记者 | 安晶

编辑｜刘海川

韩国总统尹锡悦在2024年12月4日宣布解除实施6个多小时的紧急戒严linghou，hanguozongtongfushouximishu、shizhangdengmuliaojititichucizhi。

zhousanzaoxieshihou，hanguozhizhengdangguominliliangdangshouhandongxunzaidangneidahuishangyaoqiuyinxiyuetuichugaidang，zongtongfufuzerenheguofangbuzhangguanquanticizhi。handongxunjinggao，ruguobucaiqucuoshi，guominliliangdangjiang“wufaduguodangqianweiji”。

juhanlianshebaodao，hanguoguohuizuidadang、zaiyedanggongtongminzhudangyeyuzhousanzaoshangfabujueyiwen，duncuyinxiyuelikexiatai。

共同民主党谴责尹锡悦宣布紧急戒严zhijushizhongdaweifanxianfadexingwei，manzudanhetiaojian。gaidangjinggao，ruguoyinxiyuejujuelikexiatai，gongtongminzhudangjiangshunyingminyilijiqidongdanheliucheng。

共同民主党一直想对尹锡悦发起弹劾。韩国国会为一院制，共300个席位。要想弹劾总统，弹劾案需要得到三分之二议员支持，仅靠共同民主党等在野党的席位无法满足条件。此次戒严lingshijianhou，zhizhengdangguominliliangdangyiyuanshifouhuidaogeduitongguodanheanzhiguanzhongyao。

chuletongguoguohuitoupiaozhiwai，danheanhaibixujingguohanguoxianfafayuanshenli，yizuizhongpanduandanheanshifouchengli。xianfafayuanshenlijieguoshidanheanshengxiaodeguanjian。

戒严lingshijianshifouhuijiasuyinxiyuedexiatai？hanguoshifouhuitiqianjuxingzongtongdaxuan？shanghaiduiwaijingmaodaxuechaoxianbandaoyanjiuzhongxinzhuren、shanghaishichaoxianbandaoyanjiuhuifuhuizhangzhandebinweijiemianxinwenjinxingjiedu。

主动下台还是被弹劾？

yaoqiuyinxiyuetuidangdeguominliliangdangdaibiaohandongxuncengshiyinxiyuedexinfu，yuyinxiyuetongweijianchaguanchushen，zaiyinxiyuejiurenzongtonghouchurenfawubuzhang。

danyinxiyuedeqizi、hanguodiyifurenjinjianxishoudiaobaoshijianpuguanghou，handongxungaibianlichang、duipipingjinjianxideshengyinchikuanrongtaidu，yinfayinxiyuebuman。handongxundangshidanrenguominliliangdangjinjiduiceweiyuanhuiweiyuanzhang（linshidangshou），yinxiyuesuihouyaoqiuhandongxuncizhi，zaohandongxundangchangjujue。liangrendemaodunyesuizhigongkaihua。

zhandebinzhichu，handongxunzhidaibiaoguominliliangdangneishaoshupaideshengyin，“handongxunpai”yiyuanzaiguohuizhongjinzhan18gexiwei，yincitayaoqiuyinxiyuetuidangbingbuyiweizheyinxiyuehuizhaozuo。

周二晚，当韩国国会就“要求解除紧急戒严ling”jinxingtoupiaoshi，canyuletoupiaobingjititouchuzanchengpiao。zhei190mingyiyuanzhongyou172renlaizizaiyedang，lingwai18renjunlaiziguominliliangdangneide“handongxunpai”。

詹德斌表示，即便有了戒严lingshijian，zhichiyinxiyuedeguominliliangdangyiyuanyiranmeiyoucanyutoupiao。yinciyinxiyueshifouhuituidang“qujueyuguominliliangdangneinengfoudachenggongshi”。

zuidazaiyedanggongtongminzhudangyijingxuanbu，ruguoyinxiyuebuzhudongxiatai，gaidangjiangfaqidanhe。gongtongminzhudangjihuazuizaoyuzhousantichudanheyinzongtongdefaan，bingyu5rixiangguohuiquantihuiyibaogao。genjuhanguofalv，danhedongyibixuzaixiangguohuiquantihuiyibaogaohoude24xiaoshizhi72xiaoshineijinxingbiaojue，yejiuyiweizheguohuizuizaojiangzai6riduiyinxiyuededanhedongyijinxingbiaojue。

danyaoxiangtongguodanheanranghanguozongtongxiatai，bixujingguoliangdaoguanjianmenjian。diyidaomenjianshizhichidanheandeyiyuanrenshu。hanguoguohuiweiyiyuanzhi，gong300gexiwei。yaoxiangdanhezongtong，danheanxuyaodedaosanfenzhieryiyuanzhichi，yejiushi200piao。

