文｜白马商评

chenjixujiudemianbanxingyepuchubaiyishougouan，zheicidezhujiaofenbieshilidongshenghuixiadetclkejihehanguochangshanglg。

9yuedi，tclkejifabugonggao，gongsitongguokongguzigongsitclhuaxingshougoushougouhanguochangshanglgzaizhongguoyunyingdelejinxianshi（zhongguo）youxiangongsi80%guquanjilejinxianshi（guangzhou）youxiangongsi100%guquan，jiaoyijiagewei108yiyuan。

lejinxianshi（zhongguo）youxiangongsishilg displaysheliyuzhongguode8.5daidaxingyejingmianbanchang，zhuyaochanpinweidianshijishangxiandachicunyejingmianbanchanpin，shejiyuechannengwei180qianpiandaban；lejinxianshi（guangzhou）youxiangongsiweimozugongchang，zhuyaochanpinweiyejingxianshimozu，shejiyuechannengwei230wantai。

jianyanzhi，tclkejiyi108yiyuandedaijiaxinzengleyijiadachicunlcdmianbanchangheyijiaxianshimozugongchang。

jinnianlai，lcdyejingxianshixingyezongtichengxianchu“zhongjinhantui”detaishi。cengjingzhanjuyoushidehanxi、rixichangshangzhubutuichulcdshichang，daluhetaiwanqiyechengweixingyezhudao，qizhongdaluchangshangdeshichangfeneyaoyaolingxian。

tongguocicishougou，huaxingguangdiandechannengjinyibuxianglingyijiaxianshijutoujingdongfangjiejin，mianbanxingye“shuangxiong”gejudeyigonggu。

华星光电异军突起

tclsherumianbanxingyebusuanzao。

2009nian，tcljituanlianheshenzhenshizhengfuchenglihuaxingguangdian，kaishiguihuajianshezhongguodalushoutiao8.5daiyejingmianbanchanxian，huaxingguangdiandezhuyaobandilaizitaiwandiqudemianbandachang。

tcljuexinjinruxianshixingyeyouqineizaidechanyeluoji。zaijiadianxingyeyouyigexianxiang，heidianjutoudemaolilvyuanyuandiyubaidianjutou，yuanyinzaiyuduichanyeliandeguanjianhuanjiezhangkonglidubuyiyang。

biru，kongdiao、bingxiangdehexinlingbujianyasuojizhongguoqiyezaojiunenggouzijishengchanzhizao，bingqiebaidiandachangjibendouyouzijidepeitaoqiye；erheidianqiyedexinpian、pingmuzewangwangxuyaoxiangwaibucaigou，zheijiudaozhizaizhinengdianshichengweizhuliuchanpinzhiqian，henduoheidianqiyebeilijieweizuzhuangqiye，lirunweibo。

baidiandehexinlingbujianzaoyiguochanhuadeshihou，“quexinshaoping”yidukunraozhongguodianshixingye。youyuqueshaohuayuquan，zhongguotaiwan、hanguomianbandachangjiechengjiagetongmeng，hongtaijiage，daludianshiqiyesunshicanzhong。

2008nianjinrongweijishiqi，dalushangwubuzhaoji“mianbancaigoutuan”futaicaigou40yimeiyuandemianban，dantaiwanmianbanchangshangquezaicilianhesanxinghelghongtaijiage，bamianbanyouxianchushoujisanxinghelg，zaigongtongjiajiamaijidaludecaidianqiye，zheirangdangniandalucaidianqiyedemianbanchengbenzengjiale40%。

huaxingguangdianzhengshizaizheiyangdebeijingxiachenglide。jingguo10yuniandefazhan，huaxingguangdianmuqianyijingyongyou9tiaomianbanchanxian，t1、t2、t6、t7、t10chanxianzhuyaofuzedachicunmianbanshengchan，t3、t4、t5chanxianjujiaozhongxiaochicunherouxingmianban，t9chanxianzejianguzhongchicunheshangyexianshimianban；lingwai，huaxingguangdianguangzhou8.5daiyinshuaoledchanxiant8rengzaijianshezhong，guihua2024nianliangchan。

ruguosuanshangcicishougoudelgguangzhouchang，huaxingguangdiandemianbanchanxianzongshujiangdadao11tiao。

luotukejishujuxianshi，yejingdianshimianbanshichang，2023nianzhongguodaluximianbanchangshanghejishichangfeneda68.7%，jiao2022niande66.9%shangshengle1.8gebaifendian，rihanxizesuizhechanxiandezhubutuichu，shichangfenecong2022niande15.4%jinyibuxiajiangzhi2023niande10.8%。

zhongguodaluyonglejishiniandeshijianzhubuzhangwolemianbanchanyedehuayuquan。qizhong，huaxingguangdianshichengzhangzuikuaidegongsi。

erjibianzhongguodaluyijingchengweiquanqiuxianshimianbandezhuyaogongyingdi，huaxingguangdianrengweitingxiakuozhangjiaobu。guoqusannian，huaxingguangdiangongxianlezuiduodechannengzengliang。2020-2023nian，huaxingguangdianxinzeng4tiaochanxian，yishejichannengjisuan，xinzeng36wanpian/yue。

