文 | 读懂财经 杨扬

编辑 | 夏益军

hexinzichanpaomopomiedesannian，xiaofeilongtoushiyilufuchongxialaide。lianmaotaibenzundoudiequle30%，qitaxiaofeimao，dadie7chengdebibijieshi。

dannongfushanquanshigeliwai，jinnian5yuefenqian，tazhibicengjingdeshizhigaodiandiequ25%，bimaotaihaikangdie，shizuijurenxingdexiaofeigu。

dan5yueguohou，youshilingyifanjumianle。jinsanyue，nongfushanquanshizhijisuxiadiele1/3。fashengleshenme？nongfushanquanshixiayigedaoxiadexiaofeimaoma？

本文持有以下观点：

1、maishuideshengyibianle。dingjiaquan+qiangyunying，shinongfushanquanmaolilvgaoda59.5%。dan5yueshangxiandelvpingshuifaqijiagezhan，bazijidelirundalexialai，youyanbaoyujinongfushanquanshangbannian，jinglirunxiadie4.6%。

2、youladipinpaiyijiadeyinyou。xiaofeipintouzilinianpaixushi，chanpinliburuqudaoli，qudaoliburupinpaili。pinpailizuizhijiedetixianjiushijiantingdejiage。henduopinpaidetuishiwangwangshicongjiageshihengkaishide。

3、buhuichengweiyouyigedaoxiadexiaofeimao。xiaofeixiaxingchu，henduoxiaofeimaochaoriqidaan，tijiabaoyeji。danmeibaozhu，jiashenlegujiadiefu。ernongfushanquanzhaodaolewutangchazengliangshichang，rengranbaozhulechengzhangxing。

/ 01 / 卖水的生意变了

ganggu+xiaofei，dangzheilianggebiaoqianjizhongzaiyijiagongsishenshang，zheijiagongsideguzhidagailvbuhuihaokan。

nongfushanquanshigeyiwai，ganggudafuxiacuojiashangxiaofeidapan“liangjiaqidie”dedabeijingxia，nongfushanquanguzhizhangqijidao50beiyishang（2020/9yuezhi2023nian）。

chengqigaoguzhideyidahexinshi，dingjiaquan+qiangyunying，jitadailaidechaoqiangyinglinengli。2023niannongfushanquanjingliruntongbizengzhang42.19%，maolilvgaoda59.5%。

dingjiaquanlaizi“tianranshui”dingwei，shimianshangdabufenpingzhuangshuishichunjingshui，chunjingshuilaizizilaishui，tianreshuilaizidaziran，dingjiadiqiziranzu。

qiangyunyingshirangnongfujiusuanzhibichunjingshuiguiyidian，yenengzhuandaqian。

tianranshuishoujiadi，yunshuchengbengao，you“500gongliyunshubanjing”delilun，jidingjia2yuandeshui，xiaoshoudilishengchandichaoguo500gongli，gongsijiuzhinengjigaosushoufeizhanhejiayouzhandagong。suoyikunlunshanzhugong5yuanyishang，yagenbukengqiongren。

nongfushanquanshiergeshuiyuandijunyunfenbulequanguozhuyaoxiaofeishichang，wanmeiqihele“500gongliyunshubanjing”，jiusuanliangkuaimai，lirunyebuhuibeiyunshuchengbenchidiao。xianzaishuiyuandixianzhikaicai，jingduixianghuaqianmaichunongfudexiaoguoyebukenengle。

dingjiaquan+qiangyunying，nongfushanquanyizhitangzhezhuandaqian，meirennengweixietadelirun，chufeitaziji。

yulunyingxianglenongfushanquanxiaoliang，jiuqianzhongtaishujuxianshi，nongfushanquanshangbannianshouwahahachuangshirenqushisuoyinfadeyulunshijianyingxiang，shangbannianxiaoshouweidamubiao。

