记者 | 安晶

2024nianshifaguozhengtandongdangdeyinian。

dangdishijian12yue2ri，faguozonglimixieer·baniyedongyongxianfafuyudequanliraokaiguominyihui（xiayiyuan），qiangxingtongguo2025niancaizhengyusuanfaanzhongdeshehuibaozhangyusuanan。

jiuzaibaniyeqiangxingguoguanhou，guominyihuizuidazhengdanglianmengzuoyi“xinrenminzhenxian”likexuanbujiangduibaniyefaqibuxinrentoupiao。yihuidisandazhengdang、chengwei“zaowangzhe”dejiyouyiguominlianmengyexuanbujiangtiqibuxinrendongyi。

baniyelingdaozheshaoshupaizhengfu。tasuoshudeyouyigonghedangjiashangfaguozongtongniuaier·makelongsuoshudezhongjianpailianmengmeiyouzhanjuyihuiduoshuxiwei，yidanxinrenminzhenxianheguominlianmenglianshoutongguobuxinrentoupiao，baniyexiataijiangchengdingju。

zimakelong2017nianchurenzongtongyilai，faguozhengfujingliguoduocibuxinrentoupiao。youyumakelongsuoshuzhongjianpailianmengshiyihuidiyidazhengdanglianmeng，buxinrentoupiaojunweitongguo。zhuanzhechuxianzaijinnian6yue。

weizuzhijiyouyizhengdangjueqi、xunqiukuodazhongjianpailianmengdexiwei，makelongjinxingleyicizhengzhi“haodu”，xuanbuyu6yuetiqianjuxingguominyihuixuanju。jinnianyuanbenyinggaishifaguodezhengzhiwendingqi，zongtongdaxuanheguominyihuixuanjudouzai2022nianjuxing，xiayiciyihuixuanjushi2027nian。

6yuedeguominyihuixuanjuzhihou，zhongjianpailianmeng“zaiyiqi”meiyouzengjiaxiweifanerjiangjiweiyihuidierdazhengdanglianmeng。zuoyizhengdanglianmenghejiyouyiguominlianmengdeyingxianglishangzhang，faguozhengjuxingchengle“sanzudingli”。

youyusanfangboyi，faguozonglirenxuanchichiweichulu，faguoyikanshouzhengfuzhuangtaiyinglaibaliaoyunhui。zhidao9yue，makelongcairenminglaopaiyouyizhengke、oumengqianshouxitanpandaibiaobaniyechurenfaguozongli。

ruguoguominyihuiyubenzhoutongguobuxinrentoupiao，baniyelingdaodezhengfujiangchengweifaguozi1962nianyilaishougeyinbuxinrentoupiaoerxiataidezhengfu。

预算案引发的斗争

baniyeyu10yuetijiaole2025nianyusuancaoan，tichuxuejian400yiouyuandegonggongzhichubingtongguojiashuizengjiajin200yiouyuandecaizhengshouru。

zheiyicaoanzaodaozuoyilianmenghejiyouyizhengdangdeyizhifandui。fulisuoshui、shuifeishangzhangyeyinfafaguoxuanminbuman。faguoshangzhougongbudediaochaxianshi，67%deshoufangzhefanduibaniyedeyusuancaoan，bigaijigouliangzhouqiandediaochashangzhang2gebaifendian。

danfaguoyijingyinweichiziguogaobeioumengdianming。genjuoumengguiding，chengyuanguonianducaizhengchizibudechaoguoqiguoneishengchanzongzhi（gdp）de3%。faguoquniancaizhengchizizhangdpbizhongwei5.5%，jinnianyujijiangdadao6.1%。

oumengyijingduibaokuofaguozaineide7gechengyuanguoqidongguoduchizichengxu，geguoxuyaozaizhidingshijianneicaiquxingdongxuejianchizi，fouzehuomianlinfakuan。baniyemubiaozai2025nianjiangcaizhengchizijiangzhigdpde5%，dao2029nianjiangzhi3%。oumengduibaniyedejihuabiaoshilehuanying。

