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meizhaishouyilvdazhang,baoweiernengfoufukegelinsipandehuihuangshike?

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美债收益率大涨,鲍威尔能否复刻格林斯潘的辉煌时刻?

9yuemeilianchujiangxiyilai,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvfandandejiezouhefudushuyulicijiangxizhouqizuiqiang,yu1995niande“ruanzhelu”zoushizuiweixiangsi。

图源:CFP

界面新闻记者 | 刘婷

youyushichanghuidiaomeilianchujiangxiyuqi、yiji“telangpujiaoyi”juantuzhonglai,jinqimeiguoguozhaibeidafuzuokong,meizhaishouyilvchuxiandazhang。

jiezhizhouer,2nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvshangzhang0.07gejidian,bao4.03%,zimeilianchu9yuejiangxiyilai,2nianqimeizhaishouyilvyizhangyu30gejidian;10nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvshangzhang1.2gejidian,bao4.21%,chuang7yueyilaizuigaoshuiping,jiao9yue17ri(meilianchujiangxiqianyitian)de15geyuedidian3.62%shangzhang59gejidian。zhaiquanjiageheshouyilvchengfanbi,jiagexiadie,shouyilvshangsheng,fanzhiyiran。

fenxishibiaoshi,jinqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvjizengfanyingchutouzizhedebuquedingxingbuduanzengjia,zheizhongbuquedingxingbingfeizhuyaozhenduimeilianchu11yuejiangxidekenengxing,ershizhenduiweilaiyinianlilvdiaozhengdepinlv。zuixindelilvdiaoqishujuxianshi,jiaoyiyuanyujimeilianchuzai2025nian9yuezhiqianjiangjiangxi128gejidian,xiangbiyigeyueqian195gejidiandeyuqidafuxiajiang。

pengboshezhichu,meiguoguozhaizaimeilianchujiangxizhouqizaoyurucidadepaoshoushishuhanjian,zheizhongqingkuangshangcichuxianzai1995nian,dangshiailun·gelinsipanlingdaodemeilianchuchenggongyindaomeiguojingjishixian“ruanzhelu”。1995nian7yuezhi1996nian1yue,meilianchutongguosancijiangxi,jiangjizhunlilvcong6%xiadiaozhi5.25%,chenggongyizhiletongzhang,qiebingweidailaijingjidimi。huigulishi,zai1989nianzhi2020niandeliucikuansongzhouqizhong,meilianchuzhiyouliangcichenggongshixianlejingji“ruanzhelu”,fenbiewei1995nianhe1998nian。

zaimeilianchukaiqikuansongzhouqihou,meigu、meizhaihehuangjinjiagetongchanghuisuizhejiangxiershangzhang。duiyu1995nianlaishuo,zaidangnianshoucijiangxihoude12geyuenei,10nianqiguozhaishouyilvyueshengyu100gejidian,2nianqiguozhaishouyilvshangsheng90gejidian。zheihedangqianmeizhaiyudaodeqingxingyouxieleisi。

dongfangjinchengyanjiufazhanbugaojifuzongjianbaixueduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi,9yuemeilianchukaiqijiangxizhouqihou,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvfandandejiezouhefudushuyulicizuiqiang,yu1995niande“ruanzhelu”zoushizuiweixiangsi。“yu1995niandeqingkuangbijiaolaikan,dangqianxiangsizhichuzaiyu,meigugujia、fangdichanjiage、xiaofeixinxin、yinxingxindaidengjinrongyuxinyongshichanghuanjingyunxingshangjiaoweipingwen,nenggouduijingjixingchengyidingzhicheng。”baixueshuo。

deyizhiyinxinglilvcelveshisteven zengpingluncheng,meiguojingjishujuxiangdangqiangjing,meilianchukenenghuifangmanjiangxibufa,zuijinmeizhaishouyilvshangshengfanyingchujingjishuaituifengxiandegailvjiangdi。

