文｜24潮 

zaichanyegongxushihengyujiagechixuchongjixia，quanqiulikuangjianghuyebukebimiandechuxianledatuichaojixiang。

shouxiankanyizushuju：jubaichuanyingfushuju，2024niandi38zhou(2024.09.14-2024.09.20)guoneidianchijitansuanli(99.5%)shichangchengjiaojiagequjianzai7.35-7.55wanyuan/dun，shichangjunjia7.45wanyuan/dun，jiaoshangyizhoujiagechiping，danjiaoquniantongqiyuexiajiangle59.20%，jiaonianchuyuexiajiangle23.12%。

lingju24chaochanyeyanjiuyuan(ttir)tongji，2024nianshangbannian13jiashangshigongside “lichanpin” xiangguanyewushouruhejiwei286.90yiyuan，tongbixiajiangle56.88%，zhengti “lichanpin” maolilvwei24.27%，tongbixiajiangle28.65gebaifendian，jibianshilikuangshuangxiongganfengyutianqiliyeyeshuangshuangjujiang，xiangjianxiabiao：

lingwai，zonghesmm、baichuanyingfu，huabaozhengquandengdisanfangjigoutongji，likuangqiyeshouzhongtansuanlikucun24q2gaoda8.28wandun，jiao24q1dafuhuanbishangzhang52.99%；2024nian6yue、7yue、8yuetansuanlikaigonglvfenbiewei63.71%、49.66%he47.42%，chengxianmingxiandexiajiangqushi。（zhu：kaigonglvweiyugushuju）

zaizheiyangdechanyequshixia，tingchan/jianchanchaoyijingxijuanquanqiulikuangjianghu。

qizhonghaiwaishichangzhuyaojianlianglaizinanmeiyanhutilixiangmuyijigaochengbenlikuangxiangmu，rucore lithiumqixiafinnisslixiangmuzhengshiguanting，arcadium lithiumgongsijihuaguantingaozhoumt cattlinlikuangbingdafufanghuannanmeiyanhuqudekuozhangjihua。

guonei，ningdeshidaizai9yue10rijuedingzantingqizaijiangxideliyunmuyewu，ruiyinciqianfenxizhichu，ningdeshidailiyewudexianjinchengbendayueshimeidun8.9wanyuan（hanshui），genjujigoushuju，cong2024nian7yuezhongxunkaishi，tansuanlidexianhuojiagejiuyizhizainingdeshidaidechengbenxianzhixia。zailiyewulianxukuilelianggeyue，jiashanglijiahaizaichengyaxiadiedebeijingxia，ningdeshidaizantingjiangxideliyewujiangdaozhizhongguotansuanliyuechanliangjianshao8%，xiangdangyumeiyuejianshao5000-6000 duntansuanlidangliang(lce)。

9yue11rijiulingliyeyefabutongzhi，kongguzigongsigongsijiangxichunyouliyeyouxiangongsi（kuangshan）jinxingweiqi15ridetingchanjianxiugongzuo，quanzizigongsiyifengjiuyuliyeyouxiangongsi（xuankuangchang）zeshi10tian。jiulingliyetingchanjianxiuyujiyingxiangtansuanlichanliang1500dundangliang。

genjuwukuangzhengquantongji，likuangqiye24q2goumaigudingzichan、wuxingzichanjiqitazhangqizichanzhifuxianjingongji69.8yiyuan，tongbixiajiang17.3%。

yixilieshujudouzaizuozheng，quanqiulikuangyizhengshijinrushendudiaozhengqi。

huikanshangyilunlikuangzhouqi，2019nian7yuelijiadiepo7wanyuan/dun ，jinrushendudiaozhengjieduan，dao2020niannianchuxiayoudonglidianchixuqiubaofa，2020nian12yueshangzhangtupo5wanyuan/dun，zhenggeguochenglishiyue17geyue，suihoujikaishikuaisushangzhang。zaiciqijian，dalianghexinkuangshanjunjinglilediaozheng，baokuochengbenjiaodidegreenbushes、sqm/alb-atacama 、cauchari-olarozyechuxianxiangmuyanqi、xiaofujianchanguocheng。

