wenshuzhangtao、lusiyuan（zhongguojiansheyinxingjinrongshichangbu，wenzhangjindaibiaozuozheguandian）

nianchushi，2024niancengbeiyuwei“chaojidaxuannian”，yinweiquanqiujiangyou76geguojia/diqujuxingdaxuan，fugaifanweizhanquanqiurenkou、jingjizongliangdebizhongjunchaoguole40%，linjinnianwei，duoshuxuanqingluoding，telangpuerdushengxuanmeiguozongtong、yingguoyuribenshouxianggengdie、ouzhouyihuidezhengzhiguangpuxiangyouqingxie，congjieguolaikan，zi2016nianyingguogongtoutuoouyutelangpudanbianzhuyishengxuanhou，zhujianquelideququanqiuhuaqushijinyibuguhua，erxinguanyiqingdechongji，gengshibaoluchuhuxinxueruohoudegongyingliancuiruo，cifanzhongzhongduiyu2025niandequanqiujingjieryan，junyushizhebuqueding，shenzhishibuanding，youqishijiangshoudaotelangputuixingde“maga 2.0”yanzhongchongji。

shijishang，ruguobijiaojinsiweimeiguozongtongqijianmeiguojingjidezhuangkuang，telangpuzaijingjizhilifangmianbingfeishigaoshou。2017nianzhi2020nian，zaitelangpushougerenqinei，meiguojingjipingjunzengsu1.5%，shisiweizongtongzhongzuidideshuiping；pingjunshiyelv5.0%，yegaoyubaidengshiqi；meiguozhanquanqiujingjibizhong24%，diyu2001nianzhi2024nian25%depingjunshuiping。

经济治理上的黯淡，加之消极应对新冠疫情，在建制派的集体抵制下，特朗普未能连任，近乎是灰溜溜地离场。在随后四年间，受到司法调查、众叛亲离、家人故去等打击，甚至在本次选举过程多次遭遇暗杀未遂，然而，特朗普最终轻松完胜，反映美国社会内部正在经历剧变。另外，此次大选特朗普帮助共和党实现“红潮”——共和党不仅绝对控制白宫和参议院，还在众议院占多数席位。由此，特朗普在第二个任期内的施政，就很难遇到实质性的政治阻碍，相应特朗普于2016年提出的“MAGA”单边主义将得到更广泛和深入的推进，全球经济必将受到“MAGA 2.0”的严重冲击，与特朗普首个任期不同（任职后的第二年才开启贸易战），冲击一定在2025年1月20日他任职后就会显现，这是“MAGA 2.0”冲击的第一个显著特征，即冲击来临的很快。

“MAGA 2.0”冲击的第二个显著特征，就是更加体系化。ruguoshuozaishougerenqinei，telangpuzaineigerenxuanshangbudebuyikaojianzhipai，jieguozeshineigechengyuanyutelangpubenrenfenqijuda，zheiyeshitelangpushougerenqinei，qineigeshizhongcanquebuquandezhuyin，erguoqusinianjiantelangpujingshoudezhongzhong，gengshilingtazaituanduirenxuanfangmiangengjiazhongshi“zhitongdaohe”he“duoyangxing”，zheicishengxuanhou，budaoyigeyueshijian，tadeneigechengyuantuanduijibenjiumingquexialai，“zhongcheng”、“nianqinghua”、“shangjiejingying”shizheixiebeixuanzhirendexianzhubiaoshi。

neigerenyuanwanbeidejieguojiushi，telangpuxinrenqituixingde“maga 2.0”huigengjiatixihua，duotoubingzhongdetuixinglujingyinggaiyeshiquedingde。

“MAGA 2.0”冲击的第三个显著特征，就是特朗普的“四支柱”政策十分明确和清晰。anzhaotelangpudejingxuanganglingjixinneigechengyuandegongkaiyanlun，tazaiweilaisiniandezhengceneirongyishifenqingxi，ji“maoyi、caizheng、yiminhefangsongguanzhi”sizhizhu。

贸易方面，telangpuyigongkaixuanchengrenzhihoudeshoupixingzhengminglingzhong，jiubaokuoduijianadayumoxigejiazheng25%、duizhongguojiazheng10%guanshui，erqietajiangrenminglaitexizedemuliaozhanggelierweimaoyidaibiao，lingwai，guanshuishouruyebeishiweiduichongqiguoneijianshuidailaidecaizhengyalideyizhongshouduan。

