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dianligongsi“daotieqian”?liaoliaofudianjiabeihoudeshangyexuanjiyuguangfufadian

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电力公司“倒贴钱”?聊聊负电价背后的商业玄机与光伏发电

电价还能降到负数?

文|硅谷101

zuijinquanqiugediyuelaiyuepinfanchuxianyigefanchangshidexianxiang:yongdianbujinbuhuaqian,fanerhainengzhuanqian。

zaijinnian4yue,deguodianlishichangchuxianle50gexiaoshidefudianjia,wuduyouou,meiguojiazhoudedianjiayezaibufenshiduandiezhifushu。dao6yuefen,faguojixuchuxianfudianjiadeqingkuang,xianhuoshichangriqiandianjiadiedaosinianlaidezuididian:-5.76ouyuan/zhaowashi。

youxiediquyinweidiannengguoduodaozhijiageweifu,danhaiyouxiediququezhengmianlinzhediannengduanque,womenzhiqiandeyiqiwenzhangjiuliaoguo,suizherengongzhinengdefazhan,yixiediquchuxianle“yongdianhuang”deqingkuang。

zheipianwenzhangwomenjiulailiaoliao,fudianjiabeihoudeshangyexuanji,yijixinnengyuanshichangdeweilai。 

01 负电价与清洁能源

chapter 1.1 taiyangnengchanpinbiaosheng

shouxian,womenlaishuoshuoweishenmehuichuxianfudianjia。

fudianjiaqishibingbushishenmexinxianshi,wosuozaidemeiguojiazhouzaozai2017nianjiuchuxianlefudianjia,quniandeouzhoushichangyeyoubushaoguojiadianjiajieliandiedaofushu,baokuodeguo、helan、fenlan,qizhongdeguo、helanshenzhiyiduchuxianle-500ouyuan/zhaowashidejiage。

genjuoumengnengyuanjianguanhezuojigou(acer)fabudebaogao《oumengdianlipifashichangdezhuyaofazhan-2024nianshichangjiancebaogao》,zai2023nian,ouzhoudiqufudianjiacishujijuzengzhang,zonggong50gedianjiajingbiaodiquzhong,you27gediqudefudianjiacishu,dapo7nianjiandezuigaojilu。

fudianjiachuxiandezuizhijiedeyuanyinjiushi:gongjidayuxuqiu。yinweimouyigeshijianduantaiduodegongji,yongbudiaoyoucunbuxialai,zhinengxiwangxuqiucekuaidianyongdiaozheixieduoyudegongjiliang。

zaochengzheizhongqingkuangdemuhouheishou,zhengshiqingjienengyuanfadianliangguoshengle。zaijutiyidianlaishuojiushi,taiyangnengfadianbandeshuliangjijuzengjia。

yinweifengnengdehuibaozhouqijiaozhang,erjiansheshuilifadiandedabayexuyaohenjiu,zaijiashangshuilifadiansheshixuyaozaitedingdixingxiajianshe,suoyizuikuaizuijianjiedefangshijiushiguangfushebeile。

yiwomensuozaidejiazhouguiguweili,cong2014niandao2023nianzheishinianjian,gonggongshiyedetaiyangnengfadianliangyiduzengzhanglejin400%,quannianzuigaofadianliangdadao39320 gw/h。

jiazhousijiyangguangchongzu,qiezhengceyouhao,queshishihenshiheguangfufadiandediqu,genjuzuixindetongji,muqianjiazhoudeguangfufadianliangyijingdadaole47gw,zuyiwei1390wanhujiatinggongdian。

欧洲国家的情况也差不多,德国联邦网络管理局(BNetzA)统计数据显示,2023年,德国可再生能源新增装机容量17GW,总装jirongliangjiejin170gw,tongbizengzhang12%,kezaishengnengyuandezengzhangzhuyaolaiziguangfu,zhanzongzengzhangde83%。

zhisuoyiguangfufadianfazhanrucixunsu,xingyederengaosuwomen,yousangeyuanyin:

diyi,zuijin20nianjishutupolebushao,taiyangnengbandezhuanhualvcong10%zuoyoufanbeitishengdaole22%dao24%。

dier,suizhetaiyangnengbanchanliangdezengjia,shengchanchengbenyejiangdilebushao。

disan,dianjiayizhichengshangzhangqushi。

zheijigeyuanyindiejiahou,jiurangguangfufadiandechengben,yuchuantonghuashiranliaojibenqipingle,dadaolegrid parity(dianwangpingjia),jinergengduoyonghukaishiyongbaotaiyangneng。

zhengshiyinweiqingjienengyuanzengzhangguoyuxunsu,daozhidianlishichangzaibufenshiduangongguoyuqiu。

laiziweiruannengyuanzhanlvebudezishenxiangmujinglixuyixing(ethan xu),yebuchonglelingwailiangdianfudianjiadeyuanyin。

Chapter 1.2 鸭子曲线

xuyixing(ethan xu)

weiruannengyuanzhanlvebu zishenxiangmujingli

dianlixitongzhong,jishudiaojiedenengliyouxiandeqingkuangxia,yeshihuichuxianfudianjiade,suoyizaigongxubupingdengqingkuangxia,youyudiaojiedenengliyouxian,nanyikuaisudigaibiangongxuguanxi,yincichanshengfudedianjia。

haiyouyigeyuanyinjiushidianwangdezusai,jiubirushuohenduojubudiqu,taqishiyouhenduobianyidedian,mouxiedifangruguochuxianledianwangdezusai,zheixiebianyidediantachubuqu,qita(diqu)dedianjiarengranhengao,danshizaijubudiquhuichuxianfudedianjia。

zai2022nian,jiazhouzonggonglangfeile240wanzhaowashidedianliang,qizhong95%shitaiyangneng。daolezhengwuyangguangchongzushi,guangfufadianliangjiuhuidafutisheng,zheigeshihourenmendeyongdianxuqiujihuquankaotaiyangnengfadianjiunengmanzu,gonggongdianwangzhongdefuhebeipojiangdaodidian,ertaiyangluoshanhou,gonggongdianwangdexuqiuzaicijizeng。

zaizheizhongzhuangtaixia,dianwangdejingfuhe,jidianlixuqiujianqukezaishengnengyuan,jiangcheng“u”xing,zheiyebeichengwei“yaziquxian”(duck curve),yinweicishidequxiankanshangqujiuxiangyazideduzi。