2023niantclkejibandaotixianshiyewushouruwei836.55yiyuan，jiao2020nianzengzhang78.88%；2023nianxiaoshouxianshimianban2910wanpingfangmi，jiao2020nianzengzhang82.27%。

lingyijiamianbanjutoujingdongfang，2023nianxianshiqijianyewujiao3nianqianzengzhang11.43%；2023nianmianbanxiaoshouliangjiao3nianqianzengzhang40.87%。

huaxingguangdiandezengsumingxiankuaiyujingdongfang，chanshengdejieguoshihuaxingguangdiandechannengdafujiejinjingdongfang，huaxingguangdian2020nianmianbanxiaoshouliangjinweijingdongfangde51.82%，3nianhoude2023nianzedadaolehouzhede67.05%。

shujuxianshi，2023niantclhuaxingdianshimianbanchuhuoshizhanlvquanqiudier，55cunhe75cundianshimianbanshizhanlvquanqiudiyi。tongshi，tclhuaxingltpsbidianshizhandier，ltpspingbanshizhandiyi；mntshizhanlvquanqiudisan，qizhongdianjingshizhanlvquanqiudiyi。

keyishuo，guoqu15nian，huaxingguangdianshiquanqiuxianshixingyezuidadebianliang。huaxingguangdianchannengkuozhangdaolushang，chulezijianchanxianwai，zhuazhurihantuichudejiyubinggouduifangchannengyeshizhongyaofangshi。

2020nian，tclkejiyiyue10.8yimeiyuanduijiahuodesuzhousanxingdianziyejingxianshikejiyouxiangongsi60%deguquanyijisuzhousanxingxianshiyouxiangongsi100%deguquan，duisuzhousanxingmianbanchangdeguquanyouyuanlaide10%tishengzhi70%。

tongnian，tclkejiyouxuanbuxiangribenxianshimianbangongsijoledtouzi300yiriyuan。

4nianhoudejintian，tclzaicidashoubishougoulgzaihuagongchang。keyishuo，zheiyilunrihanmianbanchannengtuichu，huaxingguangdianshizuidadeshouyizhe。

李东生的资本棋盘

shijishang，tcldefazhanzhuangda，zibenshinenggongbukemei。

congzaoqideguanlicengmbo，lidongshengchenggongnadaotcldekongzhiquan；daoshougouguojicaidianjutou，chenggongjinjunhaiwaishichang；zaidaocongtianjinguozishouzhongshougouyiguangfujiguicailiaoweizhuyedezhonghuan，babandaotiyewu“zhuang”jinagushangshigongsizhuti……tcldemeiyibukuayuedoubansuizhezibenyunzuo。

2018nian，tcljinxinglegongsilishishangzuizhongyaodeyicibiange，kaizhanlecongduoyuanhuazhuanweizhuanyehuajingyingdezhanlvezhongzu，mingquelejujiaoyugaokeji、zibenmiji、zhangzhouqidekejichanyefazhancelve。

qizhong，yigeguanjiandongzuoshitcljituanyi47.6yiyuandejiagejiangzhongduanyewudabaochushoujitclshiyekonggu（guangdong）youxiangongsi，baoliubandaotixianshihecailiaoyewu、chanyejinronghetouzijichuangtouyewu。