财政方面，weilaicaizhangrenxuanbeitesenzaihuozhengshitiminghou，tichule“3-3-3”zhengce，jidao2028nianjiangyusuanchizilvjiangzhi3%、tongguofangsongguanzhishixian3%dejingjizengzhang、meirizengchan300wantongshiyouhuodengliangnengyuan。

移民方面，telangpujiangrenminghuomanweibianjingshiwufuzerenlaifuzeyiminzhengce，huomanjiushitelangpushougerenqineishishi“jiatingfenli”quzhuyiminzhengcedechangdaozhe，huomanyijinggongkaibiaoshi，jiangzai2025nianquzhu130wanfeifayimin。

fangsongguanzhifangmian，yijingchenglide“zhengfuxiaolvbu”youmasikeyulawasiwamifuze，zhuyaojiushixiaojianbuhelizhengfukaizhi，tigaozhengfuxiaolv，zheigejigousuiranzhishiguwenshenfen，dankeyizhijiexiangweilaidebaigongyusuanbangongshizhurenwotetijianyi，muqian“zhengfuxiaolvbu”yijingkaishiyunzhuan，mubiaojiushidazaoyigegaoxiaodexiaozhengfu，cijuyibeiwaijiechengweitelangpuduijianzhipaide“fuchou”。

congxianhoushunxulaikan，maoyizhengcehecaizhengzhengceyingxiangyinggaizuizaoxianxian，yiminhefangsongguanzhihuishejimeiguoshehuineibudezhuduoliyifang，kenengxiangduimanyixie。yinci，zuiweiquedingde，telangpuzaiguanshuifangmianyidingshirenzhende，juefeishijiaoyicelvedekoutoubiaoda。lingwai，zengjiahuashinengyuangongjiyeshiquedingde，muqianmeiguodehuashinengyuanchannengshi1400wantong/ri，anzhaobeitesende“3-3-3”，yiweizhejiangzengchan20%yishang，xiangyingjiangzhijiehejianjieyingxiangquanqiunengyuangongxu。

基于上述三个观察和判断，对于全球而言，首先就要面临美国加征关税的冲击。telangpuzaijingxuanqijiancengbiaoshijiangduisuoyoumaoyiguojiazheng10%deguanshui，muqianmeiguoyiniandeshangpinhuowujinkoue3.17wanyi，quanqiuyiniandeshangpinhuowuzongjinkouewei24.2wanyi，meiguozhanbiweichaoguo13%，10%deguanshuijiazhengqueshinengdoudailaikeguandeshouru。danzhengruwenchusuoyan，quanqiuganggangjingliledaxuan，xindangxuandegeguozhengkejunhuizaiweihubenguoliyifangmianbiaoxianchuqiangying，yihangshigangganghuodedezhengzhidiwei，suoyitelangpudexinguanshuizhantongyangmianlinjudadebuquedingxing，yincigeguodachengxindemaoyixieyijianghuihenhaoshi，erqienengfoudachengxieyihaicunzaibuquedingxing，duanqikan（mingnian）quanqiumaoyishousunshidagailvshijian。

其次，地缘政治还要变。telangpudanbianzhuyidehuigui，jianggaibianmeiguominzhudang“xiaoyuangaoqiang”dexuanzexinglianmengcelve，meiguoyumengyouzhijiandeguanxijiangzaiduquyufuza，bianhuadejieguohuizhijieyingxiangmuqianhaizaijiaozhuozhongdeewuchongtu、yihachongtudeyanbianjincheng。lingwai，telangpudezaidushengxuanjiweihuzishenliyidedanbianzhuyi，yejiangzhongranouzhoudengdiminzhongduibiangedereqing，cijianjieyehuiduiquanqiudiyuanzhengzhichanshengyingxiang，binghuidailaiquanqiushehuineibudebuanding。

第三，加征关税和地缘动荡，对于全球供需影响更为复杂。suiran，muqianhaibunengduanyanyidinghuichuxianxinyiluntongzhang，danquanqiugongxujinrufeiwentaishidagailvshijian，gengmafandeshijinrongshichangduizheixiebianhuawufayouxiaodingjia，yincidangquanqiujingjijiangxiangbuminglangquyuyunxingshi，jinrongshichangbodongjiajujiubiandequeding。

（文章仅代表作者观点。责编邮箱：yanguihua@jiemian.com。）