文丨罗志恒（粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长）

shuishouzhiduhezhengcezhijieyingxiangqiyehejumindeqieshenliyi，quanqiuzhuyaojingjitidouzhuzhongtongguoshuishoujingzhengxiyinquanqiudekejizibenhegaoduanrencai。zishangshiji80niandaiyilai，meiguolijing4lunshuigai，zaijiangdibenguoshuifutongshiyinfalequanqiujingzhengxingjianshui。zhongguojinnianlaidalijianshuijiangfei，tuijinjingjigaozhiliangfazhan，qudelexianzhuchengji。bansuiquanqiuzhuyaojingjiticaizhengchizihezhengfuzhaiwubuduanchuangxingao、caizhengkechixuxingzaoshouyanzhongtiaozhan，quanqiujianshuilangchaoluoxiaweimu，“shuilvzhudijingzheng”zongtiquyujieshu。2021nianmeiguobaidengzhengfutichujiegouxingjiashuizhengce，2022niantuichu《tongzhangxuejianfaan》，2024nianchubaidengzhengfuzai《meiguolianbangzhengfu2025cainianyusuan》zhongtichuleyaoduifurenhedaqiyejiashui。danshi，telangpuzai2024nianmeiguodaxuanzhongshengchu，zaicitichudaguimojianshui，jianshuilangchaojuantuzhonglaiyijiquanqiumaoyimocazaidushengjidekenengxingzengda。

dangqianzhongmeishuizhiyouhebutong？hongguanshuifushugaoshudi？“telangpu2.0”shidaijijiangdaolai，zhongmeihongguanshuifuweilaizouxiangruhe？ruhezaibaozhangcaizhengkechixuyunxingdetiaojianxia，jiangdijuminjiqiyefudan？“shiwuwu”shiqidezhongguoshuizhigaigeyoujiangxianghechuqu？

一、中美税制比较

从税收制度看，美国的税收体系分为联邦、州、地方三个独立层级，分别对各层级的议会和选民负责，不存在上下级关系；中国1994年建立起“分税制”的财政管理体制，虽然中央和地方按照税种划分收入，分为中央税、地方税和共享税，但税权高度集中，税收立法权统一于中央，地方的税收管理权限较为有限。zhongmeiliangguodeshuizhongleibiechayijiaoda，meiguomeiyouzengzhishui，erzengzhishuishizhongguodediyidashuizhong。shehuibaoxianzaimeiguoyishuidexingshizhengshou，erzaizhongguoyifeidexingshishouqu，muqianyicongshebaobumengaiyoushuiwubumenzhengshou。

从税制结构看，美国以直接税为主，主要向个人征税，调节收入分配的功能更强。中国以间接税为主，有利于筹集财政收入，主要由企业纳税，“顺周期”特征显著。2023nianmeiguodezhijieshuizhanbiwei73.3%，qizhonggerensuodeshuiheshebaoshuishizhuyaolaiyuan，fenbiezhanmeiguoshuishoude39.6%he25.3%。meiguolianbangzhengfuyigerensuodeshuiheshebaoshuiweizhu，zhouzhengfuyixiaoshoushuihegerensuodeshuiweizhu，erdifangzhengfuyifangchanshuiweizhu。zhongguocezhongxiangqiyezhengshui，shuizhijiegouyizengzhishui、qiyesuodeshuihexiaofeishuiweizhu。2023nian，zhongguobachengzuoyoudeshuishoudoushiyiqiyeweizhengshuiduixiang，baokuozengzhishui（39.0%）、qiyesuodeshui（22.7%）、xiaofeishui（9.5%）deng。youyugerensuodeshuifugaiderenqunjiaoshaoyijijibenkouchuechixutigao，zhongguogerensuodeshuizhanbijiaodi，2023nianjinwei8.2%。

