文 | 氨基观察

xiayigexianxiangjiyimiaochanpin，zheishiguoqushichangduirsvyimiaoderenzhi。

rsv，jihuxidaohebaobingdu，zheishiyizhongshifen“jiaohua”debingdu，zhuantiao“ruanshizi”nie。yibanshenqiangtizhuangdenianqingrenganranlersv，yejiushigetoutengnaoredeganmaozhengzhuang。

danduiyingyouer、laonianrenzheixieruoshiquntilaishuo，rsvbingdudeweixiekeyishuoshizhimingde。genjujibingyufangkongzhizhongxindeshuju，meiguomeinianyou16wanminglaonianrenyinganranzhuyuan，6000-10000rensiyursv。

mianduizheiyangyigebingdu，youxiaodeyufangyimiaoxianranshigangxu。zheiyeshiyiyaoqiyezairsvyimiaolingyuqianpuhoujidehexinyuanyin，jiezhimuqian，quanqiuyiyou3kuanrsvyimiaohuopishangshi。

raner，jiuzaiqiyeduizheiyishichangxinxinmanmandeshihou，dajiqueqiaoranerzhi。jinnian6yuefen，meiguojibingyufangkongzhizhongxindiaozhenglejiezhongrenqundejianyi。

ciqian，rsvyimiaobeijianyiyongyu60suiyishangdelaonianrenjiezhong。diaozhengzhihou，fanweidafusuoxiao，juxianyu：

1、75suijiyishangdechengnianren

2、60-74suidegaofengxianqunti

bingqie，meiguojibingyufangkongzhizhongxinjianyi，jinzuoweidancizhongshengjiezhong。yejiushuo，rsvbuxiangliuganyimiaoyiyang，cunzaifugouxuqiu。

zheiyedaozhi，rsvyimiaoshichangdafusuoshui，xiaoshideshichangguimokenengchaoguo30yimeijin，yejiushidayue200yirenminbizuoyou。

01 “限制令”出台背后

rsvyimiaojiezhongrenqundediaozheng，keyishuoshibudeyierweizhi。

yuanyinzaiyu，yimiaodejiezhongkenengyuhanjiandeshenjingxitongjibingjilan-balizonghezheng（gbs）youguan。

gbsshijixingchihuanxingtanhuanchangjiandebingyin，yisizhideduichengxingwuli、fanshejiantuihuoxiaoshiweitezheng，bingqingchangzai 4 zhouzhineidadaogaofeng。

congzhiliaolaikan，gbsbingfeibuzhizhizheng，yixuejiangzhihuandengzhiliaocuoshizhihou，nengyoubijiaohaodeyuhou。

buguo，gbskenenghuichuxiankuaisujinxingxingshuairuo，daozhishuxiaoshizhishutianneihuxigongnengbuquan。ruguobunengshibiejijiangfashengdehuxishuaijie，kenenghuidaozhisiwanghuoqueyangyinqidecanji。

youshujuxianshi，you3％-10％degbsbinglihuichuxiansiwang，youqiduiyulaonianrenlaishuoshanghaigengda。yinci，duiyursvyimiaoyouchuxiangbsdegailvshijian，xianranshixuyaowomenguanzhude。

erzaizhenshishijiedeyanjiuzhong，jiezhongrsvyimiaodequnti，yeqiahaoyisichuxianlegbs。

genjuchubushuju，zaijiezhongyimiaohoude21tiannei，huiruideabrysvoyimiaojiezhongzhezhonggbsdefabinglvweimei100wanjiyimiao4.6li；erjieshougskgongsidearexvyyimiaoderenzhong，gbsdefabinglvweimei100wanji1.1li。

bingqie，youyanjiufaxian，jiezhongjiciyuegaodequnti，chuxiangbsdegailvyueda。suirangaifenxibushijuedingxingde，bingqiehaiyouxuduojuxianxing，danzheiyiranshixuyaojingtide。

tongshi，gskdejiaqiangzhenyanjiuxianshi，2jicidebaohuxiaoguo，sihubingmeiyoubi1jicigenghao。zhongzhongyinsuzhixia，meiguojibingyufangkongzhizhongxinchutailediaozhengjiezhongrenqun、jicidejucuo。

02 缩水的市场

jiezhongquntidafusuoxiao，wuyirangrsvyimiaoshichangxuqiuzhoujiang。

ciqian，shichangduiyursvyimiaoshichangqianjingleguan，jianlizaiyixialiangdaluojizhishang。

qiyi，jiushiguangfandejiezhongqunti。zaimeiguo，nianlingchaoguo60suiyishangdequntichaoguo8000wan。ruguozheixiequntinenggouzhubujiezhongrsvyimiao，bujinyiweizhezheiyishichangtianhuabanzugougao，qiexuqiushifangchijiu。

jinguangskciqianrenwei，rsvyimiaodeshentoulvtisheng，shiyigehuanmandeguocheng。xiaofeizhederenzhi，xuyaojianlizaichixudejiaoyushang，raneryidanwanchengshichangjiaoyu，jiufeichangyouyong。

