wen | lanshayouhuo chenshifeng

编辑 | 卢旭成

“guoneidechayinjiamengshangshuliangxianzaiyijingchuyugaofeng，jinnianjindejiamengshang，80%huibenwuwangle。”yiweitoubushangyezhubozaishejiaopingtaishangzheiyangshuo。zheijuhuadezhujiaoshi：qianduanshijian“shuyishaoxiancaodaobimendiantaiduoershoushebeizhixiao”chongshangweiboresoudiyi。cengjingyishaoxiancaochanpinzhuchengde“shuyishaoxiancao”zaijiamengkuozhangdejiliejingzhengzhongzaoyulecuozhe，beipuchudaguimodedianpuguanbixianxiang，shenzhiqianliandaoleershoushebeijingxiaoshang，“youhuishoushangjiangliuqiwanhuishoudeshijitaoshebeidangfeitiemaile2000yuan。”

zhaimencanyanshujuxianshi，jiezhi10yue14ri，shuyishaoxiancaozaiyingmendianshuwei5585jia，yu2021niancengxuanbudechaoguo7000jiamendianshuliangxiangbi，dafujianshaole1000duojia。shuyishaoxiancaodafudubidian，shoudangqichongdeshijiamengshangzaoyujudadejingjisunshi。

buzhishuyishaoxiancao，lanshaxiaofeifaxian，2024nianyilai，xinchayin、canyin、kafei、shengxianlingshoudengduogeyikaojiamengmoshikuozhangdezhimingpinpaidouchuxianlebidianchao。

01 闭店潮汹涌

zaizheixiebidiandexingyezhong，xinchayinyouweituchu。zhiqiancengjingyidutedekougan、jingzhidebaozhuanghuoshichuangxindeyingxiaocelvezaishichangshangzhanjuleyixizhididepinpai，zai2024niandouzaoyulebutongchengdudebidianchao。

zhuyaoyikaojiamengmoshikuozhangde“xinchayindiergu”chabaidao，jinnianshangbanniandeyingshou、jinglidouchuxianlebutongchengdudexiajiang。qizhong，yingshou23.96yiyuan，jiaoquniantongbijianshaole10%；jingdiaozhengjinglirunwei3.95yiyuan，quniantongqiwei5.98yiyuan。

chabaidaoyejibujiayumendianshuliangfanghuanmiqiexiangguan。jubannianbao，jiezhi2024nian6yue30ri，chabaidaoquanguomendianzengzhi8385jia，jiaoquniantongqizengzhangyue20%。erzai2021-2023nian，chabaidaodemendiankuozhangsudufenbiewei25%he22%。2024nianshangbannian，chabaidaoxinkaijiamengmendianshuliangwei826jia，erguanbideshuliangwei245jia。suiranzongtishuliangzengjiale581jia，danguandiaodejiamengdianquexiangdangyuquniantongqide2.5bei（quniantongqiguanbi96jia）。

zaiquanguozuoyong3wanduojiamendiandemixuebingcheng，sihuyeyouxiekangbuzhule。genjudisanfangshujujigou“jihaipinpaijiance”shujuxianshi，jinnianmixuebingchengsuirankaidianyiranxunmeng，90tianxinkaimendian3477jia；danyucitongshi，qiguandianlvyexunsubiaosheng，90tianxinguanmendian3808jia，shoucichuxianguandianshudayukaidianshudeqingkuang。zhideguanzhudeshi，mixuebingchengdebidianlvyijingpanshengzhi5.9%，yijingyuanyuanchaoguomixuebingchengzhaogushuzhongxuanchengde2.37%。

zhudagaoduanrenqundemosuannaiyexianrulebidiandejiongjing。jinnianyilai，mosuannaiguandianshuliangchuxiandafuzengzhang。jinniannianchuzhi6yuechu，mosuannaixinkaidian56jia，guandian142jia，pingjunmeitianbidian0.9jia。ercong2020niandao2023nian，mosuannaifenbieguandian4jia、7jia、4jiahe63jia，gong78jia。zheiyiweizhe，zaijinnianbudaobannianshijianli，mosuannaiguandianshuliangyijingchaoguoleguoqusinianbidiandezonghe。

