wen | chuangyezuiqianxian xiaoyun

编辑 | 闪电

jinqi，“liangfanlingshihonglidaijin”、“shoupirujuzhekaishidaobi”、“xianchengneijuanshengyinanzuo”、“xianzaijiamengjiushigejiucai”denghuatifenzhitalai。

shouciyingxiang，xuduorenshenzhiduanyanliangfanlingshixingyeyiranjianding。

jueqiyuxiachenshichang、kansifengguangwuxiandeliangfanlingshi，shifouzhendehuiyoushengzhuanshuai？jinpingshililuojipanduan，nanmianyushishizhenxiangcunyoupiancha。weilenenggoushendujieshiliangfanlingshixingyedezhenxianghequanmao，youbiyaodui“liangfanlingshijiandinglun”zhongchangjiandesigemisiyuyipouxi。

1、量贩零食行业规模停止增长了

liangfanlingshizuoweixiuxianshipinxingyedeyizhongshangyemoshi，qiguimozengzhangyuxiuxianshipinxingyejinmixianglian。bansuijingjifazhanyuxiaofeishuipingtisheng，xiaofeizheduixiuxianshipindexuqiuchixupansheng，zhongduoshipinqiyefenfenshezu，xiuxianshipinzhongleiriyifengfu，yiranchengweishenghuoxin“gangxu”。

aimeizixunfabude《2023—2024nianzhongguoxiuxianshipinchanyexianzhuangjixiaofeixingweishujuyanjiubaogao》xianshi，zi2010nianzhi2022nian，shichangguimocong4100yiyuanzengzhangzhi11654yiyuan，yujidao2027nianjiangdadao12378yiyuan。

wanyijibiedeshichangguimo，yijiweilaiwunianweichi10%yishangdefuhezengzhanglv。jinnianlai，gejizhengfuxiangjichutaizhengcegulixingyefazhan，zhengceheshichangshuangqudong，wuyishiyongjiaotoupiao。

erliangfanlingshiyijingchengweiwanyijixiuxianshipinshichangzuikuaidezengzhangdianzhiyi。ciczhuoshizixunfabude《2023zhongguolingshiliangfanxingyelanpishu》xianshi，suizheweilaimendianshuliangzengzhang，lingshiliangfanshichangguimohaihuiyujicong2022niande407yiyuanzengzhi2027niande1400yiyuan。

zibenshichangchixiangsiguandian，zhongjingongsideyanbaorenwei，liangfanlingshixingyekaidiankongjian6-8wanjia，xiangduiyumuqiandeyue3wanjia，rengyoufanbeikongjian。

zhongjingongsideyanbaoyerenwei，liangfanlingshiweilaikeyizhangqing，chayihua、zhuanyehuashifazhanqushi。

huidaoxianshi，yue3wanjialiangfanmendianyoujin1/3shizai2024nianxinkaishede，zaimingminghenmangjituanchengweishougetupowandianqiyezhihou，xingyediermingwanchenjituanyejiangnulijiru“wan”weidanweidezhongduanjingzheng。

jingguoyixiliebinggouzhenghe，diyitiduiyudiertiduideyoushichajuyijingxianxian，jingzhenggejujibendianding，danbingbuyiweizhexingyejijiangjinrucunliangboyijieduan。

congliangfanlingshidedilifenbulaikan，zhengtihaishichengxian“nanduobeishao”detezheng。youyuliangfanlingshipinpaiduoshuqiyuanyudongnanyanhaijihunan、sichuandengnanfangshengfen，shouzhiyugongyingliandengyinsu，daduopinpaiyifayuandiweizhongxinzhujianxiangwaikuozhang，yincidongbei、huabei、xibeidengdimuqianshentoulvrengjiaodi，fazhanqianjingguangkuo。

youcikanlai，liangfanlingshirengranzaixiangzhongdiankuangben。

2、量贩零食是经济下行期的伪需求

xiuxianshipinsucheng“lingshi”，shuyukuaisuxiaofeipindeyilei，zhideshixiaofeizhezaichuzhushiyiwaisuochideshipin，shiyongdechangjingfeichangguangfan，biruxiuxi、juhui、youwandeng。

yizushujuzhengminglelingshixiaofeidedazhonghua：2024nianqiansanjidu，11jiaxiuxianshipinshangshigongsihejishixianyingshou514.34yiyuan，tongbidafuzengzhang58.03%。kejian，lingshixuqiuyiyoupiangangxushuxing。

zaikanliangfanlingshiyetai，yituogongyinglianbiangeheyunyingguanlixiaolvtixiao，qizhengzaichengweixiaofeizhelingshixiaofeidezhuyaoqudao。

yuqitaolunliangfanlingshixingqiyujingjixingshizoushideguanxi，buruhuiguishangyebenzhi，xunzhaoqiyuxiaofeizhexuqiudeqihedu。

xiangbichuantongdelingshixiaoshouyetai，lingshiliangfanyetaiyou“duo”、“kuai”、“hao”、“sheng”sigetedian。

