文丨罗志恒 马家进 孙文婷

beijingshijian11yue26rishangwu，telangpuzaishejiaomeitifabuxiaoxi，yinweifentainidengdupinwenti，jiangduizhongguosuoyoushangpinjiazheng10%deguanshui。ciwai，telangpuhaicheng，jiangzaishangrendiyitianbianqianshuzongtongxingzhengling，duimoxigehejianadadesuoyoushangpinzhengshou25%deguanshui，zhidaoliangguocaiquyouxiaoxingdong，zuzhidupinhefeifayiminyongrumeiguo。shouxiaoxiyingxiang，meiyuanzhishukuaisuchonggao，renminbi、jianadayuan、moxigebisuoduimeiyuanhuilvzouruo。

meiguoduihuajiazhengguanshuishiweilaijinianzhongguojingjimianlindezuidawaibuchongjihefengxian，youbiyaorenzhenyanpanxingshibingjishituoshanyingdui，xingshigujigengyanjun、chubeicelvecainenggengchongfen。benwenzhongdianshulilemeiguojiazhengguanshuidefalvyijuhechengxu，fupanleshangyilunmeiguoduihuajiazhengguanshuidequanguocheng，duibenlunjiazhengguanshuidekenenglujingjinxingtuiyan，bingjiuzhongguoruheyingduitichujianyi。

一、“特朗普2.0”对华加征关税需遵循怎样的法定程序？

meiguoguohuizhangkongshuishoulifaquan，dantongguoduoxianglifajiangbufenquanlirangdujilezongtong。zongtongkeyidingchengdushangraoguoguohuizixingjuedingjiazhengguanshui，yinci“telangpu2.0”duihuajiazhengguanshuidefalvmenjianbingbutaigao。

jutilaikan，232tiaokuan、201tiaokuanhe301tiaokuandoufuyulezongtongtigaoguanshuidequanli，ieepashouquanzongtongkeyixuanbuguojiajinjizhuangtai，bingzaicijichushangcaiquchukouguanzhi、jiazhengguanshuidengcuoshi。zaishangjiezongtongrenqinei，telangpuyuanyin232tiaokuan、201tiaokuanhe301tiaokuanduihuajiazhengguanshui，genjuieepafabuxingzhengmingling，jianghuaweidengzhongguoqiyelieruchukouguanzhiduixiangmingdan。zhiyutelangpuxuanchengde“quxiaozhongguozuihuiguodaiyu”，zexuyaoguohuicanzhongliangyuantoupiaotongguo，liuchengxiangduifuza。

yishi《1962nianmaoyikuozhanfa》di232tiao。gaitiaokuanguidingruguojinkoushangpinweijimeiguodeguojiaanquan，zeyunxuzongtongcaiqujiazhengguanshuidengmaoyicuoshi。youyugaitiaolidui“guojiaanquan”meiyoumingquedingyi，yincizongtongjuyouyidingdeziyoucailiangquan。2018nian3yue，telangpuzhengfuyuanyin232tiaokuanduisuoyoujinkougangcaizhengshou25%deguanshui，duijinkoulvzhengshou10%deguanshui。

ershi《1974nianmaoyifa》di201tiao。ruoguojimaoyiweiyuanhui（itc）rendingbugongpingdejinkoujingzhengsunhaihuoweixiedeguoneichanye，zongtongyouquancaiqujiazhengguanshui、jinkoushuliangxianzhidengcuoshi。congyouxiaoqikan，xianzhicuoshideyouxiaoqibudechaoguo4nian；ruoshiyanzhangqixian，leijiyouxiaoqizongjibudechaoguo8nian。2018nian1yue，telangpuzhengfuyuanyin201tiaokuan，xuanbuduijinkoutaiyangnengdianchibanhexiyijizhengshoubaozhangxingguanshui。