danruguozaiguangfufadiandegaofengshiduan,chaochudediannengbunengbeishunlixiaona,jianghuiduidianwangzaochengsunshang,shenzhidailaianquanyinhuan。

dianlixitongtashiyigefeichangyouyisidexitong,jiushitashishikekedouxuyaobaozheng,yongdianlianghefadianliangyigepinghengdeguanxi,cainengrangzheigewulixitongzhengchangdiyunxing。

ruguoguangfudefadianliangduotaiduodehua,kenenghuizaochengdianwangwendingxingdewenti,fengdianheguangfu,tadouyoujianxiexinghebukeyucexing,haiyoutahuidailaidianyadebodong,yingxiangdiannengdezhiliang。

suoyidianchangweilecujinxiaohao,caichuxianlefudianjiadeqingkuang。kenengnijiezhexiangwen:jirandianliguoshengzheimeduo,weishenmebuzhijiezantingfadianni?dianligongsiyebushimeinagexiaosuanpansuanguozheibizhang。

ruguotingdiaofadianji,neisunshijianghuigengda。chuantongdehuoli、henengfadianchang,fadianjideqitingchengbenfeichangda,zhongqifadianjishenzhibiyizhikaizhesuoxiaohaodechengbengenggao,pinfanguantinghuiyingxiangshebeishouminghexingneng,haikenengcuoguohouxudegaodianjiashiduan。

meidiandeqidonghetingzhiwangwangshixuyaojigexiaoshi,tongshihaibansuizhebijiaodadechengben,xuyaoxiaohaoewaideranmeilaidianhuoheshengwen,yidadaozhengchangyunxingsuoxudewenduheyali。

erhedianjihuxuyaoyizhibaochiwendingdefadian,suoyijiuhennanjinxingdiaojie,suoyiweilebimiandiaojiefadianliangdailaidejudadejingjisunshi,meidianhehediantakenenghuixuanzejixufadian,napashifudianjia,taningyuanchengdanxiaoyidiandefudianjiadailaidesunshi,tayebuyuanyiqudiaojiezijidefadiandailaigengdadesunshi,suoyizheishuyulianghaixiangquanquqiqing。

suoyidianligongsidawansuanpanhou,ningyuanhuaqiancijiyongdian,yebunengrangfadianshebeibaibaisunhao。

ruguoshizaixiaohaobudiao,weilebaohudianwang,zuihoudejueding,jiangshisheqizheixieqingjienengyuan。

chuledianliyiwai,meiguodekesasizhou、jialifuniyazhouheyalisangneizhouzaijinnian5yueyechuxianletianranqijiagebianchengfushudeqingkuang。

yuanyinshizheixiediquyongyushusongtianranqideguandaojinruleweihuqi,guoduodetianranqishusongbuzou,erpoyuhuanbaoyali,yebunengbeibaibairanshaodiao,yincidailaijudadechucunchengben。youyumeiguotianranqifadianliangzhanbizuigao,dadaolejin40%,yezaidangshijinyibudaozhiledianjiaxiadie。

danwomenzaizuoyanjiudeshihoufaxian,maodundeyidianshi:anlishuo,fudianjiadechuxianyinggairangjuminhuozhegongsiyongdiangengbianyileduiba,yinweiwoyongdiannijiwoqianma,danshishishi,bufendiqudejuminyongdianchengbenfanerzaitigao,dajiabingmeiyouzhandaofudianjiadebianyi,zheiyoushizenmehuishini?

02 新能源的另一面:公用事业死亡螺旋

zheigewentishaoweiyoudianfuza,zaihuidazhiqian,womenxianjiandanjieshaoxiadianlishichangdeyunzuomoshi。

fadianzhanhuishengchandianli,ranhouchuanshudaodianligongsi,yekeyichengzhiweigonggongdianwang,cishifadianfangjiuhuihuodelaizidianligongsidebaochou,zheigejiagechengwei“shangwangdianjia”(net price),gonggongdianwangzaijiangzheixiedianmaijiqiyehuogeren。

dianlijiaoyiyecunzaipifashichanghelingshoushichang。pifashichangzhijinxingdazongdianlijiaoyi,tongchangyizhaowashi(mwh)weidanwei,suoweide“xianhuoshichang”,yeshuyupifashichangzhong。

erlingshoushichang,zeyoudianligongsilaimianxiangzhongduanyonghu,biruputongjumin、xiaoxingqiye、shangyejigoudeng,yongdianliangxiangduigengshao。

dangran,quanqiugediqudianwangdeyunzuomoshidoubutong,biruyouxiediqufadianzhanhedianwangdoushuyutongyiqiye,huozhedaxingqiyezhijiexiangfadianzhanjinxinggoudian,qizhongdehuanjiejiuhuiyousuobianhua。

dianlishigefeichangfuzadexitong,wufayigaierlun,womenjulidemoshizhishibianyudajialijiehoumiandeneirong。

xuyixing(ethan xu)jiugaosuwomen,zaimuqiandianlishichangdeyunzuomoshixia,putongyonghujiaodedianfeibingbushizhijiegenfudianjiayouxiangguanxing。youdediqukenengshouyi,youdedifangkenengnihaiyaodaotieqian。

fudianjiadehua,jibenshangshizhicunzaiyudianlipifashichangshangde。putongdeyongdianyonghu,tazhuyaoshizailingshoushichangshang,gendangdidedianligongsiqumaidian,suoyiputongyonghuqishihenshaoshoudaofudianjiadeyingxiang,erdianligongsi,takenenghuigenjuzhengniandegoudiandepingjundechengben,xiangjuminshouqudianfei,taxiangdangyu,bangputongdeyonghu,pinghualedianjiadebodong,suoyiputongyonghushijishangshijiechubudaofudianjiade。

zaizheizhongmoshixia,suiranjuminmeijiechudaofudianjia,yenengxiangshoudaogengdideyongdianchengben。danyouxiediqudemoshifanerhuijijumindailaiewaifudan。birubufenouzhoudiqu。