“duo”tixianzaipinpaiduo、skuduo。dandianskupubianzai1700-3000ge，hangaidazhong、xiaozhongpinpaihejinkoupinpai。tongyipinleitigongduozhongguige、kouwei、chayihuabaozhuangdechanpin，manzugexinghua、duoyuanhuaxiaofeixuqiu。

“kuai”tixianzailujingduan、gaozhouzhuan。xuanzhipubianweiyushequ、xuexiao、yiyuandengshangquan，fugaizuiduanshenghuobanjing。narushuiyinnairu、hongbeigaodian、fangbianshipindengshangchaobianlidianbaokuan，tongguogaopindaidipinweichigaofugoulv。

“hao”tixianzaichangjinghao、tiyanhao。liangfanlingshizhenzhengdechuangxin，shiyichuizhipinleijingyingxiyincongyixiandaoxiachenshichangdejingzhunyonghu，chuangzaolechenjinshilingshixiaofeichangjing。yizhouweidanweikuaisushangxin，chixubaochixiaofeixinxiangan。

“sheng”tixianzaijiagedi，xingjiabigao。meiyouzhongjianshangzhuanchajiadetedian，shideqichanpinjiagejinshiyibanshangchaode60-80%。erguimoyoushiyoujinyibucushitoubupinpaizaijizhongcaigoushihuodegenggaodeyijiaquan。

“duo”、“kuai”、“hao”、“sheng”dejiachixia，2017—2022nianlingshiliangfanmoshishichangguimochengxianbaofashizengzhang，fuhezengzhanglvda114.6%。

yigezhideguanzhudexianxiangshi，liangfanlingshiyigengxiaobaozhuanghesanzhuangdefangshijinxingxiaoshou，wuxingzhongmanzulejiaodidechengbenchangshixinpindexuqiu，shiladongxiaoshoudeguanjianzhiyi。genjuyiziguojidediaoyan，you70%deshoufangzhebiaoshi，xiwanglingshifenliangdedaokongzhi。

laiyifenchuangshirenyuruifencengshuo，xianxiashitidianduiyulingshiqiyelaishuojuyoubuketidaidezhongyaoyiyi。tebieshizaichanpinshichang、yuyuedegouwutiyanhefuwu，yijijiaqiangpinpainianxingheyonghuzhongchengdufangmian，xianxiamendianyoushirengranmingxian。

3、量贩零食只是一门县城生意

sanwubujiushiyijialiangfanlingshidian，yijingchengweixiancheng、xiangzhenyidaodutedefengjingxian。

suizhierlaidelundiaoshi，liangfanlingshiboliduoxiaodebenzhi，shiqizhinengqihedixianchengshixiaofeixuqiu。

zheixianranhushileguoneipingjiapinpaidianfushichangdepubianguilv，nongcunbaoweichengshi。

yinaichaxingyeweili，gumingzuizaoshiyuzhejiangwenlingshidaxizhendeyijiaxiaodian，mixuebingchengdechuxingshihenanzhengzhouyijiamingwei“hanliubaobing”delengyindian，fengtouzuijingdebawangchajizeqiyuyunnan。

shishishang，dixianchengshixiaofeizhewangwangbigaoxianchengshixiaofeizhegengjiatiaoti，gengzhuzhongxingjiabi。

《zhongguojiatingjingmingxiaofeibaogao》xianshi，dangqian“jingmingxiaofei”qushimingxian，“xingjiabi”yijingchengweijiatingquntigoumaijuecezhongdeguanjianyinsu。

ciwaibaogaohaixianshi，xiaofeifencengqushimingxian，yierxianchengshizhujianquxianglixingxiaofei，ersansiwuxianchengshizaidianshangchixushenrudeshentouxia，kaishizaixiaofeizhongzhuiqiupinzhi，xiangshou“haohuobugui”dexiaofeishengji。

erqiegenjukaiduxiaofeizhezhishuzuixinfabudeerjiduzhongguolingshoubaogaoxianshi，2024nianshangbannian，zhongguoxiaofeizheyiranbaochijinchanghuadegouwuxiguan。

buyichengshicengjiweiqufen，liangfanlingshimanzudeshidangxiaxiaofeizheduilingshigouwu“duoyanghua”、“zhijiabi”、“jishimanzu”dezonghexuqiu，tamenyitongkuayuelediyuxianzhimairuletongyitiaoheliu。

liangfanlingshiyiwai，zhongguodewandianpinpaiyou6jiadoujianlizaixianchengdejibenpanzhishang。fenbieshihualaishi、zhengxinjipai、mixuebingcheng、jueweiyabo、lanzhoulamian、shaxianxiaochi，tamendoushicongxiaochengshiqijia，zhujianzhagendaoleyierxianchengshi。

