wen | donews caoshuangtao

编辑 | 杨博丞

tongguoaitishengyouxitiyan，zhengchengweiyouxiyingjianchangshangjiaozhudezhongdian。

zaidi21jiechinajoyshang，zhongduoyouxiyingjianchangshangfenfenfabuheaijiehedexiangguanchanpin。rugaotonglianhe24gongzuoshiyuwangyifuxishiyanshidazaolezhongduance《yongjiewujianshouyou》deaiyuyindadouwanfa，weiwanjiatigongyuzhenrenjihuwuyi、quannengduomotai、keshishiyuyinjiaoliudeaiduiyou。

tclhuaxingtongguoaifalidedianjingxianshipingjuyougaoduibi、gaoqulv、gaoshuaxin、kuaixiangying“sangaoyikuai”detedian。yitclhuaxinghelianxianglianhefabudianjingxianshiqir25f-30weili，gaixianshiqidazaitclhuaxinghvamianban，shuaxinlvzuigaokeda280hz，yongyou1ms gtgdexiangyingshijian（0.5ms mprt），bingtongguoeyesafe 2.0renzhengyuanshengdilanguangjishu。

zaidianzijingjiriyipuji、4kfenbianlv、hdrdengxianshijishudejinbuyijinvidia g-syncheamd freesyncdengkebianshuaxinlvjishudengduoyinsudegongtongtuidongxia。cognitive market researchyuce，2024nianquanqiuyouxixianshiqishichangjiangdadao99.512yimeiyuan。

deyiyuchanpinchixuchuangxin、shichanghechannengbuju，rutclhuaxingshougouweiyusuzhoudehanguosanxingxianshigaoshidaimianbanchang，shiyeneiweiyinengliangchan4kfenbianlv、240hzshuaxinlv、1mschaodixiangyingshijian、quanqiuzuibo0.38ddeboli、800rchaogaoqulvpingmudegongchang，gongyishuipingquanqiutop1。jinnian7yuefentclzaihuidatouzizhetiwenshitidao，tclhuaxingdianjingxianshiqishichangfeneyizuodaoquanqiutop1。

danweilaidianjingxianshipingnengjitclhuaxingdailaiduodazengfu，rengyoudaishangque。yifangmian，dazaigaoshuaxinlv、dixiangyingshijianhegaofenbianlvdenggenggaopeizhidedianjingxianshipingpcchanpinjiagexiangduijiaogao。suizhequanqiuxiaofeishichangyufachengxiankxingfenhua，wuxingzhongquantuibushaodianjingxiaofeizhe。

zaijingdongpingtaishang，jixiegemingjiguangxiliejiagezai8000yuanyishang，lianxiangzhengjiuzhexiliejiagelaidaogengshijiejinwanyuan。dancongyouxiandepinglunlaikan，cemianshuomingzhongduandongxiaobujia。ciwai，youxixianshiqijishudekuaisufazhandailaipinfandeshengjihechanpindiedai，jinyibulagaoshiyongchengben。

lingyifangmian，quanqiuyouxiyouxixianshiqishichangjingzhengjilie，jingdongfang、sanxingdengzhongduomianbanchangshangbuduantongguojishuchuangxinhezengzhigongnenglaizhengqiangshichangfene。ruhechixubaochichuangxinyoushi，chengweitclhuaxingdedakao。

bujinjinshiyouxixianshipinglingyu，suizhequanqiumianbanjishudechixuchuangxin，ruhezaizhinengshouji、chezaixianshipinglingyukuodashichangfene，yijiruheyingduiweilaikenengchuxiandedianshimianbanjiagexiaxingyali，junchengweitclhuaxingsuoxuyingduidewenti。

一、上下游挤兑，电视面板价格下行压力增加

weiyingduimianbanxingyezhouqixing，jianchan、kongchan、anxushengchanchengweilcdmianbanchangshangdiaokonggongxudehexincelve，rujingdongfang、tclhuaxingjunzhichuanxushengchan。suishuojianchan、kongchan、anxushengchanmingcibutong，danbenzhishangjunshitongguojianshaogongjilaidadaogongxupinghenghuogongbuyingqiudedibu，jinerlagaomianbanjiage。

