文 | 玩世代

dang“guzi”fengfenghuohuoxijuanquanguo，cengjingshengliangpogaodeshoubandiaoxiangdengshouzangwanjuzhujianshiqushichangredu。“zhainanyimianqiang，beijingyitaofang”dedoushichuanshuo，zenmejiubianchengguoqushi？

市场转冷，竞争“向下”

“jinnianxiaoshouhaiburuqunian”，zaiguoneiguimozuidadeshoubanzhanxianchang，yijiabingrenshoubanjiaoyipingtaidefuzerenfachugankai，“suiranrenqibujian，danshilindailvwanquanmeifagenyiqianbi”。

zheihaishizaijinnianzhanhuiguimokongqiandeqiantixia。wfzhanshimowanquanzuiweiguanzhudezhanhui，tongchangwanjiahuizaiwfshangjizhongsaohuo，tebieshigedachangshangdexianliangxiandingshangpin。qunianwfyinribenzhimingchangshanggscdengquexi，zaochengzhanhui“banlakua”zhuangtai；erjinnianwf 2024jihujuqilehaineiwaiquanbutoubuchangpai，guimoshengda。

zaochengxiaoshoufanghuandeyuanyinbingfei“guoqile”，ershizhengtihuanjing，“xiaofeizhedoudianlianghua”。shangshufuzerenyeqiangdiao“bushizhanhuidewenti”。

shichangliuxingfanzhuan，fashengzai2023nian。xiangbiqishoubanmoxingzheizhong“yingzhoubian”，huizhang、yakeli、liumadengguzi“ruanzhoubian”，liutonglianggengda、jiagegengdi，yerangzheimenshengyibuduankuoda。

buguo，zheibingfeidanchunde“pingti”、“xiaofeijiangji”deshengli，ershigengshencengdeyingxiangrenzhiheyishi，xindexiaofeichaoliuzaixingcheng。

shenzhichuantongdingyilidexiaofeishoubanmoxinghexinzhuli，nanxingzhulikequn，tamendetaiduyezaigaibian。

youshoubanaihaozhejichuleyizhongshuofa，“yiqianzhijuedejingdiaoxike、mianrongjiaohao、zugouhualishouzangjicaishixinzhongdebaiyueguang，zanqianyeyaomaigengguigenghao。xianzaimaigeyakeli、bajiyenengtingkaixin”。guzihainengsuishenxiedai，nenggouhehuobanfenxiangjiaoliuyenengdailaiqingxujiazhi。

chaowandengliuxingwenhuayegaibianzheshichangshenmeihexiaofeixingqudian。manghe、mengli、diedieledeng，qingliangxing、minihuachanpinxingtaiyekaishibeiguangweijiena。zhoubianyanshengpinyetongguobutongxingtaijinruwanjiashenghuo。

youpinpaishangqunianzhijinganshoudao，qijingyingderimanleimanghezaiguoquyinianzhongxiaoshouxianzhuzengzhang，“nanxingxiaofeizhemengengnengdudongjiandankuailele”。

fengxiangzhuanbian，duojiachangshangdiaozhuanchuantou：jiagedaixiangxiachen；nianlingdaixiangxiachen；xiangliuxingipxiliejizhong。

toubushipinpingtaishouquanfuzerenzhichu，2019niandeshihoudiaoxiangshijiazai7000-8000yuan，xianzaikehudekaifafangxianggengpianxiangxingjiabigao、weixingchangjing，jiage2000-3000yuan。

cengjingyimeimanweiqiangdechangshangyekaishizuogengyouliuxingreduderimanleiip，zhuanzhugaoduanshouzangdiaoxiangdechangshangyekaishisheliebingrendengxiaotichanpin，congkaweiwanyuanji，jiangdaoliangsanqianyuanjiagedai。

yixieqingnianxiangshouzangdepinpaizaijijikaituodilingxianchanpin，quzhuananhaishichang。yuanchuangjijiapinpaimodonghetuichu“jijiamanghe”，hailianhemangguotvtuichu《modonghedazuozhan》donghua，peiyangshaoerduiyuanchuangjijiaipdexingqu。nanhaishichangbenshenyeshijijiawanju、zhandouleiyingxiongleifenggedezhulizhiyi。

leisiluxian，moshowtoyscengchangshiyusenbaojimuhezuotuichupinchawanfadeyuanchuangjijia，52toysdemengshouxiajinyibuladidaobaiyuanxian。

zhenggeshouzangwanjudeshichangxiangxiajingzheng，xuanshouyuelaiyueduo，kuaquanjingzhengzhebuduan。jimupinpaibulukeyesharushoubanmowanquan。jinniantuichudeduoxiangxinpin，hexinmaidianshiipjiaose，dapolelegaoshipindajimuwanfagainian，benzhishiyizhongqingdupindaqianheshouban。dingweiyebushiqimengertongwanju，ershishoubanaihaozhe、dongmanfensi。

youshangjiazhichu，zhenzhengdegaoduanshouzangjikequnfeichangyouxian，jiagetiduyoudidaogao，kequntiliangchengzhishujisuojian。zhiguhuayushouzang&gaoduan，lutaizhaile。

