记者 王珍

juxinhuashebaodao，dishisijiequanguorenmindaibiaodahuichangwuweiyuanhuidishiercihuiyidingyu11yue4rizhi8rizaibeijingzhaokai。shichangpubianyuqibencichangweihuihuiyijiangshenyishangdiaozhengfuzhaiwuxianedeyiti，bingtuidongxinyilundezhaiwuhuajiegongzuo。

10yue12ri，caizhengbubuzhanglanfoanzaifabuhuishangtoulu，weilehuanjiedifangzhengfudehuazhaiyali，chumeinianjixuzaixinzengzhuanxiangzhaixianezhongzhuanmenanpaiyidingguimodezhaiquanyongyuzhichihuajiecunliangzhengfutouzixiangmuzhaiwuwai，niyicixingzengjiajiaodaguimozhaiwuxianezhihuandifangzhengfucunliangyinxingzhaiwu，jiadaliduzhichidifanghuajiezhaiwufengxian，xiangguanzhengcedailvxingfadingchengxuhouzaixiangshehuizuoxiangjinshuoming。

jieshoujiemianxinwencaifangdefenxishipubianrenwei，cicicunliangyinxingzhaiwudezhihuanedukenengzai3wanyi-6wanyiyuanzhijian。

youfenxishizhichu，zheibufenhuazhaizijinkenengzuizhongyouzhongyangjiagangganchengdan，danyouyuzhongyangdiaozengchizixuyaokaolvdeyinsugengduo、liuchenggengzhang，suoyizuikenengdefangshishizhongyangxiananpaidifangzhengfuyicixingdiaozhengxiane，jichengtouzhaiwuxianzhihuanweidifangzhaiwu（zhuanxiangzhaiheyibanzhai），difangzhaiwuzhujianzhihuanweizhongyangzhaiwu，jinertuidongyangdizhaiwujiegouyouhua。

以下是界面新闻采访和摘录的部分机构观点

银河证券：预计置换规模在6万亿元左右

genjuguojiqingsuanyinxingshuju，2018nian9yuemowoguogejizhengfuzhaiwuyuewei47.7wanyiyuan，ertongqiwoguocaizhengbugongbudezhongyanghedifangzhengfuzhaiwuyuehejiwei32.6wanyiyuan，liangzhejiandechaewei15wanyiyuan，jishiguojiqingsuanyinxingrenweishuyuwoguozhengfuzhaiwudanweinarufadingzhengfuzhaiwutongjidebufen，ruguoanzheiyikoujingjisuan，woguozhengfuyinxingzhaiwuguimohuozai15wanyiyuanzuoyou。

zaicijichushang，genjucaizhengbuxinwenfabuhuisuoshu“jiezhi2023nianmo，quanguonaruzhengfuzhaiwuxinxipingtaideyinxingzhaiwuyuebi2018nianmodishujianshaole50%”，keyituisuanchudangqianyinxingzhaiwuguimohuozai7.5wanyiyuanzuoyou。yinci，womenrenweibencidaguimohuazhaiyingzai7.5wanyiyuanzhinei，dabufenyouzhengfuzhaizhihuanfangshijiejue，shengyubufenyinzhaitongguoqitahuazhaifangshijiejue。

congjinnianlaitudichurangshouruquekoudejiaodufenxi，womenrenweiyicixingzhihuanguimozai6wanyiyuanzuoyouhuoshiheyishuiping。zhengfuxingjijinshourushiguoquzhuanxiangzhaihechengtouzhaidezhuyaochangzhailaiyuan，zaidichanchixudimizhixia，zi2023nianqidifangtudishouruyijingdiyuzhengfuzhaihechengtouzhaidedaoqichanghailiang。2022nian-2024nianzhengfuxingjijinzongshouruquekouzai4.2wanyiyuanzuoyou，weilailiangnianshouruquekouyujizaimeinian1wanyiyuanzuoyou。yinci，congxinzengzhengfuzhaiwuedubuchongtudishouruquekoudejiaodulaikan，6wanyiyuanzuoyoudehuazhaiguimonenggouyidingchengdushangmibudifangyintudishourudafujiangdidaozhideshouruquekou，zengqiangkezhipeicaili。

华创证券：预计一次性增加6万亿元债务限额化债

shouxianxuyaomingquedeshi，caizhengbutidaode“niyicixingzengjiajiaodaguimozhaiwuxianezhihuandifangzhengfucunliangyinxingzhaiwu”zhenduideyingshicaizhengkoujingyinzhai，jilanbuzhangtijide“naruzhengfuzhaiwuxinxipingtaideyinxingzhaiwuyue”，yinciguimohuomingxianxiaoyushichanganchengtouyouxifuzhaicesuandeyinzhai。

qici，yi2018nianweiqidian，caizhengkoujingyinzhaiguimohuojiejin20wanyiliangji，ancaizhengbushuode“2023nianmobi2018nianmodishujianshao50%”suan，zhi2023nianmocunliangyinxingzhaiwuyuewei10wanyiyuan。

