文｜华夏能源网

bansuinengyuanzhuanxingzouxiangshenru，dianlibaogongzhengzaichengweiyimennandujigaodejishuhuoer。zheiyidian，kankanzhejiangjiuzhidaole。

jinjinianlai，minyingjingjidashengzhejiang，yingfengduxiashijiezongweidianlibaogonghedianjiashangzhangerkunao。zheizhongkunao，yijinghennanwanquanguiyinyu2021nianyilaimeijiashangzhangdeyingxiang。lvdiandaimeixiadefuzajumian，shidedianlibaogongbiyiqiangengnan。

zaizhejiangdejingjizongliangzhong，minyingjingjizhanbiyuqicheng，minyingqiyehegetigongshanghuchaoguo1000wanhu，qieduoshizhongxiaoqiye。minqiyouqishizhongxiaoqiyeduidianlibaogonghedianjiayichangmingan，dianjiashangzhangjifenqian，qiyejiuyaozengjiajishiwanshangbaiwandechengben，henduoshihouzheijiushiyingyukui、shengyusidebianjie。

zhejiangzhengfushichulemingdeqinminyingjingji。2022nianyilai，weileqianfangbaijijianqinggongshangqiyededianjiashangzhangyali，zhejiangbuxidezuiyizhongfadianjutouheshoudiangongsi，yiduhaijiangzishentuixiangleyulundefengkoulangjian。jinguanruci，zhejiangzaidianlibaogonghewendingdianjiafangmiandeyixilienuli，haishidedaoleguangfanzunzhongyurentong。

jinnianxiatian，zhejiangsuomianlindedianlibaogongjushiyiranyanjun。shangbannianzhejiangquanshehuiyongdianliang2926.4yiqianwashi，tongbizengzhang9%，chaoguoquanguopingjunzengfu。zhejiangshengnengyuanjuyupan，jinnianzhejiangquanshehuiyongdianliangjiangtongbizengzhang5.5%，da6530yiqianwashi；zuigaofuheyue1.2yiqianwa，tongbizengzhang9%。quanniandianligongxuxingshizongtijinpingheng，ruyujiduantianqijianggengjiakunnan。

ruheyouxiaowenjiabaogong，ruheyouxiaopoju？zhejiangdetansuojuyoushifanyiyi。zhejiangdianlibaogongsuomianlindeqingshi，zaiquanguoyouqishidongbushengfenzhongjuyoupubianxing。huanyijuhuashuo，zhejiangshiyigesuoying，shizhongguonengyuanzhuanxingshidaihuajiedianlibaogongzhuyaomaodundeyigehenhaoyangben。

回不去的煤电“伊甸园”

zaozai2021nian，yuquanguoduodiyiyang，zhejiangyezaoyuleduonianhanjiandelazhaxiandian。

neiyilunlazhaxiandian，wentizhuyaochuzaimeidianshenshang。youyu“shisanwu”qijianmeitanchixuquchanneng，zhi2021nianmeijiakaishifengzhang，donglimeigaodianjingranchaoguole2000yuanmeidun。erdianjiayoushiyangekongzhide，fayidudianjiukuiyidudian，henduomeidianchanggancuijiutingjibufale，qijieguojiushiquedianhelazhaxiandian。

2021niandianhuangzhihou，weidiaodongmeidianqiyejijixing，guanfangcaiquleliangxiangcuoshi：yishizhangdianjia，dianjiashangfufanweicongyuanlaide10%kuodazhi20%；ershikongmeijia，tongguoyangeduncuzhangxiemeilvyue、zengjiameitanshengchanyujinkoudengcuoshi，meijiazai2023nianyilaizhubudafuhuiluo。

muqian，donglimeijiageyijinghuiluozhi800yuan/dunzuoyou，meidianqiyezhongyu“wangzheguilai”，kaishidafuyingli，fadianjijixingyesuizhigaozhang。danzaicijumianxia，zhejiangzheiyangdeyongdiandashengrengzaiaozhandianlibaogong。weishenmehuizheiyang？

xianlaikanzhejiangdedianlizhuangjijiegou。jiezhi2023niandi，zhejiangyongyou1.3yiqianwadedianlizhuangji，baokuohedian、fengdian、guangfu、shuidianzaineideqingjienengyuanzhuangjizhanbi47.8%，yejiushishuo，zhejiangmeidianzhuangjizhanbirengranzaiwuchengzuoyou。jinnian1-5yue，meidiangongxianlezhejiangshengnei70%yishangdefadianliang。

jinwuchengdezhuangji，yuqichengdedianliang，meidianshibaozhengzhejiangbuzaifashenglazhaxiandiande“yacangshi”。danshi，meitanweizhudeyongnengjiegouyerangzhejiangganshoudaojudayali。zai“shuangtan”beijingxia，zhejiangdenengyuanxiaofeixuyaogengjia“lvse”，ditanzhuanxingrenwujianju。