zaiouzhouneibian,queshishiyoushangwangdianjiazheiyangdedongxi,shizhengfuzhidingleyonglaibaozheng,qingjienengyuandefadianzhe,nenggouyouyigedoudidedianjia,suoyidangdianlishichangzhongtadepifadianjiadiyushangwangdianjiadeshihou,zhengfuhuijinxingbutie,yejiushishuodangchuxianfudianjiadeshihou,zhengfuyehuijinxingbutie,shenzhibutiedebizhengdianjiahaiyaogengduo,erzheixiequeshishihuizhuanjiadaoxiaofeizheshenshangde。

yinweiyaoguliqingjienengyuanfazhan,yaoduitajinxingbutiedehua,neizhengfujiuxuyao,zhaodaozheigeqianqubutieqingjienengyuandefadianzhe,erzheigechajia,zhengfujiubazheigechengbenjiuzhuanjiadaolexiaofeizhedetoushang。

deguojiuyoubaogaozhichu,dangdianwangmaijiqiyedepifajiage,diyufujifadianzhandeshangwangdianjiashi,qizhongdechaejiuhuizaijiazailingshoushichangdeshoujiazhong,laimibudianwangdeyunyingchengben,jihusuoyoulingshoushichangxiaofeizhe,douxuyaozaizhifudianfeishijiaonazheixiangshuikuan。

pifashichangdianjiagenggao,lingshoushichangdefujiafeijiuhuiyuedi,fanzhi,dangpifajiajiangdaolingyixia,chengweifujiagedeshihou,lingshoushichangyonghuchengdandeshuikuanjiuhuizengjia。

erdaolejiazhoudiquyoubuyiyangle,youyuzhengcezhichi,jiazhoujuminkaishidaliangshiyongxiaoxingguangfufadianshebei,yejiushiwudingdetaiyangnengban,danzhei,fanerkenengranggonggongdianwangdeyongdianchengbenbiandegenggao。

yinweidanggengduojiatingshiyongwudingtaiyangneng,tamenconggonggongdianwangzhonggoumaidianlijiangjianshao,dianwangfadianyuweihushiyougudingchengbende,ruguodianwangyonghujianshao,neimeigerenfentandegudingchengbenjiangbiandegenggao,ranhoudaozhigengduodeyonghulikaigonggongdianwangzhuaneryongbaoguangfufadian,bingjinyibutigaogonggongdianwangdejiage,zheizhongqingkuangbeichengwei“utility death spiral”,gongyongshiyesiwangluoxuan。

suiranxinnengyuanfadianliang,tebieshitaiyangnengzaijinnianlaichuxianbiaosheng,yedailaileyishangwomenshuodezhongzhongwenti,tongshiyehuiyinfahuanbaorenshiduitaiyangnengfadianbandewuranhenenghaodanyou,dansuizhetanzhonghechengweiquanqiugeguohegedagongsidemubiao,qingjienengyuandezengzhangjiaobuyiranbuhuitingzhi。

guojinengyuanshuyuce,dao2025nianshi,kezaishengnengyuanjiangchaoyuemeitanfadian,chengweiquanqiudianlidezhuyaolaiyuan。

meiguoyinxingmeiguonengyuanbaogaoyexianshi,yujidao2030nian,fengnenghetaiyangnengfenbiejiangzengjia100gwhe240gwdefadianrongliang。

tongshiyoufenxiyuji,youyumeiguozhengfujihuadao2050nianshixiannet-zero“jinglingpaifang”,jianghuidaidongbeimeidetaiyangnengchanyeshichangguimocong250yimeiyuanzengzhangdao1207yimeiyuan。

neimejiexialaiwomenzailaihuidayigewenti:zhengruwomenzhiqian《aidianlizhengduozhan》neiqilitidaodedanyou,suizheaikejidebaofa,meiguojiangyinglaixinyilundianlixuqiudezengzhang,neimedalifazhanqingjienengyuan,shifounengchengweijiejuefanganni?

03 电能失衡与未来电力缺口

zaihuidazheigewentizhiqian,womendexianlejie,weihemeiguoyibianchuxianqingjienengyuanguosheng,lingyibianquepinfanbaochudianlibuzudexinwen。

youxiedifanghuiyouhenduodeqingjienengyuan,danshitaxuyaozugouduodedianlichuanshuxian,baqingjienengyuanconggongdianhetaiyangnengziyuanbijiaofengfudedifang,chuanshudaoyongdianzhongxin。

danshimeiguodedianlixitongyouzheimeyigewenti,tabushiyigelianjiedehenhaodedianlixitong,jiumeiguoxibu、meiguodongbuhedekesasizhou,tashisangexiangduidulidedianlixitong。

tongshizaimeiyigedulidianlixitongdangzhong,gegediqudedianlixitong,tayoushiyouyidiangeziweizhengdezhuangtai,suirantamenzhijianshiyouyixiedianlichuanshude,danzheigedianlichuanshudenenglibingbugouda,suoyizheixiedianlibingbunenggouyouxiaodi,youxiaodichuanshudaotazhenzhengxuyaobeixuyaodedifang。

qishizheigewentidejiejuesiluhenjiandan,neijiushiduojiansheqingjienengyuansheshihedianlichuanshuxian,meiguozhengfuyedequezaituijinxiangguanzhengce,danzaizhixingqilaiqueyudaolezhongzhongkunnan。

qizhongshejidaohenduoyuanyin,birushuozhengzhi、zhengce、minyidengdeng,jiubirushuoyongminyilaijuli,qishimeiguorentaxiwangnijianshegengduodedianlichuanshuxian,danshitayoubuxiwangnizaitajiamenkoujianlidianlichuanshuxian。zheijiushipubiandeyigexiangfa,zheigexiangfazaimeiguoyouyigecijiaonimby,jiu not in my backyard(biejianzaiwojiafujin),jiushinikeyizuoduigonggonghaodeshiqing,danshibuyaozaiwojiamenkouzuo。

youyigelizijiushidagaiyiliangnianqian,zaimeiguodedongbeibudiqu,dangshishixiangjianyitiao 145 yinglizhangdedianlichuanshuxian,ranhouzheigexiangmubeiyinweifalvdeyuanyin,beizhengzhengtuoleliangniandeshijian。dangdideyixiehuanbaozhuyizhe,heqitadeyixiezuzhitichulaiyaofanduijianshezheigedianlichuanshuxiande,jiutamendeliyoujiushi,jianshedianlichuanshuxiankenenghuixuyaokanshu,kenenghuiyingxiangdaodangdideshengtaidengdeng。

