以下观点整理自屠新泉在中国宏观经济论坛CMF宏观经济热点问题研讨会（第94期）上的发言

一、特朗普贸易政策的确定性与不确定性

telangpushangtaihoudezhengceyouquedingxingyeyoubuquedingxing，qizhong，jiashuijuyouquedingxing，yinqiduiguanshuijiweirezhong，shenzhizicheng “guanshuixia”。raner，qijiashuidejutishishifangshiyumuderengcunbuquedingxing。telangpubenshenxingshifenggeduobian，qixingdongmudeyecunzaiyiwen，guzhengtiqingkuangjuyoubuquedingxing。

一是特朗普势必会继续破坏现在的多边贸易体系，当前世界贸易组织面临比其首个任期更严峻的形势。congtelangpudesixiangcengmiankan，bingwubianhua。dangxia wto zhengzhizongganshiyiweilarenqijieman、niandimianlingaixuanzhiji，jinguanyiweilashiweiyihouxuanren，qiebaidengzhengfucengzhichiqijiuren，danbaidengzhengfushifouhuipeihetelangpuzaicizunaozongganshirenming，shiyidawenti。ruojinzhanshunli，cishijiangyujinnianniandiyoudinglun，danyekenengchuxiantuoyan，qizhongcunzaizhuduoyingxiangyinsu。telangpuzaishougerenqicengweixiejujuezhifuhuoxuejian wto yusuan，cicishangtaihoukenenggujizhongshi，qiecongdangqianxingshikan，qijuexinjiaoshangyirenqigengweiqianglie。zheizhongxingweidui wto deyingxiangjiweielie，ruoquefayusuanhezongganshi，wto jiangwufazhengchangyunzhuan。sui wto zaishangsujigoubeitelangpupohuaihourengnengkaihui、mishuchurengkejixugongzuo，danruowujingfeihezongganshi，jianghuichanshengyanzhongwenti，suicunzaiqitabujiutujing，danrengjiaoweikunnan。

二是特朗普将对诸多相关贸易协定进行重新谈判。yimeimojiaxiedingweili，gaixiedingjijiangdaoqi，qizhongsheyouzhongxintanpantiaokuan，zheishitelangpuzaituidongmeimojiaxiedingzhishisuomaixiadefubi，meigeyiduanshijianbianhuizhongxinpinggu。jianyujinliangnianmoxige、jianadaduimeiguodemaoyishunchadafuzengjia，telangpudepinggujieguodagailvshibumande，tashibihuijiecixiangmoxigehejianadashiya，poshiqijinyiburangbu。ciwai，baidengzhudaodeyintaijingjikuangjia（ipef）yekenenghuibeitelangpufeichu。telangpusuishengchengyaoduiqitamaoyihuobanpubianjiazheng10%-20%deguanshui，dangengdadekenengxingshiyijiazhengguanshuixiangyaoxie，poshixiangguanguojiazengjiacongmeiguodejinkou、jianshaoduimeiguodechukou，qihexinmubiaorengranshixuejianmeiguodemaoyinicha，erfeiyumaoyihuobantuogou。

danshiduiyixiezhongdianguojia，liruyuenan、moxigejidongmengyixieguojiadeng，zhongguoyoujiaoduotouziqiezhongguochanyelianzaidangdijuyoujiaoduojianjiechukouxiaoyingdeguojia，bizherenweitelangpuzhengfuhuicaiqujiazhengguanshuidecuoshierfeitanpan。zhongguohenduoqiyezaizheixiediqutouzi，jiangzhongguochanyelianjiagonghuanjiezhiyudangdihouzaixiangmeiguozhuanyi，zheiyixianxiangshifenxianzhu，erzheishimeiguowufarongrende，yinciyujiqihuiduizheixieguojiajiazhengguanshui，huozheposhizheixieguojiacaiquyixiecuoshiyuzhongguogongyinglianjinyibuqiege。

对于中国亦是如此。目前虽有对中国加征60%关税之说，但笔者认为加征关税会分阶段、分批次进行，而非立刻全方位实施，因这会给美国自身市场造成严重混乱。buguo，jiashuishibirande，zhishirutongshangciyiyangfenpicikaizhan。rudiyipi500yiguanshuizhenduideshizhongguozhizao2025xiangguanchanye，erzhongguoduimeiguochukoudeduoshuxiaofeipinzuizhongweijiashui，kejianmeiguohaishiyousuogulv，danjiashuizheiyixingweibuhuigaibian。