sanshi《1974nianmaoyifa》di301tiao。ruguomeiguomaoyidaibiaobangongshi（ustr）rendingqitaguojiacunzaiweifanfalvhebuzhengdangdemaoyixingdong，bingduimeiguoshangyezaochengzuaihexianzhi，meiguozongtongkeduiwaiguo“bugongping”demaoyixingweijinxingbaofu。zongtongkeyicaiqudebaofucuoshibaokuotigaoguanshui、xianzhijinkou、tingzhimaoyihuhui、duimeiguojingneiwaiguofenzhijigoukezhengshuifeihuojiayixianzhideng。congyouxiaoqikan，301tiaokuanshezhile4nianfushenqi，ruguoliyixiangguanfangweixiangustrtichuyanxucuoshideshumianqingqiu，zexiangguanzhicaicuoshizai4nianqimanhouzhongzhi。2017nian8yue，telangpuzhengfuqidongduizhongguode“301diaocha”，2018-2019nianyijudiaochajieguo，xianhouduihuajiazheng4lunguanshui。2022niancuoshidaoqihou，baidengzhengfujixuweichibufenguanshui。2024nian5yue，baidengzhengfujinyibuzhenduizhongguodiandongqiche、bandaoti、dianchi、guanjiankuangwudeng180yimeiyuanjinkoushangpinjiazhengguanshui。

sishi1977nian《guojijinjijingjiquanlifa》（ieepa）di1702kuan。ieepashi《duidimaoyifa》（twea）deyanshenhexiuding，gaitiaokuanguidingzaiyingduilaiziguowaideduimeiguoguojiaanquan、waijiaozhengcehuojingjiderenheyichanghezhongdaweixieshi，meiguozongtongkeyixuanbuguojiajinjizhuangtai，duirenhewaiguohuoqiguominyongyouliyidecaichancaiqudongjie、xianzhi、kouliu、jinzhijinkoudengxingdong。meiguoguohuihezuigaofayuansuiyouquanfoujuehuotuifanzongtongyuanyinieepademingling，danshijianzhongcongweifashengguo。1971nian，nikesongzongtongcengyuanyinieepafaandeqianshentwea，xuanbuguojiajinrujinjizhuangtai，duisuoyoujinkoushangpinlinshi（90tian）zhengshou10%deguanshui，xiangmaoyihuobanshiya，mouqiumeiyuanbianzhi。meiguozhanlvemudedachenghou，bianquxiaole10%defujiaguanshuiyaoqiu。

zhiyutelangpuxuanchengde“quxiaozhongguozuihuiguodaiyu”，zexuyaoguohuicanzhongliangyuantoupiaotongguo，liuchengxiangduifuza。2023nian，meiguogonghedangyiyuancengtichu2023nianbande《zhongguomaoyiguanxifaan》，yaoqiuchexiaozhongguodezuihuiguodaiyu，danweihuoguohuitongguo。juwtocesuan，2023nianmeiguozuihuiguodaiyudepingjunguanshuishuilvwei3.3%，genjumeiguode《xiediaoguanshuibiao》，meiguofeizuihuiguopingjunguanshuishuilvyuewei42%。

二、复盘：“特朗普1.0”对华加征关税的全过程

“telangpu1.0”deduihuaguanshuizhengcechengxiansandatedian：yishizhengceluodisudujiaokuai。telangpushangrendedisigeyuejiuduibufenshangpinfadongmaoyidiaocha，dibageyuejiufadongleduizhongguode“301diaocha”，zairenqidediernianluxuqidongjiazhengguanshui。ershishangpinfugaifanweijiaoguang。shangyilunduizhongguojiazhengguanshuishejijiazhiyue3700yimeiyuanshangpin，zhan2018nianmeiguoduizhongguojinkoujinede68.7%，baokuozibenpin、zhongjianpinhebixuxiaofeipin。sanshijiazhengguanshuifudujiaoda。genjupiiecesuan，meiguoduihuajinkoupingjunguanshuishuilvcong2018nianchude3.1%zuigaozhangzhi2019niandide21%，suizhe2020nianchuzhongmeidiyijieduanjingmaoxieyidacheng，pingjunguanshuishuilvxiaofuhuiluozhi19.3%。