danshixianrenmeilianchuzhuxijieluomu·baoweiernengfouzhongxiangelinsipandehuihuangshikerengyoudaiguancha。baixuezhichu,yu1995nianbutongdeshi,benlunzhouqizhongshiyelvyinhanchixushangxingdequshi。ruohouxulaodonglishichangjixuehuabingxiangshitijingjichuandao,kenengxingcheng“shiyezengjia—juminshouruxiajiang—xiaofeixiajiang—qiyelirunyuqixiajiang—qiyesuojianshengchanhecaiyuan—shiyejinyibuzengjia”defufankui,congerduijingjijibenmianxingchengxiaxingyali。

zichanguanligongsiaboluodeshouxijingjixuejiatuoersi·tengsiluokezaishangzhoufabudebaogaozhongbiaoshi,suiranzaijiuyezengzhang、gongzishangshengyijigujiahefangjiadetuidongxia,meiguoxiaofeichixubiaoxianlianghao,danshirengxuzhongdianguanzhujijianggongbude10yuejiuyebaogao。“ruguofeinongjiuyerenshuzhendedadao15wanhuo20wan,womenhenrongyijiuhuikandaomeilianchubixugaibianzhengcebingkaishiweichililvbubiandejumian。”tengsiluokezhouyiduipengbosheshuo。 

chuleshichangxiadiaomeilianchujiangxiyuqiwai,suizhetelangpushengxuangailvzengjia,“telangpujiaoyi”zhengzaijuantuzhonglai,zheiyeshijinqimeizhaishouyilvdazhangdeyigeyinsu。touzizherenwei,telangpuzhongfanbaigong,yiweizhetongzhangtaitou。guanshuishitelangpujingjitiandehexin,tajianchengguanshuijiangjiangdichengben,danjingjixuejiajinggaocheng,guanshuizuizhongjiangzhuanjiajimeiguoxiaofeizhe,ertongzhangzaidutaitouzejiangdaozhimeilianchucaiqugengweiqiangyingdelichang,kenenghuizantingjiangxi,shenzhizaicijiaxiyidixiaowujiashangzhang。

mogendatongzaizuijindeyifenbaogaozhongyuce,11yuededaxuanhuichuxiansizhongqingxing,fenbiewei:telangpuhuoshengdanguohuiliangyuanfenlie,telangpuhuoshengqiegonghedangkongzhicanzhongliangyuan,halisihuoshengdanguohuifenlie,halisihuoshengqieminzhudangkongzhicanzhongliangyuan。zaizheisizhongqingxingzhong,zhiyouhalisihuoshengdanlifajigoufenliezheizhongqingkuangbuhuidui10nianqiguozhaishouyilvchanshengyingxiang,qiyusanzhongqingxingjiangdaozhimeiguoguozhaishouyilvshangsheng10-40gejidianbudeng,yinweiwulunshitelangpuhaishihalisidahuoquansheng,doujiangdailaicaizhengkuozhang、zhaiwushangsheng。

baixuebiaoshi,duanqilaikan,suizhedaxuanlinjin,“telangpujiaoyi”rengjiangchixu,jiazhimeiguozhaiwuguimozai10yue1rixincainianhouzaishangtaijie,meizhaigongjijieduanxingzengjia,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvrengyoushangxingyali。

“buguo,kaolvdaodangqianshichangyiduiciqianjijinjiangxidedingjiajinxinglejiaoweichongfendehuidiao,meizhaishouyilvjinyibudafushangxingdekenengxingbuda,1-2geyuenei,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvdagailvrengzai4.0%zuoyoudepiangaoshuipingyunxing。danzhongzhangqikan,womenpanduan,zaishijililvgaoqideqingkuangxia,meiguojingjixiaxingyaliyiranjiaoda,nengfoushixian‘ruanzhelu’rengxuguancha。suizhejingjizhuanruo、jinrujiangxizhouqi,yijijiaoyiyinsutuichang,zhangduanmeizhaishouyilvrengjiangzhengtichuyuxiaxingtongdao。”baixueshuo。

meiguocaizhengbuzuixinshujuxianshi,7yue26ri,meiguoguozhaizongeyitupo35wanyimeiyuandaguan,gaoyu2016nian9yuemo(telangpudiyirenqiqian)de19.6wanyimeiyuan,yegaoyu2020nian9yuedi(baidengshangrenqian)de27wanyimeiyuan。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。

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美债收益率大涨,鲍威尔能否复刻格林斯潘的辉煌时刻?

