文 | 增长黑盒Growthbox  leren.lin

编辑 | 邹小困

ruguoyaoyongyijuhualaigaikuoxingbakejinxienianlaidechujing，neijiushi“zengzhangfalile，zhuanqiannengliyeburucongqianle”。

tebieshi10yuediganggongbude2024cainiandeshuju，sihuzaiyicijiashenlezheiyangdechujing：[1]

quannianyingshouwei361.76yimeiyuan，tongbiweizeng0.62%；q4yingshouwei90.74yimeiyuan，tongbixiajiang3.14%

quannianjinglirunwei37.64yimeiyuan，tongbijianshao8.75%

q4quanqiutongdianxiaoshouexiajiangle7%，zhongguodetongdianxiaoshouexiajiangle14%

zhongguoshichangdeyingshouwei29.58yimeiyuan，tongbixiajiang1.4%

xingbakedeweijiganbushixianzaicaichuxiande，duanqineideshujuxianranhaibugouzhiguan，neimewomenkeyibashijianzhouqilazhang，guanzhulianggezuiqianxian、zuijichu、zuizhengtihuadezhibiao：

guoqudeshinianli，chule2021nianchudifandanshide23.6%zhiwai，qiyunianfendeshouruzengsuyuanbuji2010niandaiyiqian。

zaiheitianededajizhihou，xingbakezhijinmeiyouhuifudaoyiqiandeyinglishuiping。

congjinqishujulaikan，duiyuxingbakezhengtide“buxingjingyu”，zhongguoqude“gongxian”sihuburongxiaoshi，zaizhongguokafeipinpaijizeng、shichangchaoqiang“neijuan”xia，xingbakequeshiyemeifadushanqishen。

buguo，jiaolvbuandexingbakeyizhizaiduofangweixunzhaoxintupo，birubianjiequcan、iplianming、xinpinyanfa、daodiantiyan、shuzihua，yijixiachentuodian。

zheixiemosuohegaijincengjixingbakedailaileduanzandeyejihuinuan，2023q4chuangxiajingshourulishixingao，tongbizengzhang11.4%，jinglirun12.19yimeiyuan，tongbizengzhang38.8%。[1]

dannengfourangxingbakezaizhongguoshichangzhanghongxiaqu，muqianrengrancunyi。weileshitunongqingzheigeyiwen，benwenjiangcongyixia3gejiaodujinxingyanjiu：

xingbakeweishenme“shichong”le？

yuanyoudezhanlvezaixiachenshichangnengshiyongma？

ruhepinghengdangxiadejiagezhanyuxingbakededisankongjian、kafeiwenhuadeng“hongdaxushi”？

1 既要又要的背后，星巴克在中国进退两难

zida1999nianjinruzhongguoshichangqi，xingbakede“touhaojiaoyi”zuolejin20nian。

jishiyigetianbushichangkongbaidejiaose，youshikafeishichangjiaoyudezaoqijideliyizhe，suoyi，“hongdaxushi”yizhidoushixingbakejianchihexinfengdezhanlve，zuidianxingdejiushizhuda“disankongjian”kafeishequheyonggaopinzhikafeichuandichudekafeiwenhua。

ranerjinjinian，ruixinghekudi，bazhongguokafeidejiagedaxialaile。jinguanruixingzai2020nianzaoyulecaiwuzaojiadengzhongdacuozhe，danqikuaisudefuchuhefandan，zuyizhengmingzhongguodekafeishichangyijingbianle。

junierseniq《2024zhongguoxiaofeizhezhanwang》diaoyan，yu2023nianchudiaoyanxiangbi，xiaofeizheduijiageminganduzhengtishangsheng，zaiyidijiadexiaofeizhezhanbicong20%shangshengzhi35%；kanzhongxingjiabi、duopingtaibijiadexiaofeizhezhanbicong28%shangshengwei30%，erxiaofeiziyou、zhuiqiujinjiejiazhidexiaofeizhezhengtizhanbicong52%xiajiangzhi35%。[2]

zhongguolingshouyeyijingjinru“xingjiabi”“zhijiabi”shidai，guijiadexingbakeyulengyejiubuzuweiqi。