“telangpu1.0”deduihuajiazhengguanshuizhuyaofenweisanjieduan：diyijieduan，2017nianzhi2018nianchu，duimeiguojinkoudebufenshangpinjiazhengguanshui，lirugangtie、lv、xiyijideng，bufenguojia，danzhongguoshizhuyaojinkoulaiyuanguo；dierjieduan，2018-2019nian，duizhongguodandujiazhengsilunguanshui，yinfazhongmeimaoyimoca；disanjieduan，2020nianchu，zhongmeidachengdiyijieduanjingmaoxieyi，zantingduixinyilunshangpinjiazhengguanshui，duibufenshangpinjiazhengguanshuishuilvjianban。

jieduanyi：meiguoxiangguanbumenqidongmaoyidiaocha，duibufenshangpinjiazhengguanshui，bingbutedingzhenduizhongguo。2017nian4yue，genju232tiaokuan，telangpuyaoqiumeiguoshangwubuxianhoujiujinkougangtie、lvzhipinshifouyingxiangguojiaanquanqidongdiaocha。2018nian3yue，meiguoxuanbuduisuoyoujinkougangcaizhengshou25%deguanshui，duijinkoulvzhengshou10%deguanshui。2017nian5yue，meiguoguojimaoyiweiyuangenju201tiaokuanxianhouqidongduijinkouguangfudianchijizujianhexiyijidemaoyidiaocha。2018nian1yue，jingguo8geyuedediaocha，telangpuxuanbuduijinkouxiyijiheguangfudianchijizujianzhengshoubaozhangxingguanshui。itctongji，2016nian，zhongguoshimeiguogangtiezhipin、guangfudianchijizujianhexiyijidezuidajinkoulaiyuanguo，fenbiezhanqijinkouzongede37.5%、22.7%he46.3%，shilvjilvzhipindedierdajinkoulaiyuanguo，zhanbi16.3%。

“232diaocha”he“201diaocha”bingbuzhenduizhongguo，danyouyuzhongguoshixiangguanshangpindezhuyaojinkoulaiyuanguo，jiazhengguanshuidechongjitongyangbuxiao。zhizhi2017nian8yue，telangpuqianshubeiwangluzhishimeiguomaoyidaibiaobangongshikaiqiduizhongguode“301diaocha”，maoyibaohuzhuyidemaotouzhijiezhuanxiangzhongguo。

jieduaner：meiguoduihuajiazheng“301guanshui”，zhongmeimaoyimocazhengshikaishi。genju“301”diaochajieguo，2018-2019nian，telangpuzhengfuxuanbusilunduihuajiazhengguanshuiqingdan，jutineirongruxia：

qingdan1：duijiazhi340yimeiyuanchanpinjiazheng25%deguanshui，zhuyaoshejijishumijixingshangpin。2018nian6yue15ri，meiguoxuanbudui340yimeiyuandezhongguoshangpinzhengshou25%deguanshui，yu2018nian7yue6riqizhixing。anhtsbaweishubianmafenlei，gongbaohan818geguanshuizimuchanpin，zhuyaoshejijixieshebei、dianqishebei、yunshushebeihejingmishebeidengjishumijixingchanpin。

qingdan2：duijiazhi160yimeiyuanchanpinjiazheng25%deguanshui，zaiqingdan1dejichushang，fugaifanweikuodazhisuliaojiqizhipin、gangtiezhipin。2018nian8yue3ri，meiguoxuanbudui160yimeiyuandezhongguoshangpinjiazheng25%deguanshui，yu2018nian8yue23riqizhixing。anhtsbaweishubianmafenlei，gongbaohan279geguanshuizimuchanpin，jibaokuoqingdan1zhongshejidejixieshebei、dianqishebei、yunshushebeihejingmishebeidengjishumijixingchanpin，haixinzenglesuliaojiqizhipin、gangtiezhipindengchanpin。