genjuxuyixing(ethan xu)duiwomenfenxiangdeshuju,meiguodedianlichuanshuxiandejianshedagaimeinianyidiyu1%desuduzaijianshe,erweiruannengyuanzhanlvebudeyanjiufaxian,ruguomeiguozhendeyaoshixiandaguimodeqingjiedianli,zhishaoxuyaomeinianyidayue2.5%zuoyoudesudu,quzengzhanghekuojiantazijidechuanshuxianhewangluo,danxianzaidesudu,shiyuanyuangenbushangxuyaodesudude。

chuledianlifazhanbujunheng,suizhekejifazhan,weilaibushaoxingyejiangchuxianjudadedianlixuqiuquekou。meiguoyinxingfabiaodemeiguonengyuanbaogaozhong,jiangmeiguoyongdianzengzhangzhuyaoguinaweisangeyuanyin:

diyigeyuanyinlaiziyuaifazhan。

womenzhiqiandeshipinjiangguo,zheiliangnianyinweishengchengshiaidebaofa,juanqileyigurechao,bushaokejijutoufenfenchijuzijiansheaishujuzhongxin,dailailepangdadeyongdianxuqiu。

徐熠兴(Ethan Xu)

微软能源战略部 资深项目经理

shujuzhongxinzheigexingyedagaihuiyimeinian15%zuoyoudesudujinxingzengzhang,xiangjintiandehua,shujuzhongxinzhizhandaolemeiguozhenggeyongdianliangde2.5%zuoyou,ranhouyujidao2030nianzuoyou,shujuzhongxinzhanmeiguozhenggeyongdianliangdebizhong,huizhandao7.5%zuoyou,suoyizheishiyigebijiaodadefeiyue。

ermeiguosuirandianlifazhanzao,danyouyuqugongyehuadelinian,shiduonianlai,zhengtiyongdianbingmeiyoujiaodazengzhang,jiashangmeiguodejijiannenglijiaoruo,daozhidianwangjianshesudugenbushangaidefazhanxuqiu。

diergeyuanyinshiduogexingyededianqihua。biruxinnengyuanqiche,suiranjinqiyousuoyuleng,danmeiguoyinxingrenwei,bulunzengzhangruhefanghuan,dianchedezhengtishuliangyiranhuitisheng,neimechongdianxuqiuhaishihuijixuzengjia。

shujubiaoming,meiguoguangshizai2023nian,xiaoxingdiandongchededianlixuqiujiudadaole1.6gw。dajiakeyikandao,zheigezengzhangquxianhaishifeichangdouqiaode。

chuleminyongdiandongchewai,bushaozhongxinghedaxinggongyecheliang,yezhengzhuanxiangdiandonghua,zheixiecheliangjingchangxuyaozhangtuzuoye,gongzuoshijianhexingshilichengxiangbiminyongchehuigengzhang。yincimeiguoyinxingguji,dao2030nian,diandongqichedefazhanjiangjimeiguodailai10gwdedianlifudan。

haiyoulouyudedianqihua,birushuoyongdianqudaitishineidegongnuan,tongshihaiyouzhizaoyededianqihua,jiubirushuohenduochuantongdezhizaoye,takenengshiyongshiyoudengdenglaitigongnengyuande,xianzaiyezaixiangbanfa,yongdianlaidefangshilaitidaimouxiedegongyedeshengchanliucheng。

disangeyuanyinzeshilaiziyugongchangdejiansheyufazhan,yejiushizhizaoyedehuiliu。

jirandiandongqicheshiqushi,neishengchankendingbunengshao。birushuo,meiguoyinxingdeshujujiuyujidao2027nian,meiguojingneidianchigongchangdedianlixuqiujiangdadao3.5gw。

tongshi,meiguoweilejiangwailiudexinpianzhizaochanyeqianhuiguonei,tuichule《xinpianfaan》,yujixindexinpianzengzhangheshengchanjiangjixudailai2gwdexuqiu。

zonghejisuanqitagedalingyudezengzhangxuqiu,kaolvdaoxinzengdeqingjienengyuanyujijiangtuiyidehuolifadianchanghou,meiguoyinxingrenwei,dao2030nian,dianlixuqiujiangzengjia70gw,dianwangdewendingxinghuichengshouquyuxingdetiaozhan,huolifadiankenengwufamanzuzheixiexuqiu。

womenzhiqiandeshipinyetidaoguo,jijuzengzhangdeyongdianxuqiu,yeduitanzhonghedemubiaotichuletiaozhan,neijiranhuolifadianbugoule,fazhanqingjienengyuannengfoujiejuezheixiewentini?

04 清洁能源如何撑起下一轮用电浪潮

womenmuqianmianlindexianshishi:yibianshiqingjienengyuantaiduo,daozhidiannengyichu;eryibiandiannengquekoujuda,yinfakejijutoufenfenqiangdian。

zaikekonghejubianshixianzhiqian,muqiandeqingjienengyuanxingyenengfouzhichengqixiayilundianlixuqiuzengzhangni?

woshirenweidalifazhanqingjie,shinenggoufeichangyouxiaodi,tianbudianlidejudaxuqiude,danshiwomenyaozhidao,dianlixitongtashiyigexuyaoshishipinghengdexitong。suoyizaidalifazhanqingjienengyuantongshi,yexuyaodalifazhanchuneng,jiubaozhengqingjienengyuan,nenggoubijiaoyouxiaodiliyongqilai。

chuneng,jianghuishipinghengqingjienengyuangongxuguanxizhongyaodeyihuan。

diannengcunchufangshizhuyaofenweidianchi、choushuixunenghezhiqing。choushuixunengduidixingyaoqiugao,jianshechengbenda,erzhiqingchengbenyebudi,muqiandezhuanhuaxiaolvdagaizhiyou40%,suoyixianzaiguangfudianchangpubiancaiyongdianchifangan,fadianliangguodashijidianchichongdian,yewanzairangdianchifangdian,qidao“xuefengtiangu”dezuoyong。

suiranchunengjishu、shebeichengbenyijixiaolvyizhishigetiaozhan,danmuqiantaiyangnenggongsimen,douzaiquanlifazhanheyouhuachunengfangan。

