wen | jiazhixingqiuplanet zhuming

编辑 | 计然

zuijin，yilunxindemaifangre，zhengzaiquanguoshangyan。

zaishenzhen，2047pikehuqiang192taofang，1.5gexiaoshishouqing；zaishanghai，jinershoufangyitianjiuchengjiaojin600tao；64taojunjiazai600wanyuanzhi900wanyuanzhijiandeloufang，xiyinle1300zufangke、chao5000renlaidaoshoulouchuxianchangxunjia，kaipanjishouqing……

zheishizijinnianlaiguojiaduiloushijinxingdiaokonghou，nandedechangmian。

10yue17ri，zhujianbulianheziranziyuanbu、yangxing、guojiajinrongjianguanzongjudengbumenzhenduiloushituichuyixilie“zuhequan”zhengce，gaikuolaishuojiushisigequxiao、sigejiangdi、lianggezengjia。

biru，jidifangzhengfugengduozizhuquan，quxiaogeleixianzhicuoshi；jiangdishoufubihecunliangfangdaililv，jianhuangoufangzhefudan；tongguohuobihuaanzhidengfangshi，xinzengshishi100wantaochengzhongcunheweijiufanggaizaodengdeng。

zheishijinqiloushichixushifanglihaoxinhaohou，zaicizengjiadezhongbangxiaoxi。quanguogedifangchanzhongjiedepengyouquan，youyicifeitengle。

genyiwangbutongdeshi，yiwangzhongjiefeiteng，henduogoufangzhechizhiyibi，renweitamenzaigaoyingxiao。danzheiyicibutong，yinweigoufangzhemenyefeitengle。quanguogedichuxianlejiuweidemaifangre，fangziyouchengweichayufanhouderemenhuati，shenzhinengkandaogoufangzheda“feide”qiangzhemaifangdefengkuangjingxiang，loushidexinxinsihuzhongxinzaijiju。

shijishang，congfangqiqiyexinzengshulianglaikan，zheiliangnianfangqideshuliangyerengzaibaochizengzhang。tianyanchashujuxianshi，2022nianxinzengzhuceqiye44.2wanyujia，xinzengzhuceqiyezengsu16.1%；2021nianzengsugengshidadao37.7%。

bizhezaigenbufengoufangzhe、fangchanzhongjiedejiaoliuzhong，faxianloushidequereleqilai。danshi，zheichangturuqilaideloushirechao，jiujingshizhenshihuinuanhaishiduanzanfanrong?

疯狂购房人，挤满售楼处

“shenpiao”duoniandemumu（huaming），zhengshizuijinhuoregoufangzhezhongdeyiyuan。

guoqujinian，mumuyizhizaishenzhenzuochengxuyuan，tongshiyeyizhizaikanfang。gendabufenguorenyiyang，mumuduibudongchanyoujinhuchimidexinyang。piaoboduonian，zaichuzuwuliwushugeshuibuzhedeyeli，takewangzaizheigechengshiyongyouyitaozhenzhengshuyuzijidefangzi，xiwangzaisishisuiqianzhaodaozijideguishugan。

mumujinniansanshiwu，youxiejixu，yueshourubijiaokeguan，yenadaoleshenzhenhukou，zaijiashangjiarendezhichi，zaishenzhenmaitaoxiaofangzibuchengwenti，zheiyijingchaoguolehenduonianqingren。

suiranyoumanzuguishugandexuqiu，danshiqianjinianmumuduiloushidereqingqishiyizhizaixiaotui。yinweibeifangjiayaozhan、fangqibaoleidengdaliangfumianxinxisuohuanrao，tahaipapengdaolanweilou，xianrunizhaozhizhong，suoyiyizhizaiguanwang。

buguo，zuijinshenbianhenduopengyougaosutaloushidechuntiandaole，youqishishenzhendeloushi，keyikaolvrushoule，takaishichunchunyudong。

shouxian，mumuchalechashuju，dequekandaoshichangreleqilai。guoqingjiaqiqijian，shenzhenxinfangchengjiaoliangtongbidazhang10bei。shenzhenzhongyuanyanjiuzhongxinjianceshujuxianshi，jiezhi10yue13ri，shenzhen10yuexinfangrengouliangdadao4418tao，xiangdangyuyiwanglianggeyuedewangqianliang。

lingwai，weiboshang#shenzhen395taofangyuan8xiaoshishouqing#、#waidirendafeidefushenzhenmaifang#denghuatipinpindengshangresoubang，cijizhetademaifangyuwang。