jumeitibaodao，qianbujiumingminghenmangjituanyijiangmendiankaidaobeijing。

ertongguogaodeditusousuofaxian，lingshihenmang、zhaoyiminglingshizaishanghai、guangzhou、shenzhendengyixianchengshi，yijihangzhou、chengdou、tianjindengxinyixianchengshijinjiaodouyijingkaishelemendian，sihuyijingchuixianglexianggaoxianchengshijinjundehaojiao。

buguo，zhangqilaikan，xianchengrengranliangfanlingshiwandianguimodejibenpan。

1472gexianhe394gexianjishisuozuchengdexianyujingjitongyangyeshizhongguoshehuidejibenpan。genjuzuixinderenkoupucha，zhei1800duogexianyudiqu，changzhurenkouyuewei7.5yiren，zhandaolequanguorenkoudeyibanyishang。

shishishang，zhongguoyou6jiawandianpinpaidoujianlizaixianyujingjidejibenpanshang，fenbieshihualaishi、zhengxinjipai、mixuebingcheng、jueweiyabo、lanzhoulamian、shaxianxiaochi，tamendoushicongdixianchengshiqijia，zhujiantuozhandaogaoxianchengshi。

liangfanlingshiyushangshupinpailishudeyetaiyouzhexiangtongdejiyin，zheiyecongcemianyinzhengle，liangfanlingshibingfeizhinengtingliuzaixiancheng，zaiyixianchengshitongyangjubeiyidingdefazhankongjian。

4、量贩零食没有竞争壁

chanpintongzhihua、gongyingliangongkai、jishumenjiandi……yeyouguandianrenwei，liangfanlingshichenggongdeguanjianzaiyuqujingxiaoshanghua，yuchuantongshangchaobianlidiandeshangpingongjimeiyoumingxianchayi，meiyoujingzhengbilei。

zheixianranhushileyidian，guimoyoushibenshenjiushiyizhongbilei，shipinpaihuchenghedejichusheshi。

tongguoguimoyoushi，keyidiaodongzhenggechanyelian。youguimodeliangbiandailaichengbendezhibian，jinertixianzaishichangjiagejingzhengzhong：tongyangdechanpin，chengbengengdi；yiyangdejiage，lirungengda。

yinci，danchundedijiabingbushiliangfanlingshidejingzhengbilei，beihoudedichengbencaishi，youzongchengbenlingxianerdailaidedijiayoushi，nenggoufangzhiqianzaijingzhengduishoujinru。

jiuruzheiliangnianluzhengyaodongshanzaiqi，jibiancaiquletongyangdedafa，kudikafeiyeweinengchenggongtiaoluoqiyishouchuangbanderuixingkafei。

youcileitui，toubuqiye“paomaquandi”debeihou，shigongyinglianyoushideduijue，zheiyeshiliangfanlingshixingyedashasifangzhenzhengdeshengfushou。

ruanzhekoupinpai“haotemai”lianhechuangshirenzhangningcengbiaoshi，suanfashihaotemaihexindehuchenghe。qiluojishiliyongsuanfajinxingyouxiaoqiejingzhundedingjiahepeihuo，jiangzhixiaokongzhizai1%shenzhigengdidefanweiyinei，congerchengweijingyingchengbendeyibufen。

duiyuyingzhekoupinpai，suanfadezuoyongdadiyeshiruci。yimingminghenmangjituanlingpaodetoubuqiye，zishenguimoyoushibenjiujizanlepangdadexiaofeidashuju，diejiaxianshangtuangoudengshuzihuayewu，ruguozhongduanmendianyaojinyibuzengyi，biranyaoxiangshujuqudongdegongyinglianfenfajizhiyaoxiaoyi。

fangdaozhenggexiuxianshipinxingyezhongguancha，zheiyekeyidaobichanyelianshengji。xiaofeizhetongguoliangfanlingshidianfankuixuqiudaochanyelian，chanyelianduiyuchanpinshengchanxuqiufanyinggengkuai、gengjingzhun，shenzhixingchenglingshic2mmoshi。

zongshangsuoshu，liangfanlingshirengranchuzaifangxingweiaidezhuangkuang。

zhinengshuo，suizhexingyejingzhenggejubairehua，zhenghebinggoujiasufashengdedangxia，jingzhengdezhongxinyijingcongcaomangkuozhang、qiangzhandianpuweizhu，zhujianzhuanxiangjinggengxizuo、xiaolvyouxian，youhuapinleizuhe、zengjiaziyoupinpai、chuangxinchayihuadianxingdengdoujiangshiliangfanlingshifazhankeyijiejiandesilu。

zhiyunengfoujixutoushenliangfanlingshichuangye，yongyuanjizhuyijuhua：xuanzhiduile，shengyijiuchenggongleyiban！

美编 | 邢静

审核 | 颂文