zhenduimeitanxiaofeizhanbijiaogaodewenti，《zhejiangshengmeitanshiyoutianranqifazhan“shisiwu”guihua》tichu，dao2025nian，meitanxiaofeiliangzaiyicinengyuanxiaofeijiegouzhongdezhanbiyaoxiajiangzhi33.9%，meidianfadianliangzhanbiyaojiangzhi50%zuoyou。

neime，zhejianggairuheshixianmeidianfadianliangzhanbijiangzhi50%demubiao？

长远来看，浙江核电、水电装机已难言增长，其用能绿色转型只能看风光新能源的持续放量（截至2023年底，浙江光伏装机3357万千瓦，风电装机584万千瓦，风光等新能源装机占全省发电总装jibilishouchaosancheng）。yejiushi，zhejiangzhinengkaofengguangfadianzengzhanglaijinyiqiekenengzuodafenmu，laijiangdimeidiandezhanbi。

然而，这谈何容易？2024年1-5月数据显示，浙江逾4000万千瓦、总装jizhanbichaosanchengdefengdianguangfu，qifadianliangzhanbishangbuzu7%。zaixianshiqingkuangxia，fengguangdianhainanyichengdanqibaogongdezhongren。

zhejiangmianlindenanti，shiquanguolaishuoyoudianxingxing，zheishizainengyuanzhuanxingjieduanbudebumaiguoqude“yidaokan”。

yaojiakuailvdiandaimei，jiuxuyaomeidianzhudongpeihejianshaochuli。yimianshixuyaozengjiachuli、zengjiafadianliangdefengguangdebujinrurenyi，gaishangliangdenanyishangliang；yimianshimeidianyaolinghuoxinggaizaoweifengguangranglu，younenglidequeyaojianshaochuli。zheilianggulilianghubozhixia，henrongyijiuzaochengdianlibuzu、gongyingjinzhang。

danjiudianlibaogonglaishuo，meidianyijiadudadedianlixitongkendingshiyigelixiangde“yidianyuan”，danzicongkaiqinengyuanzhuanxingdezhamenhou，womenjiuzaiyehuibudaomeidianyidianyuanle。

meidiankeyi24xiaoshiwendingchuli，qielinghuokediaojie；fengguangzeshichulemingde“lajidian”，juyousuijixing、jianxiexing、bodongxing，nixuyaodeshihoutakenengmeiyou，niyongbuleneimeduodeshihoutayou“fengguangwuxian”。meidiandingfengbaogong，lishunmeijiadianjiajiuxingle，chulikeduokeshao，kediaokekong。danshi，maixiangxinnengyuanshidaidedianlibaogong，henxianranyuanxiandezuofaxingbutongle。

“外来电”风险

zhejiangdianligongxujinpingheng，haifanyingzaidianjiashang。zaimeitishaichudegezhongdianjiabangdanshang，zhejiangshichangdougaojubangshou。

dianjiahenfuza，butongshiduanbuyiyang，youfengjia、gujia、pingjiazhiqubie。zhejiangdudianfengjiadadao1.3yuan，gujiajiejin0.5yuan，pingjiajiejin0.9yuan。danyibanlaishuo，pingjiashinenggoudaibiaoyishengdianjiajunzhide。zhejiangshaoxingyijiaweijiadianqiyegongyingpaomobaozhuangpindeminyingqiye，fankuidepingjundudiandianjiajiushi8maoduo，zheijuyouyidingdedaibiaoxing。

浙江电价为什么高？

jiagelianzhegongxuliangfang。zhejiangyifangmianshigongshangqiyezhongduo，yongdianxuqiuwangsheng；lingyifangmian，zhejiangdedianligongjibijiaoteshu。zhejiangchuyumeitangongyingdemoshao，meidianjiageziranhuigaoyidian；ciwai，lvdiandaimeidexitongchengbenyetuigaolezhengtidianjia。biru，weilexiaona0.3yuan/duzuoyoudexinnengyuan，guoneibushaodiqudefuzhufuwudiaofengjiage0.6-1.0yuan/duzaoyijianguanbuguai。

shijishang，zhejiangdegaodianjiahaiyu“wailaidian”gaozhanbiguanximiqie。

zhejiangshiwailaidiandasheng。zuowei“xidiandongsong”deshouduandasheng，guoqushinianjian，zhejiangdewailaidianzhanbicong9%zengjiadaolejiejin40%。sanxia、baihetan、xiluodudengdaxingshuidianzhandedian，sichuanshuidian，fujian、xinjiangtongguotegaoyasongzhejiangdedian，yijiniyizhongdeganzhezhiliuluodiningbodexibeilvdian……wailaidianshitianbuzhejiangyongdianquekoude“zhulijun”。

benlai，kuaqushoudian，shengjianhuji，duiyuzhejiangshiyouzhuyushixiandianlibaogongde。danshi，zaifuzadedianlishichangxingshixia，kuashenggoudiandegaodianjia，querangzhejiang“youkunanyan”。

