文 | 价值星球Planet 林杰

编辑 | 计然

jinnianguoqingjiaqi，chujingyoureduchixupansheng。erzaichuantongdefeiji、gaotiedengchuxingfangshizhiwai，youlunzhengzhujianyingdezhongguoyoukedeqinglai，chengweichuxinglvyouxinfangshi。

tashangyisoupiaofude“haishanggongdian”，zaijingzhifuwuxia，xiangshouyizhongwuyulunbideshehuayufangsongtiyan——zheikenengshiyoulunbeichengwei“piaofuzaihaishangdehuangjinchanye”deyuanyinzhiyi。raner，yizhiyilai，zheige“huangjinchanye”zhongjiduqueshaozhongguoshenying。

danjinniandeshiyi，qingkuangdequeyouxiebuyiyangle。zaiguoqingqianxi，feizhushujuxianshi，youlunshangpindeyudingliangtongbiquniandazhangjin600%。zheibeihou，youlunzhengchengweizhongchanmenchujingyoudexinbiaopei。

十年增长60倍

suiranjulichunjiejiaqihaiyousangeduoyuedeshijian，danzaixiechengyoulunguanfangzhanghaoshang，2025nianmscrongyaohaoyoulundechunjiehangci，yijingkaishilehuoreyushou，mianxiangquanjiasirenchuyoudeyangtaifang，jiagebiaodaole2435yuanqi/ren。

dangran，guoqingjiaqigengweirenao，zhongduochuhaihangxianfugailezhenggejiaqi——

congshanghaichufa，qianwangribende5tian4wanshenduyou，suiranzhiyou1266geminge，danpingjie“kuangxiangqucanting”dezhimingdu，yiji“jiabankalaokdasai”dengzhuduoyulehuodong，piaojiahenkuaixiaoshouyikong。julejie，gaiyoulun4renhaijingfangshoujiawei1699yuan/ren；

congtianjinchufaquhanguode7.75wandunyoulun，guoqingqijianjinxuyaoqianyuanzuoyou，biankenaxiashuangrenneicangyangtaifang，hangxingzhonghaipeiyimoshu、biaoyan、shudu、zhuomianzuqiu、pingpangqiubisaidengjingcaidehudongxiaoyouxi；

erbeijingqianwangdizhonghaiwuguodeyoulun，shigangxiashuibujiudexinchuan，chuanshuoshizuijukejihanliang，qihangxianfugailemilan、walaita、basailuonei、neibulesidengdi，buguojiaqiangengshihezhongchan，shujuxianshi，yangtaishuangrenjianshoujia31800yuan/ren，qiebubaohanqitafeiyong。

feizhushujuxianshi，jinnianguoqingjiaqiqianyigeyue，guojiyoulundeyudingliangjiao2019niantongqizengzhangchao130%；erguoqingjieqianxi，youlunshangpindeyudinglianggengshitongbizengzhanglejin600%。

weijingyoulunchanpinkaifajianyingxiaogaojifuzongcaichenweiyunzhichu，jinguanbeimeidiqurengshiouzhouyoulundezuidakeyuanshichang，danyazhou，tebieshizhongguo，youwangxunsujueqichengweizengzhangzuiweixunmengdekeyuanshichang。

ouzhoulvyouweiyuanhuizhongguofenqufuzhuxiwuzhaohongtongyangqiangdiao，zhangqiyilai，zhongguoyizhishiouzhouyoulunlvyouyebukehuoquedekeyuanshichangzhiyi。

shujuxianshi，2015—2018nian，zhongguoyoulunlvyouchanyeshoucichaoguodeguo，chengweiquanqiudierdayoulunshichang。2016nian，zhongguoyoulunchujingyoukenianzongliangdadaole210wanren，mugangyoulunjiedailiangzaiduanduan11nianneizengzhangle60bei，wanchenglecong2006niande18soucizengzhangdao2017niande1098soucidehualituibian。

raner，youyudangshiyoulunchujingyoushangwufadadaoshendulvyoutiyan，henkuaizaigaosuzengzhanghoujinruxiahuaqi。2019nian，yixiehaohuayoulunfenfenlikaizhongrihanxianlu，zhuanerjingyingouzhouhuojialebidiqudexianlu，danzheibingmeiyingxiangqizengzhangqushi。genjuguojiyoulunxiehuideshuju，2012-2019nian，zhongguoyoulunchuyourencizhuniandizeng，cong66wanrencizengjiazhijin500wanrenci。

jinjiezhebianshixinguanyiqingdailaideyiduanjingmoqi。

zhongguoshehuikexueyuanlvyouyanjiuzhongxinfabu《lvyoulvpishu》renwei，2024nianzhongguochujingyoujiangquanmianfusu，youlunlvxingchengweichujingyoudexinxuanze。