结构性机会：新人群、新需求

“guzi”kanqilaiqiangduanleshichangreduhexiaofeili，buguoyecujinlexiaofeishichangjiaoyu，peiyangleyanshengpinzhoubiandexinaihaoqunti。shichangpanduan：guzizhishixiaofei“rukou”，wanjiahuizhujianpeiyangqishouzangxingqu，jinerzaishouban、bingren、kedongrenouleidengpinleishangchixutouru。

“haodeshoubanshejinengdailaibuyiyangdeqingganjiazhi，zheishiwuketidaide”。

shoubanchangshanggscfangmianjichuyizhongguandian：“guzizheileipingmianleichanpin，congshengchandaosheji，meiyoujishunandu，zhiyoushouquanmenjian”。guzileizaijinnianshuqiyijingshachengshenhongshichang，tongzhihuawentituxian。

ipyanshengpinliyouduozhongchanpinfenzhi，jiageyuegao，duipinzhiyaoqiuyuegao，beihoudaibiaodeyuanxingshishejinengli、shangsejingzhundu，gongchanggongyibakongyanshou，gegehuanjiedeyaoqiudouhengao。shoubanbenshenshiyoujishumenjiande。

gscshangwuzongjinglizaibailianchuangquchangxindiankaiyededangtian，zaidianliguanchaleyizhengtian。tafaxiannvxing、haiziyekaishiguangshouban、kanshangpin，erbuzhishiguoqukebanyinxiang“zhainanmen”。

jinnianshuang11，erciyuanyouxi、yiyouleiipdezhoubianxiaoshouchixushengwen，chengweichaoliuwanjuzhiwaidezhuyaozengzhangshitou。《lianyushenkong》《yuanshen》dengduokuanqingzhoubianxiaoliangqingsong10wan+，shenzhibaiwanyishang。jintaotiandanyipingtai，acgyanshengpinguimojiudadaobaiyiguimo。

danyiyiyoulaikan，wanjiajizhongzai20zhi29sui，zheiyiquntitongchangshidaxueshenghenianqingzhiyenvxing，juyoujiaoqiangdexiaofeinengli。zhengtikaneryoulei，nvxingwanjiayeshibanbiantian，zhanbiyue46%。eryoudezhuliwanjiajizhongzai20-24suiwanjia，zhanbidadao57.9%，bingqie35suiyishangdewanjiazhujianzengjia。

guoman《wanmeishijie》donghuarebodaidongqibingrendengshouzangwanjuremai，“shihao”jiaose1/12leidijiazhoukedongrenou，kaishou3fenzhongxiaoliangpo500tao，6xiaoshishouchu2000tao。“huolinger”1/4bilishuzhidiaoxiang，fashou1fenzhongmaichu2000ti。zheiyifaxingliangzaibanquandiaoxianglibusuanxiao，bingqieguomanleishouzangwanjubuduanshuaxinremai。qihexingoumaililaizi18-29suidenianqingren，zhanbi6cheng，nanxingweizhuli。

cengjing“chenmoderenqun”bianchengle“shichangxuanxiaodezhuti”。yerangshichangkandao，guoqushangweibeizhaogudaodekequn，tamentongyangjuyouxiaofeili。

buguoxiangyong“laoyitao”maiji“xinkequn”kenengxingbutong。ribenshoubandachangdecelveshi：liangshendazaochanpin，neirongshuchuheshichangchuanbocelvedengyixiliediaozheng。

gscdequantouchanpin“zhanturen”benshenyijingshishoubanzhongdeqinminji。danzaizheizhiwai，gschaizhenduixinxingxiaofeizhegailiangshejifengge，pipeitamenganxingqudeipcelve，ronghezhuangshixingheqinggongnengxing。shangwuzongjinglinahuggyxiliejuli，“chuantongdingyideshoubanzhinengbaifangxinshang，xianzaikeyicixidaobingxiangshang。duiyonghulaishuo，xiangdangyuyongyouleyigezhuangshigandekedongshouban。shoujiaxiangduibianyi，duixinyonghujiagegengyouhao，gengyuanyichangshi”。

