wen | gangguyanjiushe qinshengzouxiangshi

jinnian，zaihaiwai“yihubaiying”delabubuyu“laoma”paopaomateyitongburulechaowanshidaidequanxinjieduan。

xianshilabubuhuoshou“shenqitaiguotiyanguan”，shougelabubuzhutidianyeluodimangu。suihoupaopaomateyezaifabusanjiducaibaohouyinglaigujiaxingao（10yue24rishoupanjia75.85yuan/gu，2021nian3yueyilaidexingao）。

zhishi“haojingbuzhang”。julichuangxingaojinyizhou，paopaomatechuangshiren、dagudongyijidongshifenfenduiqichiyoudepaopaomatedegufenjinxinglejianchi。

公告显示，10月24日，GWF Holding以每股71.98港元的价格减持泡泡玛特1085万股，合计涉资约7.81亿港元；王宁wancheng2170wangudejianchi，shejizijinyue15.62yigangyuan；paopaomatedongshisideyimeigu71.53gangyuandejiage，jianchipaopaomate210wangu。

neime，zheiyixilie“mizhicaozuo”beihou，daodishi“yanwudan”haishi“jingbaodeng”ni？

01 “掌门人”下车，“塑料茅台”的“泡沫”要破了？

huoxu，shichangdexinqingrengrantingliuzai10yue22rifabudechaoyuqijibaoshang。

10月22日，泡泡玛特发布三季度财报，三季度公司整体收入同比增长超120%，其中港aotaijihaiwaiyewuyingshoujizengchao440%。

shangbannian，paopaomateshixianyingshou45.6yiyuan，tongbizeng62.0%，jingdiaozhenghoujingli10.2yiyuan，tongbizeng90.1%。qizhong，haiwaishichangkaituojibendihuayunyingtuidongqishixianyingshou13.5yiyuan，tongbizengzhang259.6%，shouruzhanbijiejin30%。

qiansangejidudeyejibiaoxian，zhengrushichangjichudetongyipingjia“dachaoyuqi，lingrenjingxi”。neime，shifenggaoguanjieliandashoubijianchi，zheishibushiyiweizhedepaopaomatedegaozengzhangyijingxingzhidingdian？

shouxian，muqianguoneinaizhiquanqiuchaowanxingyerengchuyugaosuzengzhangzhouqi。《zhongguochaowanyudongmanchanyefazhanbaogao（2024）》xianshi，chanyeguimoshang，2023nianzhongguochaowanchanyedeshichangzongjiazhiyidadaoyue600yiyuan。

zengsufangmian，zhongguochaowanchanyedeshichangguimoyicong2015niande63yiyuanzengzhangzhi2021niande345yiyuan，fuhenianjunzengzhanglvda33%。yuji2026nianzhongguochaowanchanyedeshichangguimojiangdadao1101yiyuan。

suoyi，keyikendingdeshishichangxuqiuwangsheng，chaowanxingyedezhangqiqianjingshiminglangde。

qici，paopaomateqixiachanpindereduyizhichuyuzhangshengbushuaidezhuangtai。jinguan，huiyuanfugoulvchuyuchixuxiajiangdezhuangtai，yijingcong2019niande58%xiajiangzhi2024nianshangbanniande43.9%，danjiezhijinnianshangbannian，guoqujin6geyuedeshijian，paopaomatezaiguoneijiuxinzenglezhucehuiyuan457.3wanren，er2024nianshangbannianhuiyuangongxianxiaoshouezhanbi92.8%。

kuaisuzengzhangdehuiyuanrenshuyijihuiyuanquntishifenkeguande“zhanli”。jiuhaobi，youderen“yiyididuo”，youderencaiyong“renhaizhanshu”，jishuyuedabengfachudenengliangzhongguihuigengqiangde。

zaizhe，haiwaishichangfangmian，jinnian7yuetaiguodiliudiankaiyeshouriyingyeejiuyijingtupoqianwan，xiangbiguoquweirensuochengsongdeshanghaishoudianshouyuepoqianwandeyingyee。xianran，xianzaidepaopaomateyijingkuaruxindejieduan。