2022niandimianbanchangshangshouciqidongshishangzuidaguimojianchan，lijingxingyezhentonghou，2024nianshangbannianlcdmianbanjiageyinglaishangzhang。diejiaquanqiutiyusaishirangzhengjichangtiqubeihuoyijidachicundianshichixutuijin，dianshimianbanchuhuomianjiyousuozengjia。danyinzhengjichangbeihuoxiangduijinshen，mianbanchuhuoliangchixuxiadie。

discienshujuxianshi，2024nianshangbannianquanqiulcddianshimianbanjiaotongqijianshao2%yueda1.19yipian，chuhuomianjijiaotongqizengjia5%zhi8650wanpingfangmi。tclhuaxingjiaotongqizengzhang2%zhi2430wanpian，chaodachicun115cundechuhuolianggaoyuyuqishangbannianyuejin3000pian，chaoguonianchumubiao。jingdongfanghetclquanqiushichangfenefenbiewei24%he20%，erzhechayizhengzaisuoxiao。

kaolvdaomuqiantclhuaxing8.5daichangyizhejiuwanbi，wendingchuhuoyouzhuyuyejizhicheng。tcifabudeshangbannianyejiyugaocheng，xianshiyewuyujishixianjinglirun 25.8yiyuan-28.8yiyuan，tongbigaishanchao 60 yiyuan。danmianbanchangshangzhengzaoyushangxiayougongtongjidui，tclhuaxingnengfoujixubaochilirunzengzhangrengyoudaishangque。

zaishangyouduan，kangning、aijiexu、dianqixiaozidengbolizhizaoshangweiduichongriyuanbianzhi，fenfenkaiqitijia。yiquanqiuzuidadebolizhizaoshangkangningweili，kangningceoweiwende5yuefenbiaoshi，yuji2024niandizhiqianriyuanhexinhuilvweichizai107，xianjieduanriyuanjiqihuilvmingxiandiyu107。danyinkehuyiriyuangoumaiboli，yimeiyuanshouchumaichumianban。lilvchaxia，gongsijihuatongguojiagediaozhengzuhejinxingbixian，yibaozhengyingli。

tongchanglaishuo，bolizhandaomianbanchengbende10%-15%，shangyoubolichangshangtijiaduitclhuaxingdailaideyingxianghuodiyuyicaijingweidaibiaodezhongxiaochicunmianbanchicun，danzheiduitcllirunhuojianggouchengyingxiang。

zaixiayouduan，zaizhinengshouji、pc、pingbandiannaodengduochongjixia，jishiyoutiyusaishichengweidongli，dantvchuhuoliangbingweiyinglaitisheng。aoweiyunwangjianceshujuxianshi，618qiansanzhou（5yue20rizhi6yue9ri），tvxiaoshoulianghexiaoshouefenbiewei83.3wantaihe30.6yiyuan，jiaotongqifenbiejianshao37%he27.3%。

xiabannianguoneisuiyoushuang11、shuang12，haiwaiyouheisexingqiwu、shengdanjiedengchuantongbeihuowangji，danshangbannianzhengjichangxuqiubeitouzhi、xiaoshoubingweidadaoyuqi，gaokucunxiazhengjichangbeihuorengxiangduijinshen。6yueduochicunlcdmianbanjiageyihe5yuefenchiping，7yueomdia tvmianbanbaojiayikaishixiadie1meiyuan。ciwai，shangbannianhonghaiweijidaozhihaiyunshichengbeiyanzhang，weixiabanniantvmianbanxuqiuzengjiazengtiangengduozuli。

zaizhongduanxiaoshouqudao，jingdonghetianmaoweiraodijiachixujingzheng，dandijiabukenengyoudianshangpingtaiyizhimaidan，houxuzhengjichanghedianshangpingtaidelirunboyijiangzhujianchengweichangtaihua。xiayoujingxiaoshangweicongdianshangpingtaizhengduokehu，wanchengzhengjichangshedingdekaohemubiao，zhinengyidiyudianshangpingtaijiacuchengjiaoyi。