kafeisaidaodebidianshuliangyezaishangsheng。zhaimencanyanshujuxianshi，jiezhi10yue14ri，quanguokafeimendianzongshuda196530jia，jinyinianxinkaimendianda70316jia，jingzeng27277jia，huanyanzhi，zuijinyinianbidianshuliangda43039jia，meitianguanbishangbaijiamendian，bidianlvchao50%。

jibianshixingyeneidejiaojiaozhe，yeweinengzaizheichangfengbaozhongdushanqishen。biru，taipingyangkafei、lawasakafeidengpinpaiyujinnian3-4yuebingweikaichuxindian，timstianhaokafei、costa coffeejigepinpaisuiyizhizaikaixindian，danmendiancunliangquebushengfanjiang。jinnian，luweisaidaodesanjutouzaimendianshuliangyeyousuoxiajiang。jiezhi2024nianshangbannian，buhangangaotaijihaiwaishichang，jueweishipingongyoumendianshuliang14969jia，jiao2023nianmojianshao981jia。zhouheiyademendianzongshuwei3456jian，xiangbishangniantongqide3706jia，mendianshuliangjianshaole250jia。huangshanghuanggongyou4052jiazhuanmaidian，qizhongzhiyingmendian228jia、jiamengdian3824jia，duibi2023niandi，huangshanghuangdemendianshuliangjianshaole445jia，qizhongzhiyingmendianjianshaole34jia、jiamengdianjianshaole411jia，xiangdangyumeitianguanbi2jiamendian。

jinliangnian，qiandamazheijiamingxingdujiaoshouqiyekuozhangmingxianfanghuan。genjugeoq anapinpaifenxishujuxianshi，jiezhi2024nian7yuediqiandamazaiyingmendianyue3047jia，jinzhule15geshengfen、36zuochengshi。zhidezhuyideshi，ciqian2023nian7yue，qiandamamendianjiuyijingtupo3000jia。zaiguoquyinianshijiannei，qiandamajinxinzengbudao50jiamendian。erzai2020nianzhunbeishangshideqianxi，qiandamayinianshijianjiuxinzengle1000jiamendian，qianhouduibilingrenxixu。

02 “倒霉”的加盟商

duiyupinpaieryan，bidianyiweizhepinpaiyingxianglidexiaojian。erzaimeiyigebidiandebeihou，zeshijiamengshangzaofumengdeposui。

yishangshigongsichabaidaoweili，jiamengshangshigongxianlejuedabufendeyingshou，shiqizhenzhengyiyishangdekehu。cong2023nianyingshoushujulaikan，chabaidaotongguojiamengdianshixiandeyingshouwei56.59yiyuan，qizhongxiaoshouhuopinheshebeidesuodeshouruzhan95%，maolilv31.8%；texuquanshiyongfeihejiamengfeizhan4%，maolilvzegaoda92%。

danjiamengshangquebingfeidouchenggongzhuandaoleqian。yiweiqianchabaidaojiamengshangtoulu：“wokaichabaidaokuilesanshiwan，chabaidaotouzibiqitadechayinpinpaiyaoda，shebeifeiyebiqitapinpaiguibushao。suoyoudewupin，napashiyigedianzicheng，yigedaizidouyaoxianggongsijinhuo。wotongqiyougelaobanweileshengjishikuaiqianwaigouleyigedianzicheng，beidudaofaxianzhihoufalewuqiankuai。”