genghekuang，gongjiduande“sisha”yijingjinrulenext level。zi2023nianjiagezhandaxiang，ruixingkafeixuanbuzaiquanguo1wan+mendianjiangzhangqizhixing9.9yuanyouhuihuodong，kudikafeishouxicelveguanliyingbobiaoshigongsizuohaole“quanchang9.9yuancuxiao”3niandezhunbei。qitakafeipinpaiyefenfengenjin。

zongjieyixiajiushi：xuqiuduan，xiaofeizheduijiagegengjiamingan，gengqingxiangyuxuanzexingjiabigaodechanpin；gongjiduan，daliangpinpaiyongrukafeishichang，qiezhengmiancanyujiagejingzheng。

neimeduiyuxingbakelaishuo，chujingjiubiandejiannanle。

yifangmian，xingbakemingbaizijiwufazhishenyujiagezhanwai，bixutuichudijiadesku，duikangqitapinpaiduishichangfenedecanshi，tongshimiaozhunguangkuodexiachenshichang，heqitapinpaiqiangzhandipan；

lingyifangmian，xingbakeyoubuxiangfangqizijiyuanyoude“hongdaxushi”，xiangsishoucengjingyinyiweihaode“disankongjian”。

yushi，womenbiankeyikuijianyigemaodundejiangju：goujian“hongdaxushi”xuyaodaliangchengben，zhuzhongkongjiantiyandedadianshuyuzhongzichanmoshi，zaizhouqibodongshirongyishoudaojiaodayingxiang，danyaoqiangzhanshichangjiubixuzaijiageshangzuochutuoxie，lirunhepinpaijidiaobirandadazhekou。

huanjuhuashuo，dakongjian、gaokaweidemianzi，hegaochengben、dilirundeliziwufajiande。

yinglizaoxueyu“hongdaxushi”depinghengdianqueshibutaihaobawo，yanxia，xingbakesihuzhengxianzai“jiyaoyouyao”denizhaozhongjintuiliangnan。

danzaidadekunnanyebixuyingzhetoupimiandui，yinweixingbakeceoshuercicengmingquebiaoshi，2025nianzhongguojiangchaoguomeiguochengweixingbakezuidashichang，wuyongzhiyi，zhongguoshichangyejibiaoxianduixingbakezongticaibaodeyingxiangshijudade。

2 市场消费分级，下沉恐难以复制过去的成功

2.1 冲向县城，以价换量

hongguanlaikan，shichangyiranyou9.9yuankafeipeiyu，danxiaofeifenjibiranhuifenliechubutongxuqiu，suoyixingbakejianchizai“hongdaxushi”celvebubiandejichushangzouxiachenluxian，benzhishirangxiachenshichangtiyangaoduankafeiwenhua，congerjinliangbikaijiagezhandejizhonghuoli。

jinnian3yue，xingbakechuangshirenhuohuade·shuercizaifangwenzhongguoqijiancengqiangdiao，xingbakebingbudasuancanyujiagezhan，ershizhiliyutongguogaozhiliangdekafeiheshequjianlirenwenlianjie，chuangzaodutede“tiyanshikafeipinpai”。

yinweishuercixiangxin，suizhexiaofeizheduikafeidelejiejiashen，tamenhuixunqiucongdiduanhuodazhechanpinzhuanxianggenggaopinzhidekafeishengji，erxingbakepingjieqipinpaijiazhi、shequtiyanhegaopinzhikafei，jiangjixuyingdeshichangdezunzhong。[3]

xingbakedexiachenkeweishihuoliquankai。

2022nian9yue，xingbakejihuadao2025nianzaizhongguoshichangmendianshuliangdadao9000jia，fugaizhongguo300gechengshi；

daole2023nian，xingbakekaishijiangzhongguoshichangde3000duogexianchengnaruzhanlveshiye；

jiezhi2024cainianmo，xingbakezhongguodemendianzongshudadaole7596jia，fugailejiejin1000gexianjishichang，zhanquanqiumendianzongshude18.9%。[1]