二、中美宏观税负比较：四大口径及未来走向

zhongguoxiao、zhong、dakoujingdehongguanshuifujinnianlaizongtichengxiajiangqushiqiediyumeiguo，zhuyaoshiyinweizhongguoshishilejiaozhangshijiandedaguimojianshuijiangfei；quankoujingdehongguanshuifu（hantudichurangshouru）2022nianyumeiguojibenxiangdang，dan2023nianshuifushuipinglvegaoyumeiguo，zhuyaoshiyinwei2023nianmeiguoyouyugerensuodeshuijianshoujiaoduoqiemingyigdpzengzhangjiaokuai，hongguanshuifudafuxiajiang，erzhongguohongguanshuifuxiangjiao2022nianzongtiwending。

“telangpu2.0”shiqi，telangpushangtaihoujiangcaiqujianshuijucuo，youkenengzaiduyinfaguojishuishouzhudijingzhengcongerjiadawoguojianshuiyali，danyingxiangchengdukenengbijiaoyouxian；woguoweilaihongguanshuifudezoushigengduodiqujueyuguoneijingjihuifuqingkuang（youqishifangdichanshichangxingshi）hecaizhengkongjian。

xuyaozhichudeshi，woguodangqianhongguanshuifuyichuyujiaodishuiping，weilaiyingyiwendinghongguanshuifuweizhuyaofangxiang。

1）小口径宏观税负，即用不包含社保税（费）的税收收入除以GDP，自2013年以来，中国小口径宏观税负持续低于美国。2023nianzhongguodexiaokoujinghongguanshuifushuipingdiyumeiguo5.1gebaifendian。zaijinglichixudedaguimojianshuijiangfeihou，zhongguo2023nianxiaokoujinghongguanshuifuyousuofandan；danmeiguoyouyugerensuodeshuijianshoujiaoduo、fenmuduanmingyigdpzengzhangjiaokuaidengyuanyin，2023nianxiaokoujinghongguanshuifujiao2022nianxiajiangle2.4gebaifendian，jieshule2019nianyilaideshangxingtaishi。

2）中口径宏观税负包括税收收入和社会保险税（费）收入，近年来中国中口径宏观税负水平始终低于美国。2023nianzhongguozhongkoujingshuifushuipingwei21.0%，bi2022nianxiaofutigaole0.9gebaifendian，meiguozhongkoujinghongguanshuifujiao2022nianyousuohuiluo，wei26.0%。zhongkoujingxia，meiguohongguanshuifuyuzhongguohongguanshuifudechayiyousuoshouzhai。

3）大口径宏观税负包含税收收入、社会保险费（税），以及除土地出让收入以外的其他政府收入（剔除重复计算部分）。2019年及之前美国大口径宏观税负水平与中国基本相当，但2020年以来，美国大口径宏观税负超过中国。2023nian，zhongguoyibangonggongyusuanzhongdefeishuishouruzhanbiwei16.4%；dakoujinghongguanshuifuzhong，feishuishouru（baokuoyibangonggongyusuanzhongdefeishuishouru、chutudichurangshouruyiwaidezhengfuxingjijinyusuanshouru、guoyouzibenjingyingyusuanshouru、shehuibaoxianjijinyusuanshouru）debizhongwei44.3%。tongqimeiguodefeishuishouruzhancaizhengshourubizhongjinwei4.9%。xiangjiaoyu2015—2020nianqijiandezhangqixiaxingqushi，jinnianlaizhongguodakoujinghongguanshuifuchengxianxiaofubodongdanquyuwendingdetaishi：2021nianxiaofutaishenghou，2022nianduanzanxiajiangzhi24.9%，2023nianxiaofuhuishengzhi25.8%。2023nian，meiguodakoujinghongguanshuifuhuiluozhi27.4%，renggaoyuzhongguodakoujinghongguanshuifu1.6gebaifendian。

4）中国全口径的政府收入包括一般公共预算收入、政府性基金预算收入、国有资本经营预算收入以及社会保险基金预算收入，但需剔除一般公共预算对社会保险基金预算的补贴部分。2023nian，zhongguoquankoujinghongguanshuifuwei30.4%，yu2022nianjibenchiping；danyouyumeiguo2023niandakoujinghongguanshuifuxiajiangle2.9gebaifendian，zhongguohongguanshuifugaoyumeiguo3gebaifendian。

