文｜时代周报

zonghengjianghu20niande“haozhaishui”chengweiguoqushi。

11yue22ri，guangzhoushizhufanghechengxiangjianshejudengsanbumenfabu《guanyuquxiaoputongzhuzhaihefeiputongzhuzhaibiaozhundetongzhi》。zhici，putongzhuzhaihefeiputongzhuzhaibiaozhunzhengshizaiyixianchengshixuangaozhongjie。

zheiyibiaozhunkeyizhuisudao20nianqian。

2005nian4yue30ri，jianshebu、fagaiwei、caizhengbudengqibumenlianhefabu《guanyuzuohaowendingzhufangjiagegongzuodeyijian》（yixiajiancheng“《yijian》”）。

《yijian》tichu，zi2005nian6yue1riqi，duigerengoumaifeiputongzhufangchaoguo2nian（han2nian）zhuanshoujiaoyide，xiaoshoushianqishoufangshourujianqugoumaifangwudejiakuanhoudechaezhengshouyingyeshui。youyuzheiyizhengshuiduixiangjinxianyufeiputongzhuzhai，yinciyoubeichengwei“haozhaishui”。

tongshimanzuyixiatiaojiandezekemianzheng“haozhaishui”：zhuzhaixiaoqujianzhurongjilvzai1.0yishang、dantaojianzhumianjizai120pingfangmiyixia、shijichengjiaojiagediyutongjibietudishangzhufangpingjunjiaoyijiage1.2beiyixia——zheishiputongzhuzhaidechushidingyi。

20nianshijianli，gediputongzhuzhairendingbiaozhunjingguoduocidiaozheng。shenzhendezuixinbiaozhunshi：zhuzhaixiaoqujianzhurongjilvzai1.0（han）yishang；dantaozhufangtaoneijianzhumianji120（hanbenshu）pingfangmiyixiahuozhedantaozhufangjianzhumianji144（hanbenshu）pingfangmiyixia。

quxiaoputongzhuzhaihefeiputongzhuzhaibiaozhun，yiweizhe“haozhaishui”yejiangsuizhituichujianghu。zheijiangjieshengyidabijiaoyishuifei。

genjumeilianwuyequanguoyanjiuzhongxincesuan，jiadingyitaojianzhumianjiyue148pingfangmideershouzhuzhai，yuandengjijiagewei800wanyuan，yezhuchiyousannianhoumaichu，maijiayi2000wanyuanmairuzuoweijiatingdiertaozhuzhai，“haozhaishui”quxiaoqianmaimaishuangfangxujiaonaqishui、zengzhishuijiqifujia、gerensuodeshuiheji151wanyuan，quxiaohoujiaoyishuifeijiangzhi60wanyuan，lisheng91wanyuan。

“yixianchengshixianhouquxiaoputongzhuzhaihefeiputongzhuzhaidebiaozhun，dahuxing、zhonggaoduanchanpindexiaoshouqingkuangbiandehuoyueqilai，henduojiaozhedemaimaicuoshangzhengzaijiasuqianyue。”meilianwuyeshenzhendongshizongjinglijiangxianliangrenwei，bencijiaoyishuifeiyouhuahou，gaishanxingchanpin、gaoduanchanpindejiaoyiliangjianghuimingxianzengjia。

shishishang，“haozhaishui”quxiaoqian，shouyiyuzhengcechixuyouhua，gaishanxingxuqiuyouxiaoshifang，beishangguangshenhaozhaishichangyijingzouchudulixingqing。yeneipanduan，cici“haozhaishui”quxiao，jiangyoulihangshihaozhaishichangxingqing，chengjiaojixuqiwen。

富豪出手扫货，顶豪频现“日光盘”

sigeyixianchengshizhong，shanghaihaozhaishichangjinnianyilaichixugaore，yizhiduxiu。