zaiyixiliegaojugaodadecelvezhidaoxia，xingbakeyilugongchenglvedi，jin2024cainianq4，jiuxindarulezhongguo78gexiancheng。

youqudeshi，jinguanhuohuade·shuercimingquebiaoshixingbakebuhuicanyujiagezhan，danhaishimeirenzhutuichulegezhongyouhuiquanhecuxiaohuodong，liduhaibuxiao。

jinnianshuangshiyiyushouzaimeituantuichude“109yuankafei5cika”，kexuanremenyinpin“daxidifengqingmianyunlengcui”，richangtuichude“16dianxiawuchaxiandingteyin”xiangshou44yuanzuoyoukede3beixingbakedeyouhui，gengyoubi9.9yuanhaiyaoneijuandejiage，“yexiangkeruiduo”zaimouxietedingshikezuididaoshoujia5.5yuan。

图源：网络

2.2 第三空间正在陷落

zaijingzhengbairehuajieduanli，“yijiahuanliang”huoxushijixuliuzaipaizhuoshangdebixuanxiang，danqihaichuyexianeryijian，juandaojizhiyihou，jiagezhanzhihuirangwanjiadouxianruexingxunhuan。

genjuzhaimencanyanshujubuwanquantongji，jiezhi10yue15ri，kafeixingyejinyinianneixinkaimendian61576jia，quezhijingzengzhang13850jia，zheiyiweizheguoquyinianliyoujihu4.7wanjiakafeidiantuichushichangwutai。[4]

yucitongshi，zhengtikafeishichangkuodianhuanbibiandongfudujihudouzaidafuxiahua，shenzhiliansuokafeipinpaicosta coffezai2024nian8yueyinglai“zhianshike”，zuigaokuodianzengsuhuanbixiajiang100%。

zaitongxingmendianjijikeweizhishi，xingbakeyuanbenyinyiweihaode、juyouyijiajiazhide“disankongjian”quebingmeiyoubeichentuochuduoshaoyoushilai。

zaishejiaomeitishang，xuduowangyoudouzaibiaodarujinxingbakedekongjiantiyanganyuelaiyuecha，buxiaofeizhanzuo、chaonaowuxudengdengyixiliejiangditiyanjiazhidemendianguanliwenti，rangxingbakede“disankongjian”gainianbaoshouzhiyi。

yaozhidao，“disankongjian”keshixingbakeyuanshangyemoshidehexinjiazhi。

图源：网络

gengguanjiandeshi，xingbakerujindezhengtidingjiarengranshigaode。 

jinnianxiatian，xingbakehuanshuai，brian niccoljierenxingbakexinceozhihou，xuanbujiangfangqiciqiande“dijiacelve”，juexinzhongzhenpinpaihuoli。 zheiyiweizhe“maiyisongyi、jiangjia50%”dengyouhuihuodonghuojiangchengweiguoqushi。 [5] 

shishishang，xingbakesuoweideyouhuiyezhishizhenduizhangxiaodanpindexiaofuduzhekouyouhui，gengbutizheixieyouhuijuanshijihenshaorenzhidaoxiaoshouqudao，bushizhuanmensousuogonglvehuozhetuangouchaxun，jihunanyizhixiao。 

yinci，zengzhangheiherenwei，xingbakeyizhaoguoquzhanlvedefangfalun，yigaierlundizaixiachenshichangjianchi“hongdaxushi”，huoxuzhinengzhuazhujiasukuodianzhongde“xinxianliuliang”，yidanzheipikuodianerxinzengdexiaofeizheyonggaojiagetiyandaoyuzhibingbupipeidekafeishequtiyan，jianghendakenengliushizaibuduanneijuande9.9yuankafeiyuwushuxinxingdexianyukafeizhizhong，neimeyebunengsuanzhendezaixiachenshichangzhanwenjiaogen。

weilaihenzhangyiduanshijian，xingbakehenkenengyaozai“zhekoudazhan”he“kongjianjiazhi”zhijianlaihuilachele。