2022nian7-8yue，chixugaowenxijuanzhejiang，zaikongdiaofuhededaidongxia，zhejiangyongdianfuhelvchuangxingao。qizhong，7yue13ri，zhejiangquanshengyongdianfuhedadaochuangjilude10022wanqianwa。zhengge7yue，zhejiangquanshehuiyongdianliangtongbizengzhang11.05%，gaochuquanguojin5gebaifendian。

zaishengneizhuangjimanfadetongshi，zhejiangjiadalekuashenggoudianlidu。qiazaicishi，yinweilaishuipianku，xinanshuidiansongzhejiangdedianliangjianshao。wanbanwunaizhixia，zhejiangzhinengcongshengjianxianhuoshichangdajugoudian，dudiandianjiawangwangshigaoda3yuan、5yuanshenzhishi10yuan。

youci，jin2022nian7yue、8yuelianggeyue，jiuzaochenglezhejiangshengneidianlishichangfenbiekuisun49.9yiyuanhe38.44yiyuan。neime，wentiyelaile，zheijin90yiyuandegaoewaigoudianfeiyong，yaozenmequpinghengni？

weilejianqinggongshangqiyefudan，zhejiangzuixiantichule“jijiatai”defangan，jishengneifadianqiyeheshoudiangongsidourangdianli，chengdanyidian。danshi，zheiyifanganzaodaolefadianqiyeheshoudiangongsidejilifandui。zuizhong，zheibufengaojiadiandefeiyong，haishibufenluodaolegongshangqiyedetoushang。

weilai，xinjianglvdian、gansulvdiandenglvdiandianlianggengjiananyibakong，zhongzhangqihetongchanshengdedianliangpiancha，douxuyaotongguoshengjianxianhuoshichanglaipinghengzhaobu，zheijiuyiweizhedianjiabodongdefengxianjianglaiyiranhuicunzaishenzhihuigengyanzhong。

yebujinjinshizhejiangyisheng。zaixinnengyuanshidai，dianlikuashenghuji，shengjiandianlijiaoyidoucunzaiyigeliangjiadongdangdewenti，zheishibudebumianduidefengxian。

靠市场还是靠政府？

“shuangtan”zhuanxingxiadedianlibaogong，xuyaotongshiquzhuiqiubingyiqishixianduogemubiao——lvse、baogong、wenjia。

meidianyitongjiangshanxia，dianlibaogongzhixudashangmeidianbinglishunmeijia、dianjiaguanxijike。dangxianengyuanzhuanxingshiqidedianlibaogong，zaizenmewenbuyouxudituijinlvdiandaimei，douhuichanshengliangjiananti，yejidianlianghedianjiabukekongdewenti。

nengyuanzhuanxingdailaidianlibaogongmubiaoduoyuanhuadetongshi，haiyaoqumianduiliyizhutideduoyuanhua。meidianjiyaodingfengbaogongyouyaoweixinnengyuanranglu，dianwangjiyaobaoxitonganquanyouyaotishengxinnengyuanxiaonanengli，fengguanglvdianjiyaoshangliangyouyaokediaojie，chunengjiyaojiangbenyouyaonengyongdeshang，fuhejiyaoyoudianyong、yongbianyidianhaiyaoxuqiucexiangying……

zheimeduodemubiao，zheimeduodeliyizhuti，yaoxiangranggefanghuxiangpeihe、xiediaoyunzhuan，jiyaodaoweiyoubunengyueweihuocuowei，daodixuyaoyitaoshenmeyangdejizhini，shishichangdiaojiedebanfa，haishizhengfuganyudebanfa？

先说市场的办法。

2022nianyilai，zhejiangweilejigongshangqiyejiangdianjia，duishengneimeidianqiyedeshangwangdianjiajinxinglezhengfuganyu，youyushizhimeitanjiagexiaxingzhouqi，zhejiangyaoqiumeidianshangwangdianjiayaoyuxiaxingdemeijialiandong，zheishijishangyejiushiyongxingzhengganyudebanfajiangdianjia。

zhengfuganyuhou，meidiandianjiaduanqineiyousuodiaojiang，danshizhangqini？ruguofadianliangzhanbi70%yishangdemeidianjijixingshoucuobingjianshaochuli，dianlibaogongyalijiuhenda。neizhejianghaishixuyaojiagouwailaidianlaibuzuxuqiu，zuizhongdianjiayounanmiandiaotouxiangshang。

