文丨孟宝乐

yanxia，julinianzhongshouguanbuzu50tian，2024nianyijiejinweisheng，gedijingjizoushiruhe?

11yue7ri，jinanshifabu2024nianqiansanjiduquxianzhuyaojingjishuju，15quxian(gongnengqu)2024nianjingji“sanjibao”shujujunyichulu。

qizhong，shizhongqudebiaoxianyouweiliangyan。qiansanjidu，shizhongqudiqushengchanzongzhitupoqianyiyuan，yi1078.9yiyuanwenjuquanshidisanwei，zengsuchaoguo6%。

yigechengqudeshengchanzongzhihegdpzengsu，bujinfanyinglejingjihuodongderedu，gengshiqifazhansududezhiguantixian。

shujushizuihaodemingzheng，yigetufeimengjin、zhengzhengrishangdeshizhongxingxiangyueranyanqian。

qiansanjidu，shizhongqubufuzhongwangyueshangjingjifazhanxintaijie，mairujiasujueqi、kuayueshigaozhiliangfazhandezhanxinjieduan。

“三季报”释放哪些信号？

qiansanjidugdptupoqianyi，duishizhongquyiweizheshenme？

zheibuzhishijingjizengzhangguochengzhongdeyigeputongshuzi，biaozhizheshizhongquzhengtishilihequyujingzhenglidadaoxindeliangji，yeyiweizheshizhongquchanyetixigengjiawanzheng、chanyeshengtaigengjiajianquan。

yiciweiyituo，shizhongqudechengshiyingxiangli、fushedaidongli、jijuziyuannenglidoujiangshixianzhidefeiyue，jinernenggoufuhuahepeiyugengduoxinchanyexingtaibingmanzugengduoyuanshichangxuqiu，zheiwuyijiangweiweilaijingjifazhantigonggengqiangzhicheng。

ercongshizhongqujiaochude2024nianqiansanjiduchengjidanlaikan，xionghoudegongyeshili，wuyishizhichengqigdpguoqianyideguanjianyinsuzhiyi。

shujuxianshi，qiansanjidu，shizhongqugongyezengjiazhiladonggdpzengzhang2.2gebaifendian，gongxianlvdadao37.19%。

qizhong，guimoyishanggongyeqiyeleijiwanchengchanzhi125.5yiyuan，tongbizengzhang15%；guimoyishanggongyezengjiazhileijizengzhang18.6%，weiliequanshidier，chaochuquanshipingjunshuiping13.4gebaifendian。

tongshi，zhongdianxingyeladongmingxian。guishangzhizaoyeleijiwanchengchanzhi89.1yiyuan，tongbizengzhang15.5%；guishangdianli、reli、ranqijishuideshengchanhegongyingyeleijiwanchengchanzhi36.4yiyuan，tongbizengzhang13.8%。

duoxiangzhibiaoweijuquanshiqianlie，zhongdianxingyeladongmingxian，shizhongquqiansanjidudebiaoxiankeyiyongqiangshizengzhanglaixingrong。

erjingjizhongxinnengbunengwen，guanjiankandierchanye。qiansanjidu，shizhongqudierchanyezengjiazhiwei282.5yiyuan，leijitongbizengzhang12.5%，chengjitongyangweiliequanshidierwei。

zuoweijinandezhongxinchengqu，shizhongquzhiyuquanshijingjifazhandetuidongzuoyong，yufaburongxiaoqu。

zhaoshangyinzishiduiwaikaifangdeshijinshi，yeshizhulidifangjingjishixiangaozhiliangfazhandezhongyaoyinqing。qiansanjidu，shizhongquzhaoshangyinzigongzuoqudejinnianlaijieduanxingzuihaochengji，chengxianchuxiaosujianju、liangzhiqishengdelianghaoyunxingtaishi——

1—9yue，shizhongqushangbaowaizizongliang1.5923yimeiyuan，duiquanshigongxianlvzhanbiyue12.5%，shijishiyongwaizizongliangpaimingquanshidier。

qizhong，gaojishuchanyewaizidaowei8225wanmeiyuan，zhanquanbudaozizongliangde51.6%，daozizongliangpaimingquanshidiyi。zaiquanshizhaoqiangyinyouxiangmukuzhong，shizhongquruxuanxiangmu30ge，daozilvpaimingquanshidiwu。

liyongwaizizengsuquanshilingxian、gaojishuchanyezengshiqiangjing、chanyexiangmubuduanluodi……qiansanjidu，shizhongquzhanxianchuqiangdadejingjirenxing，youliwenzhulewaizijibenpan，jiaochuleyifenkequankediandedajuan。

