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黎以停火生效后,伊朗将成以色列打压重点

baidengqiangdiao,meiguobuhuipaizuozhanbuduiqianwanglibanen。

2024年11月26日,以色列继续轰炸黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特南部。图片来源:视觉中国

记者 | 安晶

dangdishijian2024nian11yue27rilingchen4dian,yiselieyulibanenzhenzhudangdachengdetinghuoxieyizhengshishengxiao,shuangfangchixujin14geyuedezhandouzanshitingzhi。

zhousanzaoshang,youdapicheliangconglibanenxinanbugangshixidunchufaqianwanglinanbu。yiselieguofangjunzedunculibanenjuminzanshibuyaofanhuilinanbu,zhichusuizhetinghuoxieyishengxiao,yiseliejunduijiangjixuzailinanbu“daiming”。

jiuzaitinghuozhengshishengxiaoqian,yiselieduilibanenshoudoubeilutekuanghonglanzha,zaiduanduan2fenzhongneikongxilebeilutenanjiaode20gemubiao。

yiseliezonglibenyaming·neitaniyahujinggao,suirantinghuoxieyidacheng,danzhiyaolibanenzhenzhudangweifanxieyi,yiseliejianglike“gongji”。

ju《》baodao,suiranyiseliezhengfumeiyouzaitinghuoshengxiaoqiangongbuxieyineirong,dangenjuyiselieguanyuanhemeiguozongtongyuesefu·baidengtouludexinxi,tinghuojiangfenjieduanzhixing。

tinghuoxieyishedingle60tiandeguoduqi。zai60tiannei,libanenzhengfujiangxianglitaniheyinandiqupaichu5000mingshibing,huifuduilinanbudekongzhi。

zaitinghuoyikaishi,yiseliebuhuilikeconglinanbuchejun,ershidenglibanenzhengfujunqianwanglinanbuhoucaizhubuchejun。libanenzhenzhudangzexuyaojiangqichengyuanhewuqizhuangbeichedaolitaniheyibei。libanenzhengfufuzequebaozhenzhudangzailinanbudejunshisheshiquanbuchaichu,qiebudezhongjian。

图片来源:美国国际战略研究中心

litaniheshilibanenzuizhangdeheliu,gaihededongxizouxiangduanyu“lanxian”pingxing,juli“lanxian”yue30gongli。“lanxian”shi2006niandediercilibanenzhanzhenghouyoulianheguohuadingdeliyilinshitinghuoxian。

genju2006nianlianheguoanlihuidedi1701haojueyi,zailitanihenanandao“lanxian”zhijiandequyunei,zhiyoulibanenzhengfunengbushuwuzhuangrenyuanhewuqi,lianheguozhulibanenlinshibudui(lianlibudui)zaigaidiqujiandutinghuo。danjueyibingmeiyouwanquanzhixing,libanenzhenzhudangjixuzailitaniheyinandiqushejunshijudian,yiseliezepinfanxianggaidiqupaiwurenjihezhanji。

weiquebaocicidetinghuonengdedaozhixing,meiguohefaguojiangyulianlibuduiyitongfuzejiandu,faguoshilibanendeqianzongzhuguo。jianduxiaozuhaijiangquebaolibanenzhengfujunjieshousuoxuxunlian、huodezugouzhuangbeiyizhixingtinghuoxieyi。baidengqiangdiao,meiguobuhuipaizuozhanbuduiqianwanglibanen,jinshiweilibanenzhengfujuntigongjunshizhichi。

chucizhiwai,qitaweigongbumingchengdeguojiahaijiangshelijunshijishuweiyuanhui,weilibanenzhengfujuntigongewaijingjihejunshiyuanzhu。

zaitanpanzhong,yiselieyaoqiuyidangaiguorenweilibanenzhenzhudangweifanxieyi,yiseliejiangyouquanzixingduilibanenfadonggongji。libanenzhengfujianjuefandui,zhizegaiyaoqiuqinfanlibanenzhuquan。zuizhongxieyizhongmeiyoubaokuogaitiaokuan,danmeiguolingwaiqicaolefujiawenjianzhichiyiseliedeziweiquan。

