记者 | 安晶

编辑｜刘海川

2024nian9yue11ri，faguoxinzongli、laiziyouyigonghedangdemixieer·jiangyuxiazhouzujianfaguoxinzhengfu。

jinnian7yuedeguominyihui（xiayiyuan）xuanjuhou，youyuxinzonglichichiweiding，faguoyizhichuyukanshouzhengfuzhong。danxinzhengfuzujianbingbudaibiaozhefaguozhengtanhuiguiwending。

xiannian73suidezhengtanlaojiangbaniyejiangmianlinyigejishoudewenti：ruhebimianxinzhengfugangchulujiuzaiguominyihuidebuxinrentoupiaozhongbeituifan。

baniyehexinzhengfudelingyigenantishijinkuaizhiding2025cainianyusuanan，bingqiexiangoumengzhengmingfaguojiangxuejiankaizhi、jianshaochiziyimianzaooumengchufa。

zheiliangdanantidouyuzaiguominyihuixuanjuzhonghuodezuiduoxiweidezuoyilianmeng“xinrenminzhenxian”xixixiangguan。

faguozongtongaimaniuaier·makelongyueguozuoyilianmeng、renminglaiziyouyizhengdangdebaniyechurenzonglijinulexinrenminzhenxian。gailianmengyefanduixuejiankaizhi，zhuzhangjinyibutigaofaguodegonggongzhichu。

zaixinrenminzhenxianyubaniyeshirushuihuodeqingkuangxia，ciqianbeifaguozhuliuzhengdangsuotuoqidejiyouyiguominlianmengchengweilebaniyebixulalongde“zaowangzhe”。

国民联盟成“赢家”

baniyesuoshudegonghedangzai577xidefaguoguominyihuizhongdexiweibuzu50xi。zaiguominyihuixuanjuzhong，xinrenminzhenxiannaxia193gexiweichengweizuidazhengdanglianmeng，dandiyujueduiduoshude289xi。

makelongbingmeiyourenmingxinrenminzhenxiandehouxuanrenweifaguoxinzongli，ershixuanzelebaniye。zheiyijuedingzaodaoxinrenminzhenxiandeyizhitaofa。shangzhouliu，xinrenminzhenxianzaifaguojuxing，quanfachaoguo10wanrencanjia。

xinrenminzhenxianyijingduibaniyehanhua，zhunbeizaiguominyihuifaqibuxinrentoupiaojiangqiganxiatai。danyouyuxiweishubugou，jinkaoxinrenminzhenxianzijiwufarangbaniyexiatai。

在国民议会中，席位数排名第二和第三的分别为马克龙所属的中间派联盟“在一起”以及极右翼政党国民联盟。“在一起”是巴尼耶的盟友，巴尼耶已经明确新政府不会回撤马克龙的退休制度改革。但“在一起”和巴尼耶所属gonghedangdexiweishujiazaiyiqijinwei200duoxi，yiranmeiyoudadaojueduiduoshude289xi。

ruguopaimingdisandeguominlianmengxuanzeyuxiweizuiduodexinrenminzhenxianlianshouduibaniyexinzhengfufaqibuxinrentoupiao，baniyedejiejuzhiyouxiatai。zaizheiyangdeqingkuangxia，guominlianmengchengweilenengzuoyoujushideguanjian。

danmakelongdezhongjianpailianmengyuxinrenminzhenxianzai7yuedeguominyihuixuanjudierluntoupiaoshidachenglehezuo，yizuzhiguominlianmengshangwei。youlezheiyibeijing，baniyerangguominlianmengchengyuanzaixinzhengfuzhongrenyaozhidekenengxinghendi。weilehuodeguominlianmengzaiyihuizhongdezhichi，baniyezhunbeizaibufenzhengce，tebieshiyiminzhengceshangxianggaidangkaolong。

shangzhou，baniyejieshoulebeirenmingweifaguozonglihoude。duiyuyiminwenti，tarenweifaguobianjingchengweile“loushao”，zhizedangjumeinengkongzhiyiminshuliang。baniyehaibiaoshi，suirantayuguominlianmengzaiyishixingtaishangmeiyoutaiduogongtongdian，“danwozunzhongtamendeyishixingtai。”

baniyeyuanbenjiuduiyiminchigengqiangyingtaidu。zaicanjia2021nianzongtongdaxuanshi，shiweiyiminjiashuzaifaguohuodehefashenfenshezhixianzhi、zantingjieshoubinanzhe。