ruguoconggengzhangdezhouqiguancha，guoqushinianlijiadeyanjinlicheng，qijianlijingduolun “niuxiong” zhouqidexili，meiyilunzhouqibianhuadouduichanyegejuchanshengleshenyuanyingxiang。jiuqiyuanyin，jihudoushiyougongxuguanxijuliebianhuasuodaozhide，jiyidanshichanggongxuguanxifashenggaibian，jiageyidinghuizaixianshizhongkuaisufanying，zheijiushizhouqideliliang。

cilunzhouqidiaozhengjiuqiyuanyinhaishiyouyu2023niankaishilichanyegongxujiegouyijingfashenglegenbenxingzhuanbian，jutieryan，zijindajujinrushangyoujiasuchannengshifangdeqingkuangxia，xiayoudexuqiuquebingweitongbuzengzhang，daozhizhenggelidianchanyeliandouxianruchannengguoshengzhuangtai，jinerxingyeneijuanjiaju，xinnengyuanxingyemianlincankuxipai，suoyijinhuyizhideyuqidaozhishichangduilijiadexiadiehaowudikangli。

lijiadeduanqishichangbodongjihunanyiyuce，danzhangqiqushiyidinghaishiqujueyugongxuguanxidebianhua。benwenzhizaitongguoduiweilaigongxushujudezhengliyufenxi，yuduzhepengyoutantao “lijiajinyibuxiadiekongjianjixiayilunniushiqidian” zheiyiwenti，yizaipaozhuanyinyu，jingongcankao，yehuanyingduzhepengyouyuyibuchong、zhizheng，shenzhipiping。

根据安泰科的数据，2023年全球锂资源开发量约105万吨LCE（碳酸锂当量，同下），同比增加40%。其中澳zhouchanliangwei38wandunlce（zhanbi36.2%），nanmeiyanhuchanliang26wandunlce（zhanbi24.8%），zhongguochanliang23wandunlce（zhanbi21.9%），feizhouchanliang5wandunlce（zhanbi4.7%）。

ciqianyixiegaochengbenaozhoukuangshanyixuanbujianchan，genjuantaikedetongji，finniss、greenbushes、cattlin、wodginadengxiangmuchanliangruqixiahua，aodaliyaq1zhengtihuanbichanliangyuexiahua12.3%。shangbannianaokuangjianchanzhiyuedezhuyaoshixiaobufengaochengbenchanneng，jiangbenzengxiaojiangchengweiaokuangzhuyaofangxiang，bingweiduimuqiangongjiguoshengdejumianchanshengtaiduoyingxiang。

danyuzhixiangfandeshi，feizhoukuangtouchanjindubijiaoleguan，shangbanniandabufenzhongzikuangshanzaijinbabuweiheniriliyadexiangmushunlituijin，huayouguye、zhongkuangziyuan、shengxinlinengdengziyouhaiwaijingkuangziyuanzhubufayunhuiguoneigongchang， yuedujinkouliangyue10wandun。

genjuantaikedeshuju，2024nianfeizhoulijingkuangchanliangjiangtupo100wandun，zhehetansuanlidangliang16wandunzuoyou，2025nianlijingkuangchanlianghuojiangdadao200wandunyishang，zhehetansuanlidangliangjin30wandun。feizhouyijingchaoyuebaxi，chengweijiaodaliyayihouwoguodierdalihuishijinkoulaiyuan。

ciwai，genjuwukuangzhengquanyanjiusuodetongji，2024-2026nianyujiquanqiuxinzengliziyuanchanneng104.19wandunlce，zhuyaoyizhongguo、agentingyanhuweizhu：24-26nianagentingjizhongguodengdichengbendeyanhuziyuanzhujiantouchan。

shishishang，24niannanmeiyanhuchannengzhengzaijiasutoufang，sqmnianneichannengyouwangtishengzhi24wandun，quannianshengchanzhiyin21-22wandun，yujirengjianggongxiannanmeidanxiangmuzuidazengliang；erganfengliyedecauchari-olarozyanhuyijingtouchan，nianzhonghoutansuanlichannengyouwangtishengzhi4wandun，quannianchanliangmubiao2-2.5wandun。

