记者 辛圆

anzhaoguanli，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyijiangzaijinqizhaokai，huiyijiangfenxidangqianjingjixingshi，bingdui2025nianhongguanzhengcezouxiangdingdiao。fenxishipubianrenwei，mingnianhongguanzhengcejidiaohuogengjiji，tongshi，huiyihuozaifangdichan、huajiedifangzhengfuzhaiwuyijicuxiaofeidengfangmiantichujinyibuanpai。

看点一：政策基调或更积极 

9yuediyilanzizengliangchutaiyilai，woguozhengcededicengluojiyijingzhuanbian，wenzengzhangzhonghuicwei。fenxishiyuji，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyijiangduimingniandehongguanzhengcezuochugengjiajijidedingdiao，shijingjizengzhangshuipingjixubaochizai5%zuoyou。

zhongguoguojijingjijiaoliuzhongxinfulishizhangwangyimingjinrizaizhongguohongguanjingjiluntan（cmf）shangjianyi，2025nianyingyidaliduhongguanzhengcekuodaguoneixuqiu。mianduineixubuzuhejingjimianlindeyali，xuyaocaiqugengdalidudehongguanzhengce，tongguogengjiajijidecaizhengzhengcehegengjuzhichixingdehuobizhengce，laikuoneixu、wenzengzhang。

dongfangjinchengguojixinyongpingguyouxiangongsishouxihongguanfenxishiwangqingduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi，mingnianhongguanzhengcejiangbaochiwenzengzhangquxiang，gengjiazhuzhongxiangjijueze。qizhong，caizhengzhengcedejidiaojiangshi“gengjiajili”，huobizhengcezejiangyanxu“zhichixing”lichang。

jingjixuerenzhikugaojifenxishixutianchenbiaoshi，waibuhuanjingdetiaozhanjiangduimingnianjingjichanshengjiaodayingxiang，zaicibeijingxia，leisi“jiadahongguanzhengcediaojielidu”“zhelikuodaguoneixuqiu”debiaoshuzhideqidai。lingwai，wenzhuminying、waizijingjikenengyeshiyidazhongdian，huiyihuozaigaishanqiyejingyinghuanjing、jifaqiyehuolidengfangmianyousuobushu。

看点二：财政政策或更给力

jinguanzhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyibuhuigongbumingniandechizilv，danfenxirenshiyuji，zaihongguanzhengcejijidezongjidiaoxia，caizhengzhengcekenenghuichengshiershang、gengjiajili。

wangyimingbiaoshi，mingnianruguoyaoshixian5%zuoyoudejingjizengsu，jiuxuyaoshidutigaochizilv，kaolvdao2023nianshijichizilvtigaodao3.8%，2025nianchizilvnengfoubi3.8%lvegaoyixie，yimingquedezhengcelaitizhenxinxin、gaishanyuqi。

yuekaizhengquanshouxijingjixuejialuozhihengjianyi2025nianchizilvtigaodao3.5%yishangnaizhi4.0%，shifangwenzengzhangdeqiangliexinhao，dadaokuodazongxuqiu、 wendingyuqi、huanjiedifangcaizhengyalisanzhonggongxiao。

huajinzhengquanshouxihongguanfenxishiqintaigengshibiaoshi，zhiyouchizilvdafutishengzhi4%yishang，caiyouwangxiangshichangchuandichuyigengdaliducujinhecijinaiyongxiaofeipinneixushengjikuorongdezhengceyitu，congeryouxiaodilianxutishengxianjinzhizaoyeqiyeshengchanxinxinhehangshineixunhuanxuqiucedekechixuxing。

ciwai，dongwuzhengquanyuji，mingniandecaizhengzhengcejiangcong2024niandeshunzhouqiquanmianzhuanxiangnizhouqikuozhang，yujizengliangzijindadaogdpzongliangde2%-2.5%。chuleliangyiwai，jijicaizhengdeyongtutongyangzhongyao，duiyuzhengfubumen，“liangxin”（shebeigengxinhexiaofeipinyijiuhuanxin）butiexuyaokuoweijiali，tongshi，gonggongzhichuyexuyaozhubucongtouzizhuanxiangxiaolvgenggaodexiaofei。duiyujuminbumen，dapodiwujia、gaofuzhaidelianggefufankuixunhuan、tizhensirenxuqiu，xuyaohongguanzhengcegengduozheliyufuwuxiaofeihefangdichan。