erqie，haiwaixindiandianxiaochixuxiangshangpapo。jiezhijinniansanjidupaopaomatehaiwaimendianshuliangyijingdadao110+，jiyujiaohaodedianpuxuanzhihezhuangxiu，birulundunniujinjiedian、balilufugongdian、dongjingsegudian、hanguomingdongdian、yidalimilandian、helanamusitedandian，muqianjunqudelebucuodeyingyexiaoguo。

yinci，yijingzaihaiwaizaoshichenggongdepaopaomate，muqianbingmeiyouhouxufalidejixiang。zhiyufenfenjianchidegaoguanmen，weihexuanzecishijianchi，huoxuyouqitadekaoliang。

02 高溢价背后的不确定性，才是最薄弱之处

减持前，泡泡玛特董事长兼CEO王宁cengbiaoshi，jituanjiangchongciquannianbaiyiyingshoudemubiao。jiezhimuqian，jiyushangbannian45yideyingshouchengguoyijisanjidudedachaoyuqi，shixianquannianbaiyibingbunan。

raner，shixianyingshoumubiaodelingyimian，shichanpinzaishichangyijixiaofeizhexinzhongdejiazhichengxian。bijing，paopaomatezoudeshiyuyibanchaowanpinpaibutongdelu。duibimingchuangyoupin，paopaomatemingxianzaiipkaifaheyunyingshanggengzhanyoushi，ermingchuangyoupinzeqiangzaigongyinglianhexiaoshounenglishang。

zhengyinweiruci，paopaomatexuyaobazhuyiliwanquanfangzaiziyouipdeqianliwajueshang，zheilikeyiyinshendaocaibaozhongtijideyijuhua“chaoliuwanjuoueryixianliangbanchushoushi，juyouyidingshouzangjiazhi”。

muqianshichangshangdaredelabubu，qiyinzangkuandeershoushoujiadaduohuifanshubei。erciqianzaialipaimaideliangkuandimmodawashouban，qipaijia1099yuan，zuizhongchengjiaojiagaoda14wanhe16wan，quanqiujinciyifendelianmingmuzhimollyzuizhongpaimaijiagengshigaoda33.35wan，kancheng“suliaomaotai”。

zheishishoubanmenjiazhijingrendeyimian。gaoyijiadebeihouyuanyuyizhongjiazhirentong。jiuhaobijiuzhongmaotai，dingjiazhiyaoshoudaodabufenrenderenke，neimetadejiazhijiuhuiwendingzaizheigequjian，yeleisiyu“yigeyuandayigeyuanai”。

jinguan，shoubanmenyinweishouzangjiazhierjubeilicaishuxing，danyouyushoubanchanpingengduodezhishizhanshijiazhi，shuyuyizhongxinxingwenhua，shiyizhongchaoliuxingshi，youjiaoqiangdeshixiaoxing，wulunshixiaofeizhehaishipaopaomate，douxuyaobuduandequ“yabao”。

erqie，qishiyingchangjing、renqunhedailaideyingxiang，yebingbuxiangguoneidejiuwenhuayiyang，jingguolishizhanghedexuntao，yingxiangliyijinggenshendigu。

gengbushoukongdeshi，zuichudexianliangkuanyoukenengturankaishiliangchan，huozheguoqi。shenzhiyuguanfangzijizhudongxiachang，chuxinkuanfukelaokuan。yinci，gaoyijiadebeihouwangwangcunzaijiaodadebodonghebuquedingxing。zheiyeshiwentisuozai，youyuqizhenshijiazhiyushichangjiazhixiangbeili，suirangaoyijiayuanyujiazhirentong，danyeyoukenengkunyujiazhirentong。