muqianchanliangzuidadeyijiushialbhesqmzaizhilideatacama（atakama）yanhu，danzenglianggengduodeshilaiziyuagenting，baokuoganfengliye、zijinkuangye、arcadium（akadimu）、aihemandengzaineideqiyedouzaiagentingyoubuju，qiejizhongzai2024niantouchan，jiangdailaijiaodadezengliang。agentingsigexinlikuangjiangzai2024xiabannianluxutouchan，zheijiangshiagentingdelinianchannengdafuzengjia79%，dadao20.2wandun。

genjuantaikedetongji，2023nianzhiliheagentingfenbiechanchu23.3he4.5wandunlce，yuji2024nianfenbiechanchu25he10.4wandunlce，tongbizengzhang7%he131%。

jinri，meiguotudiguanliju(blm)xuanbu，yijingweixinxinglipengshengchanshangioneer(asx: inr)weiyuneihuadazhoude rhyolite ridgelikuangxiangmusaochulezuihoudejianguanzhangaizhiyi，zheiyijinzhanbiaozhizhegailikuangxiangmujijiangjinrushizhixingkaifajieduan。rhyolite ridgelikuangxiangmuweiyulasiweijiasiyibeiyue225yingli（362gongli）chu，shibeimeizuidadelikuangzhiyi。juioneergongsiciqianpiludeguihua，gaikuangyidanquanmiantouchan，jiangmanzumeinianjin37wanliangdiandongqichededianchishengchanxuyao。

guanguoneishichang，muqianguoneiyanhutilixiangmuyezhengbuduantuijin。xizangkuangyechenggongsiqixiazhabuyeerqitansuanlixiangmuyijingkaishishishengchan，jiangxinzengdianchijitansuanli9600dun/nian，gongyejitansuanli2400dun/nian。ciwai，lankeliyenianchan2wandunlcedechaerhanyanhuxiangmujiangyuxiabannianluxutouchan，yuji2024niangaigongsitansuanlichanliangyue4wandun。genjuantaikedetongji，yuji2024nianguoneiyanhuchanliangyujizengzhi13.5wandunlce，tongbizengzhang18.4%。

zongshangfenxi，zailikuangciluntouzizhouqizhong，jiageshangxingcijidezibenkaizhijiangluxuduixian，bizhefenxirenwei，2024-2025nianjiangshiquanqiulikuang（hanlushui）channengjizhongshifangqi，qizhongnanmei、feizhouyijiguoneidengxinzengxiangmuluxutouchanpapo，rengjianggongxianjiaoduozengliang。tebieshi2023niandegongjizengliangruoyu2022niandideyuqi，zheibufenchannengyejianghouyizhi2024-2025nianshifang。

zaizhongxingyuqixia，antaikeyuji2024nianquanqiuliziyuanzengliang35wandunlce，qirenggaoyudangnianxiaofeizengliang14dunlce，2024nianguoshengliangyuewei25wandunlce。（wenmofulu：quanqiuzhuyaoliziyuanfenbutu）

muqiandonglidianchi（baokuoxinnengyuanqiche、lianglunche）hechunengdianchidayuenengzhandaoliziyuanxiaohaode70%，zheiyeshiweilailiziyuanxuqiuzuidadelianggelingyu，bawozhuzheilianggelingyudexuqiubianhua，jiujihuzhangwoleweilailijiadefangxiangyuqushi。

jiumuqianzhengtigejueryan，donglidianchiduilixuqiudeladongrengranzhanjujueduiweizhi，zaiquanqiuzhuyaoshichangshang，zhongoumeisandaquyudexinnengyuanqichezhanjushichangdejuedabufenbili，zhongguoguoneixiaoliangzhandaoquanqiuxiaoliangde60%yishang，qiciweiouzhouzhanbijin20%，meiguoshichangzhanbiyuewei10%。danweilaixinnengyuanqichezengsufanghuanjihuyishixingyegongshi。

genjusmmshujuxianshi，2024nian1-6yue，oumeishichangjunbujiyuqi，ouzhoushichangxinnengyuanqichexiaoliangwei118.2wanliang，tongbixiahua14%；lingwaigenjuouzhouqichezhizaoshangxiehuitoulu，oumeng8yuefenquandiandongqichexiaoliangtongbixiajiang43.9%，lianxudisigeyuexiajiang，qizhong，oumengzuidadediandongqicheshichangdeguohefaguofenbiexiadie68.8%he33.1%。ciwai，oumeng27gechengyuanguodechadianshidiandongqichezhuceliangxiajiang22.3%。