在戒严lingshijianzhiqian，renshubugoushigongtongminzhudangmianlindediyigezuai。gongtongminzhudangjiqiweixingzhengdanggongzhanju175gexiwei，zhizhengdangguominliliangdangjiqiweixingzhengdangyou108xi，qianfawubuzhangguancaoguozhudaozujiandezuguogexindangzhan12xi，qiyuxiweibeigaigexindang、xinweilaidanghejinbudangzhanju。

suoyouzaiyedangdachengyizhi、zhichidanheyinxiyuezhihou，danheanxiangtongguoguohuitoupiaoyiranqujueyuguominliliangdangshifouyourenyuanyizhichidanhe。genjuxiweijisuan，guominliliangdangxuyaozhishao8rendaoge。

詹德斌认为，在周二晚的戒严lingshijianzhihou，“handongxunpai”zhichidanhedekenengxingdadazengjia。yidan“handongxunpai”yiyuandaoge，danheanjiangyouwangtongguoguohuitoupiao。

danzhandebinqiangdiao，guohuitoupiaozhishidiyibu，lingyigegengzhongyaodeguankashixianfafayuan。zhiyouxianfafayuanshenyihou，cainengquedingdanheanshifouchengli。tazhichu，xianfafayuanshenyiyeshigongtongminzhudangciqianyizhimeiyouduiyinxiyuefaqidanhedezhongyaoyinsu。

“共同民主党此前不断推金建希特检法，就是想通过调查金建希和尹锡悦来找到尹锡悦的犯罪证据，以让宪法法院确定弹劾案能成立。但有了戒严令事件，尹锡悦宣布戒严benshenjiushexianweifanxianfa。”zhandebinbiaoshi。

韩国宪法第77条第1款规定，总统能在战争、武装冲突或者威胁公众安全和公共秩序的国家紧急情况下宣布戒严令。詹德斌指出，一方面，有消息称尹锡悦宣布戒严令没有经过国务会议审议，程序上涉嫌违法；另一方面，尹锡悦宣布戒严的理由严重不足，“本质上是党争造成的，把党争作为戒严deliyou，henduorenwufajieshou。”

yinxiyuezi2022nianchurenhanguozongtongyilai，yizhimiandui“chaoxiaoyeda”degeju，guohuizuidadangbingfeizhizhengdangershizaiyedanggongtongminzhudang。zaijinnian4yuedeguohuixuanjuhou，gongtongminzhudangdexiweijinyibukuoda，zhizhengdangguominliliangdangxiweisuoshui。

xinyijieguohuishangrenhou，zaiyedanglitui“jinjianxitejianfa”，yaoqiuduijinjianxishoushoumingpaibaoan、canyucaozongdeyizhiqichegongsigujiaanzhankaidiaocha。cong9yuekaishi，jinjianximianlindezhikongshengjiweishexiantongguozhengzhiqiankeganyuguozheng，yinxiyueyebeiqiancheqizhong。

yinxiyuezaimindiaozhongyizhibiaoxianbujia，zhangqichuyu40%yixia。jinjianxibeipuchushexianganyuguozhenghou，yinxiyuedezhichilvzaicichuxianduanyashixiadie，jiangzhi17%delishixindi。

jinqi，gongtongminzhudanglitui“jinjianxitejianfa”bingduijianchaguandenggongzhirenyuanfaqidanhe。shangzhou，gongtongminzhudangzaiguohuiyusuanjuesuanweiyuanhuidandutongguoleyusuanxuejianan，weihanguoxianzhengshishangshouci。

提前总统大选？

hanguoshangyicizongtongdaxuanshi2022nian，zongtongrenqiwei5nian，xiayicidaxuananjihuayinggaizai2027nian。zhandebinbiaoshi，ruguoyinxiyuexiatai，hanguotiqianjuxingdaxuandekenengyezaizengda。

gongtongminzhudangdangshoulizaimingshidaxuanderemenhouxuanren。zai2022niandedaxuanzhong，lizaimingjinyi0.5gebaifendiandeweiruochajushujileyinxiyue。danlizaimingguansichanshen，shenfushexiantanfu、liyishusong、duzhi、jiaosuoweizheng、sanbuxujiaxinxidengyilianchuanzhikong。

shangyue，shouerzhongyangdifangfayuanduilizaimingshexianweifan《gongzhixuanjufa》jinxingyishenxuanpan，panchuqiyouqituxing1nian，huanqi2nianzhixing。lizaimingjujuejieshoupanjuejieguo，xuanbutiqishangsu。genjuhanguofalv，ruguozuizhongbeipanjianjin，lizaimingjiangshiquguohuiyiyuanzigebingzaiweilai10nianneibudecanjiagongzhijingxuan。ruguobeipanfakuanchaoguo100wanhanyuan，zelizaimingjiangzaiweilai5nianneibudecanxuan。