jubaodao，weijiadaduiyimindexianzhi，baniyezhunbeihuifufaguoqianzongtongnigula·sakeqishishelideyiminbu。muqianyiminwentiyoufaguoneizhengbuguanxia。

sakeqizhizhengshizhuanmenshelileyiminbuyixianzhiyiminjinrufaguo。gaibumenzaodaozuoyizhengdangmengliepengji，zuizhongzhongxinbingruneizhengbu。sakeqidezuofabeishiweiguyiyinghefaguodangshidefanyiminlangchao，yizuzhijiyouyizhengdangshangwei。

mianduibaniyezaiyiminwentishangdichudeganlanzhi，guominlianmengxuanbuyuanyijizheiweixinzongliyigejihui。

guominlianmengzaiouzhouyihuideyiyuancheng，zhiyaobaniyebuchujiguominlianmengdehongxian，gaidangwuyizaihaowubiyaodeqingkuangxiafanduita。

laigelirenweibaniyemuqianzhanxianduiguominlianmengxuanmindezunzhong，“takanshangqulijieyiminzhengcecunzaiwenti”。tabiaoshi，baniyezujianxinzhengfuhouxuyaoxiangguominyihuigongbuqizhengcefangxiang。baniyegongbuzhengcehou，guominlianmengzaiduiqizuochupanduan。

laigelitongshiyeqiangdiao，guominlianmengbingmeiyoupaichu“zaiweilaishuzhouhuoshuyue”duixinzhengfujinxingbuxinrentoupiaodekeneng。

新财年预算难题

duiguominlianmengshenchuganlanzhidebaniyeyezaishituanfuzuoyilianmeng。tazaishangzhoudecaifangzhongqiangdiaozijibushipaixizhuyizhe，xinzhengfuxuyaoxinabaokuozuoyizaineidegelurenshi。danjiezhimuqian，zuoyilianmengzhongdelingtouyangwurenyuanyubaniyehezuo。

ju，baniyezhengzaijiechuyixieyijingdanchuzhengtandezuoyilaojiang，baokuoshehuidangqianzongtonghouxuanrensaigelin·luoyaer。baniyexiwangbazheixiezuoyilaojiangnaruxinzhengfu，yixueruozuoyilianmengdediyi。

danxinzhengfuxuyaozhidingde2025cainianyusuananbiranjiangzaodaozuoyilianmengqiangliefandui。

2023nian，faguocaizhengchizizhangdpbizhongwei5.5%，chaoguooumengshedingde3%biaozhun。oumengyujinnian7yueduifaguodeng7gechengyuanguoqidong“caizhengchizijiuzhengchengxu”。

gaichengxuqidonghou，9yue20riqianxiangoumengtijiaoweilai4dao7niandejianshaochizifangan。ruguobucaiqujiuzhengcuoshi，xiangguanoumengchengyuanguomeinianjiangjiaonafakuan，jineweigdpde0.1%。faguoyixiangoumengshenqingyanqi，jiangzai10yue15ritijiaojianshaochizifangan。

zaizheizhiqian，faguoxinzhengfuxuyaozai10yue1riqianxiangguominyihuitijiao2025cainianyusuanan。weilefuheoumengyaoqiu，baniyezhengfuxuyaozaiyusuanzhongdafuxuejiangonggongkaizhi。

faguokanshouzhengfutiyijiang2025cainianyusuanweichizai2024cainianshuiping，yejiushi4920yiouyuan。dangusuan，xiangfuheoumengbiaozhun，faguohaixuyaozhishaoxuejian300yiouyuanzhichu。

zuoyilianmengheguominlianmengciqiandoufanduixuejiangonggongzhichu。zaiyihuixuanjuzhong，guominlianmenggaibianleshuofa，chengnuoyaotongguoxuejianduiyimindeshehuifulikaizhi、tianbushuishouloudongdenglaikongzhifaguodecaizhengchizi。xinrenminzhenxianzejianchikuodagonggongzhichu，tigaoguominshehuifulihezuidigongzibiaozhun。

2025cainianyusuananjiangchengweiduibaniyehefaguoxinzhengfudeshougeceshi。guominlianmengdeouzhouyihuiyiyuanlaigelifanghua，xincainianyusuandengguanjianwentijiangjuedingguominlianmengduibaniyedexingdong。