2023nian，kudilianyingshangzaishejiaopingtaibuyueertongfachulezhikudikafeiguanlicengdegongkaixin，jiekailekudikafeizaixijie、yunying、kuozhang、peixundengfangmiande“zhenxiang”。zaigongkaixinzhong，youlianyingshangtanyan，“congyikaishidemangmuruchang，zhaoshangshuodehuibaolvhehuibenzhouqiyaoyaowuqi，daotieqianpeipao，daocaotaibanzi。yibubumoshilesuoyoujiamengshangdexinrenhenaixin。”youlianyingshangzaiduanduanjigeyuejiukuisunlesansishiwanyuan。

qiandamadejiamengguizecongyikaishijiujiangjiamengshangzhiyubulijingdi。genjuciqianyangshicaijingdebaodao，zuoweijingyingzhe，jinduoshaohuo、maishenmejiabingbuyoujiamengshangkongzhi，congjingyingdediyitiankaishi，“qiandama”pinpaifangjiuguidinglemeitianjinhuodezuidixianliang，shenzhiduixiaoshoujiagejinxingleyangexianzhi，zhiyunxushoujiaxiadiao，yidanjiamengshangbuzunshoujiageguanli，jiuhuibeifakuanshenzhitinghuo。lingyoujiamengshangtoulu，“gangkaishisangeyue，baobenjingying”“jingyingyinianzuoyou，kuisundadao30-40wanyuan，yijingguandianle，zaizoubidianliucheng，guangjiqiandamagongsijiushi34wanyuan”。

zirendaomei，bidianrenshu，jiamengshangzaishejiaopingtaishangde“fenxiang”，yerangxuduoren“tanjiamengsebian”。biruzaihenanxinxiangkaidiandejiamengshangjiaxianshengcengzaixiaohongshushangfenxiangguo：zijizaizheigesanxianchengshidedaxueshangyejiekaileyijianaichadian，huale53wanyuan，qizhongbaokuolezhuanrangfei12wanyuan，fangzuyinian3wanyuan，shebeiqixie10wanyuan，jiamengfei8wanyuanyijipinpaishiyongfei、guanlifei、yajin、zhuangxiufeidengdeng。jingying10geyue，yinhongshuiheyiqingdaobi，kuisun30duowanyuan。

03 加盟失速背后

qianjinian，jiamengmoshichengweipinpaikuozhangdejibenshouduan。bansuizheshuzihuajishudetisheng，shenzhilianyixieyuanbenjiandingzhiyingluxiandepinpaiyejiarujinlai，biruxicha、naixuedecha、zhouheiyadengzhimingtoubupinpai。erzhongduopinpaicaiyongjiamengmoshizhengqiangshichangfenedebeihou，yedeyiyuxionghoudezibenjiachi。birushuyishaoxiancaozai2022niandedaolejueweishipin、qiaqiashipin、tengxun、kemingshipin、guangdakonggudengchanyejijinde6yiyuantouzi。chabaidaoshangshiqian，yinrulelanxinyazhou、zhengxingu、caogenzhiben、zhongjin、fanqiezibendengduojiazhimingtouzijigou，hejirongzijin10yiyuan。qiandamagengshizai2015nian-2019nianlianxuwanchengtianshilundaodlunchao10yirongziguimo……

zaizibenzhulixia，gedapinpaikaishijiasu“dayuejin”，xiwangzaixinchayindengxiangguangainianhuoreshilvxianzhanjuyoulidiwei。yinci，yixiepinpaishezhidejiamengmenjianbingbugao，biruzaiyixianchengshikaiyijiashuyishaoxiancao，tourudezhuangxiufei、shebeifei、yuancailiaofei、guanggaoxuanchuanfei、jiashangzujin、renyuangongzijiqita，yebuguoxuyao15wanyuanzuoyou。

zaidaguimokuozhangdetongshi，yixiepinpaiduiyujiamengshangde“quyubaohu”bingbuguifan。yibanlaishuo，weilebaohujiamengshangdeliyi，pinpaizaizhidingjiamengzhengceshi，douhuijichumingquedejulifanwei，yimianliangjiamendianjuliguojin，fashengzijidazijidexianxiang。biru2008nian，mixuebingchengdequyubaohuzhengcewei1-2gongli，houlaisuoduandao 500mi、100mi，shenzhidaorujinduanduanyitiaojiekaiwujiadiandeqingkuang。zheizhongneibujingzhengbujinyingxianglelaodiandeyingshou，yeshidexindiandeshengcunbiandegengjiakunnan。