9yuemeilianchujiangxiyilai,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvfandandejiezouhefudushuyulicijiangxizhouqizuiqiang,yu1995niande“ruanzhelu”zoushizuiweixiangsi。

图源:CFP

界面新闻记者 | 刘婷

youyushichanghuidiaomeilianchujiangxiyuqi、yiji“telangpujiaoyi”juantuzhonglai,jinqimeiguoguozhaibeidafuzuokong,meizhaishouyilvchuxiandazhang。

jiezhizhouer,2nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvshangzhang0.07gejidian,bao4.03%,zimeilianchu9yuejiangxiyilai,2nianqimeizhaishouyilvyizhangyu30gejidian;10nianqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvshangzhang1.2gejidian,bao4.21%,chuang7yueyilaizuigaoshuiping,jiao9yue17ri(meilianchujiangxiqianyitian)de15geyuedidian3.62%shangzhang59gejidian。zhaiquanjiageheshouyilvchengfanbi,jiagexiadie,shouyilvshangsheng,fanzhiyiran。

fenxishibiaoshi,jinqimeiguoguozhaishouyilvjizengfanyingchutouzizhedebuquedingxingbuduanzengjia,zheizhongbuquedingxingbingfeizhuyaozhenduimeilianchu11yuejiangxidekenengxing,ershizhenduiweilaiyinianlilvdiaozhengdepinlv。zuixindelilvdiaoqishujuxianshi,jiaoyiyuanyujimeilianchuzai2025nian9yuezhiqianjiangjiangxi128gejidian,xiangbiyigeyueqian195gejidiandeyuqidafuxiajiang。

pengboshezhichu,meiguoguozhaizaimeilianchujiangxizhouqizaoyurucidadepaoshoushishuhanjian,zheizhongqingkuangshangcichuxianzai1995nian,dangshiailun·gelinsipanlingdaodemeilianchuchenggongyindaomeiguojingjishixian“ruanzhelu”。1995nian7yuezhi1996nian1yue,meilianchutongguosancijiangxi,jiangjizhunlilvcong6%xiadiaozhi5.25%,chenggongyizhiletongzhang,qiebingweidailaijingjidimi。huigulishi,zai1989nianzhi2020niandeliucikuansongzhouqizhong,meilianchuzhiyouliangcichenggongshixianlejingji“ruanzhelu”,fenbiewei1995nianhe1998nian。

zaimeilianchukaiqikuansongzhouqihou,meigu、meizhaihehuangjinjiagetongchanghuisuizhejiangxiershangzhang。duiyu1995nianlaishuo,zaidangnianshoucijiangxihoude12geyuenei,10nianqiguozhaishouyilvyueshengyu100gejidian,2nianqiguozhaishouyilvshangsheng90gejidian。zheihedangqianmeizhaiyudaodeqingxingyouxieleisi。

dongfangjinchengyanjiufazhanbugaojifuzongjianbaixueduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi,9yuemeilianchukaiqijiangxizhouqihou,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvfandandejiezouhefudushuyulicizuiqiang,yu1995niande“ruanzhelu”zoushizuiweixiangsi。“yu1995niandeqingkuangbijiaolaikan,dangqianxiangsizhichuzaiyu,meigugujia、fangdichanjiage、xiaofeixinxin、yinxingxindaidengjinrongyuxinyongshichanghuanjingyunxingshangjiaoweipingwen,nenggouduijingjixingchengyidingzhicheng。”baixueshuo。

deyizhiyinxinglilvcelveshisteven zengpingluncheng,meiguojingjishujuxiangdangqiangjing,meilianchukenenghuifangmanjiangxibufa,zuijinmeizhaishouyilvshangshengfanyingchujingjishuaituifengxiandegailvjiangdi。