guoqudeshinianzuoyou,xiangguangfushebeidagaitadechengbenxiajiangleyou90%,erjintiankanqilai,chunengshebeihenyoukenenghuijingligenguangfushebeileiside,yigechengbenxiajiangdeguocheng。qishiguoqushinian,chunengshebeidechengbenyijingxiajiangle80%zuoyou,suoyiwobijiaoleguandirenwei,chunengshebeidezheigechengben,zhihoujinianhaihuijixuxiajiang,nenggougengdaguimodiyingyongdaodianwangdangzhong。

chulechunengwentiwai,juedingguangfufadiannengfouzhichengqizheilundianlixuqiudelingyigeyinsu,jiushidanweimianjidezhuanhuanxiaolv,huanjuhuashuo,guangfufadiannengfouzaizhandijinliangxiaodeqingkuangxia,fachuzugoudedianneng。

yeneirenshijiwomenjulegehenxingxiangdelizi,ruguoyaozhichengqiquanmeiguodeyongdian,zhixuyaopusheyiwanpingfangyinglidetaiyangnengbanjiuxing,ruguobameiguosuoyoudegaosugongludoupushangtaiyangnengban,neifachulaidedianquanmeijiuyongbuwanle。

danduiyuxinnengyuanfadianlaishuo,bulunshiguangfuhaishifengneng,doushiyaokaotianchifande,zaihuanjingtiaojianbulixiangdeshihou,haidekaochuantongnengyuanqubuchong。

suoyiqingjienengyuanmuqianjiaodadepingjing,jiuzaiyuruhelinghuodiaodu。

qishizaidianlidezheigefazhanguochengzhong,womenshiyouyigesuoweidebukenengsanjiao,yigejiushikekaoxing,yigeshiqingjie,haiyouyigeshichengbendilian。

duiyuqingjienengyuanlaishuo,tashimanzulezheisangezhibiaodangzhongdeqingjie、chengbendi,danshiyinweiqingjienengyuandefadianxuyaokaotianchifan,tadekekaoxingshibutaigaode。

chuantongdenengyuantayezhishizhandaolezheigebukenengsanjiaodangzhongdeliangge,yigeshitakekaoxingbijiaogao,yinweinishisuishikeyikongzhifadianliang,tongshitadechengbenyebusuantebiegao,danshichuantongdefadiantajiushibugouqingjie。

suoyiwomenxuyaohelidedapeibutongdefadianjishu,nenggoushixianzheigebukenengsanjiaodangzhongdemeiyixiang。

zaiweilaideersanshiniandangzhong,zheigeqingjienengyuanhechuantongnengyuanshihuigongcunde,zheiyangcainengbaozhengdianlixitongzhong,nenggoujikekaoyouyouzugouduodeqingjienengyuan,tongshichengbenhaibushineimegao。

weilejiejuelinghuoxingdewenti,bushaogongsikaishishiyongaidazaodexunidianchanglaidiaokonggongdian。

zheiyangdexunidianchangmeiyouxianshizhongdeshiti,tadezhuyaogongnengzaiyudiaodudianli,rangdiannengshixianxiaolvyujingjidezuidahua。

youleaidejiachi,xitongjiunenggengzhunquedeyuceweilaideqingkuang。

birujiexialaidetianqiruhe、weilaidenageshijian、nagedidiandeyongdianxuqiujiangruhebianhua、dianjiashitigaohaishijiangdidengdeng,zheiyangjiunengkongzhichunengxitonghelidechongfangdian,huozhejiangtongyigedianwangnei,diannengguoshengdefadiansheshi,diaoduchuanshudaoxuqiugengdadediqu。

zhideyitideshi,xunidianwangjishu,buguangshikeyiyonglaidiaokongqingjienengyuan,hainengpinghengchuantongnengyuandefuzai,rangqingjienengyuanyuchuantongnengyuanhuxiangpeihe,dadaozuidahuadeliyong。

suiranmuqianqingjienengyuandezhanbihaibusuangao,quanmeikezaishengnengyuandefadianbilijinzhanle21.4%,dangenjulutoushedexiaoxi,dao2030nian,qingjienengyuandefadianzhanbijiangdadaoquanqiudianlidesanfenzhiyiyishang。

womenyexiwangqingjienengyuannengjiasupukai,zaigezhongdejishumianshang,wulunshixiaolv、chunenghaishixunidianwang,dounengjinkuaijixuyouhua,yetongshijiejuehaotaiyangnengmianbanmianlindeyixiezhengyiwenti,rangquanqiujianpaimubiaojinyibujinzaoshixian。

tebieshimuqianquanqiumianlinxindeyilunaidianlizhan,renleiduinengyuandexuqiu,zhihuiyuelaiyueda。

dankejifazhandechuzhong,yinggaishichuangzaogengjiameihaodeshenghuohuanjing,ruguowenmingjinbushiyixishenghuanjingweidaijia,zheiyouhechangbushishebenzhumoni?

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文|硅谷101

zuijinquanqiugediyuelaiyuepinfanchuxianyigefanchangshidexianxiang:yongdianbujinbuhuaqian,fanerhainengzhuanqian。

zaijinnian4yue,deguodianlishichangchuxianle50gexiaoshidefudianjia,wuduyouou,meiguojiazhoudedianjiayezaibufenshiduandiezhifushu。dao6yuefen,faguojixuchuxianfudianjiadeqingkuang,xianhuoshichangriqiandianjiadiedaosinianlaidezuididian:-5.76ouyuan/zhaowashi。

youxiediquyinweidiannengguoduodaozhijiageweifu,danhaiyouxiediququezhengmianlinzhediannengduanque,womenzhiqiandeyiqiwenzhangjiuliaoguo,suizherengongzhinengdefazhan,yixiediquchuxianle“yongdianhuang”deqingkuang。

zheipianwenzhangwomenjiulailiaoliao,fudianjiabeihoudeshangyexuanji,yijixinnengyuanshichangdeweilai。 