11yue15ri，shanghaixuhuizhonghailingdi·jiuzhangxuanfang，junjiayue13.25wanyuan/pingfangmide552taofangyuankaipanshouqing，shoujin85yiyuan——zheishixiangmudisicishixiankaipanshouqing。zhonghailingdi·jiuzhangshinianneishanghaidisige“qianrenyao”xiangmu，leijixiyin1556zugoufangzherengou，shuaxinjinnianshanghaixinpanrengoujilu，chufajifenzhi。

jiuzhangshouqinghou，zhonghaixuhuibinjiangxiangmuleijixiaoshoueda233yiyuan，chuangxiaquanguodanpangaocengzhuzhaixiaoshoujinexingao，yinciyebeichengwei“zuiniuhaozhai”。

jinsuiqihouderongchuangwaitanyihaoyuan，zai10yue27riyinglaidisancikaipan，158taofangyuanshixian58.82yiyuanxiaoshoujine。genjurongchuangzhongguopilushuju，rongchuangwaitanyihaoyuannianneisancikaipansancishouqing，zongxiaoshoutaoshu472tao，quannianzongchengjiaojineyue215yiyuan。

keerruishanghaijigoutongjishujuxianshi，jinnianqiansangejidu，shanghaigongjichansheng30ge“riguang”pan。qizhong，danjia10wanyuan/pingfangmidehaozhaipan17ge，danjia15wanyuan/pingfangmiyishangdehaozhaipanyou8ge；zongjia3000wanyuanyishangdegaoduanzhuzhaichengjiao1817tao，jiao2023nianquannianzengzhang93%。

shanghaihaozhaizouchudulixingqing，diduandexiquexingshiqi“liuliangmima”。

genjushanghaizhongyuandichanshichangfenxishiluwenxideguancha，shanghaihaozhaichixurexiaodeyuanyinzaiyu，diduandebukefuzhixing。“shanghaikaibuyibaiduonian，diyunshenhou，wutongqudediduan、renwen、chanpindoushidingjiande，meiyoubanfafuzhi，henshou‘laoqian’qinglai。shanghaiyeyouhenduojinrongxingui，xihuanzhuzaihuangpujiangbianshang，haodediduanyejiupudongyiduan、puxiyiduan，xianzaiyejianshedeqiqibabale。”

“youyuyouzhitudixique、kaifajiezoufanghuan，shichangtigongdechanpinyuanbunengmanzuxuqiu，zaijiashangjinhoudeshichangbuzaishipuzhangxingqing，qianzhihuiliuxianghaodiduan、haochanpin。suoyi，zhishaozaizuijinyiliangnianli，zaizizhuxuqiushifangdiejiazichanpeizhixuyaodequdongxia，haozhaipanhuikaiyigehuoyige。”luwenxibiaoshi。 

youbieyushanghaihaozhaishichangdepubianshengwen，beijing、guangzhou、shenzhenchengxiandianzhuanggaowenzhuangtai。

zai“9·30xinzheng”dezhugongxia，beijingdongsihuanhaozhaibeijingchenyuanyu10yue13rikaipan，xianchangyue800gezuoweizuowuxuxi。kaifashangzhongjianzhidixuanbubeijingchenyuanshoukaishoujin61.5yiyuan，suihoujinjijiatui。erhuanneixichengquhaozhaizhonghaijinghuajiuxu，yi91.53yiyuandechengjiaojinepaimingjinnian1-10yuebeijingxiangmuxiaoshoujinebangdiyi，chengjiaojunjiayue17.45wanyuan/pingfangmi。

guangzhoudinghaoshichangchuxianduozongguoyichengjiao。

xinghewan·bandaozaijinnian“huangjinzhou”jiaqishourichengjiao2taozongjiachao2yiyuan、mianjichao1000pingfangmidefushidanwei。pengrui1haochengjiao2taowangjiang“louwang”danwei，yitaozongjia2.08yiyuan，yitaozongjia2.02yiyuan。ershoudinghaoqiaoxin·huiyuetaichengjiaoyitaozongjiagaoda4.61yiyuandedapingceng，danjiayue37wanyuan/pingfangmi，yijushuaxinquanguodantaozhuzhaishoujiajilu。

shenzhendehaozhaishichangxinxinyiyousuoxiufu。

yu11yue22rijieshuxuanfangdezhaoshangshekousihaizhendierqi，canguanyangbanjianxuyanzi100wanyuan。zhikaipanjieshu，junjiayue11.23wanyuan/pingfangmide206taoyushoufangyuanquhua96%，shoujin23.3yiyuan。shentieyifujinqituichuzuihou4tao“louwang”danwei，2taodapingcengzongjiayue3400wanyuan，2taodingcengfushizongjiayue5800wanyuan，kaipanbanxiaoshishouqing。