biru，10yue19riweiyushenzhenguangmingqudezhongjianguanyuekaipan，2047pikehuqiang192taofang。juleyoujiayanjiuzhongxindexiaoxi，xiangmukaipan1.5gexiaoshijishouqing，yujixiaoshoujineyue6yiyuan，keyishuoshifenhuobao。

baozhangdexiaoliang、huoredechangmian，maifangrensihudouzaifengkuangdigenshijiansaipao，mumudexintaiyecongciqiandedandingbiandejiaozhuo，shengpazaizheichangqiangfangdazhanzhongdiaodui，yushijuedingqukanlehenjiudemoushenzhenloupanyitanjiujing。

zheigeloupanjunjiazailiuwanzuoyou，youbashipingdexiaohuxing，nengmanzumumuzheiyangcailiyouxiandegangxuke。rangmumuyixiangbudaodeshi，jinrudaoshoulouchukanfangyaoxianzaimenkoupaiduibanxiaoshiyishang。kaifashangxiaocheng，shoulouchubilvyoujingdianderenkoumidudouda。

touguobolichuangwanglikan，mumujingyadifaxian，wangrilengqingdeshoulouchulimian，jingranzuomanlezixunfangzideren。tayebuzhidaolimiandegoufangzheshizhenshidehaishiqinglaidetuo，zhikandaoxiaoshouyuanmangqianmanghou，tuomohengfeidijieshaozheloupanxinxi，yanjingliliuluchukangfenheyuwang。

congxianshangdaoxianxiadehuobaochangmian，chedijiandinglemumumaifangdejuexin。paiduijinrushoulouchuhou，congkanfangdaoxiadingmumuzhihualebudaolianggexiaoshi，shoufufuleyibaiduowan。beiwendaoweiheruciganjingliluoshi，tadehuifushi：“xianshangchezaishuo，buranbeibierenqiangle。”

congloushideguanwangzhedaoruchangzhe，mumuqianhoujinglibuguoyigexingqideshijian，xiadinghoutatanyan“ganjuexiangzuomengyiyang”“shiworenshengzhongzuoguozuifengkuangdeshi”。

chuleshenzhen，qitajigeyixianchengshideloushidouchuxianlehenduo“mumu”zheiyangdegoufangzhe，tuidongzheloushijinruhuorechangmian：guoqingjiaqi，beijingxinfangxiadingliangbiqunianfanyifan；guangzhou80%dexinfangxiangmudaofanghechengjiaoliangmingxianzengzhang，youquyuqiansantianrijunchengjiaohuanbizhangchao500%；shanghaiguoqingqian6tiandexinfangchengjiaomianji，jiaoshangniantongqifanbei。

zhufanghechengxiangjianshebubuzhangnihongbiaoshi，zi9yuediyilai，zhongdianchengshiyishoufangdekanfangliang、daofangliang、qianyueliangmingxianzengjia，ershoufangdejiaoyiliangchixushangsheng，shichangchuxianlejijibianhua。

neime，weishenmechuxianzheiboloushire？genyiqianderechaoyouhebutong？

疯狂背后的“三大推力”

loushinenghuo，bixuyaomanzusangetiaojian：menjiandi、yuqihao、zijinzu。

menjiandile，yongruloushideqianzaigoufangzhecaihuigengduo。ciqian，guojiayizhizaijiangdishoufubihefangdaililv，fangkaixiangou，jiangdidajiademaifangmenjianhezijinyali。jintian，fangdaililvyoujiangdaolelishizuidi。

10yue21ri，daikuanshichangbaojialilv（lpr）wei：1nianqilprwei3.10%（qianzhishi3.35%），5nianqiyishanglprwei3.60%（qianzhishi3.85%）。zheishijinnianyilailprdisancixiajiang，yeshijiangfuzuidadeyici。hangzhou、wuhandengchengshideshoutaoshangdaililvyijingjiangdao2.9%，shuaxinlishijilu，gengongjijinde2.85%jibenmeichabie，xiyinlegengduogoufangzheruchang。

jiangdimenjianzhishijichu，goufangzhederushouyiyuanhaiyaoyituolianghaodeyuqi，bijingguorenxianglaidoushizhuizhangshadiede。erjinqiyilaiyoutaiduodelihaozhengce，balaobaixingdeyuqilaman。

youyulihaozhengcetaiduo，wotiaoyigedajiazhongdianguanzhude，yejiushi“tongguohuobihuaanzhidengfangshi，xinzengshishi100wantaochengzhongcungaizaoheweijiufanggaizao”。huiwangguoqu，2015nianhuobihuapenggai580wantao，2016nianchaoguo600wantao，zheiyicishi100wantao，shijishangyouyicifaqianjilaobaixing，jinxingzhangjiaqukucun。

