wen | lingjing liumengmeng

编辑 | 陈秋

pinfandeshougouhekuajiejinjunguangfuyechanye，zanzhudianjingbisailaimaigaoduanpingmu，rangzheijialaopaijiadianqiyetclpinpinjinrudazhongshiye，erjinjiniantclzhanxianjiwaijiedexingxiang，yijinghennanzaijiangzheijiagongsikuangdingzai“caidiandawang“zheigejiuminghaoli。

danzheiqichugengduoshiyouyushichangbianle。gengduorenzaidapingmuzhinengshoujishangfufeikandianshijiemu，dianshijiyufashoulengluo，zi2015nianqiquanqiuchuhuolianghexiaoshouliangliannianxiahua。quanqiudianshijishichangchixudimizhijin，zhongguoyebuliwai，jinnianshangbannianzhengjichuhuolianghaichuanglexindi。

maidianshibuzhuanqian，danmaidianshipingmuzhuan。zaozaiwunianqian，tcljituanzhongzu，bolibaokuodianshiji、kongdiaodengjiadianzhixiaoyewu，chenglitclshiye。jinjiezhe，tafuzhengzigongsihuaxingguangdian，zhuyingmianbanshengyi，houlaigaimingjiaotclkeji。yanzhixianxiangpingmujishuhanlianggao，yuanbizuzhuangzhengjizhuanqian，gengliyutigaogongsidezhengtilirunlv。

图：TCL集团2019年拆分为TCL科技和TCL实业

jinqi，tclzaimianbanlingyuyouyoudadongzuo。9yue26riwanjian，tclkejiduiwaigonggaoyigebaiyishougouxiangmu，tclhuaxingquerenniyi108yiyuanzongjiashougoulgxianshiweiyuguangzhoude8.5daiyejingmianbanchanxian（zhuyaochanpinweidianshijishangyongxianshidachicunyejingmianban）yijiyigemozugongchang。

cicishougouyiweizhe，tclzailcddianshimianbanshichangdezhengtifenejiangjinyibutisheng，hangshizailcdmianbanxingyejiagejingzhengyoushi。

jinguanlcdshichangmianlinbao、zhouqixingjiangjiafengxianheyuminiled、microled、oleddengjishudechongji，danmuqiankan，lcdzaidachicundianshipingmushangyiranzhanjuzhudaodiwei。jutongji，jinnianshangbannian，lcddianshideshichangfenerengbaochizai60%yishang，youqishizaizhongdiduanshichang，lcddeyoushigengweimingxian。

tebieshizaidianjingxianshipingshichanglingyu，zhengyinglaiqiansuoweiyoudefazhanjiyu。luotukejidebaogaoxianshi，2024nianshangbannian，zhongguodaludianjingxianshiqixianshangshichangxiaoliangjizeng30%，dadao269wantai，xiaoeyetongbizengzhang10%zhi33yiyuan。

weiletishengqiyejingzhengnengliheduoyuanfazhan，tclshenzhikuajietaruguangfuye。dantclzhanlvezhuanxingzhilu，haixuyaomanzhangkaoyan，guangfuchanyeyeshiyigexuyaodengdaibaofazhouqidechanye。tclzhonghuanshangbannianyejichengya，yingshou162.13yiyuan，tongbixiahua53.54%；guimujingli-30.64yiyuan，tongbixiahua167.53%；guipianchuhuoyue62gw，tongbizengjia18.3%，zongheshizhanlvda23.5%。

tclkejizhichu，2024nianxiabannian，quanqiuguangfuchanyerengchuzhouqidibu，xingyeshichangzhuangkuangfashenggenbenxingbianhua，jingzhengboyijiaju。

weiletuidongxingyejiankangfazhan，gensuilingyiguangfuguipianlongtoulongjilvnengdebufa，8yue27ri，tclzhonghuanfangmianyequanmianshangdiaoguipianbaojia。qizhongng10chanpin1.15yuan/pian、ng12chanpin1.5yuan/pian、ng12rchanpin1.3yuan/pian。

面板仍充满不确定

bansuizhenkongguan（crt）、denglizi（pdp）、yejingping（lcd）、oleddengxianxiangjishugexin，mianbanxingyemeiyilunzhouqichixu3dao4nian。youyumianbanshengchanxianchengbendongzheshangbaiyi，jianshezhouqizhangdashunian，channengshifangzhihou，xiaxingshijianwangwanggengzhang，bingchongmanbuqueding。