gscdehelloxilie，yigaichuantongshoubanduijingxidudehaiyuanzhuiqiu，shejimenghua、tilianfuhaohua、congdatidaoqban，yinghelenvxingxiaofeizhe。qilingyixiliezhongzhudadexiaobilikedongrenouyijingshifentiejinguoneidechaowanfengge。

wandaidedongzuodiaozhengyehenyouzhixiangxing：shoucicanjiachaoliuwanjuzhan，dailaiqbangaoda。zaiwfwandaizhantai，chule“zhuxuanlv”gaodaxiliewai，haiyoubushaofuhedazhonghuapianhaodeqingiphedazhongxingipxinpin。chuanboshangyexiangdaludeshejiaomeitiliuxingwenhuakaolong，jianlishemeiguanhaozhendi，mengxibiaoqingbaodengneirongshuchu。

zhuoshizixunbaogaoxianshi，2021nianzhongguofanerciyuanyonghuguimoyidadaoyue4.6yiren，yuji2024nianjiangtupo5yi，zhongguoerciyuanneirongchanyeshichangguimoyezai2021niandadao632.1yiyuan，yuji2025nianjiangtupoqianyiguimo，jinrubaofaqi。

dangshichangzugoupangda，xiaofeirenkouzugouduo，chayihuaxuqiuyegengduoyuan。yirancunzaijiegouxingzengzhangjihui。

陷入IP竞赛，难破局

huishoufazhanlicheng，rujinyanshengxiaofeire，libukaiguoneierciyuanchanyeguimochixukuoda，youxichanyebaofazengzhangdehouzhixiaoying。2014dao2018nian，guoneierciyuanzhanshangtourongzifengkou。dingfengzhishiyinianfasheng100qirongzishijian。

“zhainanyimianqiang，beijingyitaofang”buzhishiduanzi，yeshoudaozibenguanzhu。

2018nian，ribenhaiyangtangdaizhe“mowanshengshi”wfzhanshoucilaidaozhongguo，shanghaishouzhanzhenfenrenxin，chuangxia10wanrencikeliu。shouban、bingren、jijia、diaoxiang、moxingdenggeleixingpin，rangrenyanjiedakai。

bishicengyouwanjuchangshangtichulundiao，“shouzangwanjuzhongjiangtidaichaoliuwanju”。liyouhenjiandan：chaoliuzhuanshunjishi，youipbeishudeshouzangwanjucai“yinghe”。

danyijintianlaikan，chaowanfeidanmeiyoudiedao，fanerkaiqihaineiwaishuangshamoshi。jinnian11yuepaopaomatezhonghuiqianyishizhi。jifashichangdeyigehexinchanpinquantoushi「tangjiaomaorong」。chuantongmaorongwanjushoudaoshengchanjuxian，hennanzuodaozaoxingjingdubaochiruyi。ertangjiaoliankefulezheiyibug，shiwanjujiaosemianbugengjingzhihaiyuan，nenggoudadaoyonghushenmeibiaozhun，youzaichanpinchengxianshangyousuotupo（dangranyeyouyixilieyingxiaoheshichangyunzuoshoufadezhuanbian）。

chanpintupo，yiranshishichangyinlingli。

xiangfan，shoubanmowanshichangxianrutongzhihua，jingzhengbileixiaojie，zhanhuiyouweigengxianzhu。youmoxingchangshangzaicanjialehaineiwaiduochanghuodongshangkandao“chaju”，guoneichanpinfenggexiangduitaidanyi。yonghucefankuiyeyinzhengyuci，“meiniankandaodedongxichabuduo”，“daipjiuneixie”。

shenzhi，chuantonggainianlibileigaozhudediaoxianglei，jizhibizhen、jizhihaiyuan，yebushidujianengli。jinchengliliangsanniandexinchangpaiyenengzuodaochupinjizhi。

tongyiremenjiaose、tongyibili、xiangjinzaoxing，butongchangpaizhijianchayijinshengxiajiage。

shenmehuojiuzuoshenme，zhishishichangxianru“ipjingsai”。meimandianyingpiaofangshiweicuoshangfensishichang，yushizhuanzhankaifarimanremenip，zhishizaibutongipshangzuoxiangtongchanpinnenglidejiandanpingyi。

guochan3ayouxi《heishenhua：wukong》chuquanhou，wukongdiaoxiangdahuo，shoubanlihemaiduanhuo。youzhimingchangshangzhuizhe“houwang”gainian，tuichuhouwangzaoxingshoubanchanpin，danzhongchouejin1%。

dangshouzangwanjushichangbianchengreduipdezhuizhusai，mituhunzhanzhongshiqudujiajingzhengli，kenengfanerxianruletaotaisai。