qingdan3：duijiazhi2000yimeiyuanchanpinjiazheng25%deguanshui，chubixupinwai，jihubaohanmeiguozizhongguojinkoudesuoyouzhuyaoshangpin。2018nian9yue18ri，meiguoxuanbudui2000yimeiyuandezhongguoshangpinjiazheng25%deguanshui，yu2018nian9yue24riqizhixing。anhtsbaweishubianmafenlei，gongbaohan5745geguanshuizimuchanpin。yuqianlianglunqingdanbi，disanlunqingdanfugaishangpinfanweijiaoguang，anhsliangweishubianmafenlei，gongsheji82zhangshangpin，chulefuzhuang、xie、yusan、wanju、yaowu、shujidengbixupin，meiguozizhongguojinkoudezhuyaoshangpinjunbeilierubenlunjiazhengguanshuidemingdanzhong。

qingdan4：dui3000yimeiyuanqingdanshangpinjiazheng15%deguanshui，fugaifuzhuang、xiedengshenghuobixupin。2019nian8yue15ri，meiguoxuanbuduicongzhongguojinkoudeyue3000yimeiyuanshangpinjiazheng10%guanshui，fenliangpizi2019nian9yue1ri、12yue15riqishishi。2019nian8yue28ri，ustrxuanbujiangjiazhengguanshuishuilvyouyuandingde10%tigaozhi15%。diyipiqingdanbaokuoyue1200yimeiyuanshangpin，anhtsbaweishubianmafenlei，gongbaohan3229geguanshuizimuchanpin，jibenfugaileqiansanlunqingdanzhongweihangaidesuoyouchanpin，youqishifuzhuang、xie、yusan、wanju、shujidengxiaofeipin。dierpiqingdanbaokuoyue1800yishangpin，zhuyaoshiduifuzhuang、xiedengbixupinjiazhengguanshui，baohan542geguanshuizimuchanpin。

jieduansan：zhongmeidachengdiyijieduanjingmaoxieyi，zantingduixinyilunshangpinjiazhengguanshui，duibufenshangpinjiazhengguanshuishuilvjianban。2020nian1yue15ri，zhongmeishuangfangzaimeiguohuashengdunqianshu《zhonghuarenmingongheguozhengfuhemeilijianhezhongguozhengfujingjimaoyixieyi》。genjuxieyiyaoqiu，meiguoquxiaoduiqingdan4zhongdedierpiqingdanshangpinjiazhengguanshui，qiezi2020nian2yue14riqidiyipiqingdanjiazhengguanshuicong15%jiangzhi7.5%。tongshi，weiyingduixinguanyiqingchongji，huanjieguoneigongyinglianyali，meiguoluxuduigongyelingbujian、qichelingbujian、bufenhuaxuepinheyiliaopinjinxingguanshuihuomian。

三、沙盘推演：本轮美国对华加征关税的可能路径

（一）影响特朗普关税政策的三个因素

一是美国总统加征关税需要满足的法律条件。232tiaokuan、201tiaokuan、301tiaokuanyijiieepadoufuyulezongtongjiazhengguanshuidequanli。qizhong，qian3tiaofaanxuyaoxianyoushangwubu、guojimaoyiweiyuanhuihuomaoyidaibiaobangongshiqidongmaoyidiaocha，zongtonggenjudiaochajieguobanbuxingzhengfaling。youyudiaochahaofeishijian，tongguomaoyidiaochajiazhengguanshuibunenglijishengxiao。ruoshiyuanyinieepaqidongguojiajingjizhuangtai，zewuxudiaocha，kelijishengxiao，qiewuxutongguoguohui，linghuoxinggenggao，shijianshanggengkuai。ruoquxiaozhongguodezuihuiguodaiyu，zexuguohuitoupiaotongguo，liuchengjiaofuza。

