文丨齐萌 冯建林

（本文摘自2024年11月10日《FOST专题报告》“增量化债政策解读与前景”，作者为FOST研究部齐萌、冯建林。界面新闻获授权发布。文章仅代表作者观点。）

jinliangnian，jingjiyunxingkunnanyusangezijinlianbuzhuanyouguan。yishifangqibumenzijinlianbuzhuanle，duoshufangqijinzhang，shaoshuchuxianduanlie，duici，dangjuzhengzaiquanlibaofangqirongzi。ershijuminbumenzijinlianbuzhuanle，juminnulicunqian、jianshaohuaqian，duici，dangjuzaijiangfangdaililv，jiadaduikunnanquntidezhichilidu。sanshidifangzhengfubumenzijinlianbuzhuanle，weici，dangjuzaiquanlituijinhuazhai。

mianduihuazhaigongzuodezhongzhongkunnanhezuli，10yue12ricaizhengbubuzhanglanfoanzaiguoxinbanxuanbu“niyicixingzengjiajiaodaguimozhaiwuxiane，zhihuandifangzhengfucunliangyinxingzhaiwu。”

11yue8ri，quanguorendachangweihuipizhunle《guowuyuanguanyutiqingshenyizengjiadifangzhengfuzhaiwuxianezhihuancunliangyinxingzhaiwudeyian》。dangtian，lanfoanzaiquanguorendachangweihuibangongtingxinwenfabuhuishangjieshaolejutifangan，qiyaodianruxia：

2023nianmo，jingguozhuyixiangmuzhenbie、zhujishenhe，quanguoyinxingzhaiwuyue14.3wanyiyuan。duizheixiezhaiwu，tongguosizhongbanfahuajie：

（1）从2024年开始，连续五年每年从新增地方政府专项债券中安排8000亿元，补充政府性基金财力，专门用于化债，累计可置换隐性债务4万亿元。

（2）这次一次性上调地方政府债务限额6万亿，分三年安排，2024-2026年每年2万亿元，支持地方用于置换各类隐性债务。

（3）2029年及以后年度到期的棚户区改造隐性债务2万亿元，仍按原合同偿还。

（4）上述三项政策协同发力，2028年之前，地方需消化的隐性债务总额从14.3万亿元大幅降至2.3万亿元，平均每年消化额从2.86万亿元减为4600亿元，不到原来的六分之一，化债压力大大减轻。地方依靠自身努力化解是完全可以做到。

lanfoanbiaoshi，zheicidafuzengjiadifangzhengfuzhaiwuxiane，biaozhizhehuazhaigongzuosiluzuolegenbenzhuanbian：yishicongguoqudeyingjichuzhixiangxianzaidezhudonghuajiezhuanbian，ershicongdianzhuangshipaileixiangzhengtixingchuxianzhuanbian，sanshicongyinxingzhai、fadingzhai“shuanggui”guanlixiangquanbuzhaiwuguifantoumingguanlizhuanbian，sishicongcezhongyufangfengxianxiangfangfengxian、cufazhanbingzhongzhuanbian。

womenrenwei，zongguanshiduonianhuazhaigongzuo，mubiaoshizhongshichediqinglihehuajieyinzhaifengxian，zheicigongbudefanganlidubijiaoda，duidangxiarendingdeyinzhaizuolejibendoudi。

yixia，womenjianyaotaolunyishangsixiangbanfa。

（1）caizhengbutidaodediyixiangbanfashi“meiniancongxinzengdifangzhengfuzhuanxiangzhaiquanzhonganpai8000yiyuan”，zheixianganpaiyinggaishiqunianmozuochude，jinnianxiangyingdexinzengzhuanxiangzhaiquanyijibenfaxingwanbi。shujuxianshi，2024nianfaxingdezhuanxiangzhaizhong，yueyou8430yiyuanshiyongyubuchongdifangzhengfucaili、weipilu“yianliangshu”deteshuxinzengzhuanxiangzhai，yinggaijiushizheixiehuazhaidezhuanxiangzhai。

（2）caizhengbutidaodedierxiangbanfashi“yicixingzengjiadifangzhengfuzhaiwuxiane6wanyiyuan，fensanniananpai，meinianliangwanyiyuan”。zheishizheicidezengliangzhengce，difangzhaiwuxianeshangdiaofududatifuhewomenyujide“dayue5wanyiyuan”。

womenyuji，2024niande2wanyiyuaneduyouwangkuaisuxiafa，11yuehe12yuefaxing。yangxingjiangyuyipeihejiangzhun0.5gebaifendian，shifangzijinyue1wanyiyuan，tongshi，yangxingjiangkaizhanmaiduanshinihuigouyue1wanyiyuan，youci，keyibaochiliudongxingdatipingwen。zaishifangzhangqiliudongxingdetongshi，yangxingjiangxiangyinghuilongduanqiliudongxing，jinxingfangzhangshouduancaozuo。

