文  中国人民银行货币政策分析小组

jinnianyilai，yinxinglicaidenggezhongziguanchanpinguimozengzhangjiaokuai，youqishizhaishihuorebeijingxia，yixietouxiangzhaiquanshichangdeziguanchanpinshoudaotouzizhedezhuipeng。zaijingzhihuaguanlijizhixia，ziguanchanpinjingzhibodongduitouzizhexingweiyedailaileyingxiang。

jingzhihuayouzhuyumingqueziguanchanpinfengxianheshouyiguishu，cujinshichangjiankangfazhan。genjuhetong，ziguanchanpindefengxianyushouyibenyingguishuyutouzizhe。ziguanxinguiqian，xuduoziguanchanpinyou“yuqishouyilv”，qieyudaoqishijishouyilvtongchangyizhi，qizhongjiuyinhanzhegangxingduifu。weileshixianwendingdeyuqishouyilv，ziguanchanpinguanlirenwangwanghuicaiqujijintouzicelvechengshougengdafengxian，huoyongshouyijiaohaochanpinde“feng”qubukuisunchanpinde“qian”，touzizheduiqizhongdejuticaozuobingbuzhiqing，yebuguanxin，guanlirenshijishangchengdanlesuoyoudeshengyufengxian，danyoubujiruguanlirenzishendezichanfuzhaibiao，jileilexitongxingdejinrongfengxian。

2018nian4yueziguanxinguichutai，mingqueyaoqiujinrongjigouduiziguanchanpinshixingjingzhihuaguanli。jingzhihuajizhixia，chanpinguanlirengenjushijitouziyunzuoqingkuang，dingqihuobudingqipiludanweifenejingzhi，chanpinshouyilvbiandongxinxigengjiatouming。tongshi，touzizheanzhaojingzhishengou、shuhuichanpin，zuizhongtouzishouyiyoushengouriheshuhuiridechanpinjingzhiqueding，chanpinguanlirenyuchanpindetouzifengxianfenli，fengxianyoutouzizhezidan，shouyihefengxiangengjiaduideng，zhenzhengtixian“maizhejinze、maizhezifu”deziguanbenzhi。2019-2023nian，woguojingzhixingyinxinglicaichanpincunxuyuedayueyou10wanyiyuanzengjiazhi26wanyiyuan，zhanbiyou43%shangshengzhi97%，jingzhihuaguanlichengweidashisuoqu。

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zaijingzhihuaguanlichuqi，touzizheduichanpinjingzhibianhuadeguanzhuduheminganxingshangsheng，rongyichuxianduanqifeilixingjiaoyiheshichang“yangqunxiaoying”。2022nianziguanxinguiguoduqijieshuhouzhengshishishi，touzizheshangweiwanquanshiyingjingzhihuajizhi，duilicaichanpinchuxiankuisunfengxianhaimeiyouchongfensixiangzhunbei。dangshi，bushaoyinxinglicaizijintouxiangzhaishi，suizheshichanglilvshangxing，zhaiquanjiagexiadie，bufenchanpinjingzhihuichenaizhi“pojing”，shichangchanshengkonghuangqingxu，daguimoshuhuichaobansuichuxian，dicengjinrongzichanjiageyuziguanchanpinjingzhibodongyouxingchenggongzhen，shichangluoxuanxiaxingxunhuanjinyibufangda。2022nianshuhuichaoyilai，shichangduiziguanchanpinjingzhibodongderongrenduyousuoxiajiang，bufenziguanchanpincaiqucelvepinghuajingzhi，dicengzichangengjiafuza，shidejinliangnianlaiziguanchanpinjingzhidebodongbiaomianshangchuxianxiajiang。dandangqianshichanghedicengzichanrengfuzaduobian，shichangdeluoxuanxunhuanxiaoyingyeyirancunzai，duiziguanchanpinjingzhidebodonghaixuyaoshenshenguancha。

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zuihoushiruhebijiaoxuanzebutongdechanpin。touzizheyingjiehezishenfengxianchengshounenglixuanzetouzichanpin。birushuo，cunkuanshouyikansidiyudangqianpingjundelicaishouyilv，dantashicunkuanrenquedingkeyihuodedeshouyilv；ziguanchanpindeshouyilvshibuduanbiandongde，touzifengxiandayucunkuan，qixiangduijiaogaodeshouyilvshitongguochengdanjiagebodongfengxianhuanlaide。

zongdelaikan，suizheziguanxingyejinyibuxiangjingzhihuafangxiangzhuanxing，touzizhejiangzhubuchengdangengduojingzhibodongfengxian。jinrongjigouxiaoshouziguanchanpinshiyoubiyaozuohaotouzizhefuwu，tigongxiangguanzixun，chongfenxiangtouzizhetishifengxian，yindaotouzizhelixingkandaijingzhibodong，cujinshichangpingwenjiankangyunxing。

（本文节选自中国人民银行2024年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告）