图：2006年-2023年，全球液晶屏主流厂商四次周期 来源：东海证券

2021nianxiabannian，huikezhangsha8.6daixianhetclshenzhen11 daixianluxutouchan，yejingxianshijishudemianbanchannengjizhongshifang。danyiqingqijianxianshangbangong、shangkedengchangjingxiacijidexianshiqi、diannaogoumaixuqiuyibeitouzhi。lingwai，pinfanshoudiyuanzhengzhiyinsuyingxiang，haiwaixuqiuzhoujian。yejingmianban（lcd）xingyeyincixianrushuaituizhouqizhijin。

suizhejishujinbuhechannengkuozhang，yejingmianbandeshengchanchengbenbuduanjiangdi，daozhileyejingmianbandeguosheng。weileqiangzhanshichangfenehexiaohuakucun，gedachangshangfenfenjiangjiacuxiao。2022 nianxiabannian，gechicunmianbanshichangshoujiayidudiyuxianjinchengben。

poyulirunyali，sanxing、lg、songxiadengrihanchangshangzhubutuichu lcd channengdejingzheng，bingzhuanxiangtouzixinjishuoleddeshengchanxian。2022nian，sanxingguantinglezuihouyige lcd gaoshidaichanxiantangjing l8-2，zhengshixuangaotuichuyejingmianbanshichang。jinnian8yue，suizhexiapuzaijieshidegongchangyitingzhishengchandianshiyongyejingmianban，ribenguoneidianshiyongyejingmianbandeshengchanjidishuliangbianweiling。

中国厂商则在这一过程中，陆续接收了其LCD产线。2020年苏州三星卖给TCL。今年8月，LG有可能将在广州的工厂卖给TCL。产能趋于稳定。到2025 年，全球仅有两条 LCD 面板产线投产，分别是深天马厦门 8.6 代线和华星光电武汉 6 代线（T5）。国产 LCD 厂商放缓新产线投放，且新增产能投放均以现有产线扩张为主。

xingjiabijixingzhengzaishiyongjiagebianyidezhongguoqiyedeyejingmianban。guoquyinian，jingdongfang、huaxing、huike、qunchuangheyoudafenbieyi26.8%、20.9%、13.6%、10.0%、8.2%deshichangfene（anchuhuomianji）weijuquanqiudachicunlcdmianbanshichangdeqianwuwei。ruotclqixiazigongsihuaxingchenggongshougoulgzaizhongguotoujiandelcdmianbanhemozudeshengchanqiye，zhongguogongsizaiyejingmianbanxingyeshichangzhanyoulvjiangtishengzhi70%zuoyou。

zaidachicunpingmudianshizhong，lcdmianbanrengshizhuliujishu，zhanqunianchuhuoliangdeyibanhaiduo。jiadianchanyefenxishiliubuchenrenwei，gaixiangshougouyouwangrangtclzaichannenghechanliangzhuishangjingdongfang，fahuiguimoyoushi，yingshouzhanshang3000yiyuandexindianfeng。

zixungongsiomdiazuixinshujuxianshi，2024nianshangbannian，yejingdianshimianbanchuhuoliangyu2023nianshangbannianchuhuoshuipingjibenyizhi，danyouyupingjunchicunshangzhang，shangbannianxingyezhengtichuhuomianjitongbizengzhang6%。

yucitongshi，xindexianshijishuyoudaishichangxuqiuyanzheng。zixungongsiomdiatongjixianshi，2022nianquanqiuoledmianbandechuhuojinewei426yimeiyuan，yu10nianqianxiangbijizengzhi6bei。

gaijishumuqianzhuyaoyingyongzaishoujihechexianshang。danoled tvshentoulvnanyitupo，you2020nianyijidude1.3%shangshengzhi2022nianmode3.9%，cihouzai3%-4%zhijianpaihuai。

