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aoyunshenghuomeiyoudianranmengniudewutai。

jinnian，haodu30yiyuan，chengweiaolinpikequanqiuhezuohuobandemengniu，yi“tianshengyaoqiang”dezitailiangxiangquanqiuwutai。yihandeshi，bingmeinengdapochixuzengzhangbuzaidemozhou。

zheiweiruyejutoudetuishishenzhihaichaochuleshichangyuqi。

8yue28riwan，mengniuruye（02319.hk，yixiajiancheng“mengniu”）gongbu2024nianbannianbao。nianbaoshujuxianshi，2024nianshangbannian，mengniushixianyingshou446.705yiyuan（renminbi，xiatong），tongbixiajiang12.6%；jinglirunwei25.32yiyuan，tongbixiahua17.2%。

mengniudejieshishi，youyuruzhipinxingyegongxumaoduntuxian，xiaofeixuqiubujiyuqi，daozhijinnianshangbannianyejibugouliangyan。

huoxushishichangduiqiyejidedanyou，jinnianyilai，mengniudegujiachixuxiahua。nianchuzhijin，mengniugujialeijixiadie34.59%，shizhizhengfa274.33yigangyuan。

shijishang，2016nian9yue，luminfangrenmengniujituanzongcai，bishimengniugujiawei13gangyuan，cihoumengniugujiayilubiaosheng，2021nianzuigaoshichongdao52.6gangyuan。danzai2024nianqixierenzhishi，gujiaquediedao16gangyuan。

doudouzhuanzhuanzhihou，mengniudeshizhiyouhuidaolejinianqian，liciqiande“shuangqianyi”mubiaoyijingyuelaiyueyuan。

muqianlaikan，mengniurengburongleguan，ciqian，jigouyexiadiaoleduimengniudepingji。

jianyinguojiyanjiubaogaocengzhichu，liaomengniushangbannianbiaoxianpiruo，nanyidachengqikuozhangjingyinglirunlvdemubiao，zengzhangzhanwangjutiaozhanxing，jiangqipingjiyou“paoyingdashi”jiangzhi“zhongxing”，mubiaojiayou18.9gangyuanjiangzhi13.2gangyuan，jianggongsijinniandeyingliyucejiang18%，liaochunlidie3%。

bujiuqian，quanqiujinrongjituanmogendatongyefabiaobaogao，yujimengniuruyemingnianhuimianlintiaozhan，bingjuedingxiadiaoqitouzipingjiyouzengchijiangzhizhongxing，xiaojianmubiaojia。

zaizheigeruyehandong，sheinengnizhuantuishidemengniu？

-01-全面下滑的一季

zheishiyijibujiyuqideyeji。

zaichixuderupinxingyegongdayuqiu、xiaofeibujiyuqidexingyeqiantixia，2024nianshangbannian，mengniuyingshouwei446.705yiyuan，tongbixiajiang12.6%；jinglirunwei25.32yiyuan，tongbixiahua17.2%。

tongqi，meiguyingli0.623yuan，tongbixiahua18.56%；youyuyingshouxiajiang、jingyinglirunlvyejinjinzengzhangle0.6%。

zheiyeshiyifenyewuquanxianxiahuadecaibao。

jiezhimuqian，mengniudechanpinzhuyaofenweiliukuai：

1、yitelunsu、chunnaiweidaibiaodeyetainaiyewu，zhuyaoshengchanjijingxiaochaogaowenmiejunnai、ruyinliao；

2、yimeirixianlao、youyicweidaibiaodediwensuannaiyewu，zhuyaoshengchanjijingxiaodiwensuannai；

3、yimeirixianyu、xiaoxianyuweidaibiaodexiannaiyewu，zhuyaoshengchanjijingxiaodanbainiurudeng；

4、yisuibian、lvsexinqing、aixuedengweidaibiaodebingqilin（bingpin）yewu，zhuyaoshengchanjijingxiaohanrubingqilin；

5、yiruibuen、beilamiweidaibiaodenaifenyewu，zhuyaoshengchanjijingxiaonaifen；

6、shougoumiaokelanduo，yinailaobangweidaibiaodenailaoyewu，zhuyaoshengchanjijingxiaonailao。

chuyuyewutiliangyijizengzhangsududekaoliang，bencicaibao，zhipiluleyetainai、bingjilin、naifenhenailaodeshouru。

caibaoshujuxianshi，jinnianshangbannian，mengniuzhanzongshouru81.2%deyetainaishouruwei362.615yiyuan，tongbixiahua12.9%，bannianshaomailejiangjin54yiyuan。