5）未来变化：美国方面，特朗普上台后将逐步实施其政策主张，主要包括对内减税、对外加征关税，未来美国宏观税负继续下行的可能性较大。dantelangpujianshuizhengceshouzhiyulianbangzhengfudecaizhengkongjian，hongguanshuifudafuxiajiangjiangtiaozhanmeiguocaizhengkechixuxing。congdangqianhongguanshuifushuipingkan，2023nianmeiguohongguanshuifuyijingjiejin2018nian（“telangpu1.0”shidaijianshuizhengcemijichutaishiqi）deshuiping，xiao、zhong、dakoujingdehongguanshuifufenbiejinbi2018niangao0.9、0.8he0.04gebaifendian。

我国未来宏观税负的走势更多地取决于国内经济恢复情况（尤其是房地产市场形势）和财政空间。yifangmian，zaifangdichanshichangshendudiaozhengshiqi，tudichurangshouruduanqineinanyihuifu，woguoquankoujinghongguanshuifukenengjixuxiaxing。lingyifangmian，ruoguoneijingjihuifubujiyuqi，youqishitelangpushangtaihouduihuajiazhengguanshui，zhongguochukoushouzubingtuoleizhongguojingjizengzhang，xuyaojiadacaizhengzhengceliduyitizhenjingji，duanqineihongguanshuifukenenghuiyousuoxiajiang。

三、中国小、中、大口径的宏观税负均持续低于美国，但全口径宏观税负略高于美国；中国企业税负感较重的原因：间接税占比高，叠加综合经营成本偏高

小、中、大口径的中国宏观税负均低于美国，但企业及居民感知的宏观税负依然偏重。hongguanshuifugandegaodiqujueyuhongguanshuifushuipingjiqiyugonggongfuwushuipingdepipeichengdu，yuhongguanshuifubenshenchengzhengbi，yugonggongfuwushuipingchengfanbi。ruguoqiyehegerenganzhidaodegonggongfuwushuipingjiaogao，zehongguanshuifuganyuedi。

我国企业税负感重的主要原因有：一是zaijianjieshuiweizhudeshuizhijiegoubeijingxia，qiyeweizhuyaodenashuizhuti。yizengzhishuiweili，suiranzengzhishuidezuizhongfushuirenshixiaofeizhe，danqiyeshizhijienashuiren；bufenzengzhishuideshuifunanyiwanquanzhuanjiachuqu，rengyouxiangdangshuliangqiyedezengzhishuiliudishuiebingbunengzaidangqihuodetuishui，zhanyongleqiyedezijin。

二是qiyezonghejingyingchengbenjiaogao，baokuoqiyechengdandeshehuibaoxianfeiyongjiaoduo、gezhongfeishuixingshidefeiyongjinnianlaiyousuoshangsheng、nengyuandengjichujingyingchengbenjiaogaodeng，bufendiquzaicaizhengxingshijinpinghengxiadeqingkuangxiacunzai“shuibugou，feilaicou”dengehuayingshanghuanjingdexianxiang。

三是shehuibaozhangyugonggongfuwushuipingyujuminqidairengyouchaju，caizhengzhichujiegouyoudaijinyibuyouhua、zhichuxiaolvyoudaijinyibutigao。

1）间接税为主的税制结构导致大量税收由企业缴纳。zhongguoshuishounashuirenyiqiyeweizhu，meiguoshuishounashuirenyigerenweizhu。2023nianzhongguodezengzhishui、xiaofeishuiyuqiyesuodeshuizhihezhanshuishoushourubizhongwei71.2%，ermeiguodeqiyesuodeshuiheshebaoshuishouruzhanmeiguoshuishoushourudebizhongwei33.7%。

2）中国企业负担的行政收费和社会保险费高于美国。yishizhongguoqiyexuyaojiaonagezhongxingzhengshoufeihezuoweilaodongchengbendeshehuibaoxianfei，ermeiguoqiyezhixujiaonaqiyesuodeshuihejiaodideshehuibaoxianshui。ershiwoguoqiyemianlinzhebufenziranlongduanxingyedaozhidexiangduipiangaodejichuxingjingyingchengben。2023nian，woguotianranqichengbenpingjunweimeiguode5.4bei；2024nian11yue，woguoqiyouchengbenweimeiguode1.3bei。