womenyuji，huazhaiedujiangxiangzhaiwujiaozhongdedifangqingxie。shouxianquebaomanzu12gezhongdianshengfendehuazhaixuqiu，ranhouzhongdianfuchi14haowenzhongtidaodezhongdianhuazhaiquyu，zuihouzhiyuanqitadiqu。

womenyuji，changhaiduixiangyouxianhoushunxu。youxianchanghaiyidaoqihejijiangdaoqideyinxingzhaiwu；ranhouduiyuqitakeyizhihuandezhaiwu，youxianzhihuanrongzichengbenjiaogaodebufenzhaiwu（rufeibiaozhaiwudeng），ranhouzaichanghaidirongzichengbenzhaiwu（ruzhaiquanheyinxingdaikuandeng），genbenmudezaiyukuaisujiangdipingjunrongzichengben，jianqingfuxiyali。

jiumingniankan，2wanyiyuanhuazhaidezhaiquanfaxingjiezoukeyishidangfensan，buguo，cong“jinzaofahuizhengcexiaoyong”dejiaodukan，womenyuji，xiangguanfazhaihehuazhaigongzuoyoukenengshidangqianzhi。

（3）caizhengbutidaodedisanxiangbanfashi“2029nianjiyihoudaoqidepenggaiyinzhai2wanyiyuanrenganyuanhetongchanghai。”zheibufenshianyuanjihuashishi，bushizengliangzhengce，daoshihou，anyuanhetongluoshi。

（4）caizhengbutidao，yishangsanxianghuazhaizhiwai，haisheng2.3wanyiyuanyinzhai，youdifangzhengfuzishennulihuajie，meinianhuazhai4600yiyuan。

womenrenwei，weilaijinian，jingjirengkenengjiansu，tudicaizhenghennanmingxianhaozhuan，difangzhengfuzishenhuazhairenghuimianlinzijinyali。zheizhongqingkuangxia，zhongyangzhengfuhegedizhengfuxuyaonulizengjiahuazhaizijinlaiyuan，zengjiageleifeishuishouru，zengjiashuishoushouru，tongshi，keyinuliyuzhaiquanrenxiediaojianshaozhaiwuyali。

（一）增加非税收入

zengjiafeishuishourudebanfahenduo，keyiyunxudifangjiangguodaogaizaoshoufei，keyipanhuocunliangzichan，keyituijinkuangchanziyuanyouchangshiyong，keyibianmaiyouzhizichandeng。

（1）国道收费

2021nianyilai，anhui、shanxi、gansu、hubei、jilin、shanxi、jiangsu、shandongjunfabuguoguodaoshoufeizhankaitongshoufeidegonggao。

congfalicengmiankan，guodaoshoufeisuiranyudazhongchangshixiangbei，danbingbuweifa，《shoufeigongluguanlitiaoli》dengfaguiyeweiguodaoshoufeitigonglefalvyiju，qizhongdijiutiaohedishibatiaotidao，fuheshoufeigongludejishudengjiheguimodegonglu，yousheng、zizhiqu、zhixiashirenminzhengfuanzhaobiaozhunshenchapizhunhou，keyijiansheshoufeizhan。

congguimokan，meiniangaosugongludetongxingfeishouruyuezai6000zhi7000yiyuan，muqianyierjigongludeshouruzonghebudao200yiyuan。ruguojiangguodaodeshoufeiguimotisheng，meinianhuoxukeyizengjia1000yiyuandedifangcaizhengshouru，zheiduihuazhaihuiyouyidingbangzhu。

（2）盘活存量资产

guanyudifangzhengfuruhepanhuocunliangzichandewenti，2022nian5yuefabude《guowuyuanbangongtingguanyujinyibupanhuocunliangzichankuodayouxiaotouzideyijian》（guobanfa〔2022〕19hao）zhongyoutiji。

keyongyupanhuodezichanzhuyaobaokuo：（1）cunliangguimojiaoda、dangqianshouyijiaohaohuozengzhangqianlijiaodadejichusheshixiangmuzichan，baokuojiaotong、shuili、qingjienengyuan、baozhangxingzulinzhufang、shuidianqiredengshizhengsheshi、shengtaihuanbao、chanyeyuanqu、cangchuwuliu、lvyou、xinxingjichusheshideng；（2）cunlianghegaikuojianyoujijiehedexiangmuzichan，baokuozonghejiaotongshuniugaizao、gongyeqiyetuichengjinyuandeng；（3）zhangqixianzhidanjuyoujiaodakaifaliyongjiazhidexiangmuzichan，baokuolaojiuchangfang、wenhuatiyuchangguanhexianzhitudideng，yijiguoyouqiyekaibandejiudian、canyin、liaoyangyuandengfeizhuyezichan。

