文｜适道

yaoshinimennenggoudongchashijiansuobodezhongzi，zhidaonayikehuizhangcheng，nayikebuhuizhangcheng，qingduiwoshuoba。

——《麦克白》

zaiaishiyantian，tongyangyouwushukezhongzibeibosa。

ruhequebaoyazhong“haozhongzi”？weiruandecelveshi：huaqianmai，guangsawang。zheiyeyiweizhe，openaizhiyouyige“huangama”weiruan，danweiruanquekeyiyouxuduoge“haoage”。

zuijin，“huangtaizi”openaiyudaolexiaomafan。

yibianshishanliangchanpin“shanshanlaichi”。

shichangcengyucegpt-5kenengzai2023niandihuo2024nianxiajifabu。danopenaiqueren，jinnian10yuedekaifazhedahuijiangzhuanzhukaifazheshequhudongheapigengxin，qijianbuhuifabugpt-5。shouxijishuguanmira muratitoulu，gpt-5fabushijianjiangtuichizhi2025niandihuo2026nianchu。

jijiang“tibu”shangchangdeshi“caomei”（yuanq*）xinmoxing。zheiliangtianchuanchuxiaoxi，gaimoxingzuizaoyujinqiufabu。openaicheng，“caomei”keyijiejueyiqiancongweijianguodeshuxuewenti，bingbangzhugaijinopenaijijiangtuichude“liehuzuo”（orion）dayuyanmoxing。

yibianshigongdouyubo“zhongpanqinli”。jiqianshouxikexuejiailya sutskeverlikai，“chatgptjiagoushi”john schulmanzhuantouanthropic，openaizongcaijianlianchuanggreg brockmanxuanbu“zhangqixiujia”。zuichu11weilianchuangrujinjincunliangxi，gaocengyichengkongqiao。

zheiliangtian，bibaoliaoopenaiwanqile“zhuaneigui”youxi：gongsiguyongjishuneibufengxiandiaochayuanlianshourenshibumen，zhizaisaoqingneibu“keyihuodong”。

cijunandaoyujiazhouaianquanfaansb-1047youguan？gaifaanguiding“ruguoyuangongxiangjiazhouzongjianchazhangpiluyouguanbuanquanaimoxingdexinxi，faanhuiduijubaorenjinxingbaohu。”

haoba。wulunshi“neibutuanjie”haishi“anquanfengxian”，sam altmansihudoumeiyouzixindeliyou。

haoxiaoxishi：ruguofaanyilushunfeng，yeyaodeng2026nianshengxiao。liujialtman“zhuoneigui”deshijianzugoule。guanyuopenaijielianbuduande“xiaomafan”，weiruanbabazaoyidongchalezhenxiang。

ftjinqiyipianwenzhangzhichu：ruguomeiyou“11yuezhengbian”，weiruande“haiwangcelve”yebuhuichuxian。zheijiweiruanjiqitouzizheqiaoleyicijingzhong。suihou，weiruanqiaoranqidongleyixiang“openaijieduancelve”：tongguoduoyuantouzi、guangfanhezuobujuaibantu；tuichuzijia“xiaoermei”phixiliemoxing；zhaobingmaima，tuidongcduanaiyanfa。

来看时间线：

2yue，weiruan“songwennuan”faguochuchuanggongsimistral，zheishiweiruantouzidedierjiadamoxinggongsi；

3yue，weiruan“huobo”inflection，kaichuangjutou“longduanxinsilu”；

weiruan“dizhangzi”qingliangjimoxingphi-3chushi，xingnengkanbigpt-3.5 turbo；

4yue，weiruanxuanbuxiang g42touzi15 yimeiyuan，houzhehuitongguoazureyunxingqiaiyingyonghefuwu。

8yue，weiruanfabuphi-3.5xilie——phi-3.5-mini-instruct（38.2yicanshu）、phi-3.5-moe-instruct（419yicanshu）、phi-3.5-vision-instruct（41.5yicanshu）

zaihenduodisanfangjizhunceshizhong，“sanxiongdi”biaoxianxiangdangbucuo，bufenqingkuangjibaileqitalingxiandamoxing，baokuogugedegemini 1.5 flash、metadellama 3.1，shenzhizaiyixiejingjichangshangjibaileopenaidegpt-4o。

huixiang2geyueqian，zaimogendatongdi20jiequanqiuzhongguofenghuishang，caichongxincengyuyan：weiruanheopenaishiliangjiadulidegongsi，xianzaijianlilejinmidehezuo，danduliyeyiweizhetamenweilaikenenghuifendaoyangbiao。“suoyiweiruanshijishangbingmeiyouzijideaikaifa，tamenjibenshangbatawaibaojileopenai。”

ruguonifankanweiruanchengzhangshi，jiuhuifaxian“duoyuanxiazhu”shibeifanfuyanzhengguodezhendi，eropenaide“xiaomafan”zhishiweiruan“huaqian”decuihuaji。