跑赢大盘背后的支撑力

zaijingjixingshijiasubianhuadedangxia，shizhongququdedechengjishuweibuyi。

dangqian，shizhongquzhengquanmianxianqi“ercichuangye”derechao，gaobiaozhunmouhuadazaozhongyanghuoliqu、zhongyangshangbuqu、shandongnengyuanhulianwangchanyejijuqusandazhanlve，weichengshifazhandailailenandedefazhanjiyu、shidaijiyu。

muqian，zhongyanghuoliqu、zhongyangshangbuquyishangshengweishijizhanlve，shandongnengyuanhulianwangchanyejijuquxianhouruxuanshandongshengdierpizhanlvexingxinxingchanyejiqunheshandongshengtesechanyejiqun，shiquanshengweiyihuodeshuangshengjizhanlvedechanyejiqun。

bujinruci，shizhongquweiraoxiandaijinrong、doushigongye、shuzijingji、nengyuanhulian、wenhuashangmaowudazhudaochanye，yichanyegaoduanhua、zhinenghua、lvsehuaweifazhanmubiao，dalishishilianzhangzhi，jiakuaiqianglongtou、tuoliantiao、zhuangjiqun，zhelidazaojuyoujiaoqiangjingzhengliheyingxianglideyoushichanyejiqun。

jutilaikan，shizhongquzhongdiandazaoxiandaijinrong、xinyidaixinxijishu、xianjindianwang、nengyuanchuyunxiaoshou、dianlishebeiyudianlidianzi、xinnengyuanqiche、wenhuayuchubanchuanmei、yiyao(xie)yuyiliaokangyang、xiandaijianzhu、jiankangshipinyucanyinfuwudeng“shidachanyelianqun”。

xuanzhunchanyesaidao，yi“lianshifazhan”jihuojubianxiaoying，shizhongqudechanyegaozhiliangfazhanwenjianqishi。

liru，zaidoushigongyefangmian，quanqu83jiaguimoyishanggongyeqiye，hangaileqichezhizao、dianlizhuangbei、dianqireshui、jiancaishengchan、jixiezhizaodengzhongdianxingye。

zaishuzijingjifangmian，shizhongqujiyouliantong、yidong、tietasandatongxinqiyeshengshiliangjizongbu，yeyouguojiadaxuekejiyuan、shandongshuzijingjichanyeyuan、kechuangdasha、weilaiyungudengsheng、shijiyuanquzaiti，jijulealibaba、kedaxunfei、shangtangkeji、donghuaruanjiandengyipishuzijingjilongtouqiyehezhongdianshuziqiye。

zainengyuanhulianfangmian，1-9yue，nengyuanhulianwangchanyeyijijuqiye235jia，quankoujingchanyeguimoda3160.1yiyuan，tongbizengzhang11.5%

zairujindeshizhongqu，meiyigexifensaidaodouzaishifangchupengboshengjiyuwangshenghuoli。

zhideyitideshi，zaiyoushichanyebuduanhuanfaxinhuolizhishi，shizhongqujiakuaiqiangzhanxinxingchanyelanhai。

liru，zairengongzhinenglingyu，dazaojiqirenchanyejiqun。zaidianlizhanlvexingxinxingchanyelingyu，zhongdianfazhanxinxingdianlixitongdengliudachanye，xingchengshandongdianlizhanxinchanyejiqun。zaiweilaijiankanglingyu，yiguoyaokonggu、shandongrenminyaoye、jingdongdayaofang、shandongdaxuechuangxinyaowuyanjiuyuanweizhicheng，goujian“yi、yao、jian、yang”yitihua、xianshangxianxiaxiangjiehedeweilaijiankangchanyetixi。

zhanwangweilai，suizhechanyeshengtaiyouhua、zhaoshangyinzikuoda、zhongdaxiangmutuijindenggongzuodechixushenru，zongheshiliyufaqiangdadeshizhongqu，jiangdakaigengweiguangkuodefazhankongjianhechanyexiezuokongjian，wei“qiangshenghui”jianshechengqiyipiantian，gongxiangengduoliliang。