panhuocunliangzichandefangshibaokuo：（1）tuidongjichusheshilingyubudongchantouzixintuojijin（reits）jiankangfazhan；（2）guifanyouxutuijinzhengfuheshehuizibenhezuo（ppp）；（3）jijituijinchanquanguifanjiaoyi；（4）fahuiguoyouzibentouzi、yunyinggongsigongnengzuoyong；（5）tansuocujinpanhuocunlianghegaikuojianyoujijiehe；6）wajuexianzhidixiaozichanjiazhi；（7）zhichijianbingzhongzudengqitapanhuofangshi。

womenrenwei，jiexialai，panhuocunliangzichangongzuojiangjiadalidu。weilaiwuniannei，cunliangzichanhuoxunengdailaiwanyiyuanjibiedecaizhengshouru。zheibufenshourushouxianyaobuzudifangcaizhengdangniandeshouzhiquekou，shengyubufenduiyudifangzhengfuyinxingzhaiwuhuajiegongzuoeryan，nengqidaoyidingzuoyong。

（3）kuangchanziyuanyouchangshiyong

zaimaidinanyichixudeqingkuangxia，tuixingkuangchanziyuanyouchangshiyongshiyigehelidexuanze。zheixiangzhiduyijianli10duonian，jiexialai，youkenenghuihuoqudegengduoshouru。

jinliangnian，guoyouziyuan（zichan）youchangshiyongshouruzhunianzengzhang，2023nian（yipilude28sheng）gongji12578yiyuan，tongbizengsuwei6.6%；chanquanzhuanrangshourudezengsujiaokuai，2023nian（28sheng）gongji830yiyuan，tongbizengsu91.7%。

（4）tuijintexujingyingxuke

jinliangnian，youguanbumenyimingqueyaoqiu，zhengfuheshehuizibenhezuo（ppp）jujiaoshiyongzhefufeixiangmu，quanbucaiqutexujingyingmoshi，xiangmushishijigoutongguogongkaijingzhengfangshiyifayiguixuanzetexujingyingzhe。womenrenwei，yixieyouzhidexiangmuweilaikeyijingjiafafangtexujingyingxuke，zheikeyixingchengyixieshouru。

（5）bianmaibufenyouzhizichan

jinnianlai，youyuzhaiwuyalijiaoda，yixiedifangzhengfukaishibianmaibufenyouzhizichan，yongyuchanghaizhaiwu，lirujianchishangshigongsigufendeng。2020nian12yue23ri，guizhoumaotaigonggaochengmaotaijituannitongguowuchanghuazhuanfangshijiangchiyoudeshangshigongsi5024wangugufen（zhanguizhoumaotaizongguben4%）huazhuanzhiguizhouguozi，yidangrishoupanjiasuan，zheibufenguquanjiazhiyue925yiyuan。jiezhi2020nian12yue23ri，guizhouguozijiqimugongsiguizhoujinkongsuochigufenzhanbiyijiangzhi0.96%，bannianshijianhejijianchiyue3817wangu，huandejin700yiyuan。

congguimokan，jushanghaizhengquanbaodebaodao，jiezhi2023nianmo，difangguozishangshigongsishizhida20.31wanyiyuan，zhanagushangshigongsizongshizhide21.81%。womenjiasheanzhaodifangguozi40-50%dechigubililaisuan，difangguozidechicangshizhiyuewei8-10wanyiyuan；ranhouzaijiashechushouqizhongde5%，difangzhengfuhuoketongguojianchibianxian4500yiyuanzuoyou，youwangduidifangzhengfuhuazhaiqidaoyidingdebuchongzuoyong。

（二）推进财税体制改革，拓展地方税源

caishuitizhigaigezhong，shichangzuiqidaideshixiaofeishuigaige，keyizengjiadifangzhengfushuiyuan，huanjiedifangcaizhengyali。jinnianyusuanbaogaozailunshucaizhenggaigegongzuoshi，mingquetidao“tuidongxiaofeishuigaige”。zaozai2019nian，guowuyuanyinfa《shishigengdaguimojianshuijiangfeihoudiaozhengzhongyangyudifangshouruhuafengaigetuijinfangan》，tichu“houyixiaofeishuizhengshouhuanjiebingwenbuxiahuadifang”。