三是特朗普及其共和党团队在竞选纲领中提及取消中国的最惠国待遇即永久正常贸易关系地位（PNTR），meiguoguohuiyeyiyoubufenyiyuantichuxiangguantian，nizantinghuoquxiaozhongguodezuihuiguodaiyu，jiangzhongguozhiyu1930nianguanshuifadierlie，yicizuoweijizhunguanshui，erfeizuihuiguoguanshui，dangqianzheishiyigezhongdafengxian。zaibizhekanlai，quxiaozhongguozuihuiguodaiyudeyingxiangshenyujiazhengguanshui。yangeyiyishang，zuihuiguodaiyushiliangguowaijiaoguanxidejishizhiyi，zhishaoshijingjicengmiandezhongyaojishi。quxiaozuihuiguodaiyuxiangdangyujingjiduanjiao，shijijuyanzhongxinghexiangzhengyiyidejucuo。jinguanquxiaozuihuiguodaiyuweibihuiquanmianjiazheng60%deguanshui，dancongliangguoguanxijiaodueryan，qixiangzhengyiyizhongda。

meiguoguohuihegonghedangneiyoubufenrenyuanzhengzaijijituidongquxiaozhongguozuihuiguodaiyuyishi，qietaiduxiangdangrenzhen。telangpusuicengtijizheiyiwenti，danbizherenweiqitaidubingfeishifenjianjue。jiumuqianxingshieryan，quxiaopntrcunzaijiaodakenengxing，buguorengyouyidingdezhuanyuankongjian。qizhongyigeguanjianyuanyinshimeiguoguoneideyixieliyijituanshifanduide，yinweizuihuiguodaiyushishuangxiangde，ruguomeiguoquxiaoduizhongguodezuihuiguodaiyu，zhongguobiranyaoquxiaoduimeiguodezuihuiguodaiyu。rucimeiguoduihuachukouxingyejiqiyejiangzaoshoujudachongji，zheibingfeijiandandebaofuwenti，ershizhongguobudebucaiqufanzhicuoshi，zheigewentishifeichangyanzhongde。

dangranyeyouyizhongkenengxing，yinweizaizhongguorushiyiqianmeiguoduizhongguodezuihuiguodaiyushiniandushenyi，bishimeiguochangyiniandushenyiweichouma，yaoxiezhongguozaizhengcefangmianzuochuxiangyingrangbu。rujin，bupaichumeiguohuifuzheiyijizhidekeneng。ruoruci，zhongmeizhijianyoujiangweiraociwentifanfujiuchan，meiniandouyaojiucishizhankaizhenglunhetaolun，xiangyingdi，maoyizhengcedebuquedingxingjiangdafuzengjia，zheishiyizhonghendadeqianzaikeneng。

muqianduimeiguojiashuideyingxiangyougezhonggeyangdefenxi，yourenrenweiyingxiangdayixie，yourenrenweiyingxiangxiaoyixie，erqieyoubutongdeqingjing，nanyimingquehuiyoushenmeyangdeyingxiang。dankeyiquedingdeshi，yingxiangbiranhenda，zheishijibenpanduan。danduibutongxingye、butongdiqudeyingxiangchengdu、fenjieduanshishidecuoshidouyouhenduodebuquedingxing。zongzhi，xuzuohaozhunbei，yingduizheizhongjidadebuquedingxinghedongdang。

二、对未来中长期预期的判断

美国国内存在广泛的共识，包括两党及全国层面，认为与中国脱钩是必要的。普遍观点认为，美国与中国保持贸易、投资及其他关系更有利于中国而非美国，因此美国脱钩的决心十分坚定，这已成为一个中长期趋势，预计在未来十到二十年将持续存在。基于此，中美贸易战似乎无解。历史上，美国与日本的贸易战最终通过日本对美投资和日本单方面让步的方式得到解决，日本也放弃了某些产业的发展，如半导体和大飞机制造，以避免与美国竞争。然而，中美之间的问题无法通过类似方式解决，因为美国出于国家安全考虑不欢迎中国投资，同时中国也不会像日本那样为了取悦美国而放弃产业和技术发展。因此，中美之间缺乏和解的途径，这一状态将在相当长的时间内持续。中美之间的博弈将是一场中长期的发展竞赛，最终的胜利者将取决于谁的发展更为持久和稳健。dangranqiantishishuangfangbimianfashengrezhanhuojunshichongtu，fouzejieguojiangbukeyuce。yinci，duiyuzhongmeizhijianchixudeboyihuoduikang，xuyaozuohaozhangqidexinlizhunbei，renshidaozheishiyigezhongzhangqideguocheng。

三、针对当前情况的建议

从短期来看，特朗普对中国加征关税的主要顾虑是国内通胀问题，而非中国的反制措施。笔者认为，特朗普对与中国谈判兴趣有限，因为中国能提供的让步不多。因此，影响他推进或扩大贸易战的主要因素是美国国内经济和通胀状况。若加征关税后美国通胀未受显著影响，甚至维持在低水平或下降，特朗普将更坚定地推动与中国的脱钩。zheiyidianzaizhidingfanzhihuoduanqiyingduicelveshizhiguanzhongyao。liru，jinqizhengcediaozhengzhongjiangdibufenchanpindechukoutuishuilv，shiyingduidangqianxingshideyouxiaoshouduan。

一是考虑不对所有国家全面降低出口退税率，而是专门针对美国进行调整。dangqian，zhongmeizhijiandemaoyiguanxishishishangyibuzaixiangyouzuihuiguodaiyu，zheiyidiancongshijiguanshuishuipinglaikanhenmingxian，zhongmeixianghuzhengshoudeguanshuiyiyuangaoyuyuqitamaoyihuobandeshuiping。yinci，zaizhidingzhengceshi，keyiyouzhenduixingdidiaozhengduimeiguodechukoutuishuilv，zheizhongzuofazaidangqiandemaoyihuanjingxiashikexingqiehelide。