youyumakelongmeiyourangzaiguominyihuixuanjuzhongshengchudezuoyilianmenghouzujianzhengfu，fennudezuoyilianmengduifaguoxinzhengfuchidizhitaidu。weilerangyusuanantongguoyihui，baniyezhinengxunqiujiyouyiguominlianmengdezhichi。

jubaodao，zhidaozhouyi，baniyehaizaiduiguominlianmengtuoxie，juedingfangqisuojianyibaoyaopinbaoxiaofanwei。shangzhou，yingguominlianmengyaoqiu，baniyefangqiletigaodianlishuifeidejihua。

danguominlianmenglingdaorenmalina·lepangjixufajinggao，yaoqiubaniyetigaotuixiujin、zantingtigaotianranqishui、jianshaofaguoduioumengdechuzi，fouzejiangduifaguozhengfufaqibuxinrentoupiao。

tanpanshibaihou，baniyeyuzhouyidongyongle。gaitiaokuanyunxuzhengfuzaiyihuiweipizhundeqingkuangxiatongguofaan，danxianfayeyaoqiuzhengfufuchudaijia。yidanzhengfuqiyonggaitiaokuan，guominyihuichengyuankezai24xiaoshineiduizhengfutiqibuxinrendongyi，yihuijiangzai48xiaoshineiduibuxinrendongyijinxingbianluntoupiao。

最早周三就垮台？

zuoyizhengdanglianmengxinrenminzhenxianzhongzhuyaozhengdang“buqufalanxi”dechengyuan、guominyihuicaizhengshiwuweiyuanhuizhuxiailike·kekeleierbiaoshi，duifaguozhengfudebuxinrendongyitoupiaozuizaojiangzai12yue4rijuxing。

zaifaguoguominyihuizhong，tongguoduizhengfudebuxinrentoupiaobuxuyaosanfenzhieryiyuanzancheng，jinyibanyishangyiyuanzhichijiuketongguo。

faguoguominyihuigongyou577xi，yibanyishangwei289xi。zuoyizhengdanglianmengxinrenminzhenxianzhan193xi，jiyouyiguominlianmengjiqimengyougongzhan142xi，liangdazhenyingdezongxiweiyijingchaoguo289xi。ruguozheiliangdazhenyingdeyiyuanzaibuxinrentoupiaozhongjititouchuzanchengpiao，baniyehefaguozhengfuzhiyouxiataiyitiaolu。

liangdazhenyingzhongdezhengdangyiyuzhouyifenbietijiaolebuxinrendongyi，guominlianmenghaifanghuachengjiangzhichirenhenengtuifanzhengfudetoupiao。buhuiyingguominlianmengxuanmindesuqiu，“faguorenshougoule。”

guominlianmengzhuxi，chufei“zuihouyikechuxianqiji”，fouzeguominlianmengjiangtongguoduibaniyezhengfudebuxinrentoupiao。baerdailazhichu，“qiji”detiaojianshibaniyeduishehuibaozhangyusuananjinxingzhongdadiaozheng，dantaduici“jihububaoxiwang”。

“buqufalanxi”yihuidangtuanzhuximadierde·panuozaiciqianzemakelongfourenminzhutoupiaojieguo、buzhipaizuoyilianmenghouxuanrenchurenzongli。tapengji，rangfaguoxianruzhengzhihunluandezuikuihuoshoushimakelonghebaniyezhengfu。

baniyezejinggaoruguowufatongguoxinyusuanan、zhengfuxiatai，faguojiangmianlindongdang。taduncuguominyihuiyiyuanfanduibuxinrentoupiao：“ruguobagerenliyilingjiayuguojiadeweilaizhishang，faguorenbuhuiyuanliangwomen。”