01 负电价与清洁能源

chapter 1.1 taiyangnengchanpinbiaosheng

shouxian,womenlaishuoshuoweishenmehuichuxianfudianjia。

fudianjiaqishibingbushishenmexinxianshi,wosuozaidemeiguojiazhouzaozai2017nianjiuchuxianlefudianjia,quniandeouzhoushichangyeyoubushaoguojiadianjiajieliandiedaofushu,baokuodeguo、helan、fenlan,qizhongdeguo、helanshenzhiyiduchuxianle-500ouyuan/zhaowashidejiage。

genjuoumengnengyuanjianguanhezuojigou(acer)fabudebaogao《oumengdianlipifashichangdezhuyaofazhan-2024nianshichangjiancebaogao》,zai2023nian,ouzhoudiqufudianjiacishujijuzengzhang,zonggong50gedianjiajingbiaodiquzhong,you27gediqudefudianjiacishu,dapo7nianjiandezuigaojilu。

fudianjiachuxiandezuizhijiedeyuanyinjiushi:gongjidayuxuqiu。yinweimouyigeshijianduantaiduodegongji,yongbudiaoyoucunbuxialai,zhinengxiwangxuqiucekuaidianyongdiaozheixieduoyudegongjiliang。

zaochengzheizhongqingkuangdemuhouheishou,zhengshiqingjienengyuanfadianliangguoshengle。zaijutiyidianlaishuojiushi,taiyangnengfadianbandeshuliangjijuzengjia。

yinweifengnengdehuibaozhouqijiaozhang,erjiansheshuilifadiandedabayexuyaohenjiu,zaijiashangshuilifadiansheshixuyaozaitedingdixingxiajianshe,suoyizuikuaizuijianjiedefangshijiushiguangfushebeile。

yiwomensuozaidejiazhouguiguweili,cong2014niandao2023nianzheishinianjian,gonggongshiyedetaiyangnengfadianliangyiduzengzhanglejin400%,quannianzuigaofadianliangdadao39320 gw/h。

jiazhousijiyangguangchongzu,qiezhengceyouhao,queshishihenshiheguangfufadiandediqu,genjuzuixindetongji,muqianjiazhoudeguangfufadianliangyijingdadaole47gw,zuyiwei1390wanhujiatinggongdian。

欧洲国家的情况也差不多,德国联邦网络管理局(BNetzA)统计数据显示,2023年,德国可再生能源新增装机容量17GW,总装jirongliangjiejin170gw,tongbizengzhang12%,kezaishengnengyuandezengzhangzhuyaolaiziguangfu,zhanzongzengzhangde83%。

zhisuoyiguangfufadianfazhanrucixunsu,xingyederengaosuwomen,yousangeyuanyin:

diyi,zuijin20nianjishutupolebushao,taiyangnengbandezhuanhualvcong10%zuoyoufanbeitishengdaole22%dao24%。

dier,suizhetaiyangnengbanchanliangdezengjia,shengchanchengbenyejiangdilebushao。

disan,dianjiayizhichengshangzhangqushi。

zheijigeyuanyindiejiahou,jiurangguangfufadiandechengben,yuchuantonghuashiranliaojibenqipingle,dadaolegrid parity(dianwangpingjia),jinergengduoyonghukaishiyongbaotaiyangneng。

zhengshiyinweiqingjienengyuanzengzhangguoyuxunsu,daozhidianlishichangzaibufenshiduangongguoyuqiu。

laiziweiruannengyuanzhanlvebudezishenxiangmujinglixuyixing(ethan xu),yebuchonglelingwailiangdianfudianjiadeyuanyin。

Chapter 1.2 鸭子曲线

xuyixing(ethan xu)

weiruannengyuanzhanlvebu zishenxiangmujingli

dianlixitongzhong,jishudiaojiedenengliyouxiandeqingkuangxia,yeshihuichuxianfudianjiade,suoyizaigongxubupingdengqingkuangxia,youyudiaojiedenengliyouxian,nanyikuaisudigaibiangongxuguanxi,yincichanshengfudedianjia。

haiyouyigeyuanyinjiushidianwangdezusai,jiubirushuohenduojubudiqu,taqishiyouhenduobianyidedian,mouxiedifangruguochuxianledianwangdezusai,zheixiebianyidediantachubuqu,qita(diqu)dedianjiarengranhengao,danshizaijubudiquhuichuxianfudedianjia。

zai2022nian,jiazhouzonggonglangfeile240wanzhaowashidedianliang,qizhong95%shitaiyangneng。daolezhengwuyangguangchongzushi,guangfufadianliangjiuhuidafutisheng,zheigeshihourenmendeyongdianxuqiujihuquankaotaiyangnengfadianjiunengmanzu,gonggongdianwangzhongdefuhebeipojiangdaodidian,ertaiyangluoshanhou,gonggongdianwangdexuqiuzaicijizeng。

zaizheizhongzhuangtaixia,dianwangdejingfuhe,jidianlixuqiujianqukezaishengnengyuan,jiangcheng“u”xing,zheiyebeichengwei“yaziquxian”(duck curve),yinweicishidequxiankanshangqujiuxiangyazideduzi。

danruguozaiguangfufadiandegaofengshiduan,chaochudediannengbunengbeishunlixiaona,jianghuiduidianwangzaochengsunshang,shenzhidailaianquanyinhuan。

dianlixitongtashiyigefeichangyouyisidexitong,jiushitashishikekedouxuyaobaozheng,yongdianlianghefadianliangyigepinghengdeguanxi,cainengrangzheigewulixitongzhengchangdiyunxing。

ruguoguangfudefadianliangduotaiduodehua,kenenghuizaochengdianwangwendingxingdewenti,fengdianheguangfu,tadouyoujianxiexinghebukeyucexing,haiyoutahuidailaidianyadebodong,yingxiangdiannengdezhiliang。

suoyidianchangweilecujinxiaohao,caichuxianlefudianjiadeqingkuang。kenengnijiezhexiangwen:jirandianliguoshengzheimeduo,weishenmebuzhijiezantingfadianni?dianligongsiyebushimeinagexiaosuanpansuanguozheibizhang。

ruguotingdiaofadianji,neisunshijianghuigengda。chuantongdehuoli、henengfadianchang,fadianjideqitingchengbenfeichangda,zhongqifadianjishenzhibiyizhikaizhesuoxiaohaodechengbengenggao,pinfanguantinghuiyingxiangshebeishouminghexingneng,haikenengcuoguohouxudegaodianjiashiduan。

meidiandeqidonghetingzhiwangwangshixuyaojigexiaoshi,tongshihaibansuizhebijiaodadechengben,xuyaoxiaohaoewaideranmeilaidianhuoheshengwen,yidadaozhengchangyunxingsuoxudewenduheyali。

