wen | juchao humo

bianji | yangxuran

jihangyunyeshoudaogengduoshichangguanzhuzhihou，zhongguozaochuanyeyeyinglailegengduojuguangdengdezhaoshe。

zhongguozaochuanyedelongtouqiyezhongguochuanbo，fabuleshangbannianyejidafuyuzengdegonggao。zheisihubiaomingjixiayouhangyunbankuaidechixuhuorezhihou，shangyouzaochuanyeyejiangyinglaizijidechuntian。

shishiyedequeruci，muqianduojiazaochuanchangdeguoneiwaidedingdanyuejiyueduo，bufenchuanchangdingdanyijingpaidaole2028nian。genjutongji，muqianzhongguozaochuanyedingdanjiaofuliang、zaishoudingdanliang、xinqiandingdanliangyijingshixianlianxu14nianweijushijiediyi。

chuanbogongyeheqichegongyeleisi，doushigongyezhizaonenglidejidachengzhe。tongshi，zaochuanyegengyiweizheyigeguojiaduiyuhaiyangziyuandezhangkongnengli。danheqitajuedaduoshuzhizaoyeyiyang，zuizhongnenggouzaizheichangquanqiugongyejingzhengzhongshengchude，rengranshizhongguo。

01 新周期

genjuzhongguochuanbofabudeyejiyuzenggonggao，jinnianshangbanniangongsishixianguimujinglirun13.5yi-15yi，tongbizengjia144%-171%；shixiankoufeijinglirun11.2yi-12.7yi，xiangbiquniantongqikuisunde11.7yiyuan，youledafuhaozhuan。

zheifenyejiyugaodezhongyaoyiyizaiyu，zi2020nianxiayouhaiyunguqiangshishangzhanghou，dajiasihukandaoleshangyouzaochuanchangburuxinzhouqideshijianchuangkou。

2020nian，quanqiuhuoyunxuqiubujunheng，yunfeijizhongshangzhang，hangyunshichangjiageyidugaozhang。dandangshiyouyuteshushiqi，gefangduiyuyunfeishangzhangdetaidujinshen，xiayoudefanrongbingmeiyoujishichuandaozhishangyouzaochuanchanghuanjie。biruzai2022nian，zaiyunfeibaochigaoweideqingkuangxia，zhongguochuanbodangnianchengjieminpinchuanbodingdan70sou/450.77wanzaizhongdun，jiao2021niande132sou/1211.17wanzaizhongdunfanerfashengdafuxiajiang。

yizhongguochuanboweidaibiaodeshangyouzaochuanyedefanrong，bujinjinyuanyuxiayouyunfeishangzhang，gengshiduozhongyinsudiejiadejieguo——zheixieyinsujiyulezhengtiaochanyelianyigengdadexinxin。

dazhouqidejiaodulaikan，cong1886niandao2020nian，shijiechuanbozhizaoyeyigongyou6cidazhouqi，pingjunmeigezhouqidagaichixuershinianzuoyou。zaimeigedazhouqizhong，jibenhuibaohan7~15niandezhongzhouqihe3~4niandexiaozhouqi。

zhisuoyihuichanshengzhouqi，genbenyuanyinzaiyuchannengdecuopei，maoyizengzhangeryunlibugoushi，jiuhuidaidongshangyouzaochuanyedefanrong，dangmaoyixiahuashi，zaochuanyeyehuimianlinchannengguoshengdewenti。bingqieyouyuxinchuanjianzaocongkaigongdaoxiahaixuyao1~2niandeshijian，yinciyunfeizougaodeshihou，chuandongweibihuijijixiadan，yinweichuandongbingbuyidinghuixiazhuliangnianzhihouyunfeihaihuiweichizaigaowei。