3 原战略的价值在于，紧抓核心人群放大胜算

那星巴克能不能索性放弃“宏大叙事”呢？

dangyigepinpaijishiniandejiyinyijingshenrurenxinshi，maorangaibiandiaoxingdefengxianshihengaode。womenkeyilijiewei，baochigaozitaihegaojiaweibuyidingshixingbake“gaoao”，henkenengshi“chuandanandiaotou”。

suoyiyanzheyuanyoudehangxianxingshi，yebugaibeiquanpanfouding。

meiguozhimingtouxingtd cowen jinnian5yuedeyanjiu faxian，zaizhongguokuaicanfuwuhekafeiliansuopinpaizhong，xingbakederenzhichengdurengwenjudiyi。[6] 

erqie，jinguanruixinglaishixiongxiong，jiaodonglezhenggekafeixingye，zaixiaofeizhezhongdejiazhirenzhiduyezuigao，dankouweishangrengxianzhuluohouyuxingbake。[6]

shishishang，congxingbakezheijiniandalijiansheshuzihua、chanyelianbentuhuawuyizaixiaofeijiegoudecengmianshanglaishuo，“hongdaxushi”duiyuxingbakedeyejihuinuanshiyouxianzhuchengxiaode。

2017nian，xingbakezhujianwanchenglesuoyoumendianzhichiweixinhezhifubaoyidongzhifudegongzuo，bingzaitongnianyualibabahezuo，zaishanghaimendianshoucishixianardaxingchangjingshibiejishudeshangyehuayingyong。

daole2020nian，xingbake“kakuai”de“zaixiandian，daodianqu”moshizhengshishangxian，congfuwuliuchenglaikan，youhualegukezizhuxiaofeidelujing，youxiaohuanjielezhoubianmendiandezhizuoyali，tishenglegongzuoxiaolvhexiaofeizhetiyan。[7]

zhi2022nian9yue，xingbakegongbuleweiqisanniandezhongsujihua，zhizaitongguotishengzidonghuashuipingheyouhuayunyingmoshi，laiyinghenianqingxiaofeizheriyizengzhangdejingxihuahegexinghuaxuqiu。

tongguoduishuzihuafunengyewucelvedebuduanjiama，shidexingbakezai2023niandisijiduzhong，chenggongshixianshuziyewuchuangxialishixingao，zhanxiaoshoue52%，jiaoshangjiduzengzhang4%。[7]

tebieliangyandeshi，zaijinnian6yue，xingbakedehuiyuantixi“xingxiangjulebu”youyoulexindewanfa。xiangjiaozhiqiandehuiyuantixi，jiangzaiyinxing、yuxing、jinxingsanzhonghuiyuanjibiezhishangzengshe“zuanxing”jibie，zuanxinghuiyuannenggouxiangshoudaogengjiagexinghuahefuyoutiyangandezhuanshuhaoliyufuwu，biruyouxiandiandan、shengrizhuanshuliwu、xingbakeshanghaihongbeigongfangdezhuanshukafeizhilvdeng，haiyinrulexindexingxingduihuanjizhihewanfa，rangmeiyikexingxingdounengbeigenglinghuodiduihuan。[8]

tongshi，xingbakehaiyuxierdunjituandachenglehezuo，jiangshuangfangdehuiyuantixishixianlehulianhutong。zheiyiweizhexingbakedehuiyuanzairuzhuxierdunjiudianshi，keyixiangshoudaoewaidejixingjiangli，erxierdundehuiyuanzaixingbakexiaofeishi，yenenghuodexiangyingdejifen。ciwai，xingbakejinxingjizuanxinghuiyuanzaixierdundekuaisushengjihuodongzhong，haiyoujihuigengkuaidishengjiweixierdunjinhuiji，xiangshougengduodejiudianfuwuhequanyi。[8]