danwawashijianzhuyaoyingxiangzai3-4yue，nongfushanquan5yuehaichuanglejinsanniandegujiaxingao。5yuehou，nongfushanquangujiacaijisuxiadie1/3。

shuomingbagujialaxialaideshitaziji，weilecijixiaoliang。nongfushanquan5yueshangxianlvpingshuihenkuaixianqijiagezhan。618，nongfushanquanguanfangqijiandianlvpingchunjingshui12pingzhuangdeshoujia，pingjunmeiping0.82yuan，yuandiyuwahaha、yibao。

jiagezhannengbunengbafeneqiangxialaibuhaoshuo，danzijidelirundagaixianxialai。maigeli7yuefabudeyanbaoyujinongfushanquanshangbannian，jinglirunzekenengyinweicuxiaohebutiexiaoshouqudaoerdie4.6%。

shichangxiandieweijing，chuledanxinjiagezhanbalirunpinxialai，yedanxinbahongpingshuidepinpaiyijiapindiao。

/ 02 / 拉低品牌溢价的隐忧

xiaofeipintouzilinianpaixushi，chanpinliburuqudaoli，qudaoliburupinpaili。

pinpailizuizhijiedetixianjiushijiantingdejiage。henduopinpaidetuishiwangwangshicongjiageshihengkaishide。ruyashilandai。

liangdahuazhuangpinlongtou，oulaiyayingshouhaizaichuangxingao，danyashilandaiyijinglianxu7jiduyingshouxiahua。yuanyinzhengshi，yashilandaijingchangdazhe，dangxiaofeizhedui300yuandexiaozongpingxiyiweichang，sheihaihuiweishangchangzhuanjuheqijiandianlidezhengjiashangpinmaidan？

nongfushanquanqingchupinpaidezhongyaoxing，suoyixintuilelvpingshuidajiagezhan。

zaiyixierenkanlai，nongfushanquanyongyigexintuichu、lingxiaoliangdechanpinmengdajiagezhan，shijiangtianjisaimacelvewandeluhuochunqing，lvpingshuiqiangxialaifene，haimeishanghaidaohongpingshuidepinpai。

zheigeshuofashiyizhongkenengxing，zoudehao，nongfushanquankenengkaochengbenyoushiyakuabieren，shizhanlvjixutisheng。danyeyoufengxian，kenenghuifenliunongfushanquanhongpingshuixiaoliang，batadepinpaiyijiawangxialayibu。

leisideshiqingyehenchangjian，lixiangl6shangshihou，zuixiandadebushibiejiachanpin，ershibazijial7dexiaoliangdalexialai。

suiranl6bil7dechicunxiaoyixie，haizuoleyixiejianpei，danl6fabuhou，kaozhebil7bianyi7wandejiage，lixiangl6shouxianjiangl7dezhouxiaoliangcong3000dadaole2000zuoyou。

huidaonongfushanquan，lvpingshuisuiranshuyuchunjingshui，xiangdangyuduihongpingshuidetianranshuizuolejianpei，dan8maoyipinghaishibi2yuan1pingbianyilebushao，jiagexiyinligouda。

youqishixiaofeizhemaishui，henduorenkaodeshi“shunshouyina”debianlixing，dangxinchanpin，genlaochanpinyongjizaiyigequdao，yigejingxiaoshangshoushang，quzhengduotongyipixiaofeizhedejumian。lvpingshuinengbunengfenliuhongpingshuixiaoliangyouhendayiwen。

yishiweijingkeyizhengyiguan，xiangbixiaoshizailishizhanghezhongdegezhonggeyangdeyinliao，zuizhangshengmingzhouqideyinliaodanpinkekoukeledanshengdebainianjianjihumeiyoudadechanpindiedaijiuyizhichangxiaoquanqiu。

shaoyoudeyiciyiwaishi，1985niankekoukelemianduibaishidebubujinbi，xuanbubuzaishengchanjiukele，ershicaiyongxinpeifanghexinmingzi。suihouzaoyuxiaolianghuatielu，huiguijingdianchanpinhou，kekoukelecaikaishiboluanfanzheng。