erhedianjihuxuyaoyizhibaochiwendingdefadian,suoyijiuhennanjinxingdiaojie,suoyiweilebimiandiaojiefadianliangdailaidejudadejingjisunshi,meidianhehediantakenenghuixuanzejixufadian,napashifudianjia,taningyuanchengdanxiaoyidiandefudianjiadailaidesunshi,tayebuyuanyiqudiaojiezijidefadiandailaigengdadesunshi,suoyizheishuyulianghaixiangquanquqiqing。

suoyidianligongsidawansuanpanhou,ningyuanhuaqiancijiyongdian,yebunengrangfadianshebeibaibaisunhao。

ruguoshizaixiaohaobudiao,weilebaohudianwang,zuihoudejueding,jiangshisheqizheixieqingjienengyuan。

chuledianliyiwai,meiguodekesasizhou、jialifuniyazhouheyalisangneizhouzaijinnian5yueyechuxianletianranqijiagebianchengfushudeqingkuang。

yuanyinshizheixiediquyongyushusongtianranqideguandaojinruleweihuqi,guoduodetianranqishusongbuzou,erpoyuhuanbaoyali,yebunengbeibaibairanshaodiao,yincidailaijudadechucunchengben。youyumeiguotianranqifadianliangzhanbizuigao,dadaolejin40%,yezaidangshijinyibudaozhiledianjiaxiadie。

danwomenzaizuoyanjiudeshihoufaxian,maodundeyidianshi:anlishuo,fudianjiadechuxianyinggairangjuminhuozhegongsiyongdiangengbianyileduiba,yinweiwoyongdiannijiwoqianma,danshishishi,bufendiqudejuminyongdianchengbenfanerzaitigao,dajiabingmeiyouzhandaofudianjiadebianyi,zheiyoushizenmehuishini?

02 新能源的另一面:公用事业死亡螺旋

zheigewentishaoweiyoudianfuza,zaihuidazhiqian,womenxianjiandanjieshaoxiadianlishichangdeyunzuomoshi。

fadianzhanhuishengchandianli,ranhouchuanshudaodianligongsi,yekeyichengzhiweigonggongdianwang,cishifadianfangjiuhuihuodelaizidianligongsidebaochou,zheigejiagechengwei“shangwangdianjia”(net price),gonggongdianwangzaijiangzheixiedianmaijiqiyehuogeren。

dianlijiaoyiyecunzaipifashichanghelingshoushichang。pifashichangzhijinxingdazongdianlijiaoyi,tongchangyizhaowashi(mwh)weidanwei,suoweide“xianhuoshichang”,yeshuyupifashichangzhong。

erlingshoushichang,zeyoudianligongsilaimianxiangzhongduanyonghu,biruputongjumin、xiaoxingqiye、shangyejigoudeng,yongdianliangxiangduigengshao。

dangran,quanqiugediqudianwangdeyunzuomoshidoubutong,biruyouxiediqufadianzhanhedianwangdoushuyutongyiqiye,huozhedaxingqiyezhijiexiangfadianzhanjinxinggoudian,qizhongdehuanjiejiuhuiyousuobianhua。

dianlishigefeichangfuzadexitong,wufayigaierlun,womenjulidemoshizhishibianyudajialijiehoumiandeneirong。

xuyixing(ethan xu)jiugaosuwomen,zaimuqiandianlishichangdeyunzuomoshixia,putongyonghujiaodedianfeibingbushizhijiegenfudianjiayouxiangguanxing。youdediqukenengshouyi,youdedifangkenengnihaiyaodaotieqian。

fudianjiadehua,jibenshangshizhicunzaiyudianlipifashichangshangde。putongdeyongdianyonghu,tazhuyaoshizailingshoushichangshang,gendangdidedianligongsiqumaidian,suoyiputongyonghuqishihenshaoshoudaofudianjiadeyingxiang,erdianligongsi,takenenghuigenjuzhengniandegoudiandepingjundechengben,xiangjuminshouqudianfei,taxiangdangyu,bangputongdeyonghu,pinghualedianjiadebodong,suoyiputongyonghushijishangshijiechubudaofudianjiade。

zaizheizhongmoshixia,suiranjuminmeijiechudaofudianjia,yenengxiangshoudaogengdideyongdianchengben。danyouxiediqudemoshifanerhuijijumindailaiewaifudan。birubufenouzhoudiqu。

zaiouzhouneibian,queshishiyoushangwangdianjiazheiyangdedongxi,shizhengfuzhidingleyonglaibaozheng,qingjienengyuandefadianzhe,nenggouyouyigedoudidedianjia,suoyidangdianlishichangzhongtadepifadianjiadiyushangwangdianjiadeshihou,zhengfuhuijinxingbutie,yejiushishuodangchuxianfudianjiadeshihou,zhengfuyehuijinxingbutie,shenzhibutiedebizhengdianjiahaiyaogengduo,erzheixiequeshishihuizhuanjiadaoxiaofeizheshenshangde。

yinweiyaoguliqingjienengyuanfazhan,yaoduitajinxingbutiedehua,neizhengfujiuxuyao,zhaodaozheigeqianqubutieqingjienengyuandefadianzhe,erzheigechajia,zhengfujiubazheigechengbenjiuzhuanjiadaolexiaofeizhedetoushang。

deguojiuyoubaogaozhichu,dangdianwangmaijiqiyedepifajiage,diyufujifadianzhandeshangwangdianjiashi,qizhongdechaejiuhuizaijiazailingshoushichangdeshoujiazhong,laimibudianwangdeyunyingchengben,jihusuoyoulingshoushichangxiaofeizhe,douxuyaozaizhifudianfeishijiaonazheixiangshuikuan。

pifashichangdianjiagenggao,lingshoushichangdefujiafeijiuhuiyuedi,fanzhi,dangpifajiajiangdaolingyixia,chengweifujiagedeshihou,lingshoushichangyonghuchengdandeshuikuanjiuhuizengjia。

erdaolejiazhoudiquyoubuyiyangle,youyuzhengcezhichi,jiazhoujuminkaishidaliangshiyongxiaoxingguangfufadianshebei,yejiushiwudingdetaiyangnengban,danzhei,fanerkenengranggonggongdianwangdeyongdianchengbenbiandegenggao。