“shisiwu”guihuahe2035nianyuanjingmubiaogangyaoyetichu，“diaozhengyouhuaxiaofeishuizhengshoufanweiheshuilv，tuijinzhengshouhuanjiehouyibingwenbuxiahuadifang”。

shujuxianshi，2023nian，xiaofeishuishouruguimoda1.61wanyiyuan。weilai，xiaofeishuizhuanjidifangzhihou，keyizengjiadifangcaili，zhulihuazhaigongzuo。

tongshi，dangjuzhengzaikaolvshidangkuodadifangshuiquan。7yue31ri，caizhengbufubuzhangwangdongweizaiguoxinbanxinwenfabuhuishangbiaoshi，“jinnianlai，zaihuanjingbaohushuifa、ziyuanshuifa、gengdizhanyongshuifadengdifangshuilifazhong，yifuyushengjidifangquedingjutishiyongshuilv、shuishoujianmiandengguanliquanxian。jinhou，zaizhongyangtongyilifaheshuizhongkaizhengquandejichushang，tansuoyanjiuzaidifangshuishuizhiyaosuqueding，yijijutishishishangfuyudifanggengdazizhuquan”。

womenrenwei，difangzhengfuzaishuishouguanlifangmiandequanxianjiangmingxiankuoda。jutieryan，wulunshizhengshuitiaojian，haishishiyongshuilv，huoshishuishoujianmiandenghuanjie，difangzhengfudejuecequanhehuayuquanjianggengda，youcidailaidegeshengshuishoushouruyehuichuxianmingxianfenhua。

yimeitanziyuanshuiweili，2024nian，shanxi、shanxi、neimenggudeyuankuangshuilvwei10%，xinjiang、ningxia、qinghaideyuankuangshuilvwei6%，heilongjiang、jilin、liaoning、beijing、hebei、henan、jiangsu、anhuidengdideyuankuangshuilvjinwei2%。youcilaikan，zaihuodelejiaodadezizhuquanhou，difangshengzhengfushedingdeshuilvbutong，kenengduiziyuanshuideshuishoushouruchanshengshubeideyingxiang。zaiguimofangmian，youyuzhongyangzhengfudefangquanfanweihedifangzhengfudejutidiaozhenglidubuqueding，zanshinanyilianghuagujishidangkuodadifangshuiquanduihuazhaideyingxiang。

lingwai，zhenduixinjingjideshuishouzhengceyeyoukenengchutai，biru，duishuzijingjizhengshui。jinxienian，xinjingjijiaokuaifazhan，danshi，duixinjingjideshuishouzhidumeiyounengjishiwanshanhegenjin，shidaozhishuishoushouruhecaizhengshourujiansudeyigeyuanyin。jiexialai，yaowanshanduixinjingjideshuishouzhidu，youliyuzengjiashuishoushouru。

（三）放宽打折兑付的范围

7yue，genjucailianshexiangguanbaodao，guangxiliuzhoushidongchengtouzikaifajituanyouxiangongsi（jiancheng“dongchengjituan”）yumouzulingongsiduocixieshanghou，shuangfangdachengruodongchengjituanzai6yue30riqianjieqingcunliangfeibiaozhaiwu，gaizulingongsitongyijiangbenjin8.5zhejieqingdewenjianxieyi。zaiguilinyinxingdedalizhichixia，dongchengjituandezhuanxiangzhichiyintuanleidaikuanyiyu6yue25riwanchengletoufang，dongchengjituanjiangcunliangfeibiaozhaiwuquanbuzhihuan，yucitongshi，gaizulingongsiyeduixianlechengnuo，jieqingledazhehoudecunliangbenjin。jingdongchengjituangusuan，gaibizhaiwuzhihuanhoujiangjianshaoyixingchengzhichuchengbenjin4630wanyuan。tongshi，tongguoyinxingzhongzhangqidaikuandezhihuan，youxiaoyouhualedongchengjituanzhaiwujiegou，jiangdilerongzichengben，bingweihouxufeibiaozhaiwuzhihuanqidaojijishifanzuoyong。

womenrenwei，feibiaodedazheduifuyijingchuxianzailegaofuzhaideguangxidiqu，weilaiyoukenenghuikuodadazheduifudezhutifanwei，zhubutuiguangdaoqitagaofuzhaidezhongdianshengfen，shenzhishiqitazhonggaofuzhaidediqu。

此外，目前打折兑付的资产类别仅限与非标类的资产，未来还可能蔓延到其他类别的资产。考虑到标准化债券的信息透明度较高、市场传播力和影响面更大，预计标准化债券的打折兑付概率较低，部分银行贷款出现打折兑付的概率仍存在。最后，本次打折兑付的对象是融资租赁公司，未来更多的市场主体kenengcanyudaodazheduifudexiangmuzhong，baokuoxintuo、simujijin、danbaogushi、jiazubangongsiyijibufenyinxingjigou。

womengusuan，zaihuazhairenwuzhong，xuyaochuzhidefeibiaozhaiwuguimoyuewei5-6wanyiyuan，ruguozheibufendezhaiwunenggouzaiyidingchengdushangdazheduifu，youwangjiangdicunliangzhaiwubenjinchangfuyali2000yiyuanzuoyou，tebieshibufengaozhaiwudiqudehuazhaiyaliyouwangdedaoyidingchengdudehuanjie。