lingjumeiguoqichegongyexiehuitongjideshujuxianshi，8yuefenmeiguoxinnengyuanqichexiaoshou14.8wanliang，tongbizengzhang9.7%，1-8yuemeiguoxinnengyuanqichexiaoshou104.4wanliang，tongbizengzhang8.4%，zengsujiaoquniantongqichuxiandafuxiahua。

jinyibufenxiyuanyinkeyifaxian，2023nianyilai，ouzhouduoguoshoujinxinnengyuanqichebutiezhengce，diejiayuancailiaozhangjiadengyingxiang，shiqixinnengyuanchedexiaoliangzengsuxianzhufanghuandehexinyuanyinzhiyi；ermeiguobentucheqichixuxuejiandiandongchezhichu，xinchexingyanqixianxiangyanzhong，yedaozhimeiguoshichangzengsupiruan。

zaikanguoneishichang，chenglianhuishujuxianshi，1-8yuexinnengyuanchelingshouzongliangleijida600.9wanliang，tongbizengzhang35.8%。zhidezhuyideshi，7yue、8yuexinnengyuancheshichangshentoulvyitupo50%daguan，qizhong8yuepanshengzhi54%。

wukuangjingjiyanjiuyuanrenwei，2022nianwoguoxinnengyuanqicheshentoulvyijingdadao25.6%，ruguomeiniandoubaochi100%dezengsu，2024nianjiujibenjiangshixian100%shentou；ruguomeinianzengsujiangzhi50%，yejiangyu2026nianshixian100%shentou。gengheliyuxianshidefazhanqushishizengsubuduanxiahua，zengsuxiahuayujiasushentoubingbumaodun。

youqishi，youyudiyuanzhengzhihemaoyibaohudengyuanyin，woguoxinnengyuanqichechukoushouxianxianxiangjiaoweiyanzhong，juzhongguoqichegongyexiehui(caam)koujingshujutongjixianshi，2024nian1-8yue，xinnengyuanqichechukou81.8wanliang，tongbizengzhang12.6%，erquniantongqizengsuyuewei82%。

bansuizheoumeitongguojiazhengguanshuihuojinzhihezuodefangshiduizhongguoqichehedianchichukoushexiazhongzhongzhangai，zunaozhongguoqiyechuhaijingzheng，yujihouxuchukoufangmianrengjiuyouyidingyali。

zuixinxiaoxi，9yue13ri，meiguozhengfufabushengming，quedingjiangyu2024nian9yue27riqizhixingduizhongguokaizhande301guanshuizhengce，dafudushangdiaozhongguochanpindejinkouguanshui，qizhongduidiandongqichejiazhengguanshui100%，xinnengyuanqicheyongdedonglilidianchijiazhengguanshui25%。feidiandongqicheyonglilizidianchijiangyu2026nian1yue1riqizhengshou25%guanshui。

shishishang，buru2024nian，yichangshiwuqianlidedatuichaozhengzaixijuanlidianjianghu。birugenjuchenglianhuideshuju，2020nian-2023niandonglidianchidezhuangchelvyiciwei76%、70%、54%he50%，xiajiangqushifeichangmingxian，youqishijinru2024nian，shangbanniandonglidianchizhuangchelvlishishoucidiepo50%daguanzhi47%。

同时高企不下的库存规模更是在加速动力电池江湖洗牌与博弈进程。根据SMM此前报道，截止2023年12月底，中国动力电芯的库存约为130.4GWh；而中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟则显示，2024年1-7月我国动力电池累计销量为380.3GWh，而我国动lidianchileijizhuangcheliangwei244.9gwh,jinzheiliangzhezhijianjiucunzai135.4gwhdequekou。

lingwaiju “huaerjiejianwen·jianzhiyanjiu” tongji，jinnianqian7geyueleijidedonglidianchikucunyijinggaoda276.9gwh，qizhonglinsuantielidianchiwei199.5gwh，sanyuanlidianchiwei125.6gwh。