zheiyangkan，duiyuxiaofeipineryan，chanpinchuangxingengyinggaifangzaixinchanpinshang，mianduiyouhexinqiechengmingyijiudejibenmianchanpin，haishishaozheteng。bijingpinpaizhongchengheyonghuzhanxingshixiaofeipinzuidadehuchenghe，duozhetengyoushihouhuiruohuaxinzhi。

xianzaiyudaoweijidenongfushanquanhuishixiayigedaoxiadexiaofeimaoma？

/ 03 / 不会重蹈其它消费茅的覆辙

guoqusannian，xiaofeilongtouyilufuchong，dadie7chengdexiaofeimaobibijieshi。

dannongfushanquanshigeyiwai，ruguobusuanjinnian5yuehoudejisuxiadie，tazhibicengjingdeshizhigaodiandiequ25%，shizuijurenxingdexiaofeigu。

yanxia，suirannongfushanquanxianrujiagezhan，gujiakuaisuhuiche，danzhangqikan，nongfushanquanhennanxiangqitaxiaofeimaoyiyangdadie7-8cheng。

yuqitaxiaofeikongtouzuidadebutongshi，nongfushanquanrengyoujiaoqiangdechengzhangxing。

xiaofeiyulenghou，henduoxiaofeilongtouzengzhangchengya，23nianhaitian、jinlongyuyingshoutongbixiajiang4.1%、2.3%。dannongfushanquanyingshoutongbizengzhang28.36%。

nongfushanquannishizengzhangdehexinshifahuilexiaofeipinqudaochangjingfuyongdeyoushi。jijiezhuyijingkaituodequdao，xiaoshouyuelaiyueduodexinpinlei。

kaozhepingzhuangshuidaxialaidequdao，nongfushanquandechayinliaoyichengweiladonggongsizengzhangdeyinqing，chayinliaoyingshouzhanbiyijingcong2020niande13.5%tigaodao2023niande29.7%。

shijishang，qudaochangjingfuyongshimeigexiaofeilongtoudounengzuodeshi，biru，haitianjiezhujiangyoudaxiadequdao，xiangjikaifalehaoyouhejiangliao。

danbutongdeshi，dabufenxiaofeilongtouyanshendechanpinrengshuyushijiuzhanchangdecunliangchanpin，ernongfushanquanyazhudeshishiyouzengliangdeqianlichanpin。

zaozai2021nian，nongfushanquanbiantuichudongfangshuye，yiduchengweixiaofeizhekouzhongzuinanhedeyinliao，qianqixiaoliangyepujieguo，danrengjianchipeiyupinpai。

zhidaojiankanggainianxingqi，wutangchayijuntuqi，guoqu5nianfuhezengsugaoda20%yishang。nongfushanquanyejielihuodelegaozengzhang。

nongfushanquanyeweiguoneixiaofeilongtouduguojingjizhouqitigonglecankao。

jingjidiaozhengchuqi，guoneixiaofeipinlongtouzoudeluziduoshaoyoudianleisiribendegaoduanhuashengji。ruriben“haitian”，guijiawangmianduijingjixiaxinghou，tongguogaoduanhuatijia（qichanpinbitongleichanpinjiagegaochu30%），baochile3%-8%deyingshouzengsu。

guoneixiaofeilongtouhaitian、jinlongyuyezaijinliangnianxiangshangdiaojia，danxiaoguobumingxian，gongsiyingshouhaishichuxianlefuzengzhang。benzhishang，suirantongyangzaoyulejingjizhouqi，danrenjunshourushuipingbutong，guoneixiaofeilongtouhennanxianchaodaan。

duiyudangxiadexiaofeimaomeneryan，pojudezuihaofangshishijinkuaizhaodaozijidedongfangshuye。