zaici，yi2027nianweizhongdian，yuji2024-2027niananpaideqitahuazhaieduyue4wanyiyuan，juticankaolanbuzhangtidaodeliangdian：yishi，2024nian“yijinganpaile1.2wanyiyuan”zhichihuazhai；ershi“meinianjixuzaixinzengzhuanxiangzhaixianezhongzhuanmenanpaiyidingguimodezhaiquan”，2024nianyianpai8000yiyuandeteshuxinzengzhuanxiangzhai， 2025-2027nianteshuxinzengzhuanxiangzhaihejihuokefaxingyue2.4wanyi-3wanyiyuan。

zuihou，yongshangshuguochengkuangsuande2023nianmocaizhengkoujingyinzhai（yue10wanyi），jianqu2024-2027niananpaideqitahuazhaiedu（yue4wanyi），kede“niyicixingzengjiajiaodaguimozhaiwuxianezhihuandifangzhengfucunliangyinxingzhaiwu”deqianzailiangjihuoyue6wanyiyuan，diejiameinianjixufaxingteshuxinzengzhuanxiangzhai，weilaisannianhuazhaitilianghuodayue9wanyiyuan。

财信国际研究院：预计一次性新增债务限额约5万亿元

根据全国公开发债城投平台有息负债数据，预计2018年财政部排摸的、纳入政府债务信息平台的全国隐性债务余额在40万亿-50万亿元。再结合10月12日财政部发布会上透露的信息——“截至2023年末，全国纳入政府债务信息平台的隐性债务余额比2018年摸底数减少了50%”，意味着2023年全国政府隐性债务余额在20万亿-25万亿元左右。考虑到近几年化债过程中部分平台债已经置换为金融债，需要财政承担的存量隐性债务规模在20万亿元左右。 

根据150号文提出的“要求城投平台于2027年6月份之前退出融资平台名单”进行推算，预计本轮大规模化债仍需持续3-4nian，yinciyujiyicixingxinzengzhaiwuxianeguimozai5wanyiyuanzuoyou。

zhidezhuyideshi，zheibufenhuazhaizijinkenengzuizhongyouzhongyangjiagangganchengdan，danyouyuzhongyangdiaozengchizixuyaokaolvdeyinsugengduo、liuchenggengzhang，suoyizuikenengdefangshishizhongyangxiananpaidifangzhengfuyicixingdiaozhengxiane，jichengtouzhaiwuxianzhihuanweidifangzhaiwu（zhuanxiangzhaiheyibanzhai），difangzhaiwuzhujianzhihuanweizhongyangzhaiwu，jinertuidongyangdizhaiwujiegouyouhua。

中诚信国际：本次或安排3万亿-4万亿元的置换额度

2015nianyilai，woguogongjinxinglesanlunjiaodaguimodezhaiwuzhihuan，yujibencixinzengzhaiwuxianeguimojiangchaoguoqianyilun1.5wanyiyuanteshuzairongzizhaiguimo，ruocongfugaichengtouzhaiwufuxiyali、jianqingliudongxingfengxiandejiaodu，huokeyicixinganpai3wanyi-4wanyiyuandezhihuanedu。

lingwai，ruogenjuzhongdianshengfenzhaiwuyaligusuan，muqianzhongdianshengfencunliangchengtouyouxizhaiwuguimo8.8wanyiyuan，ruozaikaolvgeshengdezhengfuqiankuanyali，zhi2027nianzhihuanzongedukenengzai10wanyiyuanzuoyou，yu2015-2018nian“sannianzhihuan”liduxiangdang。

国联证券：年内约有1.8万亿元的化债任务或通过调增限额解决

womenguji，jiezhi2023niandi，quanguonaruzhengfuzhaiwuxinxipingtaideyinxingzhaiwuyueyingdazhizai9.7wanyiyuanzhi19.7wanyiyuanzhijian，anzhao2015-2018nianjidingzhihuancunliangmubiaodayuewancheng86%debili，benlunyinzhaizhihuanguimo（2024-2027niandi）huozai8.38wanyiyuanzhi16.95wanyiyuanzhijian，jiasheweipingjunzhi12wanyiyuan，bingzuoruxiatuice：

pingjunlaikan，2024-2027nianmeinianyingchengdan3wanyiyuandehuazhairenwu，jucaizhengbubiaoshu2024nianyianpai1.2wanyiyuanyongyugaofengxiandiquhuajiecunliangzhaiwufengxianheqinglituoqianqiyezhangkuandeng，yincinianneihuohaiyouyue1.8wanyiyuandehuazhairenwu，xuyaotongguodiaozengxianejiejue。

duiyu2025-2027nianjiandemeinian3wanyiyuanhuazhairenwu，womentuice，weilaimeinianhuoanpai7000yi-8000yiyuandexinzengzhuanxiangzhaiyongyuzhichihuajiecunliangyinxingzhaiwu，ciwai，meinianhuohaiyouyue2.2wanyiyuandexianediaozeng。zongshang，2024niansijidu-2027niandi，huogongyou8.4wanyiyuandexianediaozengxuqiu，danshijidiaozhengfangshihediaozhengguimohaiyoudaihouxuhuiyiqueding。