3）税收在“用之于民”方面以及社会保障水平与居民期待有差距。zhongguodezhengfuzhichujiegoujinnianlaiyoulemingxianyouhua，zhubucongjijianzhuanxiangminshengzhichu。2023nian，zhongguoyibangonggongyusuanzhichuzhongjiaoyu、yiliao、shebaohezhufangbaozhangzhichuzhanbiwei40.7%，jiao2013niantigaole5.6gebaifendian；danshiminshengzhichuzhanbiheshehuibaozhangshuipingyujumindeqidairengyouchaju。

四、建议：稳定宏观税负，推动减税降费从数量规模型转向效率效果型，中长期推动税制改革

对于一个大国而言，宏观税负不是越高越好，但也不是越低越好。有必要转变政府职能、理顺政府与市场的关系、明确有限责任政府，否则宏观税负的下行就意味着赤字和债务的攀升。近年来减税降费的效果显著，但是边际效应递减，未来要从数量规模型减税降费转向更加精准的效率效果型减税降费。

weilaicaizhengxingshizongtirengjiangchuyujinpinghengtaishi，shouzhimaodunhaikenengjieduanxingjiaju。suizhezhongguochanyejiegoubianhua，gongyejingjixiangfuwuyejingjiheshuzijingjishidaizhuanbian，yuanlaidecaishuitizhiyaozuochushiyingxingdiaozheng，haiyaofuwuyulvsefazhan、yingduilaolinghua、tuidongkejichuangxin、goujianxinfazhangeju、tongchoufazhanheanquandengfangmian。

一是稳定宏观税负，落实和完善既有减税降费政策，推动减税降费从数量规模型转向效率效果型，保障财政可持续性。xuanzeduiputongjuminyingxiangbuda、danyouliyutuidonglvsefazhan、suoxiaopinfuchajudeshuizhongjinxingjiegouxingdiaozheng；wendinghongguanshuifuyaoyuhongguanjingjizhilixiangjiehe，kaolvdaodangqianyaojinyibugongguhongguanjingjihuishengxianghaodetaishi，hongguanshuifukeyizaiduanqineilvejiang，danbukedafuxiajiang，duanqihongguanshuifuxiajiangzaochengdeshouzhiquekoukeyouzhongyangfaxingguozhailaimibu；jiaqiangshuifazhixingyueshu，yanjindifangzaizhichuyalixiaweifaweiguizhengshou“guotoushui”。

二是深化税收制度改革，完善税收体系。qiyi，jijituidongzengzhishuilifa，qinglibubiyaoshuishouyouhuizhengce，jianhuazengzhishuishuizhi，tigaoshuishouzhongxing。qier，tuijingerensuodeshuigaige，congzongheyufenleixiangjiehezouxiangchedidezonghekezheng，tongyizibenyulaodongsuodedeshuilv，jiaqiangduigaoshoururenqunyouqishizhibodaihuodengxinjingjixingtaidegeshuizhengguanlidu。qisan，jixutuijinxiaofeishui、ziyuanshui、huanbaoshuikuowei，chongfenfahuishuishoubaohuhuanjing、cujinlvsefazhandezuoyong。qisi，chixuyouhuacujinqiyechuangxindeshuishouyouhuizhengce，jinyibujifaweiguanzhutichuangxindongli。qiwu，yanjiujianliyushuzijingjihefuwuyejingjishidaixiangpipeidecaizhengshuishoutixi，qianghuashuzijingjishidaixiadeshuishouzhengguan，jianshaoshuishouliushi。

三是优化财政收入结构，划转部分国有资产充实社保基金的前提下，适度降低企业社保费负担，研究探索社保费改税，并进一步规范非税收入，坚决遏制“远洋捕捞”式罚没。

(报告全文发于作者微信公号“粤开志恒宏观”。原标题《中美税制及税负比较（2024）》。文章仅代表作者观点。责编邮箱：yanguihua@jiemian.com。）