juzhongchuanyoulungongsipilu，jinnianyilai，guochanshousoudaxingyoulun“aida·modou”haomeibanjunxiyinchaoguo4700mingyouke。zi2024nian1yue1rishouhangzhijin，guochanshousoudaxingyoulunlvkeyunshuliangtupo15wanrenci，wanchengle37gehangci。

shujutongji，zinianchuzhijin，baohan“aida·modouhao”zainei，yiyouwusoudaxingyoulunzaishanghaimugangtouruyunying，gongchengzaichurujinglvkechaoguo51.6wanrenci，zheiyishuziyibijin2019niantongqideshuiping。ciwai，juyouguanbumenshuju，jinnianyilaiyiyouchao20souguojiyoulunzaiwoguojingneigangkoukaizhanyunying。

guojiyoulunxiehuigongbudeshujuxianshi，2023nianquanqiuyoulunkeyunliangdadao3170wanrenci，jiao2019nianzengzhang7%，2024nianzhenggexingyeyouwangjixubaochizengzhangtaishi，yujikeyunliangjiangzengjiazhi3570wanrenci，tongbizengzhangjin13%。

邮轮因何增长？

yuqitalvyoufangshixiangbi，guoneilvyouchanyezhuanjiawuliyunrenwei，youlunlvyoudujiaganqiang、bianjiexinggao、xiuxianhuodongfengfu，qiejuyougaoxingjiabi，shiyoulunlvyouzaidazhonglvyoushichangzhongbaozhengxiyinlidesidayinsu。

xiangqianzhe61440kecuicanshihualuoshiqishuijingdehualixuanti，peiyizhangda80midehaishangledmenghuantianmuqiongding——mscdizhonghaiyoulunshangdezheiyiwanghongdibiao，yiqiwuyulunbideshehua、menghuanyuguizuqixi，xiyinzhezhongduoyoukefenfenqianwang。

ciwai，chengzuoyoulunzuizhongyaodejiushichidezenmeyang。

yixieyouluntigonggaozhiliangfuwu，huizhijiejiangzaocansongdaoyoukefangjianli，shixiangyixia，meitianqichuanghou，mianxiangdahaihechaoyangxiangshouyidunzaocan，lvyoudujiaganpumianerlai。erqie，weilezaiguoqingqijianxiyinzhongguoyouke，bushaoguojiyoulunzhuanmenpinqinglezhongguochushituanduizuozhen，jiaozi、chaomian、jidanguanbingyingyoujinyou，ruguonixihuanxican，niupai、ruge、yidalimianyenengxianchangzhizuo。dangran，zizhucanting20xiaoshichaozhangkaifang。yixieyoulunhaizaimeigedianweizhuanmenpinqinglezhongguofuwuyuan，jiejuezhongguoyoukeyuyanwenti。

chuleshangshuxiyinli，nianqingxiaofeizhedejiameng，yezhutuijinniandeyoulunyezengzhang。shujuxianshi，yu2019niantongqixiangbi，2024nianyudingkerendepingjunnianlingxiajiangle2.6sui，nianlingduanchuyu22suizhi55suidekerendezhanbizengzhang20%。

xiaofeiquntinianqinghuazhengzaichengweiyoulunlvyouxiaofeideyigefazhanqushi，yuelaiyueduonianqingxiaofeizhedeyongru，weichanyedailaileduoyanghuaxuqiu。

benciguoqingjiaqizhong，bushaoyoulunzhenduikuaisuzengzhangdezhongguonianqingshichangzuochushiyingxingdiaozheng。liru，zaichuanpiaoxiaoshouwai，youlunyinglizengjiagengduoshoufeicanting、jiubadengfuwuye，yisou10wandunjideyoulunkeyishezhiyou10—15gejiuba，huozhejianshaojiubashuliang，batengchudedifangrangjimianshuidian，weinianqingrentigonggengduoxiaofeichangjing。

zhengfuyezhengzaidalituidongyoulunfazhan。zaijinniandi10jiezhongrihanlvyoubuzhanghuiyishang，zhongrihanyuedingdao2030nian，jiangsanguojiandeyoukehufangzengjiadao4000wanrenci，sanfangxieshangyizhi，tongyicujinhuifuyinyiqingerweisuodehangkongheyoulunlvyouyewu。

jinnian8yue，guowuyuanzhenduifuwuyeshoucifabuwenjian——《guanyucujinfuwuxiaofeigaozhiliangfazhandeyijian》，zhichuyaotuichuduozhongleixingteselvyouchanpin，guliyoulunyoutingdengxinyetaifazhan。

tongyue，guangzhouzhengfuyeyinfaxiangguanwenjian，guliyoulungongsikaifacengjifengfu、tesexianmingdeyoulunlvyouchanpintixi，zhichiyoulunchanyechuangxinfazhan，guliyoulunmugangkaifang，bingkaifagengduohangxian。

sanyagengshiyongzhenjinbaiyintuidongchanyefazhan。juzhengcewenjian，youlundunweizai4wandunjiyixiademeigehangcibutie5wanyuan，4wandunyishangmeihangcibutie10wanyuan。youlungongsinianduxiaoshouchuanpiaochaoguo10000rende，an80yuan/renyuyijiangli；nianduxiaoshouchuanpiaochaoguo30000rende，an100yuan/renyuyijiangli。

julejie，zaiweilaizhongguoguihuajianzao100sou10wandunjiyishangdedaxingyoulun，chengzaigengduoguonei、guojiyoukedelvyoudujia、shangwukaochadexuqiu。