图源：网络

shengjidehuiyuantixiyuhuiyuanquanyi，zaicijixiaofeidetongshi，kansizhishiduoleyanshenquanyi，danxingbakeqishizuodeshirangpinpaijiazhichixuyijia，shi“hongdaxushi”bihuandeyanxu，yeshiqubie9.9kafeidezuidabilei。

huanjuhuashuo，xinlaohuiyuanxianzaibuxuyaoxiaofeitaiduoqian，yekeyiduihuanliwu，shenzhizhijielianjieguojigaoduanjiudianxierdun——wuyishiyoujixingbake“shengka”，jinyibuzuoshixingbakezaigaoduanshichangdedingwei。

juxingbake2024niandisijiducaibaoxianshi，xingbakezhongguoxinzengxingxiangjulebuhuoyuehuiyuanda150wan，huoyuehuiyuanguimoda2350wan，jinjiqilvlvchuangxialishixingao，huiyuanzongshudadaoguole1.379yi，keyimingxianfaxian，zaiquanxinshengjidehuiyuantixijiachixia，xingbakehuiyuandehuoyueduhezhongchengduyezaibuduanchuangxialishixingao，wulunshizuanxinghuiyuanhaishijinxinghuiyuan，tamendexiaofeipinlvdouxianshichutongbizengzhanghehuanbizengzhangdequshi。[9]

zheiyangyilai，xiangshangnenggoudailaipinpaiyijia，xiangxianenggoulongluoxierdunyuxingbakedaliangzhongdiedemubiaorenqun，liwaidoujinzhualaoke/hexinrenqun，huoxushijinnianlaixingbake“hongdaxushi”zhongzuichenggongdechengguozhiyi，weizheichangdigutuweizhandailaishengsuandejiacheng。

写在最后

pinpaidexushichuzhongzongshimeihaode，dancongguoneihongguanshichanglaikan，kafeireduzanshibuhuijingliduanyashixiadie，shenzhixiachenshichangdeqianliyijigenggaojieshichangdeqianli，yehaimeinengbei9.9yuandekafeizhanwajue，zhishiyuelaiyuejuan、yuyanyulie。

neijuanbuduandekafeishichangyimianshihuo，yimianshibing。

jugeoq datapinpaishujutongji，geoq datashoulude20jialiansuokafeipinpaizhong，2024nianshangbannianzhengtikuodianshuliangyue6592jia，guandianshuyuewei1895jia，kaibidianbiwei3.48，duibiqunianshangbannian9.02dekaibidianbi，liansuokafeidekuodianzengsuyouzhemingxianfanghuan。 

yejiushishuo，jingzhenggengjilie，taotailvyeyuelaiyuegao，xiangyaochuquanbingqiezhanwenjiaogen，zaiyizhaoyiwangdekaituojingyanhuoxubuzaishiyongkuaisubianhuadeshichanghuanjingle。

shushinianqian，xingbakeyizhaodakaidahe、gaojugaodademoshi，weibishiquanqiukafeishichangdoudailailexindehuoli。

shushinianhoudejintian，shichangbuduandiedaiyiranwanchenglepinleipeiyu，tongshiyeliujixingbakeyigejidaijiedadewenti：

“zenyangde‘hongda’，caisuanwanchengwanmeixushi？”

cankaoziliao： 

[1] xingbakexiangguanshujujunlaizicaiwubaogaojigongkaiziliaozhengli 

[2] 2024zhongguoxiaofeizhezhanwang｜nierseniq 

[3] lizudangxia，wenjianzengzhang，xingbakesanjiducaibaofabu｜aifaner 

[4] yinian4.7wanjiakafeidiandaobi！daliangxiaodianzhengzaizaoyu“shiyueweiji” ｜kamen 

[5] xingbakeyibianyaofangqijiagezhan，yibianyoufuhuo19yuan“qiongguitaocan”｜zhongguoyinpinkuaibao 

[6] the china report｜td cowen 

[7] xingbakeq1yejizengzhangbeihouzhongguoshichangfazhanfali，shuzihuanengfouzhuqipoju？｜meiguyanjiushe 

[8] xingbakehuiyuantixi“poquan”shengji，chaoyiyihuiyuankaiqi“xingshishenghuo”｜xingbakezhongguoguanwang 

[9] xingbakefabusijiducaibao，zhongguoshichangshixiangaozhiliang、keyingli、kechixufazhan｜xinlangcaijing