之后将如何？

faguozaijinnian6yuecaitiqianjuxingleguominyihuixuanju。anzhaofalvguiding，xiayiciyihuixuanjubixudengdaomingnian6yue。zheiyeyiweizhejibianbaniyezhengfuzaibuxinrentoupiaozhongxiatai，makelongyewufaxuanbujiesanguominyihui、zhongxinxuanju。

6yueguominyihuixuanjuhoudejumiankenengzhongxian：makelongyaoqiubaniyezhengfuzuoweikanshouzhengfujixuchulirichangshiwu，zheiqijianmakelongjiangwusexindezonglirenxuan。faguoxianfameiyouweizongtongrenmingzonglishedingshijianxianzhi。

danzhichu，zai“sanzudingli”dejushixia，yuanyixiangjiyouyizhenyingtuoxiedebaniyeyijingbeishiweizuiyounengliyugefanggoutongderenxuan。tabeilaxiamahou，makelongyaotiaochuxinzonglirenxuanfeichangkunnan。lingyigexuanxiangshizujianbutuixingzhengzhifangandejishuguanliaozhengfu，rangfaguoweichiyunzuodaomingnianyihuixuanju。

zuihouyigexuanxiang、yeshizuibukenengdexuanxiangshimakelongzhudongxiatai，faguotiqianjuxingzongtongdaxuan。makelongjujuerangzuoyilianmenghouxuanrenchurenzonglihou，zuoyilianmengbuduanyaoqiumakelongxiatai，zaodaomakelongjianjuefandui，lepangcicijujueyubaniyehezuoyebeishiweixiangmakelong“bigong”。makelongyijinglianrenguoyicizongtong，faguoxianfaguidingzongtonglianrenbunengchaoguoyijie，2027niandaxuanzhongtajiangbunengzaicanxuan。muqianmakelongbuzaifaguo，zhengzaishatealabojinxing3tianfangwen。

yumakelongzaizongtongdaxuanzhongliangciduijuedelepangyeyoukenengwuyuan2027niandaxuan。shangzhousan，wanchengleduilepangji25mingguominlianmengchengyuanshexiannuoyongoumengzijindetingshen，jiangyumingnian3yue31rixuanbupanjuejieguo。

lepangdengrenbeikongcong2004niandao2016nianbaouzhouyihuidezijinyongyuzhifufaguoguominzhenxian（guominlianmengqianshen）degongzuorenyuan，baokuolepangdebaobiao。jianfangxunqiupanchulepang2nianjianjin、5nianbudedanrengongzhi、fakuan30wanouyuan，guominlianmengxujiaonafakuan200wanouyuan。ruguobeipanzuimingchengli，lepangjiangwufacanjia2027niandezongtongdaxuan。lepangfourenlesuoyouzhikongbingjiangtiqishangsu，qilvshizhizefaguojianfangshitu“daguimoshashang”faguominzhu。

ruguobaniyezhengfuxiatai，faguode2025nianyusuanjihuayejiangsuizhipaotang。yumeiguobutong，faguozhengfubuhuiyinweimeiyoutuichuxinyusuanfaanertingbai。kanshouzhengfunengtichuteshufaan，ba2024niandeyusuanzanshiyanzhangyiquebaozhengfujigouyouzugoudezijinjixuyunzuo。teshufaanyexuyaojingguoguominyihuitoupiao，jiangzhichiteshufaan。

suiranfaguozhengfubuhuitingbai，danfaguodechizixuejianjihuajiangdashangyigejudadewenhao。faguoyusuanhegonggongzhangmubuzhangluolang·sheng-madingjinggao，ruguobucaiqucuoshi，2025nianfaguocaizhengchizijiangshengzhigdpde7%。

shangzhouwuxuanbuweichiduifaguozhuquanxinyongde“aa-”pingji，pingjizhanwangwei“wending”。biaopurenwei，suirancunzaizhengzhibuquedingxing、huituichizhixing，danfaguoyiranjiangzunshououmengguize，“zaizhongqizhubujiaqianggonggongcaizhengguanli”。