看点三：房地产落实存量政策是重点

9yuediyilai，tuidongfangdichanzhidiehuiwendecuoshijielianchutai，shichangzhujianchengxianhuiwenjixiang。fenxishibiaoshi，luoshiyiyoudecunliangzhengcejiangshizhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyiguanzhudezhongdian。

58anjukeyanjiuyuanyuanzhangzhangboduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi，youyufangdichanhejingjimiandeguanlianduda，bingqiejingjimiandegaishanlibukaifangdichanshichangfusu，yujizhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyiduifangdichandeguanzhuduhuiyousuotisheng。duanqilaikan，yujirengranshiweiraofangqirongzi、baojiaolou、shouchudengfangmianzhankaigongzuo，yijianjueshouzhubufashengxitongxingfengxiandedixian。

guangdongshengzhufangzhengceyanjiuzhongxinshouxiyanjiuyuanliyujiarenwei，zaiqianqizhengcezhutuixia，fangdichanzhidiehuiwendejixiangyijingxianxian，danhaixuyaohangshi，tebieshifangdichangexiangzhibiaoleijiguimorengzaixiadiedeqingkuangxia。yinci，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyikenenghuitichujixucujinhuogonggufangdichanzhidiehuiwendejichu。

zaiyingduizhengceshang，liyujiayuji，huiyihuoqiangdiaoyouxiaoluoshicunliangzhengce。“zaizengliangzhengcekongjianshouzhaideqingkuangxia，luoshicunliangzhengcejiangshizhongdian，tebieshi100wantaochengzhongcungaizaohuobihuaanzhiluodijianxiao，faxingzhuanxiangzhai、toufangzhuanxiangjiekuanzhichicunliangtudihefangyuanshouhuishougou。”tashuo。

wangqingyerenwei，huiyijiangzhongshen“cujinfangdichanshichangzhidiehuiwen”。kaolvdao“sisier”——sigequxiao、sigejiangdihelianggezengjia——zhengcezuheganggangchutai，zhengzaijijituijinguochengzhong，yujibencihuiyibuhuizaiyouxindejutizhengceanpai，ershihuiqiangdiaozhuajinluoshiyichutaidezhengcecuoshi，tongshihaihuiyaoqiuchixuwanshantudi、caishui、jinrongdengzhengce，tuidonggoujianfangdichanfazhanxinmoshi。

“sigequxiao”zhideshi，difangzhengfuyaoyinchengshice，diaozhenghuoquxiaosidaleixianzhixingcuoshi，baokuoxiangou、xianshou、xianjia、putongzhuzhaihefeiputongzhuzhaibiaozhun。“sigejiangdi”zhi，jiangdizhufanggongjijindaikuanlilv，jiangdishoufubili，jiangdicunliangdaikuanlilv，jiangdi“maijiumaixin”huangouzhufangshuifeifudan。“lianggezengjia”，yishizhitongguohuobihuaanzhidengfangshi，xinzengshishi100wantaochengzhongcunheweijiufanggaizao；ershizhiniandiqianjiang“baimingdan”xiangmudexindaiguimozengjiadao4wanyiyuan。

看点四：消费品“以旧换新”有望扩围

shichangpubianrenwei，meiguodangxuanzongtongtangnade·telangpushangtaihou，duihuajiazhengguanshuidekenengxingmingxianjiada，waixuduiwoguojingjizengzhangdezhichiliduzaimingnianhuoyousuozouruo。zaicibeijingxia，tizhenguoneixuqiu，youqishixiaofeixuqiujiangzaiwenzengzhangzhongbanyangengweizhongyaodejiaose。