ju,fujiawenjianmeiyoumingquezhichiyiseliezixinggongjilibanen,ershiyaoqiuyiseliexianxiangguojijianduxiaozubaogaokenengcunzaideweifantinghuoqingkuang,jianduxiaozuchengyuanjiangtaolunxiangguanqingkuangdeyanzhongchengdu。meiguotongshiyezhichiyiseliezaimianlin“poqieweixie”shilikejinxingfanji。

zhouerwan,yiselieanquanneigeyi10piaozancheng1piaofanduidejieguopizhunleliyitinghuoxieyi,weiyitouchufanduipiaodeshiyiselieguojiaanquanbuzhang、jiyouyizhengdangyoutaililiangdanglingdaorenyitamaer·ben·geweier。danben·geweiermeiyouweixieyaodaiyoutaililiangdangtuichulianhezhengfu。

ciqianyouxiaoxichengneitaniyahuzhunbeidengdaotangnade·telangpuxuanshijiurenmeiguozongtongzhishi,baliyitinghuozuoweiliwuxianjitelangpu。danyiselieguanyuantoulu,baidengzhengfuyiyanhuantigongyuanzhuwuzihelianheguoanlihuizhicaijueyiweiweixie,yaoqiuyiseliejinkuaidachengxieyi。

duiyujijianglirendebaidengeryan,liyitinghuoxieyiyeshitazaizhongdongwentishangliuxiadeweishubuduodezhengji。yiselieanquanneigepizhunxieyihou,fabiaojianghua,chengziji“conglaimeiyouyiketingzhixunqiuheping”。

baidengyuneitaniyahuhelibanenkanshouzhengfuzonglinajibu·mikatijinxingletonghua,houliangzhejunxuanbugezizhengfujieshoutinghuoxieyi。zaitinghuotanpanzhong,libanenzhengfushilibanenzhenzhudangdezhongjianren。

baidengbiaoshi,cicitinghuoxieyiyizairanggefang“yongjiutingzhididuixingdong”,libanenzhenzhudangshengxiadejunshililiangyijingbuzuyizaiciweixieyiseliedeanquan。

neitaniyahuquemeiyouzhanxianchuxiangtongdeleguan。tajinggao,ruguolibanenzhenzhudangweifanxieyibingshituzhongxinwuzhuang,“womenhuigongji”;ruguolibanenzhenzhudangzailiyibianjingzhongjian“kongbuzhuyijijian”、fashehuojiandan、wajuedidao、yunshudaodan,yiselie“douhuigongji”。

libanenyuyiseliedejinzhangguanxiyoulaiyijiu。yiseliejianguohouyualaboguojiabutingjiaozhan,zai1982niandediwucizhongdongzhanzhengzhong,yiselieruqinlibanen,6tianneijiuzhanlinglelibanensifenzhiyidelingtu。cihou,liangguochongtubuduanbingyu2006nianbaofalediercilibanenzhanzheng,yiselieyulibanenzhenzhudangdadachushou。

libanenzhenzhudangbeiyiseliedingweikongbuzuzhi,dangaizuzhishilibanenzhongyaodezhengzhihejunshililiang,yihefazhengdangshenfenzailibanenyihuicanzheng。dedaoyilangzhichidelibanenzhenzhudangyeshizhongdongpojuyingxianglidefeizhengfuwuzhuang,zaixuliyaneizhanzhongxiezhuxuzhengfuzuozhan。

neitaniyahucheng,yiseliecicitongyiyulibanenzhenzhudangtinghuodeyigezhongyaoyuanyinshiyiseliejiangbazhongdianfangzaiyingduiyilangweixieshang,dantajujuetoulujutixiangqing。yilangwaijiaobuyijingduiliyitinghuobiaoshihuanying,zhongshenduilibanenzhengfudejiandingzhichi。

telangpudiyirenqi,meiguoduiyilangshishilejixianshiya,zhasileyilangyisilangemingweidui“shengchenglv”zhihuiguansulaimannibingcuchengyiselieyualaboguojiahejieyizujianfanyilanglianmeng。telangpuzhongfanbaigonghou,yilangjiangzaicichengweizhongdiandayaduixiang。

neitaniyahubiaoshi,tongyitinghuodeqitalianggeyuanyinfenbieweirangyiseliejunduixiuzhengyijigulibalesitanyisilandikangyundong(hamasi)。