conggongjiduanlaikan，2008nianjinrongweijizhihou，daliangchuanchangguantingdaobi。jiezhiqunian，quanqiuhuoyuechuanchangshuliangwei337sou，jinweigaofengshiqi2008nian1022soude33%，channengdafushousuo。congxuqiuduanlaikan，genjuclarksondeshujuxianshi，2023nian12yue，quanqiushangchuanchuanduipingjunchuanlingdadao13.7nian，shi2009nianyilaidezuigaoshuiping，xiayoucunzaimingquedegengxinhuandaixuqiu。

zaijiashangjinnianlaixiayouchuandongxianjinliuzhuangkuangpubianlianghao，diejiahuanbaozhengcequyan，xingyebileitigao，zheixieyinsudouhuirangzaochuanyedexinyilunzhouqigengjiachijiu。

02 最受益

youyuzaochuanchanyejuyourenlimijixing、jishumijixing、zibenmijixingdetezheng，qichanyanqianyilujingyifangmianzunxunleyouzhizaoyechengbenguojiaxiangdizhizaoyechengbenguojiazhuanyideguilv，lingyifangmian，duiyuyiguodezhizaoyejichu、jishujichuhezibenjichudoutichulefeichanggaodeyaoqiu。

zongguanchuanbochanyedefazhanlishi，congouzhoudaoriben、hanguo，zaidaozhongguo，doufuhezheiyiguilv。

19shijimo，yingguoshibuzhebukoudezaochuandaguo。zuoweigongyegemingdefayuandi，yingguozhuazhulezhengqichuanshidaibengfadejiyu，dangshishijieshangyiduyouliuchengyishangdechuanbodoushiyouyingguoshengchan。

1956nian，ribenpingjielianghaodegongyejichu，yijihexifangshijiezhijiandemiqiehezuo，zhuazhulejuxingyouchuanjueqideshiji，chengweiguojizaochuanyedezhongxindiqu。

erxiayigequanshijiezaochuanzhongxinhanguotongyangweiyudongya，tongyangyuoumeizhizaoyedezhuanyiyoumiqieguanxi。shanggeshiji70niandai，zaimeiguozibendezhichixia，hanguokaishituixingzhonggongyezhengce，zaochuanyeshizhongdianfuchideduixiang，hanguozhengfuweixiandaijituandengqiyegonglejuedezijinzhichi、dixidaikuanzhengcehechukoubutie。

dao2000nian，hanguozaochuanliangdequanqiushizhanlvdadao43%，jietileribenchengweilexindequanqiudiyidazaochuanguo，zaochuanyezhijinyerengranshihanguodezhizhuchanyezhiyi，channengguimozaiquanqiujuzuqingzhong。jinrongweijizhihou，hanguodechanyezhengcepianzhongyutishengjishu，zaochuanyeyekaishixiangyilngyunshuchuanweidaibiaodegenggaojishuchuanbofazhan，zhijinzheixiegaoduanchuanbodezhizaoshuipingzhangqilingxianquanqiu。

zhongguozaochuangongyetixideshichanghua，yuanyugaigekaifangchuqi“yinjinguowaixianjinjishu，chuanbochukoudajinguojishichang”desilu。yizhongguochuanbojituanweidaibiaodeguoyouzaochuantixi，zaizhongguoshichangshang，zhangqibanyanzhezhongyaojiaose。

genjugongxinbudezuixinshuju，zhongguozaochuanyesandazhibiao——baokuo‌zaochuanwangongliang、‌xinjiedingdanlianghe‌shouchidingdanliang，yishixianlianxu14nianweijushijiediyi，chengweiquanqiuweiyiyigesandazhibiaoshixianquanmianzengzhangdeguojia。

zhongguozaochuanyezhisuoyinenggouchixulingxian，zaiyuzhongguozaochuanyedejishutisheng、xiangyingsuduyijigaoxingjiabicelve。

jishudejinbu，rangzhongguodezaochuanchangzhubukaishishejigenggaojishuhanliangdechuanzhong，ruhaohuayoulun、tezhongchuanzhi，lngyunshuchuandengdeng。