wangqingbiaoshi，zheyanyu2025nianwaibumaoyihuanjingbianshujiada，waixuduijingjizengzhangdeladongliquruo，zhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyihenkenenghuiqiangdiaomingnianyaogenghaofahuixiaofeiduijingjizengzhangdejichuxingladongzuoyong。congzhengcemianlaikan，mingniancaizhengzhengcejiangjinyibujiadazhichinaiyongxiaofeipinyijiuhuanxinlidu，zaiwendinghekuodachuantongxiaofeidetongshi，zhongdiantizhenxinnengyuanqiche、dianzichanpindengdazongxiaofei，bacuxiaofeihehuiminshengjieheqilai。ciwai，zhengcemianhaihuiyaoqiuchixupeiyuzhuangdashuzixiaofei、lvsexiaofeidengxinxingxiaofei，zhongdianzhichiwenyulvyoudengfuwuxiaofeizengzhangdian。

“shourushixiaofeizhiyuan，yujihuiyihuitichushenhuashourufenpeitizhigaigedeyaoqiu，duoqudaozengjiachengxiangjuminshouru，tebieshiyaokuodazhongdengshouruquntiguimo，tishengjuminxiaofeinengli。”wangqingshuo。

zhongxinzhengquanzaiyanbaozhongbiaoshi，chaozhangqitebieguozhaizhichixiaofeiliduyouwangzaijinnian1000yi-1500yiyuandeshuipingshangyousuotisheng，huodadao2000yi-3000yiyuan，bingzaipinleishangkenengjiangxiaofeidianzichanpinnaruzhengcezhichifanwei。ciwai，zhenduifuwuxiaofeidezhengceyezhideqidai。

xutianchenyebiaoshi，congbutiefanweikan，yijiuhuanxinzhengceyouwangkuozhanzhigengduopinleihechangjing，rufuzhuangwentidengfeinaiyongshangpin，yijicanyinlvyoudengxianxiafuwu。tahaizhichu，jinnianxiabannianjiadianqiche“yijiuhuanxin”butiecuxiaofeixiaoguomingxian，mingnianhuoyouleisizhengcechutai。congxingshikan，goumaibutiehexiaofeiquandoushiyoukenengcaiqudexingshi。

看点五：防范隐性债务卷土重来

11yue8ri，quanguorendachangweihuipizhun《guowuyuanguanyutiqingshenyizengjiadifangzhengfuzhaiwuxianezhihuancunliangyinxingzhaiwudeyian》。yiantichu，fensannianzengjia6wanyiyuandifangzhengfuzhaiwuxianezhihuancunliangyinxingzhaiwu；cong2024niankaishi，lianxu5nianmeiniancongxinzengdifangzhengfuzhuanxiangzhaiquanzhonganpai8000yiyuan，leijizhihuanyinxingzhaiwu4wanyiyuan。

luozhihengduijiemianxinwenbiaoshi，cici“10wanyi+”huazhaifanganyouxiaodihuanjieledifangzhengfudeliudongxingfengxian，shixianleyinxingzhaiwuxianxinghua、lazhangzhaiwuzhouqi、yajiangchengben，gengzhongyaodeshirangdifangzhengfutengchugengduocailihejinglifazhanjingjihegaishanminsheng。danshi，huazhaiyuanweijieshu，xiajieduanyaozhezhongconggoujianzhaiwuguanlidezhangxiaojizhi、shenhuacaishuitizhigaigerushou，conggenbenshangfangfanhuajiedifangzhaiwufengxian。

“zheixuyaotuidongcaishuitizhigaigeshangshoushiquanhezhichuzeren、jianlizhaiwuhezibenyusuan，goujianzhangxiaojizhiconggenbenshangfangfanyinxingzhaiwujuantuzhonglai，keyiguanzhuzhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyishifouzaizheifangmianyouxiangguantiji。”luozhihengshuo。

wangqingyebiaoshi，yujihuiyichuleyaoqiuyouxiaoluoshihuazhaifangan、tongchouhaodifangzhaiwufengxianhuajiehewendingfazhanwai，haihuiyaoqiujianjueezhixinzengyinxingzhaiwu，wanshandifangzhengfuzhaiwuguanli，jiakuaijianlitonggaozhiliangfazhanxiangshiyingdezhongguotesezhaiwutixi。