zaimianbanchangshangduan，dianshimianbanzuoweizhongduomianbanchangshangyinglidezhongyaoyewu，weifangzhiweilaijiagechuxiandadie，jianchanwuyishikuaisudafa。danquanqiudianshimianbangongyingshangjianchandongzuozhengchuxianfenqi，lcddianshimianbanjiagechengxianluanxiang。

xiangguanyeneirenshizhichu，5yuequanqiupingjundemianbanjiadonglvyuezai86%zuoyou。7yuefen，jingdongfang、tclhuaxingjiadonglvhuojiangxiadiao8cheng。taiqiyinchannengshouxian，chanchuyouxian，zhengtiyingxiangyouxian。

q3sanxinghelejinhuiyoubufendingdanyizhuanzhitaichang，youda、qunchuangmuqianhaimeiyoujianchanjihua。q4zhengjichangcaigouxuqiuwumingxianhuinuan，mianbanchangshangrengnantaojianchanjihua。youqizhengjichangcaigouxuqiuyicongbeihuoanquanxiangjiangchengben、baolirunzhuanbianxia，mianbanchangshanghezhengjichangdejiageboyigenghuizengqiang。

channengyalixia，mianbanchangshangfenfenjuandachicuntv，100cuntvyibugouda，jumutvshidaizhengzailailin。rutclhehaixinjianchichaodachicun+mini ledbeiguangchanpinluxianduonian。

jiyuguankanshijuexiaoguo，guoneiershoufangjiagexiaxingdengyinsu，dachicundianshixuqiuzhengyinglaizengjia。qunzhizixunshujuxianshi，guoqu3nianlai，guonei75cunyishangchaodachicundianshichuhuoguimobeishuchengzhang。2024nianquanqiuchaodachicundianshijiaotongqizengzhang38.9%zhi768wantai，guoneishichangyujizhanquanqiuzongchuhuoliangde40%yishang。

danmuqiandachicuntvzaizhongduanqudaofangliangyemianlinbushaozuli，yifangmian，dachicuntvzaoyuhedianjingpcleisiwenti。jiagexiangduiguogaohexiaofeizhezhuiqiuxingjiabichanshengmaodun，zhengjichangweiduichongzheizhongmaodunzhengjiangjiagechixuxiafang。ru618qijian，xiaomiredmi max100xing、viddajumudianshifenbiejiangjiagexiafangdao8999yuanhe7999yuan。

bukefourendeshi，jiagexiafangduizhongduanxuqiuzaidaidongzhengjichangchuhuoliangzengjiadetongshi，yenengjiasumianbanmianjichengzhang，bangzhumianbanchangxiaohuachanneng，huanjiegongxuyali，danyeyiweizheshuangfangdejiageboyijixuzengqiang。

lingyifangmian，dachicundianshigangadianzaiyuyingjiandafudushengji，neirongshengtaibingweigensuishengji。youqishiciqiandianshihuiyuandetaowashishoufei，gengshiquantuibushaoxiaofeizhe。haiwaishichangdachicundianshimuqianrengyousanxingsuozhudao，zheiyiweizheguoneichangshangxutourugengduoziyuancainengdaidongchuhuoliangzengjia。

二、智能手机、车载显示屏，竞争压力凸显

jinnian7yuetclzaihuidatouzizhetidao，tclhuaxingxianshipinglingyubidianhechezaichanpinanjihuawanchengpinpaikehudaorubingzhubufangliang。duiyutclhuaxingqieruchezaixianshipinglingyu，yebunenglijie。

xinnengyuanqichechaozhezhinenghua、“xiaofeidianzihua”fangxiangfazhan，zhengchengweibukenidequshi。danxiangjiaoyul3jigenggaojibiezidongjiashimianlinzhongduozuli，duanqineinanyiluodi。zhinengzuocangyinjishumenjianxiangduijiaodi，luodishijiangengkuai，zhengchengweichangshangdazaochayihuajingzhengdeguanjian。

mianbanchangshangweidaidongchuhuoliangzengjia，yishihecheqilianhetuichuduopingmuhuoyitihuapingmu，chezaixianshipingzhengchaozhedapingmufangxiangfazhan。ces 2024shang，jingdongfangquanqiushoufa44.6cunchaodachicunyanghuawuzhinengzuocang，tclhuaxingzhanshi42.7cunchaodachicunchezaipingmu，caiyongltps lcdjishuyijimini ledbeiguangfenqu。gongyanyuanyuqi，weilaicheneixianshimianbandemianjikewangchengxianbeishuchengzhang，bingyuguchezaimianbanchanzhijiangzai2026nianchengzhangzhibaiyimeiyuanguimo，zengzhanglvdadao8.1%。