chenjiyijiudefapaifangshichangyeyouyidong，11yuechuxianduotaoyijiachengjiaohaozhai。

shenzhenwanyuefuyiqiyitaojianzhumianjiyue364pingfangmidanweiyi8119wanyuanchengjiao，yijialv14.21%；shenzhenwansanxianghaishangyitaojianzhumianjiyue287pingfangmidanweiyi8452wanyuanchengjiao，yijialv18.17%；xiangmihujinshanfuyitaojianzhumianjiyue240pingfangmidanweiyi4599wanyuanchengjiao，yijialv36.12%。

市场极度分化，普豪仍在降价

haozhaishichangsuirangaore，danneibuyechuxianfenhuaqushi。dangdinghaopinchuanjiebaoshi，“puhao”zhengzaidazhejiangjia。

10yuedi，lijiachengjiazuqixiaqiyezhangjiangshiyezaibeijingchaoyangdongsihuandehaozhaixiangmuyucuiyuankaipan，tuichu50taotejiafang，chanpinbaokuojianzhumianjiyue140pingfangmi、yue180pingfangmidedapingcenghejianzhumianjiyue345pingfangmidelianpaibieshu，shoujiadizhi7.6wanyuan/pingfangmi。

kegongduibideshi，yucuiyuanbeianjiazai9.07wan-9.97wanyuan/pingfangmizhijian，tejiafangshoujiajiaobeianjiadale76zhe，tongyangdichudongsihuanyanxiandehaozhaixiangmurongchuangyihaoyuan、manhebeijing，xiaoshoudanjiajunchaoguo10wanyuan/pingfangmi。

shenzhenshichangdejingkuangxiangsi，yishouhaozhairanglikaipan，ershoufangjia“mingshenganjiang”。

zhaoshangshekousihaizhendierqituichu206taofang，xiyin370pikehurenchou，fangkebiyuewei1:1.8。kaipanqijian，zhaoshangshekouyiranjidaochengyimanmandezhekou，anjiefukuanzhekouwei93zhe、yicixingfukuanzhekouwei92zhe。

ershoushichangbiaoganpanhuarunchengrunfuyiqishiyigedianxingyangben。

shenzhen“9·26xinzheng”fabuhou，runfuyiqichengjiaoduxianzhutisheng。laizibeiqiaozhaofangdechengjiaojiluxianshi，9yue30ri-10yue23riqijian，gaipingtaileijichengjiaorunfuyiqi10taoershoufang，zhengge8yuedechengjiaoliangzhiyou2tao。

jianzhumianjiyue89pingfangmi3shi2tingshichengjiaozhuli，zuixinchengjiaojiazai1200wanyuanzuoyou。“9·26xinzheng”chutaiqian，tonghuxingdechengjiaojiazai1150wanyuanshangxia，diloucengdanweidiepo1000wanyuan。

“chengjiaojiakansishangzhangle，danqishizhishihuidaodangchuzhengchangdeshichangjia，shenzhihaibunengshuo‘huidao’。”zhangqiguanzhuhuarunchengdezishenjingjirenchenyanhang（huaming）biaoshi，jinnian4yue，runfuyiqiyoutonghuxingfangyuanyi1250wanyuanchengjiao，zaishichanggaofengqi，chengjiaojiacengqudao1300wanyuan。 

cixinpanzhaoshangzhenfuyechuxianleisiqingkuang。yitaojianzhumianjiyue120pingfangmide4shi2tingfangyuanyi1168wanyuanguapaichushou。zaifangpandeyigeduoyueshijianli，yezhucengdiaojiasanci，zuijinyicishizai11yue13ri，shangdiaobaojia169wanyuanzhi1168wanyuan，zheiyijiageyuchushiguapaijia1200wanyuanxiangbi，rengranbianyile32wanyuan。