zaixiangyingsudufangmian，zhongguozhizaoyeqiyebaochileshijieyiliushuiping。yangshiwangcengjingbaodaoguo，mouzaochuanchangweilegangongjiaban，jibianzaichunjieshijian，yijiuyou50%degongrendaogang，zaichunjiejieshuhoushixian100%fangong。zhongguozaochuanchangpingzhegongchengshimendepinbo，duiquanqiuzaochuanxuqiudingdanxingchenglejikuaidexiangyingsudu，qiangdaodalianghaiwaidingdan。

zuihou，zhongguozaochuanchangdegaoxingjiabicelveyeshizhenggechanyechixuzengzhangdezhongyaoyuanyin。zheiliyaozhuyiyidian，suoweigaoxingjiabicelvebingbushiyikaolianjialaodonglixingchengdichengben、dishoujia——genjuzhiyoujideshuju，2024nianzhongguozaochuangongchengshidegongzijiaoqunianshangzhangyiyou40%。

zhongguozaochuanyezaichengbenduanxingchengdeyoushi，zhuyaolaiyuanyulaizizhengfudeshuishouyouhui、jishuchuangxinjiangli，hedaliangdingdandailaideguimoxiaoying，yijichengshuwanbeidegongyingliantixi，zheixieshiquanqiujuedaduoshuguojiasuobujubeideyoushi。

jiezhiqunianniandidexinjiedingdanzhong，ribenzaochuanyechixuweisuo，shujuyijinglianxuduonianxiahua，hanguoyechuxianlexiaofuxiahua，zhengtijiedanguimoyijingduoniantingzhibuqian，zhiyouzhongguozi2018nianyilaibaochizheqiangshizengzhang。

03 掌控力

erzhanhou，youyuelaiyueduodeguojiayishidao，zaochuanyeduiyujingjifazhanyouzheqiangdadeladongzuoyong，nenggoudaidonggangtie、yousejinshu、jixiedengshushigexingyedefazhan，gongyinglianshifenzhizhang，shenzhibeichengwei“zonghegongyezhiguan”。

gengzhongyaodeyifangmian，duiyuyigeguojialaishuo，zaochuanshiliyiweizheduihaiyangziyuan——baokuoyuyeziyuan、hangyunziyuannaizhiquanqiujingjimaoyihezuoquanlidezhangkong。

zaijinjinianzhongguoqichedechuhaijinchengzhong，zaochuanyeyuhaiyangziyuanyingyongdejiazhihezhongyaoxingbeitixiandelinlijinzhi。

zhongguoqichechukouliangfeisutisheng，danchuanyunquechengweiletuohoutuihuanjie：yunfeibiaosheng，yichuannanqiu，haiwaihangyunqiyeyaoqiukeke，chengweizhongguoqichechuhaimianlindexianshikunjing，yixiecheqibudebukaishizijimaichuan。

jukelakesenyanjiutongji，cong2020nian8yuedao2023nian5yue，6500biaozhuncheweiqicheyunshuchuanyinianqizujinyijingcong1wanmeiyuan/tianbiaoshengzhi10.5wanmeiyuan/tian，zaidianfengshiqishenzhizujindadaole11wanmeiyuan/tian，budaosanniandeshijianlishangzhangleshibeiyouyu，mingbaizheyaoqiezouzhongguoqichededalianglirun。

yishidaohangyunguimoduiyuzhongguoshangpinchukoulirundeyingxiang，muqianzhongguosanjiayangqizhengkaiqipangdadezaochuanjihua：qizhong，zhongguoyuanyanghaiyunjituanjihuaxinzengyue100soudaxingsanhuochuan、youlun、duoyongtuzahuochuandengchuanboyunli；zhaoshangjujituanqixiadehangyunbankuaijihuaxinzengyue100soudaxingsanhuochuan、youlun、lngchuandengchuanboyunli；guojianengyuantouzijituanqixiadehangyungongsiyejihuadafukuozhangyunli，yisanhuochuanweizhu。

