wen | banmaxiaofei yangwei

baijiudexiaofeiqushibianhuashibukedang，zaicibeijingxia，guangpingjiuchengfengzhishang。rangrenbujinyaowen，miaozhundazhongxiaofeideguangpingjiu，nengfouweijiushuixingyedoudi？

shishishang，baijiuxiaofeishichangdebianhua，bingbushijiandandejiagexuqiudejiangdi，ershixiaofeiquntiriyilaolinghua、yonghuduigaozhijiabichanpindezhuiqiu，yijinianqingrendexuqiuduoyuanhuadeng，gongtongzuoyongdejieguo。

xuyaozhichudeshi，baijiushichanghuajishinianzaojiude“jinzitajiegou”，bingmeiyouneimerongyibengta。guangpingjiunengfouchengqiyalingxingjiegouzhongdezhongyaoyiji，rengrancunzaihenduobianshu。

光瓶酒逆势上行

baijiuxiaofeijiangjidebeijingxia，“dijia+darongliang”deguangpingjiu，chenggongxiyindaoxiaofeizhedezhuyili，shichangduandare，daidongxiangguanqiyeyejizengzhang。

shanxifenjiu（600809.sh）qixiaguangpingbofen，pingjieqinmindejiagehejiaohaodechanpinliyingdeleshichang。

jinnianqiansanjidu，gongsibofendengqitajiuleichanpinshourutongbizengzhang26.87%，weigongsichuangzaole85.40yiyuanshouru。

guangpingjiudahuo，yeweibufenquyujiuqizhengqudaozengzhangkongjian。

sidamingjiuzhiyidexifengjiuzhengshiguangpingjiushangxingdeshouyizhe。2024niandiyijidu，gaobolvpingxifengshanxishichangxiaoshoushourubiquniantongqizengzhangleyue34.6%。

zaibaijiugaoduanhualangchaozhongbiaoxianbujiadelaobaiganjiu（600559.sh），yezaizheiyilundiaozhengzhongqiangshinixi。jinnianqiansanjidu，gongsiyejizengzhang33%，gaojuagubaijiubankuaizengsudiyi。

bujinshizhuanyebaijiupinpai，jiulianyixiexinwanjia，yeturanganshoudaoleguangpingjiudemoli。

6yuechu，deguoliansuochaoshiaoleqishangjiayikuan500haoshengdeguangpingjiu，dingjia9.9yuan，henkuaishouqing，yinqireyi。

lingshouquan“dingliu”pangdonglaiyubaofengjiuyehezuo，tuichulianmingdingzhijiu——70yuandebaofengziyouai，gongzuoririxiao3000-4000xiang，zhoumohejiejiaririxiao5000-7000xiang。

hemayubaijiuqiyehezuodeguangpingjiuxiaoliangbiaoxianyebusu。2024nianshangbannian，hemabaohanpinpaiheziyoupinpaideguangpingjiuxiaoliang，zhengtizengzhangdadao60%。

juzhongguojiuyexiehuixiangguanshujutongji，2013nian-2021nianguangpingjiushichangguimonianjunfuhezengzhanglvdadao14%，yuanchaoxingyezengsu，yuji2024nianshichangguimojiangchaoguo1500yiyuan。pangdadezengliangshichangmianqian，weilaibujuguangpingjiudegeleiwanjia，zhiduobushao，huojiangjinyibutuidongshichangkuorong。

中高端白酒失守

yuguangpingjiushichangxuqiuwending，guimokuaisuzengzhangxingchengxianmingduibideshi，zhonggaoduanbaijiuzhengzaijinglizhentongqi。

feitianmaotaipifajiacongqianliangniande2700yuan/pingyidudiepo2200yuan；chuchangjiaqianyuanyishangdewuliangyepuwushuang11jiageyouhuizhi798yuan/ping；guanfangzhidaojia1499yuan/pingdeguojiao1573yidudiepo900yuan。

bufencigaoduanjiuqidebiaoxiangengshicanlie。cengjingdexingyeheimajiuguijiu，jinnianshangbannian，gaoduanneicanxilieyingshoujin1.73yiyuan，tongbixiahua60.85%。qiansanjidu，gongsiyingyeshourudajiang44.41%，guimujinglirunbaojiang88.20%，jinyou5649wanyuan。