danshixianrenmeilianchuzhuxijieluomu·baoweiernengfouzhongxiangelinsipandehuihuangshikerengyoudaiguancha。baixuezhichu,yu1995nianbutongdeshi,benlunzhouqizhongshiyelvyinhanchixushangxingdequshi。ruohouxulaodonglishichangjixuehuabingxiangshitijingjichuandao,kenengxingcheng“shiyezengjia—juminshouruxiajiang—xiaofeixiajiang—qiyelirunyuqixiajiang—qiyesuojianshengchanhecaiyuan—shiyejinyibuzengjia”defufankui,congerduijingjijibenmianxingchengxiaxingyali。

zichanguanligongsiaboluodeshouxijingjixuejiatuoersi·tengsiluokezaishangzhoufabudebaogaozhongbiaoshi,suiranzaijiuyezengzhang、gongzishangshengyijigujiahefangjiadetuidongxia,meiguoxiaofeichixubiaoxianlianghao,danshirengxuzhongdianguanzhujijianggongbude10yuejiuyebaogao。“ruguofeinongjiuyerenshuzhendedadao15wanhuo20wan,womenhenrongyijiuhuikandaomeilianchubixugaibianzhengcebingkaishiweichililvbubiandejumian。”tengsiluokezhouyiduipengbosheshuo。 

chuleshichangxiadiaomeilianchujiangxiyuqiwai,suizhetelangpushengxuangailvzengjia,“telangpujiaoyi”zhengzaijuantuzhonglai,zheiyeshijinqimeizhaishouyilvdazhangdeyigeyinsu。touzizherenwei,telangpuzhongfanbaigong,yiweizhetongzhangtaitou。guanshuishitelangpujingjitiandehexin,tajianchengguanshuijiangjiangdichengben,danjingjixuejiajinggaocheng,guanshuizuizhongjiangzhuanjiajimeiguoxiaofeizhe,ertongzhangzaidutaitouzejiangdaozhimeilianchucaiqugengweiqiangyingdelichang,kenenghuizantingjiangxi,shenzhizaicijiaxiyidixiaowujiashangzhang。

mogendatongzaizuijindeyifenbaogaozhongyuce,11yuededaxuanhuichuxiansizhongqingxing,fenbiewei:telangpuhuoshengdanguohuiliangyuanfenlie,telangpuhuoshengqiegonghedangkongzhicanzhongliangyuan,halisihuoshengdanguohuifenlie,halisihuoshengqieminzhudangkongzhicanzhongliangyuan。zaizheisizhongqingxingzhong,zhiyouhalisihuoshengdanlifajigoufenliezheizhongqingkuangbuhuidui10nianqiguozhaishouyilvchanshengyingxiang,qiyusanzhongqingxingjiangdaozhimeiguoguozhaishouyilvshangsheng10-40gejidianbudeng,yinweiwulunshitelangpuhaishihalisidahuoquansheng,doujiangdailaicaizhengkuozhang、zhaiwushangsheng。

baixuebiaoshi,duanqilaikan,suizhedaxuanlinjin,“telangpujiaoyi”rengjiangchixu,jiazhimeiguozhaiwuguimozai10yue1rixincainianhouzaishangtaijie,meizhaigongjijieduanxingzengjia,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvrengyoushangxingyali。

“buguo,kaolvdaodangqianshichangyiduiciqianjijinjiangxidedingjiajinxinglejiaoweichongfendehuidiao,meizhaishouyilvjinyibudafushangxingdekenengxingbuda,1-2geyuenei,10nianqimeizhaishouyilvdagailvrengzai4.0%zuoyoudepiangaoshuipingyunxing。danzhongzhangqikan,womenpanduan,zaishijililvgaoqideqingkuangxia,meiguojingjixiaxingyaliyiranjiaoda,nengfoushixian‘ruanzhelu’rengxuguancha。suizhejingjizhuanruo、jinrujiangxizhouqi,yijijiaoyiyinsutuichang,zhangduanmeizhaishouyilvrengjiangzhengtichuyuxiaxingtongdao。”baixueshuo。

meiguocaizhengbuzuixinshujuxianshi,7yue26ri,meiguoguozhaizongeyitupo35wanyimeiyuandaguan,gaoyu2016nian9yuemo(telangpudiyirenqiqian)de19.6wanyimeiyuan,yegaoyu2020nian9yuedi(baidengshangrenqian)de27wanyimeiyuan。

未经正式授权严禁转载本文,侵权必究。