ershimianbanchangshanghezhujichangcaiyongtier 1.5moshi，jitiaoguotier 1dedianzizhengheshangzhijieyuzhujichanghezuo，qunchuangyujingdongfangjuncaiyonggaimoshi。

danruoxiangjiezhuchezaixianshipingdaidongchuhuolianggenggaozengzhang，tclhuaxingyemianlinbushaozuli。

qiyi，zonghekaolvdaochezhujiashixiguan、quanqiuduicheliangzhongliang、chicunyaoyangeyaoqiu，mianbanchangshangsuinengjuandachicundanyouxianzhi。ruoxiangdazaochayihua，bujinyaochixuzhenghear hud、luoyan3d、shoushishibie、toumingxianshidenggongneng，qiexujinyibuqianghuayuxianshijishuyingyongdetansuohelianjie。

qier，zhujichangrenqingshigufuza，xiangyaojinruzhujichangdegongyingshangmingdan，huoyijiageyoushi，huochengdangenggaoxiaoshouchengbenweihukeqing，zheihuojiangyingxiangtclhuaxinglirunzengzhang。huoshiyidadaoningdeshidailongtoudiwei，jinerbangzhuzhujichangzengjiapinpaixinrenbeishu。

huajingqingbaowangshujuxianshi，2023niandaluqiyeshentianma、jingdongfangchuhuoliangfenbieweiliediyi，disi，chuhuoliangfenbiewei13.6yipian、10.9yipian，shizhanlvfenbiedadao15.6%、12.5%。huanyanzhi，tclhuaxingzaichezaixianshilingyurengchuzaiqianqidaoliang、tishengpinpaizhimingdujieduan，hezhujichanghuayuquanyouxian。

qisan，duibiaodonglidianchilaikan，zhujichangjiyugongyingliananquankaolv，wangwanghuikaolvduojiagongyingshang。dandazaizhujichangchexingjiaofuliangdebuqueding，yijiwufachengweizhujichangzhugongxia，junduigongyingshangchuhuoliangdaidongzhengtiyouxian。

runazhaqichepeitaodianchiweiyiweilineng（zhugong）、ningdeshidai、guoxuangaoke、fengchaonengyuanhezhenglixinnengdeng，2024nianq1nazhayinxiaoliangbujiyuqi，chanliangguihuajinyou1wanliang，duidonglidianchichangshangchuhuoliangladongjinyou0.6gwh，anhetongbilifenliudaojutichangshanghuojianggengdi。

bujinjinshizaichezaixianshipinglingyu，zhinengshoujilingyutongyangruci。yitcldugongdeyijiapingbanproweili，qizaijingdongpingtaishangjin30ri（6yue27rizhi7yue27ri）xiaoliangjinyou1000jian。shangshizhijinleijipinglunyuezai1wan+，heqitachangshangchajumingxian，zheiduitclhuaxingmianbanchuhuoliangdaidongyouxian。

danruoxiangchengweichangshangremenjixingdedugong，tclhuaxingjiyaomianlingengcankudejingzheng，yeyaomianduigengqiangdejishuchuangxin。rusdczhangqizaiamoledxianshiqilingyuzhudaoxianjinjishuyanfajiliangchan，muqianweiapple iphone 15jichubanhepro mquanxiliejixinggongyingmianban，lgdgongyingprohepro max 2kuangaoduanjixingmianban，jingdongfangzuichuyinjishuwentiweinengtongguopingguopinzhiceshi。

tongyangdeyeyouhuawei，zhenduihuaweisanzhediepingjixing，tclhuaxing、jingdongfangheweixinnuodengmianbangongyingshangfenfenjijikaifaheyouhuasanzhediepingjishu，xiwangchengweihuaweisanzhediepingdedugong。jingdongfangjishuzhongdianweigaishanzhediepingdeneiwaizhexingnenghejiangdishengchanchengben；tclhuaxingjishuzhongdianfangdaotishengzhediepingdekekaoxingheliangpinlv，yijiejuesanzhediepingdehouzhong、zhehenhejiaolianwenti；weixinnuodeyanfafangxiangbaokuotishengpingmudenaiyongxingheyouhuazhediejiegou。huanyanzhi，dangmianbanchangshangjishulujingxiangtongshi，ruhejinkuaipaochuchayihuaheliangpinlv，chengweitclhuaxingnaxiahuaweidedakao。