zheizhong“guohuoguoyun”dezhanlveyiweizhe，zhongguoshangpindequanqiuyunshunengli，bixuzhangwozaizhongguozijishouzhong，fouzebiranhuifanfuchuxiantongguogaoyunfeishougezhongguozhizaolirundeqingkuang。

shenzhi，haiwaihangyungongsihechuandonghuitongguobaokuo“gongtonghaisun”denggezhongfangshi，jiangchuanzhihangyunxiangguanfengxianzhuanjiadaoshangpinsuoyouzheshenshang。youyuzhongguoshimuqianquanqiudiyidashangpinzhizaoguohemaoyiguo，xianranzheiduiyuzhongguozhizaoyeqiyelaishuoyiweizhejudadeqianzaifengxian。

yiji，haiwaihangyungongsizhengzaijinxingxinyilundezhenghe，yidizhonghaihangyun（msc）zaiquanqiufanweineifengkuangkuozhangyunliguimoweidaibiao，quanqiuhaiyunnengliquyujizhong，zheiduiyutishenghangyunjiagelaishuofeichangyouxiao。

zhongzhongjixiangbiaoming，ciqianyououmeirixindengguojiazhudaodehangyungeju，zhengzaizhiyuezhegengduozhongguoshangpinzouxiangshijiedebufa。zhongguoyijingdaoleyigebixuyouzijizhangkonghangyunnengli、zhangkonghangyundingjiaquandelishijiedian。

weici，jianzaogengduodaxing、xianjinjishudehuoyunchuanbo，duiyuzhongguojingjilaishuoshizaibixing，zhenggezhongguozaochuanyeyeyincimianlinzhelishijidejiyuqi。

04 写在最后

zaochuanyedejudajiazhiwuyongzhiyi，zheibingfeishiyigechuantongde、daibiaoluohoushengchanlidezhizaoyexingye。xiangfan，zheikuaifeiroushishikekezaibeiqitaguojiadingzhe，zhongguozaochuanyedejingyingyufazhan，zaiweilairengjiangmianduilaiziwaibudezhangqiyali。

zaiganggangguoqudediyijidu，hanguoguanfangdeshujuxianshi，jinniandeqiansangeyuehanguozaochuanyehuodele136yimeiyuandingdan，tongqizhongguodedingdane126yimeiyuan，zaijidushujushanglveweichaoguozhongguo。

muqianzhongguozaochuanyezaisandazhibiaoshangjunweishijiediyi，danshizaigaoduanchuanxinglingyujiaohanguorengyouyixiechaju。weilaizhongguozaochuanyexiangyaojinyibupandenggaoduanshuiping，kuodashichangfene，neishibihuiyuhanguozhijianchanshenggengjiajiliedejingzheng。

tongshi，zaichuantonghedijiachuanxingfangmian，zhongguoyehuimianlinlaizilaodonglichengbengengdiguojiadetiaozhan。tebieshiyuenan，rujinyichengzhangweishijiedisizaochuandaguo，qianbujiu“zhangmingmeng01hao”xiashui，gaichuanshiyuenanyoushiyilaibentuzhizaodezuidasanhuochuan，xiangzhengzheyidingdejishushili。

《juchao wave》panduan，zhongguochuanbochanyeyijingwanchenglezugoudejishuchubeihechanyelianjichu，zaiguojizhengzhijingjiyanbiandezuoyongxia，zhengjinrudaoquanmiandebaofaqi，yincibenlunzaochuanzhouqijiangyouzugoudadechixuxinghejiazhichuangzaonengli。

zaizhouqiyinsuzhiwai，zhenggezaochuanyedeshengjirenghuijixutuijin，bijingtansuonaizhizhengfuhaiyang，shifanghaiyangziyuandeqianli，shizhongshirenleishehuidezhongjiketizhiyi，conglaibuhuijincongjingjishijiaoquhengliang。