suiranbaidengzhunbeichenliyidachengtinghuozhijizaicituidongbayitinghuo,danyiseliehehamasishuangfangdoumeiyouzhanshichurenhetinghuoyiyuan。

yiseliezhengzaijiadaduijiashabeibudexiji,yizaidangdijianlihuanchongqu。、zongjiaoyoutaifuguozhuyizhedangbisalie·simotelihezhouyihuyuyiseliezhongxinzhanlingjiasha,bingzai2nianneitongguo“ziyuanyimin”jiangjiashadebalesitanrenkoujianshaoyiban。

benlunliyichongtushiyu2023nian10yuedebayichongtu。weiceyinghamasi,libanenzhenzhudangjihumeitianzaibianjingdiquyuyiseliejiaohuo。jinnianyilai,shuangfangxingdongshengji,libanenzhenzhudangduiyiseliebeibufadongdaguimowurenjihehuojiandanxiji,yiseliezeduilibanenfadongdimianjingongbinglianxudasizhenzhudanggaoceng。

zaichongtuzuikaishi,libanenzhenzhudangjianchibayiselietingzhiduijiashaderuqinzuoweigaizuzhitingzhixijiyiseliedeqiantitiaojian。dansuizheliyijiaoshoushengji、zhongduogaocengsangsheng,libanenzhenzhudangyibuzaibajieshubayichongtuzuoweijieshuliyichongtudeqianti。

jiezhimuqian,liyichongtuzaochenglibanen3823rensangsheng,chaoguo120wanjuminbeipocheli。yiseliefangmianyou70duorensangsheng,6wanduojumincheli。yiselieduilibanendekongxihedimianxingdonghaijilibanenzaochenglejudajingjisunshi。

shijieyinxingbenyuegongbudebaogaoyuji,libanenzaoshoudesunshichaoguo85yimeiyuan。libanennanbujin10wanzhuzhaibeihui,16.6wanrenyinchongtushiye,lvyouye、fuwuye、nongyeheshangyezaoshouzuidachongji。shouliyichongtuyingxiang,libanenjinnianshijiguoneishengchanzongzhijiangdafuxiahua。

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黎以停火生效后,伊朗将成以色列打压重点

baidengqiangdiao,meiguobuhuipaizuozhanbuduiqianwanglibanen。

2024年11月26日,以色列继续轰炸黎巴嫩首都贝鲁特南部。图片来源:视觉中国

记者 | 安晶

dangdishijian2024nian11yue27rilingchen4dian,yiselieyulibanenzhenzhudangdachengdetinghuoxieyizhengshishengxiao,shuangfangchixujin14geyuedezhandouzanshitingzhi。

zhousanzaoshang,youdapicheliangconglibanenxinanbugangshixidunchufaqianwanglinanbu。yiselieguofangjunzedunculibanenjuminzanshibuyaofanhuilinanbu,zhichusuizhetinghuoxieyishengxiao,yiseliejunduijiangjixuzailinanbu“daiming”。

jiuzaitinghuozhengshishengxiaoqian,yiselieduilibanenshoudoubeilutekuanghonglanzha,zaiduanduan2fenzhongneikongxilebeilutenanjiaode20gemubiao。

yiseliezonglibenyaming·neitaniyahujinggao,suirantinghuoxieyidacheng,danzhiyaolibanenzhenzhudangweifanxieyi,yiseliejianglike“gongji”。

ju《》baodao,suiranyiseliezhengfumeiyouzaitinghuoshengxiaoqiangongbuxieyineirong,dangenjuyiselieguanyuanhemeiguozongtongyuesefu·baidengtouludexinxi,tinghuojiangfenjieduanzhixing。

tinghuoxieyishedingle60tiandeguoduqi。zai60tiannei,libanenzhengfujiangxianglitaniheyinandiqupaichu5000mingshibing,huifuduilinanbudekongzhi。

zaitinghuoyikaishi,yiseliebuhuilikeconglinanbuchejun,ershidenglibanenzhengfujunqianwanglinanbuhoucaizhubuchejun。libanenzhenzhudangzexuyaojiangqichengyuanhewuqizhuangbeichedaolitaniheyibei。libanenzhengfufuzequebaozhenzhudangzailinanbudejunshisheshiquanbuchaichu,qiebudezhongjian。

