文  中国人民银行货币政策分析小组

dangdeershidatichu，yaojiakuaijianliduozhutigongji、duoqudaobaozhang、zugoubingjudezhufangzhidu。peiyuhefazhanzhufangzulinshichang，jishigoujianfangdichanxinfazhanmoshidezhongyaoyihuan，yeyouzhuyucujinfangdichanshichangdepingwenjiankangfazhan。

renminyinxingbuduanjianquanzhufangzulinjinrongzhichitixi，lianheguojiajinrongjianduguanlizongjufabu《guanyujinrongzhichizhufangzulinshichangfazhandeyijian》。5yue17ri，lianhegebumentuichufangdichanzhichizhengcezuhe，bingzaiqianqishidianjichushangshelibaozhangxingzhufangzaidaikuan，yongshichanghuafangshizhichitongchouxiaohuacunliangfangchanheyouhuazengliangzhufang。

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zhufangzulinchanyeshiweilaifangdichanshichangfazhandezhongyaofangxiang。zaifangdichanshichanggongqiuguanxishenkezhuanbiandexinxingshixia，woguocunliangzhufangguimoyiranhenda，zhufangzulinchanyeshiweilaifangdichanxinfazhanmoshidezhongyaofangxiang。congxuqiuduankan，jinnianlaibujinshidishouruqunti，xinshiminhuoshigangbiyecanjiagongzuodeqingnianren，dui“haofangzi”dezulinxuqiuyezaishangsheng。youshichangjigoucesuan，weilaiwoguoyouzufangxuqiuderenkouchao2yiren，shichangqianlijiaoda。conggongjiduankan，guoquwoguotigongzulinzhufangdezhuyaoshigeren，jinnianlaisuizhezushoubidehuishengherongziyunyingchengbendexiajiang，zhufangzulinchanyedeshangyekechixuxingzaizengqiang，yuelaiyueduodezhufangzulinqiyejinrushichang，guimohua、jiyuehuajingying，jiangyouzhuyutigonggengyouzhi、wendingdezulinzhufangfuwu。

panhuocunliangqukucunzhuliqidongzhufangzulinye。dangqianwoguozhufangzulinchanyerengchuyuqibujieduan，fangdichanshichangyechuzaidiaozhengdeteshushiqi，xuyaofahuijinrongheqitazhengceheli，tongguopanhuocunliangqukucunpeiyuzhufangzulinchanye。jinqirenminyinxingzaiyuanzulinzhufangdaikuanzhichijihuadejichushang，wanshantuichulebaozhangxingzhufangzaidaikuan。tongguoshichanghuadefangshi，zhulishixiansandagongneng∶

yishituidonggoujianfangdichanxinfazhanmoshi，zhichizhufangzulinchanyefazhan。qiyepiliangshougoucunliangzhufang，xingchengtuantigoumaili，shougoujiagezhekouhuijinyibutishengzhufangzulinchanyetouzihuibaoheqiyecanyuyiyuan。

ershizengjiabaozhangxingzhufanggongji。shougouhoudeshangpinfangkeyongzuobaozhangxingzhufangpeishouhuozulin，zaijiakuaipanhuocunliangheshichangqukucundetongshi，manzubaozhangxingzhufangxuqiu。

sanshiyubaojiaofanghe“baimingdan”jizhixingchengheli，jiangdifangdichanshichangfengxianshuiping。fangqiziyuancanyu，huilongdezijinxuyongyubaojiaolouxiangmuheqitazaijianxiangmu，jiangtuidonggengduoxiangmumanzu“baimingdan”tiaojian，gaishanfangqizijinzhuangkuang。jiezhi6yuemo，jinrongjigouyifafang247yiyuanzulinzhufangdaikuan，baozhangxingzaidaikuanyuewei121yiyuan，houxudaikuantoufangyouwangjinyibujiakuai。tongshi，gedifangzhengfuhaizaicaishui、tudi、peitaosheshidengfangmiantigonglezhichizhengce，zheixiedounengqidaojiangdiqiyechengben、zengqiangzhufangzulinchanyeshangyekechixuxingdezuoyong。

weilaisuizhefangdichanshichangdingjiaquyulixing，zulinxuqiujinyibushifang，zushoubichixugaishanhuisheng，zhufangzulinqiyeyunyingnenglibuduantisheng，zhufangzulinshichangshixianshangyehuakechixufazhanshiyoujichude。xiajieduan，yaojixufahuihaozhichizhengceduizhufangzulinchanyedetuidongzuoyong，wanshanzhufangzulinjinrongzhichitixi，tongshi，chongfendiaodongshichanghuajigoudejijixing，tongguogengduoshehuizijindetouru，jianlikechixufazhandeshangyemoshi，zhichicunliangshangpinfangqukucun，zhulituidongfangdichanxingyezhuanxingfazhan。

（本文节选自中国人民银行2024年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告）