youzhuanjiazhichu，zheixiangzhengceyouzhuyuxiaohuacunliangshangpinfang、zhudongdiaojieshichanggongqiuguanxi。yihujunjianzhumianji100pingfangmijisuan，100wantaochengzhongcunheweijiufanggaizao，youwangshifangyue1yipingfangmidegangxinggoufangxuqiu。erqie，100wantaozhishikaishi。zhujianbudefabuhuishifangchumingquexinhao，keyizai100wantaojichushangjixujiadazhichilidu。

weilaishichangxuqiudezengjia，yiweizheloushiqiwendekenengxingzengda，goufangzhedeyuqiyegengzu。gengoufangzheyuqiyiyangzudehaiyoufangchanzhongjie，mouhangzhoufangchanzhongjiegaosubizhe，jinnianshangbannianyejicandandaokuaiyaolizhi，xianzaimeitianjiedaishijizukehu，mangdaochifandeshijiandoumeiyou，weixinyundongrijunchaowanbu，qingxingzijimeiyoutiqianlizhi。

zailihaozhengcelamanyuqidetongshi，goufangzhehaideshoushangyouqiancaixing，buranloushidehuoreyezhishitingliuzaizhimianshang。erzheiyilunloushideshangzhang，gengushishangzhangxuduorencaifuzengjiayeyouzhemibukefendeguanxi。

yifangmian，gushishangzhangtongguocaifuxiaoyingchuandaodaoloushi，tuidongshichanghuinuan，shuobailedajiajuedegupiaoshangzhangleshoushangyouqianle，keyigengdadandiquxiaofeihuozhemaifangle。lingyifangmian，yidangushichixushangzhang，xianzaideloushixiangduijiuchengweilejiagewadi，reqianjiuhuiwangloushiyongru。

zongzhi，congmenjian、yuqihezijindengfangmianlaikan，loushidequereleqilai。buguo，zheijiujingshiquanmianhuinuanhaishiduanzanfanrong，rengranjubeibuquedingxing。

全面回暖还是短暂繁荣？

meidangshichangkaishiyoureqilaidemiaotoushihou，zongyouyiborenxuanyangniushiyaolaile。zheizhongrenbushichun，jiushihuai。yinweirenheyigeshichangyaozhenzhengfanrongqilai，douyaokanjiageheshijian。

biru，guangzhouzheiciquanmianfangkaixiangouhouyinglaiyiboloushirechao，beihoubenzhishangshijiyaduoniandexuqiujizhongshifang。danjiujingnengchixuduojiu、jiagenengfouchixushangzhang，yiranjuyoubuquedingxing。

shijishang，yanxiaguangzhouloushihaibujubeichixuzhangjiadetiaojian，xinfangshichangxuyaojixutongguodijiaxiaoshoujiakuaiqukucun，jiangdikucunyali，18geyueyihoucaikenengtanlunfangjiashangzhang。tongyangzaiershoufangshichang，xiaohuawandijiafangyuanhou，maijiacaikenengqingxiangyugaojiafangyuan。jinguanyoumaijiahuitigaobaojia，danbingbuyiweizhezuizhongnengchengjiao，henduoshihoushiyixiangqingyuan。

qicibixukandao，muqianloushirechaozhuyaozaiyierxianchengshi，sansixianchengshiyiranchuzaidimizhuangtai，suoyishuoxianzaijiuquanmianhuinuanhaiweishishangzao。quanguoloushidekucunyaliyiranjuda，shenzhixiangwuhanzheiyangdexinyixianchengshi，jinguanchengjiaoliangyousuohuishengdanxiangbijudadekucunyiranshibeishuichexin。

lingwai，jiuquanguofanweineilaikan，zaijinglijiniandeloushidiaokongheshichangxiaxinghou，goufangzhedeguanwangqingxuyiranbijiaononghou，duiyushichangzoushichijinshentaidu。yaoxiangduanqineiniuzhuantamendeguanwangqingxu，yiranjiaoweikunnan。

zaizhe，zhengcediaokongdechixuxingyeshiyigebuquedingyinsu。congguojiadekaolvlaikan，ruguoloushi、gushichixufanrong，jingjijianghuichudifusu，jinergaishanjiuyehexiaofei。danshi，youyuzhengcechutaiguoyupinfan，shichangnanyixingchengwendingdeyuqi。yincizhengcecengmianzheiciyaobaochizhanlvedingli，ranglaobaixingkandaojuexinhexinxin。

zongtishang，muqianloushizhishikandaolehuinuanmiaotou，nengbunengzhangqirexiaqurengshigewenhao。xiangyaomaifangdepengyou，haishiyaolixingzailixing，biebeirenaodeshichangfenweichonghunletounao。