图片来源:美国国际战略研究中心

litaniheshilibanenzuizhangdeheliu,gaihededongxizouxiangduanyu“lanxian”pingxing,juli“lanxian”yue30gongli。“lanxian”shi2006niandediercilibanenzhanzhenghouyoulianheguohuadingdeliyilinshitinghuoxian。

genju2006nianlianheguoanlihuidedi1701haojueyi,zailitanihenanandao“lanxian”zhijiandequyunei,zhiyoulibanenzhengfunengbushuwuzhuangrenyuanhewuqi,lianheguozhulibanenlinshibudui(lianlibudui)zaigaidiqujiandutinghuo。danjueyibingmeiyouwanquanzhixing,libanenzhenzhudangjixuzailitaniheyinandiqushejunshijudian,yiseliezepinfanxianggaidiqupaiwurenjihezhanji。

weiquebaocicidetinghuonengdedaozhixing,meiguohefaguojiangyulianlibuduiyitongfuzejiandu,faguoshilibanendeqianzongzhuguo。jianduxiaozuhaijiangquebaolibanenzhengfujunjieshousuoxuxunlian、huodezugouzhuangbeiyizhixingtinghuoxieyi。baidengqiangdiao,meiguobuhuipaizuozhanbuduiqianwanglibanen,jinshiweilibanenzhengfujuntigongjunshizhichi。

chucizhiwai,qitaweigongbumingchengdeguojiahaijiangshelijunshijishuweiyuanhui,weilibanenzhengfujuntigongewaijingjihejunshiyuanzhu。

zaitanpanzhong,yiselieyaoqiuyidangaiguorenweilibanenzhenzhudangweifanxieyi,yiseliejiangyouquanzixingduilibanenfadonggongji。libanenzhengfujianjuefandui,zhizegaiyaoqiuqinfanlibanenzhuquan。zuizhongxieyizhongmeiyoubaokuogaitiaokuan,danmeiguolingwaiqicaolefujiawenjianzhichiyiseliedeziweiquan。

ju,fujiawenjianmeiyoumingquezhichiyiseliezixinggongjilibanen,ershiyaoqiuyiseliexianxiangguojijianduxiaozubaogaokenengcunzaideweifantinghuoqingkuang,jianduxiaozuchengyuanjiangtaolunxiangguanqingkuangdeyanzhongchengdu。meiguotongshiyezhichiyiseliezaimianlin“poqieweixie”shilikejinxingfanji。

zhouerwan,yiselieanquanneigeyi10piaozancheng1piaofanduidejieguopizhunleliyitinghuoxieyi,weiyitouchufanduipiaodeshiyiselieguojiaanquanbuzhang、jiyouyizhengdangyoutaililiangdanglingdaorenyitamaer·ben·geweier。danben·geweiermeiyouweixieyaodaiyoutaililiangdangtuichulianhezhengfu。

ciqianyouxiaoxichengneitaniyahuzhunbeidengdaotangnade·telangpuxuanshijiurenmeiguozongtongzhishi,baliyitinghuozuoweiliwuxianjitelangpu。danyiselieguanyuantoulu,baidengzhengfuyiyanhuantigongyuanzhuwuzihelianheguoanlihuizhicaijueyiweiweixie,yaoqiuyiseliejinkuaidachengxieyi。

duiyujijianglirendebaidengeryan,liyitinghuoxieyiyeshitazaizhongdongwentishangliuxiadeweishubuduodezhengji。yiselieanquanneigepizhunxieyihou,fabiaojianghua,chengziji“conglaimeiyouyiketingzhixunqiuheping”。

baidengyuneitaniyahuhelibanenkanshouzhengfuzonglinajibu·mikatijinxingletonghua,houliangzhejunxuanbugezizhengfujieshoutinghuoxieyi。zaitinghuotanpanzhong,libanenzhengfushilibanenzhenzhudangdezhongjianren。

baidengbiaoshi,cicitinghuoxieyiyizairanggefang“yongjiutingzhididuixingdong”,libanenzhenzhudangshengxiadejunshililiangyijingbuzuyizaiciweixieyiseliedeanquan。