dangshichangzhujianhuiguilixing，xiaofeizhedexuanzeqingxiangzhongxinshoulizhizhudao，neimechongdongxiaofeijiangbufucunzai，shouzangjiazhiyejiangsuizheshichangqingxuzhujianlengjingersuoshui，shouzangjiazhisuochuangzaodechanpinxiyinliyehuisuizhijiangdi，congerxingchengliansuofanying。

erqieyinweishoubanleichanpindezhizuomenjianbingbugao，shimianshangzhenjiananbiandegaofangchanpinbibijieshi，zheibujinshiduixiaofeizhedeqinhai，yeshiduipinpaizhangqiwenjianfazhandetiaozhan。yinci，paopaomatexuyaojinkenengderangipjichanpinjiazhixiangwaiyanzhan。

03 中国版“迪士尼”，泡泡玛特的“终点”？

ruhejiangipjiazhi“gengdahua”，ruhebaituoshoubanchaowanshichangdebuwendingxing，paopaomatejichulexindejietisilu——xiangdishini“kaolong”。

qichu，shuangfangyigekaowanfayunyingip，yigekaodonghuagushiyunyingip。zhidao2023nian，pop landzhengshikaiye，paopaomatedegeleiipcongshoubankaishi，youlezhuanshudonghua，xingzhidaweibianhua。

congguoqushituyongzhutileyuanlaipoquandaoxianzai，poquanbuzaishidiyiyaoyi。guoqupaopaomatequeshaoqiangdadeip，danxianzai，paopaomatexuyaodeshijieshizhutileyuanshixianipjiazhide“gengdahua”。

zuizhiguandebianhuashi，ipyunyingdezhongdianbuzaijinjinjujiaoyuwanfa，ipyingxianglidechuanboyebuzaiyilaiyuchuantongshichangyingxiao，huozhetongguoxianliang、xiandingdefangshilaihongtuo，donghuadengyingshizuopindezhizuozengjialexindeyingxianglichuanbotujing。

erqie，paopaomatechengshileyuanzongjinglihujianyecengduiwaibiaoshi，paopaomatejianshechengshileyuanzhuyaoshixiangdazao“pinpaichaoshengdi”，leisiyuribendebaiselianrenqiaokeligongchang、jibuligongzuoshidesanyingzhisenmeishuguandeng。er“pinpaichaoshengdi”bujinshixianxiaxiaofeichangjingdejinjieban，gengshizhongduopinpairenzhizhenzhenggoujianheluodidebiyaoyihuan。

zheiyijucuojuefeidanyishujushangdetuokuan，ershizouxianggengshendeyonghujiazhihedutefenweiyingzao，goujianqineipianzhenzhengshuyupinpaizijidezhendi。

jinguan，yeyouxiaofeizhebiaoshi，ruyuanqianyijinghuafei150yuangoumaimenpiao，danruyuanhouhaiyougengduode150yuanzaidengzheziji。xiangbizuichudeqidaixinqing，xiaofeishuxingqiangyudailaidexinqitiyan。

danzhishaosiludakaile，paopaomatezhutileyuangengweitiehenianqingrendangxiaduiyushishang、kejihewenhuadengduoweiduqingxujiazhidezhuiqiu，shiyizhongnenggoujifarenmenxingqu、chuangzaohudonghechuandiwenhuadezaiti。

erqie，xianzaidepaopaomate，yuguoqutanlun“zhongguobandishini”shi，yijingdaweibutong。chenggongzouchuguomen，zaidongnanyashichangyipaoerhong，zaioumeishichangchuangchuyipiantiandepaopaomate，yijingkaishihedishiniyiyang，yongyougengweichunzhengdequanqiuxuetong。

huoxu，zhongguoban“dishini”yebushipaopaomatede“zhongdian”，paotongipyunyingdequanjiazhiliancaishi，jiangipyuqingxujiazhizhijielianjie，tongguogengfengfudexingshi。bijing，dangrenmendewuzhixuqiubiandechongzu，xiaofeimanzugandeyuantoujiubuzaishishiyongxing，ershiruheshixianjingshenfuzu。