muqian（9yue13ri），sanyuanfangxingdonglidianxinjiageyuewei0.46yuan/wh，linsuantielifangxingdonglidianxinjiage0.37yuan/wh，yu6yuedixiangbijunxiajiang0.01yuan/wh。muqianjiageyijingdiepohenersanxianchangshangchengbenxian，henduoqiyekenengaobuguocilunxipaizhouqijihuyishixingyegongshi。

suizhequanqiuduitanpaifangdeguanzhujiaju，yijitanzhonghecelvedebuduanjiaqiang，chuantongdehuashiranliaonengyuantixizhengxunsuxiangyiqingjieheditankezaishengnengyuanweihexindejiegouzhuanxing。zaicidabeijingxia，chunenglingyuzhanxianchuleqiansuoweiyoudezengzhangshitou。chunengchengwei2023nianzengsuzuihaodelingyu，shilixiayoudedierdaxuqiuchanye，zhanbiyue15%。

zongheevtank、yiweijingjiyanjiuyuan、iccxinluozixundengjigoushuju，2024nianshangbannianquanqiuchunengdianchichuhuoliangda130gwh，tongbizengzhang35%，zengsujiao2023niantongqiyuexiajiangle38.4gebaifendian。

2024nianshangbannianchunengdianchidexiahuazhuyaoyuhaiwaishichangdezengsufanghuanxiangguan，ouzhoushichangrengzaixiaohuakucun，meiguoshichangdezhuangjijinduyousuotuichi，qitaxinxingshichangduixuqiudegongxianyouxian，zhengtihaiwaichunengxuqiuyijiudimi。qizhongerjiduouzhouhuyongchunengjinglileqianqiqukucundejieduanhou，xuqiuyousuohuisheng，raner，ouzhoubufendiqurengmianlinbutiezhengcezhubuquxiaohedianjiadimidetiaozhan，yincihuyongchunengshichangzaiquefamingxianlihaozhengcedezhichixia，xuqiubaochixiangduipingwen；meiguozuoweiquanqiudierdashichang，qidianlishichangyijingxiangdangchengshu，yincichunengzhuangjizhuyaoyilaishichangqudong，qunianbeimeichunengshichangshoudaolelianbangzhengfujiaxihemouxiechunengbujian（rubianyaqi）jiaofuzhouqiyanzhangdengyinsudeyingxiang，zengsuyousuofanghuan。

lingjuyanjiujigouevtanklianheyiweijingjiyanjiuyuangongtongfabude《zhongguolilizidianchixingyefazhanbaipishu（2024nian）》xianshi，2023nian，quanqiulilizidianchizongtichuhuoliang1202.6gwh，tongbizengzhang25.6%，zengfuxiangduiyu2022nianyijingchengxiandafuduxiahua。congchuhuojiegoulaikan，2023nian，quanqiuqichedonglidianchi(ev lib)chuhuoliangwei865.2gwh，tongbizengzhang26.5%；chunengdianchi(ess lib)chuhuoliang224.2gwh，tongbizengzhang40.7%。genjulishishujujiashejiachunengdianchizengsuweilailiangnianbaochi40%zengsu，donglidianchibaochi25%zengsu，dao2025niandongliyuchunengdianchichuhuoliangruxia：

rushangbiaosuoshi，2024nian，chunengchuhuodayueweidonglidianchide29%，chunengdekuaisuzengzhangduilixuqiuyouyidingdeladongzuoyong，danduanqirengranwufakuaisudedaidonglixuqiudedafuzengjia。congzhangqidejiaodu，weilaichunengdekuaisuzengzhangjiangshidaidonglixuqiutishengdezhongyaoyinqing，zheiyijieduanwomenhuoxuzai2025nianyihounenggoujiandao。

zongshangsuoshu，2024nianlidianchanyexuqiuzengzhangqushifanghuanyishidagailvshijian。

muqianzaiquanshichangyizhiyuqiguoshengdebeijingxia，womenfenxirenweibufengaochengbenkuangduanchannengchuqingshijiagejiandidebijingzhilu，danmuqianlaikan，daguimodejiantingchanrengweifasheng，lijiademodizhilurengranmanzhang。