1 初尝甜头：PC时代的法宝

1981nian，shoutaishiyongweiruanms-doscaozuoxitongdeibmgerenjisuanjiwenshi。

1989nian，ms-dosdeshichangfeneyijingjiejin90%。

zaijudachenggongxia，bier·gaiciminruidipanduan：suizhepcdepuji，caozuoxitongshichangjianghuijubian。（p.s.zheiyeshibafeitexuankekoukele，buxuanweiruandeyuanyin？）

weileyingduishichangdebuquedingxing，weiruanzai80niandai-90niandaichu“qitoubingjin”：

1、jixukaifams-dos； 

2、hezuoqitacongshiunixdegongsi，youqishijixukaifaxenixbanbendeunix（1980～1989nian）； 

3、daguimotouziwindows（1983niankaishi，1985nianfabuwindows1.0，1991nianfabuwindows3.0）； 

4、yuibmhezuokaifaos/2（1985nian）； 

5、goumaishengkeluzicaozuoxitonggongsi（sco）20%gufen，gaigongsishidangshipcshangzuidadeunixxitongxiaoshoushang（1989nian）； 

6、kaifaweiruanoffice，zhengyitaokeyikuacaozuoxitongyunxingdeyingyongchengxutaojian（1990nian）。

shangshuguochengzhong，weiruanzhuyaojiangxiwangyazailewindows，suiranzheiyiweiqitayazhudeshibai。

hulianwangshidai，changdaotiantoudeweiruanyijiuzunxun“guangsawang”celve。

1995nian，bier·gaicizai“hulianwangchaoxibeiwanglu”zhongzhichu：hulianwangyewubujinshiweiruandexinqianxian，tahaihuirangjingzhengduishougengqiangda，shenzhiwanquanqudaiweiruandecaozuoxitong。（p.s. yidongshidaiyinggaizhongdu）

genjugaicidezhidaosixiang，weiruanzaihulianwanglingyujinxingdaliang“duoyuanxiazhu”——congieliulanqi（1995 nian）daomsnmenhu、sousuoyinqing（1995 nian），zaidao4yimeiyuanshougouhotmail（1997nian），yiji messenger （1999nian）........

tongshi，weiruanzaicaozuoxitonglingyuyemeixianzhe：1997nian，weiruanhua1.5 yimeiyuangoumaipingguo5%gufen；gaijiaoyishejipingguojiangiesheweimacdemorenliulanqi。

2 折戟于专情：移动时代挨打

2007nian6yue29ri，iphonezhengshishangjiaxiaoshou。

dangshideweiruanceoshidifu·baoermodaxiao：“wodetian！buruhua99meijinqumaiyizhimotuoluolaq！yaorenmenhua500meijinqumaiyibushouji？zheijianzhishikaiwanxiaoba！pingguozheishiyaozaishichangshangmaizuiguideshouji。iphonededingweihedingjia，meiyoujihuihuoderenhezhongyaodeshichangfene。”

meiyouanjian，haibunenghuandianchi；buzhichicaixin，liancunchukayebunengcha。iphoneganggangdanshengshi，meirenjuedetahuikaiqiyigeshidai，baokuoweiruan。

zailaikanbaoermoyanzhongde“hao”zhinengshouji：

1、shoujia100-200meiyuan，erbushi500meiyuanyishang； 

2、zhuanzhuyuqiyeyonghu，erbushixiaofeizhe； 

3、yinggaiyouwulijianpan； 

4、shujushiyongyinggaizuixiaohua，yibaohuyouxiandewangluodaikuan； 

5、daijiyitianweidanwei，erbushixiaoshi； 

6、摔不坏！

ruciyupan，nanguaiweiruancuoguoleyizhenggeshidai。

erqie，weiruanhaiyanxulepcshidaideshangyemoshi——xiangkaomaishoujicaozuoxitongzhifu，shouquanfeiyuewei10~25meiyuan。

yifangmian，windowxitongzaishoujishangbuneimewanmeishipei。

lingyifangmian，maiiphonebaosongiosxitong；yiji，gengshiheshoujideandroidxitongmianfei！

jibianzai2010nian，weiruantuichumianfeibanwindows phone，bingzaiyinianhouyunuojiyadachengledujiahezuohuobanguanxi，danhaishiweishiyiwan。

3 买下所有种子：AI时代赢家

keguanlaijiang，weiruanzhejiyuyidongshidai，bunengquanguaibaoermodewupan。

cuojiucuozai“guoyuzixin”。pcshidaideweiruanyingzai“jinshen”，fensanshouyihefengxian；yidongshidaideweiruanbaizai“pianzhi”，dandu“yabao”guyoumoshi，bujinmeiyou“duoyuanxiazhu”，shenzhilianqitakenengxingdoumeiyouchangshi。

zhongyu，denglailequanxindeaishidai。

chiyiqianzhangyizhideweiruanzenmekenengzhirenopenaiyigeerzi？

genghekuang，zaiguoqubangeshiji，weiruanyijingjiailingyutourushubaiyimeiyuan，bingchizishushiyimeiyuanshougouziranyuyanchulilingyudelingxiangongsi，baokuo2021nian4yuehaozi197yimeiyuanshougounuance。

weiruandeaicelvezhengshimenghuipcshidai，qizhaoliaode“zhongzi”tongyangcunzaijingzhengguanxi。