2020nian，tclcongtianjinguozishouzhongnaxiazhonghuandekongzhiquan，jinjunxinnengyuanguangfujiqitaguicailiaolingyu。ciwai，tcljituanzhengshigengmingwei“tclkeji”，qiagushangshigongsidezhutiyewucongjiadianzhongduanbianchenglebandaotixianshi、xinnengyuanguangfujiqitaguicailiaolingyu。

yushougouzhonghuanjihutongyishiqi，tclhaiyituotcljiadianjituanzaierjishichang“baoli”jupaiaomadianqi，houzheshizhongyaodebingxiangshengchanchangshang，lianxuduonianchanlianzhongguobingxiangchukouguanjun。zaiyixilieyunzuozhihou，tclchenggongnadaoaomabingxiangdekongzhiquanbingjianggongsigengmingwei“tclzhijia”。

jubuwanquantongji，lidongshenghuixiadetclximuqianyijingyongyoutclkeji、tclzhonghuan、tclzhijia、tcldianzi、huaxianguangdian5jiashangshigongsi。

qizhong，tclkejizhuyaohangaihuaxingguangdian、zhonghuandebandaotijiguangfuyewu，tclzhijiachengzaibaidianyewu，tcldianzichengzaiheidianyewu，huaxianguangdianzeshihuaxingguangdiandechengyuangongsi，zhuyaocongshibaokuoyejingxianshiqimozujibomojingtiguanyejingxianshipingdengpingbanxianshichanpindezhizaoyuxiaoshou。

纵横捭阖下亦有隐忧

jingguo2018nianhoudeyixiliezibenyunzuo，tcldejingyingjiagougengjiaqingxi，xiangguandongzuoqueshiqidaolepanhuozichandezuoyong。

danshi，jinnianlaidezibenyunzuoyebingfeiyifanfengshun。

tcljuetouzijoledjinjin3nian，houzhejiushenqingqidongpochanbaohu，bingguanbiliangjiagongchang，jieguyue280mingyuangong。2022、2023nian，tclkejilianxuduijoledjitizhangqiguquantouzijianzhizhunbei，muqiangongjitile4.38yiyuandejianzhizhunbei。

tclzhonghuanjinnianlaidejingyingqingkuangyibuleguan。tclruzhuhou，zhonghuangongsijinglile2niandegaosuzengzhang，2023niangongsiyingyeshouru、guimujinglirunshuangshuangxiahua。jinnianshangbannian，tclzhonghuanshixianyingyeshouru162.13yiyuan，tongbixiahua53.54%；shangbannianguimujingkuisun30.64yiyuan，youyingzhuankui。

muqian，tclkejidezichanfuzhailvwei63.84%，jiaojingdongfanggaochu11gebaifendian。ciwai，muqiantclkejishangyou105yiyuandeshangyu“pa”zaizhangshang，zheixieshangyuzhuyaoweiguowangyijiashougousuoxingcheng。

zuijin3nianduo，tclkejidezichanjianzhisunshichixukuoda，2023nianjitile48.14yiyuan，weijin20nianxingao；jinnianshangbannianjiti20.6yiyuanzichanjianzhisunshi，lvediyuquniantongqi。

buguo，jiezhijinnian6yuedi，tclkejizhangshangyou190duoyiyuanxianjin，jiashangliudongxingjiaoqiangdejiaoyixingjinrongzichan，suishikedongyongdexianjinjiejin450yiyuan。

mianbanxingyechengxiandianxingdezhouqitexing，suizhechannengzhubuxiangjingdongfang、huaxingguangdiandengtoubuqiyejizhonghou，zhouqixinglveyoujianruo。wanlianzhengquandeyanjiurenwei，2023nianyilai，mianbandachangdejingyinglinianyouzhiqiande“shengchandaoxiang、manchanmanxiao”zhuanxiang“shichangdaoxiang、yixiaodingchan”，zaizhongduanshichangxuqiubingbuwangshengdejibenmianxia，dachicundianshidemianbanjiagewenzhongyousheng，bodonglvdafubianxiao，qudongmianbanxingyezhouqixingjianruo。

zongtieryan，dangxiarengchuyulcdmianbandexiaxingzhouqi。nizhouqitouziyijingbeihanguobandaotichanyehezhongguoxianshichanyezhengmingshichenggongdecelve，guoqu10nianzhengshibuxidaijiachixujiadachannengtourucaiyoulehuaxingguangdiandeyijuntuqi。

erzaizhenggeheidianxingye，tcltongguoxiangchanyelianshangyoushentoubaochileqiangdadejingzhengli，bufenchuantongheidianjutoudiaoduidetongshi，tclrengranqudelebucuodechengji。genjucounterpoint researchhedscclianhefabudequanqiudianshizhuizongbaogao，2024niandierjiduquanqiudianshichuhuoliangfangmian，tclyi11%deshichangfeneweijudier‌，jinciyusanxing。

tclzaiquanqiudianshishichangzhanjuyixizhidi，libukaihuaxingguangdiandezhuli。tongguoshougoulgzaihuamianbanchanneng，huaxingguangdiandechannengguimojinyibukuoda，lidongshengdenizhouqijingyinglinianhaizaijixushijian。