qier，zeshifugoulvdeluoji。gskrenwei，rsvyimiaodejiezhongjianghuitongliuganyimiaoyiyang。yidanrenmenzai60duosuihe70duosuishiyangchenglejiezhongchangguirsvyimiaodexiguan，suizheshijiandetuiyi，zheigerenqunjiangfeichangyicong。huanjuhuashuo，tamenhuiyuanyuanbuduanditigongfugouxuqiu。

shentoulvzhubutisheng，diejiafugoulvluoji，gsktichuleqiyimiaoxiaoshouefengzhichao30yiyingbangdejijiyuqi。erzaishichangkanlai，rsvyimiaoshichangdezongguimokenengchaoguo47yimeijin。

buguo，zaijiezhongtiaojiandiaozhengzhihou，meiguorsvyimiaoshichangdeluojifashenglezhijiedegaibian。yifangmian，jiezhongquntidafujianshao，jigouairfinityyuce，mubiaoshouzhonghuijianshao44%，jihuyaozhan；lingyifangmian，fugouxuqiubuzai，rsvyimiaobianchengleyicixingdemaimai，zongxuqiujinyibujianshao。

zonghezheiliangdianbianhua，airfinityrenwei，2030nianrsvyimiaodeshichangguimo，jianghuicongciqianyuqide47yimeijin，jianshaozhi17yimeijin。huanjuhuashuo，shichangjianghuisuoshui30yimeijin。

dangran，yiqiehaiyoufanzhuankongjian。zhengrushangwensuoshuo，guanyuyimiaoshifouhuiyinqigbsxuyaojixuyanjiu。ruguojieguoduiyimiaoqiyeyouli，neimeshiqinghaiyouzhuanji。zhibuguo，zaicizhiqian，yimiaoqiyemenkenengxuyaozanshijieshouxianshi。

03 来自RSV疫苗的“教训”

zaishichangyuqiyanzhongsuoshuidebeijingxia，gskdenggongsideyimiaoqianjingjunjiangzaoshoubutongchengdudedaji。

zheiduiyuguoneiqiyelaishuo，tongyangkenengdailaixindetiaozhan。zairsvyimiaolingyu，youyugsk、huiruidengdayaoqidechubuchenggong，xiyinlezhongduojingzhengzhejinrushichang。

jinzaimrnajishulingyu，guoneiqiyejiuzhanxianchulejiasufazhandequshi。ziqunianniandiyilai，damianshengwu、shenxinshengwu、xingruiyiyao、jiachenxihaidenggongsidersv mrnayimiaoxiangjihuodelefdadelinchuangshiyanpizhun；tongshi，afanashengwu、shiyaojituandengyaoqiyezaijijituijinmrna rsvyimiaodeguoneilinchuangshenbao。

duiyuzheixiezaishichangleguanshiqijinrudeqiyelaishuo，xianzaiwuyixuyaomianduigengduoguanyuzhanlvexuanzedekaoliang。yinwei，rsvyimiaodegushizhengzaibianchengshigu。

shishishang，zheiyangde“jiaoxun”yebingfeidiyicifasheng。2020nianyibaotanpanzhiqian，shichangpubianyuqiguoneipd-1shichangguimojiangchaoqianyi。zaijiduleguanyuqizhixia，zhongduoyaoqiyongrupd-1saidao。

houmiandegushidajiadouzhidaole，neijuandaozhijiagezhanjilie，pd-1shichangguimoyanzhongweisuo。qianyishichangxiaoshi，dapiweishangshidepd-1guanxiantongyangxiaoshidewuyingwuzong。

bujinshipd-1，yanxiageleiremenyaowudeyanfadoukeyishuoshi“yongjibukan”。congadcdaoglp-1，yaoqibuyuanfangqimeiyigedayaodejihui。tichubufenjianggushideqiye，gengduoyaoqibiranshixiwangjiezhuzhongbangchanpingengjinyibu，danyuanjinghenmeihao，xianshiqueshicankude，

wulunshiguoqudepd-1，haishiyanxiadersvyimiao，bujiushizuihaodelizima？zheiyexiangshichangchuandaleyigezhongyaodexinxi：zaijinruxinlingyuzhiqian，qiyexuyaobaochigengjiajinshendetaidu。

shichangduiyuxinlingyudeyuqiwangwangguoyuleguan，wulunshicongqianzaihuanzhequntideguimohaishishentoulvdetishenglaikan，douqingxiangyuyiyizhongjiweijijidexintaijinxingyuce。

raner，zaiyaowuhuoyimiaodeshangyehuaguochengzhong，huishoudaoduozhongyinsudeyingxiang，biruliaoxiaodexianzhihuoqianzaifuzuoyongdeng，zheixieyinsuzuizhongkenengxianzhishichangqianjing，daozhishijijieguoyuyuqichuxianpiancha。ciwai，mangmugenfengheshichangneijuan，gengshiyoukenengchedigaibianshichangyuqi。

yinci，zaixiangmuqidongzhichu，yaoqiyinggaicaiquzuiweishenshendetaidu，erbushijinjinpingjieleguandeyuqi。guoduleguankenenghuidaozhizuizhongmianlinyanzhongdedaji，bijing，youshihou，gushidefanzhuankenengjiuzaiyixizhijian。