界面新闻记者 | 张熹珑

8yue15ri，xianggangzhengfutongjichufabu2024niannianzhongrenkoushuzi，shangbannianxianggangrenkoudelinshishuziwei753.18wanren，duibijinniannianchushangsheng0.1%。

gangfufayanrenzhichu，shouhuiyugexiangxiyinrencaiheshurulaogongcuoshi，shangbannianyoubushaorenshicongneidijishijiegediyiruxianggang，shinianzhongrenkoujiao2023nianniandiyousuozengjia。

duibilingyitebiexingzhengqu，wailairenkoutongyangshiaomenrenkouzengzhangdezhuyaodongli。aomentongjijipuchajushujuxianshi，shangbannianmoaomenzongrenkou68.7wan，annianzengjia8200ren，zengfuwei1.2%；zhuyaoshijuaowaidiguyuanzengjiasuozhi，qimowaidiguyuanda18.11wanren，annianzengzhang9.6%。

自然人口负增长

shengyulvchixubuzhen、laolinghuajiaju、renkouyikaojixiezengzhang，shigangaorenkoudegongtongdian。shanghaijiaotongdaxueantaijingjiyuguanlixueyuanjiaoshou，zhihuiyanglaoyuyinfajingjiyanjiuzhongxinzhuren、shouxizhuanjialuoshouguixiangjiemianxinwenfenxizhi，renkoulaolinghuashifadajingjitidepubianxianxiang，muqiankanlaidongyadiquhuigengyanzhongyixie，liruriben、hanguohezhongguoxianggangdeng，zongrenkouzengjiazhuyaokaojixiezengzhang，jiwailairenkoushuru。

shishishang，duibi2023niannianzhong，xianggangchangzhurenkouchuxian0.1%dexiadie。

yifangmianshiziranrenkouxianrufuzengzhang，shangbannianxianggangchushengrenshuyuewei3.44wanren，siwangrenshuyuewei5.24wanren，chuxianyue1.81wanrendeziranjianshao。

“yigediquhuoyigeshehui，yaoxiangbaochirenkouzhengchangdefanyan，zongheshengyulvlilunshangpingjunyaodadao2.1，yejiushimeiduifuqixuyaoshengyulianggexiaohai。”luoshouguitidao，xianggangdezongheshengyulvdayueshi0.7，jinshilixiangzhidesanfenzhiyi，zheiyedaozhilebijiaoyanzhongdelaolinghua。

aomenrenkoutongyangqianqueziranzengzhang，shangbannianxinshengyingerwei1709ren，annianjianshao198ren；siwangrenshuwei1261ren，annianjianshao575ren，renkouziranjingzengzhangjin448ren。zaozaishangshiji90niandi，aomenjiuburulelaolinghuashehui。

xianggangrenkouhuiluodelingyigeyinsuzaiyuliudongjuminchuxianjiaomingxiandeliushi。jiezhishangbannianmo，xianggangliudongjuminwei24.44wanren，jiaoqunianniandi28.15wanren，chuxian13.18%dehuiluo。

xianggangtongjirenkoubaokuo“changzhujumin”he“liudongjumin”，changzhujuminbaokuozaitongjishidianzhiqian/zhihou6geyueneizaigangdouliuzhishao3geyuederenshi，yijizaitongjishidianshenzaixianggangdefeiyongjiujumin。liudongjuminzedingyiweibushichangzhujumindexianggangyongjiuxingjumin。

gangfufayanrenbiaoshi，2023niannianchuquanmianhuifutongguanhou，youbushaoyixiangzaiwaidishenghuodexianggangjuminxiangjiduanzanhuigang，shidangniannianzhongrenkoujiaoqianyinianxianzhushangsheng。zheigexianxiangzai2023nianshaohoudeshijianlikaishizhujianhuifuwangchangdezhuangkuang，daozhi2024niannianzhongrenkoujunjiaoquniannianzhongyousuohuiluo。

外来人口带动人口增长

renkouqianqueziranzengzhang，neidilaigangdezhuancaiheyoucai，chengweixianggangrenkouzengzhangdedonglizhiyi。shujuxianshi，shangbannian，xianggangyou4.4wanmingdanchengzhengchiyourendeyiru。

weilemibulaodongliquekou，xianggangluxutuixinggexiangrencairujingcuoshiyiluxutui，baokuo“gaocaitongjihua”、“shuruneidirencaijihua”、“youxiurencairujingjihua”deng。jiezhijinnian7yuedi，gexiangjihuagongshoudaoyu34wanfenshenqing，dangzhongyu21wanfenyihuopi，youchaoguo14wanrenlaigang。

eraomenshangbannianwaidiguyuanzengliangdadaoyue1.58wanren，erzongrenkouzengliangwei8200ren，huanyanzhi，renkouqianchuhesiwangdequekoujunyouwaidiguyuanlaifugai。