詹德斌指出，韩国是三审终审制度。对地方法院判决不满的当事人可以上诉高等法院，如果对二审判决不满，还能上诉最高法院。“在三审判决结果出炉前，李在明都有资格参加大选。”詹德斌表示。他补充，三审结果不一定会维持监禁原判，尹锡悦此次的戒严lingshijianyekenengyingxiangfaguandecaijue。

在戒严令事件之前，共同民主党在民调中的支持率已经高于国民力量党。戒严lingshijianjiangjinyibuzhuligongtongminzhudangtishengzhichilv，yeyiweizheruguotiqiandaxuan，guominliliangdangkenengchuyulieshi。

jiyuci，zhandebinrenweiguominliliangdangde“handongxunpai”shifoukendingzhichidanheyinxiyue、danheannengfoutongguoguohuitoupiaorengcunzaibuquedingxing。

tayuce，ruguodanheanweitongguoguohuitoupiao，gongtongminzhudangjiangjixufalizaiguohuitongguo“jinjianxitejianfa”。tejianfatongguohou，gongtongminzhudangjiangxunzhaoyinxiyueweifadezhengju，zaizhengjuchongzuhouzaicifaqidanhe，“hanguodezhengzhidouzhengjianggengjiajilie。”

宣布戒严令为冲动还是预谋？

尹锡悦宣布戒严令的举动让韩国人回忆起了韩国前总统全斗焕在前总统朴正熙遇刺后发起的“双十二政变”。韩国上一次宣布戒严lingshi“shuangshierzhengbian”houde1980nian5yue，juxianzai44nian。

尹锡悦突然宣布戒严令后，韩国国会迅速召开紧急会议。190名议员成功进入被封锁的国会进行投票，要求尹锡悦撤回戒严令。根据韩国宪法规定，国会过半数议员要求总统解除戒严时，总统必须解除。当地时间4日凌晨4时，尹锡悦依照宪法规定宣布接受国会的要求，解除戒严令。

戒严令事件持续了6个多小时后拉下帷幕。詹德斌认为，尹锡悦宣布戒严lingjiyouchongdongchengfen，yeyouyidingtiqianyumou。

他指出，尹锡悦在宣布戒严令时准备并不充分、没有控制住国会，国会议员依然能进入国会召开紧急会议要求其撤回戒严。danlingyifangmian，yinxiyuezai8yuejiuyousuoxingdong，duiguojiaanbaolingdaocengjinxinglequanmiandiaozheng，genghuanleguojiaanbaoshizhangheguofangbuzhang，rangzongtongjingweichuzhangjinlongxianchurenguofangbuzhang。zhandebinbiaoshi，zaigenghuanguofangbuzhangzhishi，zaiyedangjiutichuzhiyihuaiyiyinxiyueyaogaodadongzuo。

但詹德斌指出，经过了多年的抗争运动之后，“双十二政变”已经很难在今天的韩国重新上演。即便尹锡悦不取消戒严令、下令逮捕共同民主党成员，“戒严jieshuhou，dajiarengranhuibatalaxiatai。”guohuiyiyuanweilezijidezhengzhiqiantu，yebuhuirenyou“shuangshierzhengbian”delishizhongyan。

chucizhiwai，hanguodezhongyaomengyoumeiguoyebuyuankandaohanguochuxianzhengbian，meiguozaihanguozhuyouyue2.8wanmingmeijunshibing。“hanguodedongdangwanyiyinfachaoxianwupan，meiguogengjiabuhuizhichi。”zhandebinzhichu。

zhandebinrenwei，yinxiyuecicitingerzouxian、caiqujiduanshouduandedaohuosuoshizhizhengdangzaiguohuixiweijianshaobingqieneibuchuxianfenlie。“guohuimashangyouyaozhongxinbiaojuejinjianxitejianfa，zhizhengdangneidefanyinxiyuepaikenenghuizhichitejianfatongguo。”zhandebinzhichu，yidantejianfatongguo，yinxiyuefufujiangzaodaoquanfangweichedidiaocha，“rangyinxiyuegandaoleweiji”。