二是美国通胀的掣肘，要注意加征关税的覆盖范围、幅度和节奏。10yuemeiguocpitongbizengzhang2.6%，jiaoshangyuehuisheng0.2gebaifendian，baoweiercheng“tongzhangjinzhanbiyuqigengdianbo”。genjushangyilunjiazhengguanshuidejingyan，guanshuichengbenzhuyaozhuanjiadaolemeiguodexiaofeizhehejinkoushangshenshang，jiazhengguanshuijiangjixutuigaomeiguotongzhang，zengjiajuminshenghuochengben。bidesenguojijingjiyanjiusuo（piie）yuce，ruotelangpuduizhongguojinkoushangpinzhengshou60%deguanshui，yijiyinfazhongguofanzhi，jiangdaozhi2025nianmeiguotongzhanglvjiaojizhunshuipingshangsheng0.7gebaifendian。weijiangdiduiguoneijuminheqiyedechongji，“301”guanshuiqingdandeqian3lunzhuyaojizhongzaizhongjianpinhezibenpin，di4luncaiduifuzhuang、xiedengxiaofeipinjiazhengguanshui，zhihouyoujiangbeng、dianji、qichelingbujiandengzhongjianpinnaruguanshuihuomianqingdan。

三是来自中国的反制措施。2018nianyilai，zhongguotongguoduimeijiazhengguanshuihechukouguanzhidengfangshiyuyifanzhi。yifangmian，zhongguotongyangduimeifaqi4lunjiazhengguanshuidefanzhicuoshi，qizhengshijian、guanshuishuilvdengyumeifangduihuajibenyizhi，pingjunguanshuishuilvcong2018nianchude8%shengzhi2019niandide21.8%。fanzhiqingdanshejizongjiazhiyue1370yimeiyuandeshangpin，zhan2018nianzhongguoduimeiguojinkoujinede88.3%。lingyifangmian，zhongguohaiduixitudengguanjiancailiaohejishushishichukouguanzhi。xiangbi“telangpu1.0”shiqi，“telangpu2.0”duihuajingjizhengcedefugaifanweigengguang、dayalidugengda，yeshibihuiyinfazhongguogengqiangliedefanzhi。yinci，telangpuchutaizhengceqian，xuyaobazhongguodefanyingnaruqizhengcekaoliangfanweinei。

（二）关税政策的路径推演

zuihuaiqingxingxia，meiguokenengduizhongguosuoyoushangpindeguanshuishuilvtigaozhi60%。telangpuzaizongtongjingxuanzhongduociqiangdiao，jihuaduisuoyouzhongguojinkoushangpinzhengshou60%deguanshui，dankaolvdaoguanshuizhengceduimeiguojingjidefanshiyijizhongguodefanzhicuoshi，ciqingxingchuxiandekenengxingbuda。piieyuce，ruotelangpujiazheng60%bingyinfazhongguofanzhi，yujizai2025niantuoleimeiguogdpxiajiang0.43gebaifendian。zaidangqianjingjizhouqijishichanghuanjingxia，zheixiedaijiahuoxushimeiguobunengchengshouzhizhong。

更可能的情形是，美国对华平均关税税率提高至40%-50%，对部分商品加征超60%的关税。yishicankaomeiguofeizuihuiguodaiyudeguanshuishuiping，pingjunguanshuishuilvwei42%。ershicankao“telangpu1.0”shiqidejingyan，meiguoduihuapingjunguanshuishuilvcong3.1%zuiduotigaozhi21%。“telangpu2.0”jiangtuixinggengjijindeguanshuizhengce，yujijiangewaijiazheng20%-30%deguanshui，tuidongmeiguoduihuapingjunguanshuishuilvtigaozhi40%-50%。

综合美国总统加征关税需要满足的法律条件、对美国经济的冲击以及中国可能的反制措施，我们认为，“特朗普2.0”的关税政策可能通过以下路径展开：

第一步，特朗普上任初期，直接援引IEEPA对中国加征10%的关税。meiguozongtongkezhijieyuanyinieepajiazhengguanshui，binglijishengxiao。2019niantelangpucengweixieyaoshiyongieepaduimoxigejinkoushangpinjiazhengguanshui，yaoqiuqicaiqugengduocuoshizuzhifeifayiminhedupinliurumeiguo。beijingshijian11yue26ri，telangpuzaishejiaomeitishangbiaoshi，weidajifeifayimin、fanzuihedupin，jiangzaiqishangrenshourilijiduilaizimoxigehejianadadesuoyoujinkoushangpinzhengshou25%deguanshui。ciwai，yejiangduilaizizhongguodesuoyoujinkoushangpinjiazheng10%deguanshui，suiweishengmingjutizhixingshijian，dancankaomoxigehejianadadeqingkuang，yujiyejiangzaiqishangrenhoubujiushixing。