gedapinpaidejisukuozhang，rangxinchayindengsaidaode“neijuan”yuelaiyueyanzhong。weilejinyibuqiangzhanshichangfene，xuduopinpaiyaoqiujiamengshang“pindijia”，danzongbudebutieyuelaiyueshao。yiweichabaidaodeqianjiamengshangtanyan，“zongbuyaoqiujiamengshangtiantianzuohuodong，dijiamai，danshizongbububutieyifenqian，zuohuodongdeqiandoushijiamengshangzitaoyaobao。yuancailiao，wuliaojinhuoshibutigongyouhui，danshirangjiamengshangtiantianmeituan，douyin，quanshidijiaqiangke，shuobailejiushizaijiamengshangxiaobaishenshanghaoyangmao。”

youshuyishaoxiancaodejiamengshangtoulu，“jinguanchanpinjiagexiadiaokansinengxiyingengduoxiaofeizhe，danjinhuochengbenbingweisuizhijiangdi，daozhilirunkongjianbeijinyibuyasuo。”jiamengshangmenmianlinzheqiansuoweiyoudejingyingyali，dijiacelvebingweiruyuqibandailaixiaoliangdejizeng，fanerrangbenyiweibodelirungengjiazhuojinjianzhou。

jisukuozhangyekenengdaozhipinpaidegongyingliannengligenbushang。biru，kudikafeizaixunsukuozhangzhi7000jiamendianhou，qigongyinglianhennangenshangbufa，yuanliao、wuliaoquehuowentipinfa，bujinyingxianglexiaofeizhedetiyan，yexueruolepinpaidekoubeihejingzhengli。

youkudikafeilianyingshangzaishejiaopingtaibiaoshi，mendianyudaoleyanzhongdegongyinglianbuwendingwenti，jingchangchuxianyuancailiaoquehuodeqingkuang。tebieshixiangshengyenatie、panpasilandengzhudachanpin，changyinquehuoerwufamanzuchanneng，jinyibudaozhilemendianxiaoliangdexiahua。gailianyingshangbiaoshi，tademendianzaiquehuoqijian，xiaoliangxiajianglejin30%。ciwai，keqiukuaisushangshi，yehuidaluanpinpaifazhandezhengchangguidao，sunhaijiamengshangdeliyi。biruqiandamazuoweitoubushengxianzhuanmaigongsi，pingjiezhe“bumaigeyerou”sloganpingbuqingyun。guanfangshujuxianshi，cong2020nian7yuedao2021nian2yuededuanduan7geyueshijiannei，qiandamamendianshujingzeng1000jia。

youyeneirenshibiaoshi，qiandamashiyizhiyingdianweixuanchuanyangban，zainadaofengxiantouzihou，fengkuangquandikuozhang，wulunqiantaiyingliyufou，jiamengshangbuduanshangjiaodegeleifeiyongquebaohoutaishizhongyoukeguandelirun。50wanjiamengyijiaqiandama，zongbumaoliyue40%yishang，liujijiamengshangdelirunkongjianjiaodi。

2021nian，qiandamabuduanchuanchuchongjishangshidexiaoxi。bishi，yiweiqiandamajiamengshangzaiwangluopingtaitongxinchenshu：“yuexiaoshoue50wan，meiyuekuisunchao1wan！tingshuoqiandamayaoshangshile，zuoweiyigeshenzhendeqiandamadianzhu，woxinlizhenshiwuweijuchen。houtaishujuxianshi，qiansangeyue，wozheijiadianyuexiaoshouezai50wan。danshizuodaoxianzai，wofaxianzijimeitiankuile600yuanzuoyou，yejiushishuo，yigeyueyaokuisun1wanyuan。”

benyingshihezuohuobandejiamengshang，quechengweipinpai“zhengge”dejiucai。zhangciyiwang，bidianlvpanshengyejiubuzuweiqile。