“chuanjiuliuduojinhua”zhiyideshedejiuye，jinnianqiansanjidu，yingyeshourutongbixiajiang15.03%，qizhong，disanjidugengshitongbixiajiang30.92%。

jinnianbaijiuxingyededayingjia，dangshushanxifenjiu，gongsiyijingtiqiansuodingxingyeqiansan。qudezheiyichengji，guangpingjiugongbukemei。caibaoxianshi，jinnianqiansanjidu，fenjiuqixiaqitajiulei（zhuyaoweibofen）yingyeshouruzengsujihushizhonggaojiajiulei（zhuyaoweiqinghuaxilie、laobaifen、banamaxilie）deliangbei。

jinnianlai，gaoduanbaijiuyefenfentuichuguangpingjiuzhanlvedadanpin，wajuedazhongshichang。biruwuliangyedejianzhuang·rongguang，luzhoulaojiaodebaiyuanjidadanpinheigai、gujinggongjiutuichudehuaijiubanguangpingjiudengdeng。

光瓶酒能否兜底？

baijiushichangchuantongde“gaoduan+cigaoduan+dazhong”dejinzitajiegouzhengzaibianxingzhong，“gaoduan、dazhongliangtouqiang”deyalingxingjiegouyishixingyedashi。guangpingjiunengfoudoudi，kangqizheizhongyaoyiji？

2015nianqianhou，baijiushichangburuhandong，gaoduanjiuqijinzheyao，guangpingjiusaidaodejiazhiturantuxianchulai。dansuizhejingjichixushangxing，baijiugaoduanhuazhuliuqushiqueding，guangpingjiuzhinengzanshifangdizitai。

rujin，xiaofeijiangjiqushimingxian，yongyougengdayonghuquntideguangpingjiu，liyingdayoukewei。

xuyaozhichudeshi，guangpingjiudexiaofeichangjingshirichangziyin，danhexinbaijiuquntiriyilaolinghua，nianqingrenxiaofeixiguangengjiaduoyuanhua，guangpingjiudezengliangcongnalilai？

baijiuxiediaofuzadewaibaozhuang，huiguiguangping，bingbuzhishijiandandediaodijiage，hexinshichanpindezhijiabi。toububaijiuzaichanpin、channeng、pinpai、qudaodengjuyouquanfangweiyoushi，dangtamenfangxiashenduanzhengduoshichangshi，jiangduiqitawanjiaxingchengjiangweidaji。meiyougaoduanjiulirunjiachidejiuqi，zhangqilaikan，jiangchengshouyejiyali。

“guangpingjiuzhiwang”niulanshanbianshizuishengdongdeanli。2023nian，qixiadadanpin“bainiuer”dexiaoliangyicongdianfengqide8.4yipingxiahuazhibudao5yiping。

mianduifengxian，niulanshanyecengfalizhonggaoduanshichang，danyouyupinpaidingweideyuanyin，zhonggaoduanhuayizhiweiyouxianzhuchengxiao。2023nian，zhongduanjiu、gaoduanjiufenbiejinzhanniulanshanbaijiuxiaoshouede16.30%、14.33%。

ruhepinghenggaoduanhedazhongshichang，shitoubujiuqimianduidetongyidaokaoti。shanxifenjiuzaicifuxingdejichushibofen，danweilejinyibuyouhuachanpinjiegou，qiyeyizhitongguoneibupeiedeheliguihua，suojianhekongzhididuanbofendechanneng，zhubutishengzhonggaodangqinghuaxiliehebanamaxiliedezhanbi。

fuzadeshichanghuanjingxia，xiaofeizhedexuqiuchixubianhua，xingyecanyuzhedexintaiyijiumaodun。duanqinei，guangpingjiudezhengtiqushirengranxianghao，danxiangshangdingtuodeguochengzhong，huimianlinlaizigefangmiandeyali。guangpingjiunengfouchengqibaijiushichang“yalingxing”jiegoudeyiji，rengshigejudadewenhao。