yinweidanggengduojiatingshiyongwudingtaiyangneng,tamenconggonggongdianwangzhonggoumaidianlijiangjianshao,dianwangfadianyuweihushiyougudingchengbende,ruguodianwangyonghujianshao,neimeigerenfentandegudingchengbenjiangbiandegenggao,ranhoudaozhigengduodeyonghulikaigonggongdianwangzhuaneryongbaoguangfufadian,bingjinyibutigaogonggongdianwangdejiage,zheizhongqingkuangbeichengwei“utility death spiral”,gongyongshiyesiwangluoxuan。

suiranxinnengyuanfadianliang,tebieshitaiyangnengzaijinnianlaichuxianbiaosheng,yedailaileyishangwomenshuodezhongzhongwenti,tongshiyehuiyinfahuanbaorenshiduitaiyangnengfadianbandewuranhenenghaodanyou,dansuizhetanzhonghechengweiquanqiugeguohegedagongsidemubiao,qingjienengyuandezengzhangjiaobuyiranbuhuitingzhi。

guojinengyuanshuyuce,dao2025nianshi,kezaishengnengyuanjiangchaoyuemeitanfadian,chengweiquanqiudianlidezhuyaolaiyuan。

meiguoyinxingmeiguonengyuanbaogaoyexianshi,yujidao2030nian,fengnenghetaiyangnengfenbiejiangzengjia100gwhe240gwdefadianrongliang。

tongshiyoufenxiyuji,youyumeiguozhengfujihuadao2050nianshixiannet-zero“jinglingpaifang”,jianghuidaidongbeimeidetaiyangnengchanyeshichangguimocong250yimeiyuanzengzhangdao1207yimeiyuan。

neimejiexialaiwomenzailaihuidayigewenti:zhengruwomenzhiqian《aidianlizhengduozhan》neiqilitidaodedanyou,suizheaikejidebaofa,meiguojiangyinglaixinyilundianlixuqiudezengzhang,neimedalifazhanqingjienengyuan,shifounengchengweijiejuefanganni?

03 电能失衡与未来电力缺口

zaihuidazheigewentizhiqian,womendexianlejie,weihemeiguoyibianchuxianqingjienengyuanguosheng,lingyibianquepinfanbaochudianlibuzudexinwen。

youxiedifanghuiyouhenduodeqingjienengyuan,danshitaxuyaozugouduodedianlichuanshuxian,baqingjienengyuanconggongdianhetaiyangnengziyuanbijiaofengfudedifang,chuanshudaoyongdianzhongxin。

danshimeiguodedianlixitongyouzheimeyigewenti,tabushiyigelianjiedehenhaodedianlixitong,jiumeiguoxibu、meiguodongbuhedekesasizhou,tashisangexiangduidulidedianlixitong。

tongshizaimeiyigedulidianlixitongdangzhong,gegediqudedianlixitong,tayoushiyouyidiangeziweizhengdezhuangtai,suirantamenzhijianshiyouyixiedianlichuanshude,danzheigedianlichuanshudenenglibingbugouda,suoyizheixiedianlibingbunenggouyouxiaodi,youxiaodichuanshudaotazhenzhengxuyaobeixuyaodedifang。

qishizheigewentidejiejuesiluhenjiandan,neijiushiduojiansheqingjienengyuansheshihedianlichuanshuxian,meiguozhengfuyedequezaituijinxiangguanzhengce,danzaizhixingqilaiqueyudaolezhongzhongkunnan。

qizhongshejidaohenduoyuanyin,birushuozhengzhi、zhengce、minyidengdeng,jiubirushuoyongminyilaijuli,qishimeiguorentaxiwangnijianshegengduodedianlichuanshuxian,danshitayoubuxiwangnizaitajiamenkoujianlidianlichuanshuxian。zheijiushipubiandeyigexiangfa,zheigexiangfazaimeiguoyouyigecijiaonimby,jiu not in my backyard(biejianzaiwojiafujin),jiushinikeyizuoduigonggonghaodeshiqing,danshibuyaozaiwojiamenkouzuo。

youyigelizijiushidagaiyiliangnianqian,zaimeiguodedongbeibudiqu,dangshishixiangjianyitiao 145 yinglizhangdedianlichuanshuxian,ranhouzheigexiangmubeiyinweifalvdeyuanyin,beizhengzhengtuoleliangniandeshijian。dangdideyixiehuanbaozhuyizhe,heqitadeyixiezuzhitichulaiyaofanduijianshezheigedianlichuanshuxiande,jiutamendeliyoujiushi,jianshedianlichuanshuxiankenenghuixuyaokanshu,kenenghuiyingxiangdaodangdideshengtaidengdeng。

genjuxuyixing(ethan xu)duiwomenfenxiangdeshuju,meiguodedianlichuanshuxiandejianshedagaimeinianyidiyu1%desuduzaijianshe,erweiruannengyuanzhanlvebudeyanjiufaxian,ruguomeiguozhendeyaoshixiandaguimodeqingjiedianli,zhishaoxuyaomeinianyidayue2.5%zuoyoudesudu,quzengzhanghekuojiantazijidechuanshuxianhewangluo,danxianzaidesudu,shiyuanyuangenbushangxuyaodesudude。

chuledianlifazhanbujunheng,suizhekejifazhan,weilaibushaoxingyejiangchuxianjudadedianlixuqiuquekou。meiguoyinxingfabiaodemeiguonengyuanbaogaozhong,jiangmeiguoyongdianzengzhangzhuyaoguinaweisangeyuanyin:

diyigeyuanyinlaiziyuaifazhan。

womenzhiqiandeshipinjiangguo,zheiliangnianyinweishengchengshiaidebaofa,juanqileyigurechao,bushaokejijutoufenfenchijuzijiansheaishujuzhongxin,dailailepangdadeyongdianxuqiu。

徐熠兴(Ethan Xu)

微软能源战略部 资深项目经理

shujuzhongxinzheigexingyedagaihuiyimeinian15%zuoyoudesudujinxingzengzhang,xiangjintiandehua,shujuzhongxinzhizhandaolemeiguozhenggeyongdianliangde2.5%zuoyou,ranhouyujidao2030nianzuoyou,shujuzhongxinzhanmeiguozhenggeyongdianliangdebizhong,huizhandao7.5%zuoyou,suoyizheishiyigebijiaodadefeiyue。

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04 清洁能源如何撑起下一轮用电浪潮

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