeizhinengjiashigongneng、chezaiyulexitong，huoqugaomaolideruanjianshouru，“zheishiyigeleisifsdzhiyutesiladegushi”。

jujianadahuangjiayinxingfenxishitom narayancesuan，tesilafsdyewudeguzhiyuewei2353.75yimeiyuan，zhantesilazongguzhide22%。meiyinzhengquanrenwei，tesilafsdyewumaolilvkenengchao70%，yuxiaomimaolilvzuigaodehulianwangfuwuyewujiejin。

qicheyewudailaideruanyingjianshouruheduixiaomishengtaipintudebuchong，kenenghuituidongzibenshichangzhongxindingyixiaomi。dangran，qiantishileijunyaorangxiaomiqichebaochizhukeguandexiaoliang。