wenshuzhangtao、lusiyuan（gongzhizhongguojiansheyinxingjinrongshichangbu，jindaibiaogerenguandian）

jinnian6yue，yangxingdui“zhichixingdehuobizhengcelichang”jiayimingqueyuchanshu，zhihouyangxingtongguodongyonghechuangshezongliang、jiegouxingzhengcegongjushishilezuheshidediaokong，9yuexiaxunyoujinyibuchongshile“yilanzizengzhangzhengce”，xiangyingyedailaileyidingzhengcexiaoguo。

liru，xiaofeichuxianlehuinuan，yishangpinweizhudeshehuilingshouzengfunianneishoucihuisheng，youshangyuemode3.3%huishengzhi3.5%，danfuwulingshoutongbizengsuhaizaixiahua，10yueyoujiangle0.2%，zhi6.5%。jiuyeshichangchuxiangaishan，daibiaopingjungongzishuipingdehexincpi，tongbizhangfuhuisheng0.1%zhi0.2%，zhizaoyeyufuwuyedejiuyejingqizhibiaojunzhihuisheng0.65zhi47.1。congzheisileiyuweiguanjingjizuitiejindehongguanshujudebianhualaikan，zaizhengcetuidongxia，jingjichuxianhuinuanjixiang，buguo“nuandu”youxian。

yujingjihuinuanduiying，huobigongyingzhibiaoyeyoulegaishan，daibiaoqiyejingyingxingzijindem1jiangfuchuxiannianneishoucishouzhai，you-7.4%shouzhaizhi-6.1%；m2zengfuzeshishige4geyuehou，zaiduhuishengzhi7%yishang，zhi7.5%。buguoshoujingjihuinuan“nuandu”youxianyingxiang，huobigongjixiufubusuanqiangjing，youqishicongqiyehejumindecunkuanqingkuanglaikan，weiguanyuqibingweidedaogenbenxingniuzhuan。

liru，anzhaonianhuakoujing，jiezhi10yuemo，qiyehuoqicunkuannianzengguimowei-5.2wanyi，yijinglianxu17geyuexiajiang，tongqiqiyedingqicunkuannianzengguimowei2.8wanyi，jiaonianchudeshuipingyousuotigao，xianshichuqiyezhutikuochongjingyingxingzijindexinxinyouxian。jumindehuoqihedingqicunkuannianzengguimojinhubaochibubian，fenbiewendingzai1.6wanyiyu12.5wanyideshuiping，fanyingchujumindejingjihuodongredushangweimingxianshangsheng。　

鉴于企业、居民的经济活动热度仍处低迷状态，社融口径下的非政府年融资规模持续下降，由去年同期的26万亿降至21万亿，相应社融需求只能依赖政府部门。截至10月末，政府部门年融资规模已连续4个月超过10万亿，与此同时，政府部门的融资更加依赖中央政府，目前政府部门年融资中，近一半是中央政府的融资（5.2万亿），而去年同期8.6万亿的政府部门年融资中，中央政府的融资是3.6万亿。

mianduishehuirongziyuelaiyueyilaizhongyangzhengfurongziladongdejumian，ruhexingshi“zhichixingzhengcelichang”jiuchengweijinhouhuobizhengceyaokaolvdeshiqing。

ruguoanzhaommtlilun，yangxingderenwuhenjiandan，zhichihaozhongyangzhengfurongzijike。raner，jianyummtcunzaizhuduomingxianquexian，muqiangaililunshangbujubeizaiciluodidekeneng，duiyuyangxingeryan，baozhengzhengfubumenrongziyejiunanyichengweizhichixingzhengcelichangdelizudian，zhengcezhongxinhaishichixuxiufuqiyehejumindejingjihuoyuedu，erhuobizhengceyirangengduochengdanzongliangxinghongguandiaokongzhineng，yincihuobizhengcelizudianyinggengweicezhongqiyeduan。

xianzaidezhengcenandianjiushiruhecezhongqiyeduandexiufu，yinweijinyibujiangdiqiyerongzichengbendetujingyijingbeishangyeyinxingjididejingxichazuduan——mingyililvzaijiangdekongjianshifenyouxian，xianzaiyaoxiangjianqingqiyefudan，zhinengjiangdiqiyedeshijirongzichengben，ercizequjueyutongsuoyalinengfouchixuhuanjie，duici，huobizhengcede“shengzi”tezhengzhiyueleyangxingdezuoyong，zhuduofadaguojiadeshijianjingyanyezhengming“tigaohuobigongjihennanbaituotongsuokunjing”。erzhongduanxiaofeizuinengyingxiangwujia，suoyizhichixinghuobizhengcelichangdeguanjianjiushijumindexiaofeiyuqigaishan，muqiangaishanjuminxiaofeiyuqizuiyouxiaodezhengcezaicaizheng，zheijiushejichaoguo10wanyidezhengfurongzidezijinyongtu，youqishizaiminsheng、gaishanjuminshouruyuqidengfangmiandetouru。

（文章仅代表作者观点。责编邮箱：yanguihua@jiemian.com。）