国际邮轮纷纷奔赴中国市场

2023nian，quanqiusandayoulunjituan——jianianhua、huangjiajialebiyijinuoweiyoulun，zhengtizhaiwushuipingxiajiangle7%。guojijigourenwei，2024nian，quanqiuyoulunyechengxianwendingfusuqushi。huangjiajialebiyuqi，2024nianshouyiyouwangbi2019nianzengzhang5.5%。

shujutongjiwangzhanstatistarenwei，2024nianquanqiuyoulunyeshouyiyujijiangchaoguo300yimeiyuan，2024—2028nianjian，xingyenianshouyizengsujiangdadao5%yishang。

dan10yuechu，youlungushisihuyijiuchengya。

2024nian10yue1ri，jianianhuayoulunchengjiaoewei8.12yimeiyuan，zaidangrimeiguzhongpaidi78ming，chengjiaoejiaoshangrijianshao34.75%，dangrichengjiaoliangwei4515.43wan。

jianianhuayoulungongsiyu1972nianzaibanamachengli，zaiyoulunxingyezhong，qishicaiwushilizuiqiangdegongsizhiyi，jushuotamenzaiyoujin45％dequanqiuyoulunkeren。

nuoweiyoulunchengjiaoewei2.82yimeiyuan，zaidangrimeiguzhongpaidi280ming，chengjiaoejiaoshangrizengjia6.37%，dangrichengjiaoliangwei1415.04wan。

nuoweiyoulunchengliyu2011nian，jingyingnuoweiyoulunhangxian、dayangzhouyoulunhelijingqihaiyoulundengpinpai，tigongqianwangquanqiumudedidexingcheng，baokuoouzhou、yazhou、dayangzhou、nanmeizhou、beimeizhou、feizhoudengremenlvyoudi。

huangjiajialebiyoulunchengjiaoewei3.54yimeiyuan，zaidangrimeiguzhongpaidi223ming，chengjiaoejiaoshangrijianshao14.28%，dangrichengjiaoliangwei204.52wan。gaiyoulunqiyechengliyu1968nian，shishijiedierdayoulungongsi，yongyouhejingyingsangequanqiuyoulunpinpai：huangjiajialebiguoji，mingrenyoulunheazamarajulebuyoulun。

weiletizhenyeji，guojiyoulunfenfenbenfuzhongguoshichang。ouzhoulvyouweiyuanhuizhongguofenqufuzhuxiwuzhaohongzaishichangdiaoyanzhongfaxian，zai2023nian，zhongguochengweileouzhouyoulundierdazhangxiankeyuanshichang。

guoqingjiaqiqianyitian，weijingyoulunzaishanghaituichuouzhouhelunhangji，fugaiouzhou11guo42gemudedide13tiaoouzhouhangxian，yipiaonanqiu。

julejie，2023nian，weijingyoulunjiedailejin65wanminglvke，zongshouruchao47yimeiyuan，muqianchuanduiyongyou80yusouhelun、10souhailunhe2soutanxianyoulun。

jiuzaijinnian9yue6ri，“yazhouqijian”mscrongyaohaoshilishanghaimugang，dazaibaokuo1000yumingwaijilvkezaineideyue4500mingbinkeqianwangdongjing。tongri，mscdizhonghaiyoulunxuanbu2025nianzhongguodalubushujihua。

10yue1ri，“mengxianghao”he“aida·dizhonghaihao”youlunyedidatianjinguojiyoulunmugang，zheishiji2024nian4yuehou，“shuangluntongkao”zaixiantianjin。

zaiguojiyoulunzhongxinqingxiezhiji，zhongguoyinggairuhezhuazhu“huangjinshijian”？

zaiyeneirenshikanlai，youlunchanpindeshejibujinyaoyingheduoyuanhuarenqundexuqiu，gengyingzhuzhongyudengluchengshideteselvyouchanpinxingchengwufengxianjie。tongshi，jujiaonianqingxiaofeiqunti，peiyuchuyigepangdaqiexiaofeipincixiangduijiaogaodekehuqunti。

ciwai，yeyouzhuanjiazhichu，zhengfuyaozaichangtongwuzigongyingbuji、tongguanbianlihuacuoshidengfangmianzuochuguiding，zhelidatongkaogangbujihuanjiedudian。

suizhechanyedechengshu，xiangxinbujiudejianglai，huiyouyuelaiyueduodagongrenchengzheyouluntiyanxindechuyoufangshi。