10yue15ri，jingdongfangjubanrouxingoledqijianxinpinfabuhui，tuichuquanxin2k+ltpoquannenggaoduanpingmu，pingjieshengjidedicsuanfahedihuijiehuamiandexianshijunyundugaishan，huazhidedaotisheng，bingjiangdazaiyuyijiaqijianxiliexinpin。

yisanxing、lgweidaibiaodehanqiyazhugaoshidairouxingoledmianban。jingdongfangqiangshizhuigansanxing。liangjia8.6daioledmianbanchanxianjunjiangzai2026nianliangchan。weixinnuoheshentianmadengzhongguoqiyeyezaijiakuaizhuiganbufa。ertclqixiahuaxingmuqianzhizaiwuhanyongyouyitiao5.5daioledchanxian，bingzaizuijinchengqingzijiameiyouxinjian8daichanxiandejihua。

tclgengduoyazhuzaigaijinxingdelcdjishu——mini led shang。2020nian，weikuodadachicunzhengjimozuhemini ledchanneng，tclkejicengchizi28yiyuanjiangguanlianzichanmaojiaguojishouruhuixia。muqian，tcl（25%）、xiaomi（25%）hehaixin（22%）zhudaoleguoneimini leddianshishichang。

刚集齐空冰洗三大业务

tcljinniancheditunxiazhuyingbingxiangyewudeaomadianqizhihou，jiangqigaimingwei tclzhijia。xingyefenxishiliangzhenpengrenwei，“weilai，tclhuojiangwuhankongdiaogongchangzhuruaomadianqi，zuizhongaomadianqihuichengweinangkuotclbaisejiadianyewudeshangshigongsi。“daoshi，hehaierzhijialeisi，tclzhijiajiangchenggongzhenghebaidianshichangguimozuidadesandayewu：kongdiao、bingxianghexiyiji。

danzhinengjiajuhennanchengweitclbaidianyewuwandaochaochedejihui。tcldianzidezhinengdianshihetongligufendeyinxiangfanerhuishiqizhinengjiajushengtailigengzhongyaodebufen。yigeshichangguimoda，yigedaorurengongzhinengyuyinzhushouhou，nenggouqiangzhanshengtairukou。

raner，ruguochuantongjiadiangongsibushixiangkejigongsiyiyang，touguodicengxitongzhangwozhinengjiajushengtairukou。biru，huaweidehongmengxitong、googledefuchsiaxitong。dengdaoxingyejinhuadaoquanwuzhinengpujihou，tamende“zhinengjiajujiejuefangan”dabaokongdiao、bingxiang、xiyiji，bujinkeyimaijidichankaifashang，hainengmaijikejigongsi。

baidianqiyexiaoliangdazhangdetongshiyeyoukenengzaicilunweibaipaidaigong，huidaoqidian。quanwuzhinengqunianquanzhongguozhuzhaishentoulvzhiyou3.5%。xianjieduan，duibaidianqiyelaishuo，zhinengjiajugengxiangyigechongmankejigandeyingxiaomaidian，rangpinpaizouxianggaoduan，dailaibufenyijia。

kongdiao、bingxiang、xiyiji，zheixiepinleidegongnenghexingnengduoshubijiaoguding，pinpaiyibankaoqudaoheyingxiaoqusheng。erbushixiangdianshijineiyang，suizhexianxiangjishuchixudiedaichanpin，congerzengqiangpinpaidejingzhengli。qudaorengshizhizaohexiaoshoujiadianzheimenshengyidehexinbilei。

congzhuanmaidiandaodamaichang，zaicongdamaichangdaoxianshangdianshang，duiqudaobianhuafanyinggengminruidegongsi，nenggouqiangzhangengduoshichangfene。jinnianbannianbao，tclshiyeyingshou735.2yiyuan，tongbizengzhang28.5%；maolirun136.8yiyuan，tongbizengzhang17%；jinglirun23yiyuan，tongbizengtisheng45.7%。jinglirunlvwei3%。

chuhaigengzaodetcldaoshigengyoukenengjiezhuzaihaiwaimaidianshijileijidejingyanheyoushilaimaikongdiao、bingxianghexiyiji。qunian，haiwaishichangshouruzhantclshiyede59.7%。zheiyibiligaoyuhaierzhijia（47.1%）、meide（43.8%）hegeli（35.1%）。

weijiasuxianglingxianzhihuijiadianqiyemaijin，10yue12ri，tclzhijiafabugonggao，xuanbupengpanchurendiliujiedongshihuidongshizhang。yiaomabingxiang、tclbingxiweizhuyedetclzhijia，zaijinnianshangbannianyingshouwei89.6yiyuan，tongbizengzhang24.7%。

家电企业扎堆投新能源

xunqiudiertiaozengzhangquxianyehao，duichongzhuyingyewuxiaxingyeba，tclhejiadiansandagongsibuyueertongditouziguangfuchunengxingye。