第二步，启动新一轮“301调查”，分阶段对华加征关税，最快或于2025年二季度宣布，年中实施，之后再逐步加码。cankaoshangyilunjingyan，“telangpu1.0”shiqizhuyaotongguofadong“301diaocha”duizhongguotedingshangpinjiazhengguanshui，bingduichongjimeiguogongyingliandeshangpinjinxingguanshuihuomian。“telangpu2.0”kenengjixuyanyongcifangshiduizhongdianshangpinjinyibutigaoguanshui，bimianduisuoyoushangpin“yidaoqie”，duimeiguoxiaofeizhezaochengchongji。congshijianshangkan，shangyilunde3cimaoyidiaochacongqidongdaoxuanbujiazhengguanshuihaoshi8-10geyue，suiranqidongxinyilunmaoyidiaochakeyiyuanyinzhiqiandebufenjieguo，suoduandiaochashijian，danguanshuizhengceshengxiaoshijianzuikuaikenengyaodao2025nianerjidu。

（三）“特朗普2.0”的关税政策还将显著升级

一是对进口商品溯源，打击中国商品通过第三方转出口至美国的行为。zhongmeimaoyimocasuiranxianzhilezhongguoduimeiguodezhijiechukou，danzhongguodebufenshangpinrengtongguomoxigedengdisanfangjinxingzhuankoumaoyi。2017-2023nian，meiguoduimoxigejinkoujinezengzhang52%，tongqizhongguoduimoxigechukoujinezengzhang127%。telangpuzaizongtongjingxuanqijiancengbiaoshi，jiangduizhongguozhongzhuanmoxigechukoushangpinjiazhengguanshui，dajizhongguoshangpintongguodisanguochukoudaomeiguodebishuixingwei。

二是对低货值的跨境电商包裹进行拦截。genjumeiguo《2015nianmaoyibianlihuahemaoyizhifafaan》，meirenmeitiankeyijinkoubuchaoguo800meiyuandeshangpinerwuxujiaonaguanshui。shouyiyu“xiaoehuomian”guize，zhongguokuajingdianshangmaoyikuaisufazhan，2023nianzhongguokuajingdianshangchukou1.83wanyiyuan，zengzhang19.6%，yishein、temuweidaibiaodekuajingdianshangpingtaixunsujueqi。2024nian9yue，meiguobaigongguanwanggongbu，guoqushinianjian，tongguoxiaoehuomianjinrumeiguodehuowushuliangcongnianyue1.4yijianjizengzhichaoguo10yijian。baidengzhengfubiaoshijiangjiaqiangdui“xiaoehuomian”baoguodejianguan，youqishiduilaizizhongguodianzishangwupingtaidehuowu。telangpudeguanshuizhengcegengjijin，yujizaiqirenqineijiangshoujinhuoquxiao800meiyuanyixiabaoguomianshuidezhengce。

三是可能对全球所有进口商品征收10%的基准关税，将导致全球贸易活动萎缩，冲击中国的中间品和资本品出口。zhongmeimaoyimocayilai，zhongguodezhongjianpinhezibenpinchukoukuaisuzengzhang，ladongzhongguochukouzhanquanqiuchukoufenezaichuangxingao。2023nianwoguozibenpinhezhongjianpinchukoujinezhanchukouzongede7chengzuoyou，chukoujingzhengyoushicongxiaofeipinxiangzhongjianpinhezibenpinzhuanyi。telangpujihuaduisuoyoumeiguojinkoushangpinzhengshou10%dejizhunguanshui，jiangdaozhiquanqiumaoyiguimoxiahua，jinerchongjizhongguoduiqitajingjitidezhongjianpinhezibenpinchukou。zhikuyingguoguojiajingjiheshehuiyanjiusuo（niesr）yuce，telangpuduiquanqiuzhengshou10%deguanshuiyijiduizhongguozhengshou60%deguanshui，jiangzaiwunianneituoleiquanqiugdpweisuo2%，maoyiliangxiajiang6%，moxige、jianada、ouzhou、hanguo、ribendengyumeiguolianximiqiedemaoyihuobanjunjiangzaoshoujudasunshi。