bingqilinshouruwei33.714yiyuan，tongbixiahua21.75%；naifenshouruwei16.353yiyuan，tongbixiahua13.6%；nailaoshouruwei21.143yiyuan，tongbixiahua6.28%。

tu：mengniu2024nianshangbanniancaiwubiaoxianlaiyuan：gongsicaibao，《tingtongtech》jietu

lirunbugou，jiangbenlaicou。

congshujulaikan，mengniuruyeshangbannianxingzouzaiduoxiangkongfeidelushang。

shangbannian，mengniudexiaoshoujijingxiaofeiyongcongquniantongqide139.06yiyuanjianshao8.8%，jiangzhi126.8yiyuan。qizhong，chanpinhepinpaixuanchuanjixingxiaofeiyongcong2023nianshangbanniande51.2yiyuanjiangzhi44.99yiyuan，tongbijianshao12.1%。

bujinxiaoshoujijingxiaofeiyongdedaoleyidingdekongzhi，guanlifeiyongyezaikongzhi。

nianbaoshujuxianshi，2024nianshangbannian，mengniudexingzhengfeiyongcong2023nianshangbanniande21.85yiyuanxiajiangdaole19.41yiyuan，tongbijianshao11.1%。erqitafeiyongzhongdejiaoyufujiafei、chengshiweihujiansheshuijiqitashuixiangtongbijianshao7.8%，cong2.65yiyuanjiangzhi2.44yiyuan。

danjiangbenzengxiaorengdibuguolirunxiahuadefudu。congcaibaoshujulaikan，youyumengniuruyeyingshouxiahuadefudugengda，daozhimengniuruyedejingyingliruncong32.75yiyuanxiajiangdaole31.19yiyuan，tongbijianshaole4.8%。

duiyuxiabannianxingqing，zaizhongqiyejifabuhuishang，mengniubiaoshichijinshentaidu，danyouxinxinwanchengquannianjingyinglirunlvkuozhangdemubiao，yujixiabannianshourutongbichipinghuolveyouzengzhang，quannianshouruyujixiahuazhonggeweishu。

-02-难以实现的“双千亿”目标

shijishang，zheibushimengniuyejideshoucixiahua。2023nian，mengniuyingshouwei986.2yiyuan，tongbizengzhang6.51%。jinguanyingshoushixianlezengzhang，danjinglirunzaixiahua，dangnian，mengniushixianjinglirun48.09yiyuan，tongbixiahua9.31%。

erzaozai2017nian，mengniucenggaodiaogongbu“shuangqianyi”mubiao，ji“2020nianmengniuxiaoshoueyaodadaoqianyi，shizhiyeyaodadaoqianyi”。

buguo，zhongzhongyuanyin，mengniudeqianyiyingshoumubiaoyizaishuangyue。2020-2022nian，mengniuyingshouguimofenbiewei760.3yiyuan、881.4yiyuan、925.9yiyuan；jinglirunwei35.35yiyuan、50.26yiyuan、53.03yiyuan。

shijishang，zai2016nian，luminfangrenmengniujituanzongcai，bishimengniugujiawei13gangyuan，cihoumengniugujiazai2021nianzuigaoshichongdao52.6gangyuan，shizhitupo2000yiyuan。

danzai2024nianqixierenzhishi，mengniudegujiaquediedao16gangyuan。youqishijinnian7yuedi，mengniuruyezaiganggushichanggujialianxudiliugejiaoyirixiadie，yidudiejin13gangyuan，shizhidiepo500yigangyuan，chuang8nianlaixindi。zheiyeshidemengniushizhongmeinengshixian“shuangqianyi”demubiao。

zaibushaoyeneirenshikanlai，mengniudewentishishijianleijide。

一方面，频繁更换集团最高领导人，rangyeneiduigongsidewendingxingchanshenglezhiyi。

jinnian3yue，mengniujielianliangciduiguanlicengjinxingdiaozheng，huanxialeluminfang，fulaomengniurengaofeishangma。suihou，qinglijunhuorenmengniuruyedongshizhangyizhi。 zhici，zaiduanduanbannianshijianli，mengniujinglileguanlicengdequanmianhuanxue。

shijishang，conglishishanglaikan，mengniudeguanlicengbiandongjiujiaoweipinfan。duibilingyijiaruyejutouyili，zi2005nianhou，bianyizhiyoupangangrenyibashou，ermengniuzehuanlesirenzhangmenren，2024nianmengniuyouyinglailediwuren。

lingyifangmian，weilekuozhangbuduanshougou，dailaidefudanyezaixiaxingzhouqikunraozhemengniu。

zaozai2023nian，mengniujiuzaicaibaozhongbiaoshi，lianyingtouzigongsidelirunxiahuazhijieyingxianglemengniudelirun。