neitaniyahuquemeiyouzhanxianchuxiangtongdeleguan。tajinggao,ruguolibanenzhenzhudangweifanxieyibingshituzhongxinwuzhuang,“womenhuigongji”;ruguolibanenzhenzhudangzailiyibianjingzhongjian“kongbuzhuyijijian”、fashehuojiandan、wajuedidao、yunshudaodan,yiselie“douhuigongji”。

libanenyuyiseliedejinzhangguanxiyoulaiyijiu。yiseliejianguohouyualaboguojiabutingjiaozhan,zai1982niandediwucizhongdongzhanzhengzhong,yiselieruqinlibanen,6tianneijiuzhanlinglelibanensifenzhiyidelingtu。cihou,liangguochongtubuduanbingyu2006nianbaofalediercilibanenzhanzheng,yiselieyulibanenzhenzhudangdadachushou。

libanenzhenzhudangbeiyiseliedingweikongbuzuzhi,dangaizuzhishilibanenzhongyaodezhengzhihejunshililiang,yihefazhengdangshenfenzailibanenyihuicanzheng。dedaoyilangzhichidelibanenzhenzhudangyeshizhongdongpojuyingxianglidefeizhengfuwuzhuang,zaixuliyaneizhanzhongxiezhuxuzhengfuzuozhan。

neitaniyahucheng,yiseliecicitongyiyulibanenzhenzhudangtinghuodeyigezhongyaoyuanyinshiyiseliejiangbazhongdianfangzaiyingduiyilangweixieshang,dantajujuetoulujutixiangqing。yilangwaijiaobuyijingduiliyitinghuobiaoshihuanying,zhongshenduilibanenzhengfudejiandingzhichi。

telangpudiyirenqi,meiguoduiyilangshishilejixianshiya,zhasileyilangyisilangemingweidui“shengchenglv”zhihuiguansulaimannibingcuchengyiselieyualaboguojiahejieyizujianfanyilanglianmeng。telangpuzhongfanbaigonghou,yilangjiangzaicichengweizhongdiandayaduixiang。

neitaniyahubiaoshi,tongyitinghuodeqitalianggeyuanyinfenbieweirangyiseliejunduixiuzhengyijigulibalesitanyisilandikangyundong(hamasi)。

suiranbaidengzhunbeichenliyidachengtinghuozhijizaicituidongbayitinghuo,danyiseliehehamasishuangfangdoumeiyouzhanshichurenhetinghuoyiyuan。

yiseliezhengzaijiadaduijiashabeibudexiji,yizaidangdijianlihuanchongqu。、zongjiaoyoutaifuguozhuyizhedangbisalie·simotelihezhouyihuyuyiseliezhongxinzhanlingjiasha,bingzai2nianneitongguo“ziyuanyimin”jiangjiashadebalesitanrenkoujianshaoyiban。

benlunliyichongtushiyu2023nian10yuedebayichongtu。weiceyinghamasi,libanenzhenzhudangjihumeitianzaibianjingdiquyuyiseliejiaohuo。jinnianyilai,shuangfangxingdongshengji,libanenzhenzhudangduiyiseliebeibufadongdaguimowurenjihehuojiandanxiji,yiseliezeduilibanenfadongdimianjingongbinglianxudasizhenzhudanggaoceng。

zaichongtuzuikaishi,libanenzhenzhudangjianchibayiselietingzhiduijiashaderuqinzuoweigaizuzhitingzhixijiyiseliedeqiantitiaojian。dansuizheliyijiaoshoushengji、zhongduogaocengsangsheng,libanenzhenzhudangyibuzaibajieshubayichongtuzuoweijieshuliyichongtudeqianti。

jiezhimuqian,liyichongtuzaochenglibanen3823rensangsheng,chaoguo120wanjuminbeipocheli。yiseliefangmianyou70duorensangsheng,6wanduojumincheli。yiselieduilibanendekongxihedimianxingdonghaijilibanenzaochenglejudajingjisunshi。

shijieyinxingbenyuegongbudebaogaoyuji,libanenzaoshoudesunshichaoguo85yimeiyuan。libanennanbujin10wanzhuzhaibeihui,16.6wanrenyinchongtushiye,lvyouye、fuwuye、nongyeheshangyezaoshouzuidachongji。shouliyichongtuyingxiang,libanenjinnianshijiguoneishengchanzongzhijiangdafuxiahua。

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