shuxizhaoshangzhenfudejingjirenzhangxin（huaming）toulu，xianshoujiejinhou，gaixiaoquduanshijianneidaliangfangyuanguapaichushou，jiageneijuanyanzhong，“120pingfangmide3shi2ting，zuibianyideyitaoyezhuzhimai936wanyuan，bidangchudekaipanjiabianyileyibaiduowan，zhenxinxiangmaijiagehaiyoutanpankongjian。haiyouyezhuweilefangbianmaijiakanfang，tiqianjieshuzuyue，baojia1020wanyuan，yebikaipanjiadi。”

guangzhoushichangsuirandinghaochengjiaohuoyue，danzhengtichengjiaoliangyousuohuiluo。guangzhouzhongyuanyanjiufazhanbutongjishujuxianshi，jinnian1-10yue，guangzhouqianwanhaozhaichengjiaobuji2023niantongqi，yujiquannianchengjiaoliangzai4500taozuoyou，jiangshiguangzhouzuijin5nianhaozhaichengjiaoshoucichuxiantongbixiadiedeyinian。

止跌企稳可期，机构释放看好信号

caizhengbudengsanbuweifabufangdichanshuishouzhengcehou，shanghaishishougeluodiquxiaopuzhaibiaozhundeyixianchengshi，suihoubeijinggenjinquxiaopuzhaibiaozhun，shenzhenheguangzhouyejiasugenjin，yixianchengshijinruzhengcekuansongqi。

zai9yuedideyilanziloushizhengcebianjixiaoyingjianruozhiji，“jianshui”dazhaodechutaijiangjixugongguzhengcexiaoguo。yeneirenwei，“haozhaishui”quxiaohou，haozhaishichangjianghuodeyiboxindeyoulituoju，cujinchengjiao，bingchuandaozhigangxushichang，zuizhongdaidongshichangzhengtijixuqiwen。

“zaikuansongdezhengcedaidongxia，loushixinxinzhengzaizhujianhuifu，tuidongfangdichanshichangzhidiehuiwendedongnengjiangzengqiang，yishanghaiweidaibiaodehexinchengshifangdichanshichangjiangzhubufusu，zhengtiloushiyejiangquyuwending。”keerruibiaoshi。

mudirenwei，quanguoheyuexiaoshouezaidujijudafuxiahuadekenengxingbuda。“xinfangdezhangqijibenxuqiuyiranxianzhu，youqishizaigaonengjichengshi。suirangoufangzhededanyourengshizuaiyinsu，danyouyuzhengcehuanjingdechixuzhichi，shichangxinxinbutaikenengdafuquruo。”

muditongshizhichu，gaonengjichengshidebiaoxianjiangjixuyouyudinengjichengshi，yinweiqijingjishiligengqiang，renkouliurugengduobingqiecongzhengcecijicuoshizhongshouyigengda。suizhejumingengjiafuyuheduigengdajuzhukongjiandezhuiqiu，gaishanxinggoufangzhedexuqiuyehuijiaoweiwangsheng，youqishizaigaonengjichengshi。

“gaonengjichengshideheyuexiaoshouezhanquanguoheyuexiaoshouedebiliyicong2020niande45%shengzhi2023niande51%，womenyujidao2025nianjiangjinyibupanshengzhi55%-60%。”mudibiaoshi。

zhongxinjiantoufabuyanbaorenwei，cankaozhidiehuiwendeguojijingyan，haiwai5guofangjiaxiaxingzhouqizai5-10nianzuoyou，diefuzai20%-40%zuoyou，canzhaoci，zhongguofangjiayouwangzai2026nianqianhouzhidiehuiwen。

guangdongshengchengxiangguihuayuanzhufangzhengceyanjiuzhongxinshouxiyanjiuyuanliyujiarenwei，jianshuizhengcefabuyihou，houxuzhengcekongjianyouxian。danjiyoudezhengcehaizailuodidelushang，baokuo100wantaodechengzhongcungaizaohuobihuaanzhi，yongzhuanxiangzhai、zhuanxiangjiekuanlaishouchucunliangtudihefangwudeng。

“zheixiezhengceluodiqujueyuduidibujiagedepanduan、duijiaoyijiagederenke。fanguolai，zheixiezhengceruonengluodi，yeyouzhuyuhangshidibujiage，shidegefangduijiaoyiduijiaxingchenggongshi，suoduanzhidiehuiwendezhouqi。” liyujiabiaoshi。