jiemianxinwentongjifaxian，waidiguyuanzaiaomenrenkouzhongdezhanbidadaolishigaowei，bizhong26.36%，jiaomenrenkouzhongyuemei4gerenjiuyouyiweishiwaidiguyuan。

jiezhishangbannianmode18.11wanaomenwaidiguyuanzhong，zhuyaolaiziyazhoudiqu：12.26wanrenlaizizhongguoneidi（zhanbi67.7%），2.98wanrenlaizifeilvbin（zhanbi16.4%），0.2wanrenlaizixianggang（zhanbi1.3%），0.8wanrenlaiziyuenan（zhanbi4.4%）。

chulegeleirencai，xianggangduiyujicenggangweilaodonglidexuqiuyizaizengjia，tongguoshuruwailaojihuaxiyinneidilaodongliqianwangxianggangjuejin。yimingxianggangzhongjiechenshu（huaming）gaosujiemianxinwen，buguanshijiafangyifangxuqiudouhenda：“jinshi6yue、7yue，lianggeyueshijianneicanjiashoulunmianshijiuyou140duoren。yigefuzhuanggongsiyikouqiyaozhao25mingcangwuyuan，lingyigejinronggongsixuyao34mingdianhuakefu。”

chenshutidao，shuruwailaojihuaduiyingpinzhedexueliyaoqiupubianbugao，jiashiyuan、songhuoyuan、cangwuyuan、qingjieyuan、shouhuoyuan、chujichushizheixiegongzhongzhiyaoqiuxiaoxuexueli，jiashangyinianxiangguangongzuojingyan；huijiwenyuan、caigouwenyuanzuidiruzhiyaoqiushichuzhongxueli，“yaoqiuhuijiangyueyu，dongyingwengengjiafen。duinianlingkadeyebushihenyan，youchaoguo50suideyingpinzhenadaolecangwuyuandegangwei。”

neidiyingpinzheshoudaoluqutongzhihou，haiyaodengxiangganglaogongchuxiapiwailaopeie，zaibanlilaigangshouxu。zaichenshushoushang，muqianzaixianggangruzhidejinyou11ren，baokuoxiaobasiji、kefu、hangkongyeshebeicaozuoyuandenggongzhong。tazai7yuechuganggangdijiaole3gewailaogongrendeqianzhengshenqing，baokuo2gecangwuyuanhe1geqicheweixiugong，“xianggangrujingchutidao，xianzaihenduorengaowailao，shenpishouxuyaocong6zhouyanzhangdao8zhou。”

未来人口的增长动力

7yue23ri，gangfutongjichuxiangxiangganglifahuiyanjiurenkouzhengcehecuoshixiaozuweiyuanhuijiaodaixianggangrenkouhelaodongrenkoutuisuan。jutuisuan，dao2046nianshi，xianggangrenkoushuliangyujijiangyoumuqiande750wanzuoyouzengzhi819wan，65suihuoyishangrenkouzhanchaoguosanfenzhiyi，renkoumoxingyijiangbianchenganlaoyalijiaodade“daojinzita”。

zaixianggangweilai20nianderenkouzengjiazhong，zhuyaodonglijiangshizhaolanrencaiheshurulaogong。yixiangguancesuanzhi2046nianderenkouzongliangweili，renkoujingyirujiangwei152wan，baokuo89wanmingdanchengzhengchiyourenji24wanwaijijiatingyonggong，qiyu39wanweiqitarenkoujingqianyi。

xiangganglaogongjifulijufujuzhangheqimingbiaoshi，zhengfuzhengjinxingxinyilunrenliziyuantuisuan，yanjiuhangaichuantongxingye、“badazhongxin”dingweixiangguanxingyederenlixuqiudeng，yujimingnianchugongbujieguo，xianggangxuyaoshuruwailao，yiquebaoxianggangjingjinengyunzhuan，zhengfuhuizaibendichuangzaogenghaozhiyejieti，danzhishiyongyu“shangjindepengyou”。

erzaigulishengyufangmian，xianggangtequzhengfucong2023nianqikaishituichuweiqisanniande2wanyuangulishengyujintie，dancijishengyulvdexiaoguobuzhang。

luoshouguirenwei，gulishengyuzhengceduizhengtiqushidezuoyongyouxian，hanguo、ribenjiushilizi，zhongzhangqilaikan，fadadiquhaishixuyaokaoyimindengfangshi，yijixiezengzhangshixianrenkouzengzhang。

“weilairenkouzhengcefangmian，yaogulichuangzaoyigeshengyuyouhaodeshehui，gengzhongyaodeshiyaozhengqurenkoujiegouhongli，tishengrenkouzhiliang，zhiliangtigaoyiweizhelaodongnenglitigao、danrenchuangzaodecaifugengduo。”luoshouguishuo。