2019nian，weiruanxiangopenaitouzi30yimeiyuan，bingtigongmianfeishiyongbingsousuoshujukudequanxian。bujiuhou，weiruanhua100yimeiyuanshougouopenai de49%guquan，zheirangweiruanchanpinjiangchatgptxiliewufengzhenghe，bingfenpeiopenaishouyi。

tongshi，weiruanyedalifazhanneibuaikaifatuanduimicrosoft research。

zhishiopenaiguoyuyouxiu，yidudaozhi“weiruanyijinglunluowei openai deyige it bumen”！

youqudeshi，jinnian6yue，pingguoxuanbujiangzaiqicaozuoxitongzhongjichengchatgpt，erweiruanzijiadewindowshaimeiyoujichatgptzheigejihui。

daodishiburang“zijiaren”shangzhuo，haishizhuoziyijingtaijile？

dangran，openaiyexiang“qiaomimi”raoguoweiruangaoqian。sam altmandazheshijiancha，nazhe“zuixinyulanbanbenchatgpt”qiangweiruandekehu。liru，qunianopenaizaoyuweiruanshuzhou，xiangkehutigonglegpt-4defangwenquanxian。genjuthe informationzuijinbaodao，openaimoxingshouruchaoguoweiruan，erqieyuelaiyueduoqiyekehuxuanzezhijiecongopenaigoumai，erbushitongguoweiruan。

an“yinmoulun”，gpt-5chichibugongkaikenengyouzheigeyuanyin？

chulekaitouliejudeyixilie“xiazhu”xingwei，ciqianweiruanhaijiangzhenghechatgptdebingxuanchuanwei“zheishiopenaiyanfadechatgptjingzhengduishou”，bingjiangbingsousuoshujukutigongjiqitaaichuchuanggongsishiyong。

erdangmetakaiyuanllamamoxingshi，weiruanhenkuaijiuyi“shouxuanhezuohuoban”detouxianyumetadachenghezuo。

weiheweiruanbuzaiopenaizaoqijiangqiwanquanshougou？

henjiandan，dangshiweiruanwufayucedaodishiopenai、cohere、anthropichuohugging facesheixianpaochulai。genghekuang，transformerzuizhongyekenengbeitidai。sheidoubuzhidao。

One More Thing

zhongsuozhouzhi，gugexianglaixihuan“ziligengsheng”——goujianwanzhengdeaiduizhan。

那么，亚马逊呢？

2011nian，pingguofabusiri；8geyuehougugebushugoogle now，suihouyamaxunyeyazhuzhinengzhushou。

danyamaxunmeiyouzhinengshouji，yushitajiangzhongxinfangzaigoujianyitaoqingqiaoshebei——alexa。

suirandao2020nian，alexaxiaoliangdashuyitai，danruguonibatadangzuozhinengyingjian，jiushizaiwanchouxiang。

genjuthe informationbaodao，yamaxunyuanjihuazai2022nian11yuetuichuzijiatransformer llm（bedrock），danzaikandao chatgpthou，jiuzhijiefangqile。

ketandeshi，2018nianyilai，yamaxunyijingfangqileopenai、anthropichecoheredenggongsitichudegezhongchanpinhezuoheguquantiyi。

haihaowanxing，2023niankaishi，yamaxunzhongyujuedingyaohuaqianle！

yishi，zhongxinnahui“bedrock”mingcheng，yongyudisanfangaijiejuefangan，mudeshirangkehuzaiawsshangyunxingzheixiechanpin。

ershi，2023nian9yue，yamaxunshoucixianganthropictouzi12.5yimeiyuan；2024nian3yue，yamaxunyouxianganthropiczhuitou27.5yimeiyuan。zhici，anthropicbeiyamaxunhegugeguafen。（meicuo，gugeyexiazhule）

sanshi，yamaxunyedalikaifazijiamoxing，lirutitan、amazon q。chucizhiwai，jinqibibaoliao，yamaxunzhengzaimimiyanfayikuanliaotianjiqiren，daihaoweimetis，youwangtiaozhan chatgptbazhudiwei。metisbujinshixinxizhushou，hainengshengrenaidaili。zheiyiweizhetakeyigenjuxianyoushujuzidongzhixingfuzarenwu，birudingzhijiaqixingcheng、kongzhizhinengjiajushebei，shenzhinengyudinghangban。

zongdelaishuo，lejiejutou“duoyuanxiazhu”beihoudegushi，niyenengyuceweilaijianghuifashengdeshiqing。danjibianjutoumaixiasuoyou“zhongzixuanshou”，yehuiyouyikezacaozai“mangqu”wanqiangdimaochutoulai。

sheishizheikezacaoni？zhiyoushijiannvwuzhidao。