2013nian，mengniuchizijinbaiyigangyuanshougouyashili，ranyashiliquelianxusannianxianrukuisunzhuangtai，mengniuyeyinqidaeshangyujianzhichengdanzhebuxiaodecaiwuyali。ciwai，gongsihaiyinguanlianjiaoyiweiguiwentishoudaogangjiaosuodianmingpiping。

2016nian，mengniuyoushougouleduomeizizhongguo，bingjiangyashili、duomeizizhongguozhenghezhi“yashiliguoji”qixia。danyihandeshi，duomeiziquebiaoxianbujia，bingzhijietuoleileyashiliyeji。zai2022nian，mengniubudebuchushouduomeizi。

2019nian，mengniuxianhoushougoulezhongguoshengmuzigongsishengmugaokehebeimila。buguo，shengmugaokechuxiandaejukui，pingjieyumengniudeguanlianjiaoyideyicunhuo；tongyang，beilamizaishougouhouyejinglirundafuxiahua。

2021nian，mengniuyoushougoumiaokelanduo。nantaomozhoudeshi，miaokelanduobudanxianruyejichuxianwenti，haishenxiancaiwuzaojiadengduozhongfumianchouwen。

pinfandeshougouhebinggoulingmengniudeshangyudaguimozengzhang，danyezaochengyigeweiji。

shangyuzengzhangshihaoshi，danruoshougoubinggoudeqiyezichanzhiliangbuduanxiajiang，jiuxuyaojinxingjitijianzhi，zuizhongyingxiangzijidelirun。

-03-外部行业承压

duiyumengniuhezhenggezhongguonaiyedeyanjunxingshi，mengniuyetanranchengren。

jinnian7yue，zaidi15jienaixiedahuishang，shangrenyilaihenshaoduiwaidegaofeihanjianfashengcheng，“zhongguonaiyemianlinzhe2008nianyilaidezuiyanjuntiaozhan。”

高飞并非危言耸听。

shishishang，congjinqishangshiruqiluxufabudebannianbaolaikan，zilixingjiandoutouluyige“can”zi。

ju《tingtongtech》buwanquantongji，jinnianshangbannian，xiongmaorupinyingshouruyue3.60yiyuan，tongbijianshao19.47%；yangguangruyeyingyeshouruyue2.54yiyuan，tongbijianshao8.15%；sanyuangufenyingyeshouruyue38.52yiyuan，tongbijianshaoyue9.05%，jinglirunyue1.28yiyuan，tongbijianshaoyue40.69%。

yigebeijingshi，xugongjunhengxingmaodun、chanyelianrenxingjiaoxiao，daozhiruqiriyijiannan。

ciqian，guojianainiuchanyejishutixishouxikexuejialishenglibiaoshi，“2024nian，niunaiyuannaiguoshengdeqingkuangjiaoquniangengyanzhong，yuannaishougoujiachixuxiadie，daozhinaijiahechengbenchuxianleyoujiluyilaideshoucidaogua。”

yucitongshi，guoneiruzhipinxiaofeixuqiupiruandeqingkuangyufayanzhong。

mashangyingshujuxianshi，jinnianyijiduwoguoruzhipindexiaoshouexiahuale14.24%，chunniunaipinleixiahua11.95%，suannaixiahua16.78%。

niersenshujuyexianshi，2021-2023nian，woguoruzhipinquanqudaoshouruzengsutongbifenbiewei7.9%、-6.5%、-2.4%，jinnianyijiduruzhipinquanqudaoxiaoshouezengsutongbixiahua3.1%。

weilezengjiashichangdeanquanbianji，mengniukaishitigaohuigouhefenhongdelidu。

guoqu，caizhongzhongguoruyegaosufazhandejieduan，mengniuchengleyouxiude“xianjinniu”。jibianshizairuojingjizhouqide2023nian，mengniugupiaohuigoujinegongji7.96yigangyuan；tongshi，jiangpaixibilitishengzhi40%，paifaqimoguximeiguputonggurenminbi0.489yuan，hejipaifaxianjinguli19.24yiyuan。

zaifabu2024nianbannianbaodetongshi，mengniuyexuanbujihuayuweilai12geyueneijinxingzongguimozuigaoda20yigangyuandegufenhuigou。

zhenjinbaiyinlaiguoranyouxiao。8yue29ri，mengniuruyepanzhongyefangliang，zhangchao10%。

zhishi，zheishifounengwanzhumengniudetuishi，renghennanshuo。

参考资料：《30亿美元赞助奥运，蒙牛为何依然卖不动？》，牛刀财经。

（声明：本文基于公开资料撰写，仅作为信息交流，不构成任何投资参考建议。）—END—