2016nianqi，jiadianxiaxiangdezhengcelihaoxia，haierliyongzijiaderirishunwuliuhenahuixinnengyuan，zainongcunpujitaiyangnengfadian。meidezai2020nianhe2022nianfenbiebinggouhekangxinnenghekeludianzihou，zhengheleyitaoguangchu、rebeng、chudian、churexietongdejuejiefangan，roujinlezhinenglouyuyewu。

geli2021nian18yishougouyinlongxinnengyuan，gengminggelitai，yabaopianmendetaisuanlidianchijishu。youyugaijishushangweipuji，gelitairengzaikuisunzhong。hegelileisi，tclkeji2020nian109yiyuanshougouzhonghuankanshangquhezhuyingyewumeishenmeguanxi，shougouhouyebaochixiangduidulidiyunyong。tagengxiangyicidashoubicaiwutouzi，danjinnianyejichengya。

tclzhonghuanjinnianshangbannianyejichengya，erzheijiashengchanguangfufucaiguipiandegongsigangzaiqunianniandichaoyueduishoulongjilvnengzuoshangtoubajiaoyi。caibaozhong，guanlicengjiangkuiqianguijiuyusandayuanyin：guipianjiagezhan，chidaodedianchihezujianxiangmutouru，yijicanguguangfugongsimaxeonyexianrukuisun。danguigenjiedihaishiyunyingcelvetaijijin。

yanxia，guangfuyepubianrenwei，jingguichanyeyijingzhengbudaoshenmeqian，weibaozhulirun，bujiedijiadan、jiangdikaigonglvgengbaoxian。qijingzhengduishoulongjilvnengzhengshizheimezuode，kuisungengduoyuanzichanyelianxiayoudeguangfuzujianyewu。

tclzhonghuanquefanqidaoerxingzhi。pingjiegengdideshengchanchengben，tatongguogaokaigonglv，jinyibuyadiguipianjiage，chixiagengduoshichangfene。jieguojinnianshangbannian，tclzhonghuanduohui6%shichangfene，shengzhi30%，queyouyuguipiandingjiaguodi，kuisunchao30yiyuan。

chuzaichanyelianzhongyoudeguipianchangdajiagezhan，liruntanbo，huixiangwangshangxiayouhuanjiezhaoyinglidian，dantclzhonghuanmeiganshangtang。2019nianqi，zaixiayouzuoguangfuzujiandejingkenengyuanjiuzaichangshikongzhicongyuanliaodaoguangfubandequanliuchengshengchan。erbeitclkejishougouzhihou，zhonghuancaikaishitoujianguiliao、dianchihezujianxiangmu，yincizhengtibiaoxianluohouyuxingyexianxingzhe。

lingyigeshexiangzhongdexinyinglidianlaizihaiwai。qunian，tclzhonghuanzengzichengweinengyuangongsimaxeonzuidadegudong，chigubiliguoban。ibcdianchi-zujianxiliezhuanli、topcondianchigongyixiliezhuanli、diewazujianxiliezhuanlishizheijiagongsidehexinjingzhengli。danzida2019nianhezuoyishi，chulequnian，maxeonjiumeizhengguoqian，zongshizaikuisun，xianzaioumeidiqudeguangfuyexiaxingzhouqili。

图：TCL中环收购的Maxeon连年亏损

kuisunzhong，tclzhonghuanduiguojishichangdetouruhaizaijiada。tclzhonghuanyushatealabogonggongtouzijijin、shatenengyuanshebeigongsivision industriesgongtongshelihezigongsi，chigu40%，zaishatetoujiannianchan20gwguangfujingtijingpiangongchangxiangmu，zongtouziegaoda20.8yimeiyuan（yuerenminbi146.26yiyuan）。

图：TCL中环过去五年的股价变化

zaishichangdimishi，tclzhonghuanquehaijinxingledaliangtouzi，jiazhonglegongsidecaiwufudan。gujiayincichixuxiahua，shizhizhengfachaoguobacheng。haozaiguipianrujinzhongyuzhangjiale。jinnian8yue，longjilvnenghetclzhonghuanxianhouxuanbudiaozhangguipianjiage。gongsigujiayesuizhimanmanhuidan。

hemianbanyiyang，guangfuyeshiyigeqiangzhouqidexingye。sheinengzaixiaxingzhouqizhongaozhu，sheijiuyoujihuituoyingerchu。