2022niankaiqidianlixianhuoshiyunxingdemengxi，zejijifahuileshichangjiagedezhiyinzuoyong，ladafenggujiacha，xianhuoshichangfadiancezuigaochuqingjiagewei1.71yuan/qianwashi，gaofengshiduanpingjunchuqingjiagewei0.567yuan/qianwashi，fenbiebiranmeijizhundianjiashangzhangleyue500%he100%。youci，meidianjizufadianjijixingbeijifa，bannianjianshijifadianliangzengchao1yiqianwashi。fadianliangshanglaile，baogongbuchengwenti，zuizhongyeyouzhuyudianjiawending。

zaishuozhengfuganyudebiyaoxing。

muqian，fenbushiguangfubingwangnanwentiyuyanyulie，jubuwanquantongji，zhongdongbu8sheng370duogexianyijingchengweijiewanghongqu。huajiezheiyinantideyigebanfashipeidianwangkuorong。danshi，youyuxiangguanjizhitizhiweinenglishun，peidianwangjiansheyizhiyanzhongzhihou。

peidianwangjianshezhihoushichuyouyin。gaodianyadengjideshudianwangyudidianyadengjidepeidianwang，shupeidianjiabishi7：3，danjianshechengbenzeshidaoguolaide3：7。zheizhongjumianxia，dianwangqiyequefadongliqujianshe“feilibutaohao”depeidianwang。erdifangzhengfuhuozheshehuizibenyaoxiangrujupeidianwangjianshe，budanguowangfeiguodinanyiyanghuozishen，zengliangpeidianwangjierudianyuanhaiyaoshoudaodianwangde“weizhuidujie”。

henxianran，ruguozhengfubuqutuijindiangaipoju，peidianwangkuorongjiuhennan，fenbushiguangfudechixushangliangyejiangbeikunzaihongquliwufadongdan。

zaikanxinnengyuanrushidianjiachixuzoudidewenti。muqian，jizhongshiguangfuzaizhongzhangqijiaoyizhongyijingpaochule1maoqiandedianjia，qixianhuoshichangjiagedexiaxianyechujile0.04yuan/qianwashide“dibanjia”，dongbuguangfudashengshandonggengshipaochule-1maoqiandefudianjia。

duici，zhengfunenggouyiweifangrenziliuma？daanshifoudingde。zhengfuzheizhi“youxingzhishou”yaojishiganyu，ganyudefangxiangshiliangge：ganyushengjianhujidefanwei，ganyujiage。

zhisuoyiyaoganyushengjianhujidefanwei，neishiyinweidanyishengfendexinnengyuanchulizaibutongshiduanbodongjiaoda。danshi，dangzaigengdadilifanweineizuoouhe，birufangyan“sanbei”jihuazhonghuadongquyu，zhengtifengdianchuliquxianjiupinghuahenduo，zaibirujiangshandonghexinjiangdeguangfuchuliquxiankuaqupinghua，xinnengyuanjiukeyidedaogenghaodexiaona。

zaigengdafanweineishixianxinnengyuanchuliquxiandekuaqupinghua，shouxianyaoyoutongdao，biruniyizhongdeganzhezhiliu，zheimeiyouzhengfuguihuayuganyushiwufashixiande。

erzhengfuganyudianjia，keyicaiyongjingjijinrongshouduan，biruzaiyingguoyiyouqinianshishijingyandechajiaheyue。zhengfushouquanxiangguanjigouyukezaishengnengyuanfadianqiyeqiandingzhangqihetongquedinglvyuejiage，ruguoshichangdianjiadiyuhetonglvyuejia，jiuxiangfadianqiyetigongbutiezhihetonglvyuejia，fanzhizeyoufadianqiyefanhaigaochudebufen。

zaijiangzheminjianliuchuanzhezheiyangyishouminyao，“zuotiannanzuoeryuetian,canyaonuanhemaiyaohan。zhongcaigegeyaoluoyu,caisangniangziyaoqinggan”。

“shuangtan”shidaihuozheshuonengyuanzhuanxingbeijingxiadedianlibaogong，mianduidenantiyeshizheiyangde“jiyao……youyao……haiyao……”shixian“shuangtan”mubiaohenengyuanzhuanxingyeshiyiyang，“jiyaoanquanwending，youyaojingjikexing，haiyaoqingjieditan”，suoyichengzhiweinengyuangemingde“bukenengsanjiao”。

er“shuangtanjincheng”，jiushiyaotongguoyixiliedejiankunuli，tongguoshichangdeshouduan、zhengfuganyudeshouduan，qupojienengyuangemingde“bukenengsanjiao”。

zhengruyoutaizhihuibaodian《tamude》lideyijumingyan，“tianxiananzuochengdeshiqingzuirongyizuocheng”。zheishiyigezhihuidebianzhengfa，gengshiyizhongyongyutiaozhandeleguanjingshen。tuijinnengyuangeminghelvsezhuanxing，jiuxuyaozheizhongjingshencaiyoukenengchenggong。