三、溢价收购，博弈增强

jiyumianbanxingyedezhongzijinshuxing，shougoushimianbanchangshangkuodashichangfenedezhongyaotuidongli。rujingdongfangzaozai2003nianshougouskhailishiqixialcdbumenhydis，bingyiciweijichubuduantuidongbinggou。zaioledyewufangmian，jinnianjingdongfangyezaxiajuetouzi，jinzhuizhesdc、lgddenghanqi。2020niantclhuaxingshougousdcdeguoneisuzhougongchanghou，bujinchenggongkuodalcdchanneng，yeyizhizaizhuiganjingdongfang。

muqianyinfayeneiguanzhudeshougouwei，lgdzaiguoneiguangzhoude8.5dailcdgongchang。ju7yuefenhanmeiet newsbaogao，lgdguangzhouchangshougouhouxuanqiyedeshididiaochayijieshu，muqianlgdzhengzaixieshangjiage、zhuanli、gongchangyingyundengjutishougoutiaojian，lgdguangzhouchangchushou、xuandinggongzuoyijinruzuihoujieduan。

qizhong，jingdongfanghelgdsixiaxieshangjiagewei1.5wanyihanyuan（yuehe79.5yiyuan），xiwangshunlinaxialgdguangzhougongchanghou，quanqiulcdmianbanshichangfenezengzhangzhi30%。tclhuaxingjiyuzujijingdongfang，jiangquanqiulcdchuhuomianbanshizhanlvkuodadao20%，yijiduilgddeipsjishunonghouxingqudengjiaodukaolv，zhijiekaichu2wanyihanyuan（yuehe106yiyuan）detianjia。shuangfangjiageboyixia，lgdbudebuzanhuanchushoubufa。

danzheibishougounengfoushunliwancheng，yemianlinbushaozuli。yifangmian，tclhuaxinggudongzhongbujinyousanxing，qiexianzairengxiangsanxinggongyingbufenlcdmianban。jiyulcdhesanxingdejingzhengguanxi，yechengweilgddedanyousuozai。

lingyifangmian，jinnianshangbanniantclhuaxingsuishixianyingli，dantclzhonghuanyinguoneiguangfubujingqikuisunyanzhong。tclzaishangbannianyejiyugaocheng，yinxinnengyuanguangfuchanyeliangehuanjiechannengjiasushifang，yinfagongxujiao2023nianxiabannianjinyibushiheng，zhuyaochanpinjiagexiadie，xingyejingyingchengya。tclzhonghuanyujishangbannianshixianguishuyuqigudongdejinglirunwei-29yiyuanzhi-32yiyuan。

zarubaiyishougouxia，wuyirangtcljituanmianlingengdadexianjinliuyali。danzuizhongshougoujieguo，kenengrangyoulgdgaiguandinglun。danruoshizuizhongmaijiaquedingweijingdongfang，zheirangjingdongfanghetclhuaxingdechajuhuojiangjixulada。

写在最后：

bukefourendeshi，tclhuaxingdefazhanzhei15niantongguochuangxin、touzi、shougoujiasuguoneilcdmianbanhehaiwaidechaju，bingzaibufenlingyushixianlingpao。ru2024nianq1quanqiuamoledzhinengshoujimianbanchuhuoliangyue1.9yipian，guoneichangshangchuhuofenezhanbi53.4%，feneshoucichaoyuewucheng。tclhuaxingdechuhuoliangtongbizengfuzuida，paimingshengzhiquanqiudisi。danruhetongguogengdachuangxin，gengshenrubuju，buduandikangxingyezhouqixing，suoxiaohejingzhengzhechaju，huoxushixiayige15niantclhuaxingdezhangqiketi。