二是针对美国破坏多边贸易体制的行为，中国应该反其道而行之，应该维护和加强多边贸易体制。在这方面中国的态度一直非常明确，习近平zhuxizaiapechuiyishangdejianghuazaiciqiangdiaoleduiwtodezhichi。dangqiandetiaozhanzaiyuruhejiangzheizhongzhichizhuanhuaweijutixingdong。liru，mianduimeiguojujuehuojianshaoduiwtodeyusuanzhichi，zhongguokeyikaolvtianbuzheiyicaizhengquekou。zheibujinbaokuozhudongzengjiahuifei，haikeyitongguoduanqijuankuanhuoguliminjianjuanzenglaizhichiwtodeyunzuo。zaidangqianxingshixia，wtoxuyaozhunbeiyingduimeiyoumeiguojijicanyudeqingkuang，tongguotuanjieqitachengyuanlaituidongwtodejinyibufazhan，congershimeiguochuyuluohouweizhi。jinguanmeiguotuichuwtodekenengxingbuda，danqizaizuzhineijibufahuilingdaozuoyongyebugensuiqitaguojiadezuofa，duizhongguoeryan，shiyigetansuoruheweihuwtoyunzhuanhetuidongqixiangqianfazhandejiyu。

三是要加快构建中国发挥引领作用的国际贸易体系，加快发展多边、双边、区域以及周边贸易合作，特别是在“一带一路”倡议下。liru，weiraogongyinglian、shuzijingji、kuajingdianshangdengtedinglingyujianlixindehezuojizhi。zaizheixielingyu，zhongguojuyouyoushihefayanquan，keyitianbumeiguoliuxiadekongque。jianyumeiguoduizhidingguizequefaxingqu，shenzhibuyuanzunshouxianyouguize，zhongguokeyizhudongzhidingguize，bingtuanjieyibufenguojiagongtongcanyu。zheiyiguochengbubizhuiqiudaguimo，erkeyicaiqujianjindefangshi，zhubutuijin。

四是要积极推动对外投资，延伸产业链。zaimouxiediqu，woguochanyelianfazhanyizaoyujixianhepingjing，qizhongbufenpingjingketongguogaishanjichusheshijianshelaitupo，rugangkouhetieludeng，zhongguoyounenglitigongbangzhu。tongshi，woguoyingjinyibutuokuanduiwaitouzidefangxiang。jianyumeiguoshitujiangzhongguocongqigongyinglianzhongpaichu，woguoyingzhiliyujianggongyinglianquanqiuhua，shimeiguonanyishixianquanmiantuogou。jianyumeiguodezhizaoyewufamanzuqixiaofeixuqiu，bixuyilaijinkou，zheiyidianzaiguoqujinianmeiguozizhongguojinkoujianshaoerquanqiumaoyinichakuodazhongdedaotixian。

conggenbenshangshuo，zhongguoyingjixuqianghuazishendefazhan，renshidaozhongmeizhijiandejingzhengbenzhishangshiyichangfazhanjingsai，zuizhongqujueyugezidefazhanchengxiao。duiyuzhongguozheiyangdedaxingjingjitieryan，neixushijingjifazhandejichu。zhongguozaiguoqusishiduonian，youqishiqiansanshinianzhongduiguojidaxunhuandegaoduyilaijuyouteshuxing，buyingchengweichangtai。lishishang，meiguodeduiwaimaoyiyicunduzaiqishiniandaiyiqianshenzhidiyu10%，erzhongguozuigaocengdadao60%，zheizhonggaowaimaoyicundubenshenjiushiyizhongliwai。dangqianyiyouxuduoguanyukuodaneixudetaolun，danyouyigefangmianbizherenweiyinggaiyuyizhongshi，jizaizhengfu、shichangheshehuisanzheguanxifangmian，xuyaojinxingshidangdediaozheng。dangqianzhongguozhengfudeguanlizhinengguoyuqiangda，guanlifanweiguoguang，suiranzheiyouliyuwendingheanquan，danyexianzhileshehuiheshichangdehuoli，yizhiletouzihexiaofeixuqiu。yinci，zhongguoyingfaqiyichangqujianguanhuofangsongguanzhiyundong，fangsongduishichangheshehuideguoduguanli，yijifashehuihuoli。liru，duiyixiedifangzhengfuduishangquandewanshengjiehuodongjinxingxianzhiwanquanshibubiyaode，zheizhongjierisuiyuanzixifang，danbuyingchengweixianzhideliyou。fangsongduishehuideguanzhikeyicijixiaofei，zengjiashehuihuoli，bingshifangshehuiyali。zhongguoyingzhanxianchugengduodewenhuazixin，yinweiconglishifazhanlaikan，zhongguoyounenglijiangwailaiwenhuarongruzhonghuaminzudezuchengbufen。yinci，guodudeguanlishibubiyaode，yingzengqiangshehuihuoli。yidanzhengfufangsongjianguanheguanli，shehuihejingjifazhandehuolijiangdedaoshifang。