四、中国应如何应对？

“telangpu2.0”jiangduizhongguojingjihezichanjiagedengdepingwenyunxingchanshengbuliyingxiang：yishizhijiechongjizhongguochukou，ershizhiyuezhongguogaokejilingyufazhan，sanshirenminbihuilvheagukenengchengya，sishiduizhongguocaizhenghehuobizhengcezaochengganrao。

mianduitelangpuzaiduduihuajiazhengguanshui，zhongguoyingchenzhelengjing，chutaiyoulidefanzhicuoshi，tigaoneibuzhengceheyuqidequedingxing，ningjugongshi、gongdunanguan，jutikecongguanshuifanzhi、kuodaneixu、chukoubujuduoyuanhua、qiyechuhaiyuguojiliyigongtongtidengfangmianrushou。

一是及时出台对美国关税政策的反制措施，增加与美国的谈判筹码。cankao“telangpu1.0”shiqidejingyan，zhongguoketongguoduimeijiazhengguanshuihechukouguanzhidengfangshiyuyifanzhi。“telangpu2.0”duihuajiazhengguanshuidefugaifanweigengguang、lidugengda，zhongguodefanzhicuoshiyeyaochixushengji。jinxienianwoguochutaileyixiliejuyoufanzhixiaoguodefalvfagui，baokuo《zhonghuarenmingongheguofanwaiguozhicaifa》、《zuduanwaiguofalvyucuoshibudangyuwaishiyongbanfa》deng，fengfuleyingduiwaiguoqishixingcuoshiwentidegongjuxiang。weilaiyaojinyibufengfuzhengcegongjuxiang，tigaofanzhicuoshidelinghuoxingheyouxiaoxing，shixianduimaoyibaohuzhuyideyoulidaji，tongshizengjiayumeiguodemaoyitanpanchouma。

二是在外部环境不稳定性不确定性上升的背景下，要加大财政货币逆周期调节力度，积极扩大内需，对冲外需可能的下滑。buyaojiujieyuyaotouzihaishixiaofei，touzihexiaofeidouyao，touzizaiyuzhaodaoyoujingjihuozheshehuixiaoyidetouzilingyu。jianyi2025nianchizidadantupo3%，yicixingdafuzengjiachiziguimo；caizhengzhichujiegouxiangyiliao、jiaoyuheyanglaodenggonggongxiaofeilingyuqingxie，jiejuejuminhouguzhiyou，tigaojuminxiaofeiyiyuan。huobizhengcefangmian，yonghaozonglianghejiegouxingzhengcegongju，gaijiangzhunjiangzhun，gaijiangxijiangxi，tizhenjuminxiaofeiheqiyetouzixuqiu；jiadaduidaguimoshebeigengxinhexiaofeipinyijiuhuanxindejinrongzhichi。

三是出口布局和出口竞争力方面，有必要进一步加速出口区域布局调整，提高出口的综合竞争力。genjushangyilunmeiguojiazhengguanshuidejingyan，meiguoduihuajiazhengguanshuisuiranyingxiangzhongguoduimeiguodezhijiechukou，dankeyitongguozhuankoumaoyi、jiangshangpinzuzhuanghuanjiewaiqian、qiyechuhaidengfangshiyingdui。tongshizhongguoyezaizhelikuozhanxindemaoyihuoban，tebieshi“yidaiyilu”guojia。

四是企业出海与国际利益共同体构建方面，tuidongqiyewenbu、youxuchuhai，jianghexinhuanjiehegaofujiazhihuanjieliuzaizhongguo、jiangzhongdiduanchanyelianzhubuyixiangzhongxibudiquhefazhanzhongjingjiti，zhubukuodayuguangda“yidaiyilu”guojiahediqudegongtongliyi。

（作者罗志恒，系粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长；马家进，为粤开证券首席宏观分析师；孙文婷，为粤开证券研究助理。文章仅代表作者观点。）