smmgongbudeshujuxianshi，congjinnian4yuezhongxunqi，tansuanlizhoudukucunjinrukuaisuleijizhuangtai，5zhi6yuezhouduleiku3000yudun，7yuefenzhouduleiku4000dunyishang。8yuefenleikusuduyousuofanghuan，dandangqianyu13wandundekucunliang，rengjilichanyedailailejiaodadequkuyali。

zongguanchanyefazhanqushiyubianhua，tansuanlidexiafangchengbenbianjieduizhongqijiagebiandong，shenzhiduiyuchanyegejuzhongsudoujuyoubijiaozhongyaodecankaoyiyi。

jutieryan，genjulichengbenjiagequxian，yanhutilidexianjinchengbenzuijujingzhengli，qichengbenchuyuquxiandezuizuoduan，duoshuyanhutiqudechengbenzai3-5wanyuan/dunfanweinei；qici，gaopinzhidelihuishicaikuangdechengbenyuewei4-6wanyuan/dun，jinsuiqihoudeshigaopinzhideliyunmukuang，qichengbendazhizai6-8wanyuan/dun；erfeizhouziyuandecaikuangchengbenxiangduijiaogao，zhuyaoshouzhiyunengyuanheyunshudegaoangfeiyong，yuguzai7-11wanyuan/dunzhijian。jinguandangqianchengbenfanweijiaogao，dansuizhehouxupeitaosheshiwanshanhejiaotongjichusheshidejinyibuwanshan，zheixiechengbenrengyoukenengjinyibujiangdi；xiangduieryan，dipinzhideliyunmuxiangmumianlinzuigaodechengbenyali，qixianjinchengbenchaochule12wanyuan/dun。

muqiantansuanlijiageyijingjichuanfeizhoukuangshanpingjunchengbendezhicheng，shenzhiyijingchujibufenliyunmukuangyuchuantongaozhoukuangshangdechengbenzhicheng。muqianyiaozhoukuangqi23q3-24q1gonggaolaikan，gejiakuangqitongguoyouxiankaifafukuangjiangbenxiaoguoxianzhu，danjinyibujiangbenkongjianbuda，ruolijiachixuxiadie，zexukaolvaokuangnengfoushixianchengbenzhicheng。

zongshangsuoshu，muqianshangyouziyuanduanbingweichuxianmingxiandeshousuo，haiwaiaokuangcengzainianchuxuanbujiangdichanliang，danshimuqianlaikanyejinjinshizhiyuelegaochengbendexiangmu。eryanhuzaichengbenyoushixiabuhuijianchan，yitihuashengchanqiyejuliyingkuipinghengxianrengyouyiduanjuli，muqianlaikanwaicaikuanghedipinweikuangtiliqiyechengbendaoguayanzhongjiangzhubutingchan，danduigongyingguimoyingxiangyouxian。

juheheqihuoyuce，（2024nian）quannianligongyingliangyucecong128.9wandunxiaxiuzhi118.7wandun，guoshengliangyucecong14.7wandunxiaxiuzhi7.3wandun，jinguangongyingzengliangyucexiaxiu，danyujigongjishifangdeguanxingjiangshide2025-2026nianquanqiuligongyingguoshengjumiannanyihuanjie。

suoyiduanqilaikan，tansuanli9yuejiangyanxugongyingguoshengdegeju，ergaoqidekucunyoujiangduixianhuoshichangchanshengjiaodayali，fanyinggongxuguoshengdemaodun，zhengtiqushirengzaizhendangxundideguochengzhong。

zhongzhangqilaikan，womenyujibenlunmodizhiluhuijiaoweimanzhang，gaochengbenxiangmuzhubuchuqingrengxushijian，suizhexuqiudehuifu，tebieshiweilairuguochunenglingyukuaisuzengzhangladonglixuqiudeshifang，shigongxupinghengdadaoxindeguaidian，lijiacaiyoukenengqiwenshangzhang，womenyujilijiaxiayilunshangxingzhouqiyoukenengzai2025nianyihouchuxian。

fu：quanqiuzhuyaoliziyuanfenbutu

（zhu：bufenxinxikenengfashengbianhua，huanyingduzhepengyoubuchong、xiuzheng）