记者 | 安晶
编辑｜刘海川

benzhoushihanguohunluandeyizhou，yeshifaguohunluandeyizhou。

dangdishijian2024nian12yue5ri，faguojiangjuxingquanguobagong，kangyigezhengfubumendebingjiajiangxinjihua。

faguogedilaoshi、kongzhongjiaotongguanzhiyuandenggonggongfuwubumenyuangongjiangcanjiazhousidebagong。faguominhangjuyijingtiqianyaoqiuhangkonggongsijianshaobalidengzhuyaojichangdehangban，quanfa65%dexiaoxuelaoshihe50%dezhongxuelaoshizhunbeibudaogang。

erbenzhouri，yinhuozaishousundebalishengmuyuanjiangzai5nianxiufuhou。weiqingzhubalishengmuyuanzhongkai，faguojiangzaizhouliujuxingqingdian，yaoqinglebaokuomeiguodangxuanzongtongtangnade·telangpuzaineide50duominglingdaorencanjia。zheiyejiangshitelangpudangxuanhoudeshoucihaiwaifangwen。

jiuzaifaguogongwuyuanbagong、balishengmuyuanzhongkaiqianxi，faguozuoyilianmenghejiyouyizhengdangyu12yue4rilianshouzaifaguoguominyihui（xiayiyuan）tongguoduifaguozhengfudebuxinrentoupiao，gangshangren3geyuedefaguozhengfukuatai。zheishifaguozi1962nianyilaishougebeiyihuituifandezhengfu，yeshifalanxidiwugongheguochenglihouzaiweishijianzuiduandezhengfu。

faguozonglimixieer·baniyexiangzongtongaimaniuaier·makelongtijiaocichenghou，makelongjiangxunzhaoxindezonglirenxuan。youyufaguozhengtanchuyu“sanzudingli”zhuangtai，xinzonglinengfoukangzhuzuoyilianmenghejiyouyizhengdangdeliangmianjiajirengshiweizhishu。faguodechizixuejianjihuayejiangdashangyigejudadewenhao。

为何走到这步？

jubaodao，zaizhousandebuxinrendongyibiaojuezhong，guominyihuide331mingyiyuantouchuzhichipiao。guominyihuigongyou577xi，yibanyishangyiyuanzhichijiuketongguoduizhengfudebuxinrentoupiao。

weilebabaniyezhengfulaxiama，ciqianzaiguominyihuixuanjuzhongshibulianglidezuoyilianmeng“xinrenminzhenxian”hejiyouyiguominlianmengshenzhidachenglehezuo，shuangshuangtongguotoupiaobiaodaduifaguozhengfudebuxinren。

muqian，xinrenminzhenxianshiguominyihuidiyidazhengdanglianmeng，guominlianmengweidisandazhengdang。makelongsuoshudezhongjianpailianmeng“zaiyiqi”weidierdazhengdanglianmeng，dangailianmengyubaniyesuoshudeyouyigonghedangdexiweixiangjiarengweizhanjuyihuiduoshu，wuliduikangzuoyihejiyouyizhenyingdelianshou。

zaizhousandetoupiaoqian，，buxinrendongyibuhuirangfaguodechizixianshipingkongxiaoshi。wulunxinzhengfulaizinagezhenying，yusuanchizidoushiwufaraokaidewenti。

guominyihuiduibaniyezhengfudebuxinrentoupiaozhengshiyouyusuancaoanyinfa。

baniyeyu10yuetijiaole2025nianyusuancaoan，tichuxuejian400yiouyuandegonggongzhichubingtongguozengshuidengcuoshizengjiajin200yiouyuandecaizhengshouru。faguoshigaofuliguojia，xuanminpubianfanganfulisuoshui、shangdiaoshuifei。baniyedeyusuancaoanzaodaozuoyilianmenghejiyouyizhengdangyizhifandui。

danoumengyijingduibaokuofaguozaineide7gechengyuanguoqidongguoduchizichengxu，geguoxuyaozaizhidingshijianneicaiquxingdongxuejianchizi，fouzehuomianlinfakuan。genjuoumengguiding，chengyuanguonianducaizhengchizibudechaoguoqiguoneishengchanzongzhi（gdp）de3%。faguoquniancaizhengchizizhangdpbizhongwei5.5%，jinnianyujijiangdadao6.1%。baniyemubiaozai2025nianjiangcaizhengchizijiangzhigdpde5%，dao2029nianjiangzhi3%。

weitongguoyusuancaoan，baniyexiangjiyouyiguominlianmengdeyaoqiuzuochuletuoxie，baokuofangqisuojianyibaoyaopinbaoxiaofanwei、buzaitigaodianlishuifei。danguominlianmengjinyibuyaoqiubaniyetigaotuixiujin、zantingtigaotianranqishui、jianshaofaguoduioumengdechuzi。

zuizhong，baniyeyubenzhouyidongyongxianfafuyudequanliraokaiguominyihui，qiangxingtongguo2025niancaizhengyusuanfaanzhongdeshehuibaozhangyusuanan。cijuyinfalezuoyizhenyinghejiyouyizhenyingdejititaofa，xuanbuduibaniyezhengfufaqibuxinrendongyi。dangshiwaijieyijingyujibaniyezhengfuxiataijiangchengdingju。

guominyihuitongguoduizhengfudebuxinrentoupiaohou，makelongzhuanmenduijiyouyiguominlianmengbiaoshilebuman，zhizegaidangweilefanduierfandui。

danshishishang，guominyihuichengxianchujintiandejumian、guominlianmengchengweijuzuqingzhongde“zaowangzhe”shimakelongqinshoutuidongdejieguo。

makelongsuoshudezhongjianpailianmeng“zaiyiqi”yuanbenshiguominyihuizuidazhengdanglianmeng，faguobenbuxuyaozaijinnianjuxingguominyihuixuanju，xiayiciyihuixuanjushi2027nian。danguominlianmengzaijinniandeouzhouyihuixuanjuzhongxiweishushangzhang、zaifaguodedepiaolvpaimingdiyi。zheiyijieguorangmakelongjingjue。

weilezuzhijiyouyizhenyingjueqi、kuodazhongjianpailianmengdexiwei，makelongjinxingleyicizhengzhi“haodu”xuanbuzaijinnian6yuetiqianjuxingguominyihuixuanju。zhengshizaizheicixuanjuhou，zhongjianpailianmengjiangweiyihuidierdazhengdanglianmeng，zuoyilianmenghejiyouyishilikuoda，xingchengle“sanzudingli”。

zaiguominyihuixuanjudedierluntoupiaozhong，makelongdezhongjianpailianmenghezuoyilianmengweizujijiyouyidachengguohezuo。danzaizuoyilianmengchengweiyihuixuanjudeshengchuzhehou，makelongjujuerangzuoyilianmenghouxuanrenchurenzongli，xuanzeleyouyilaopaizhengkebaniye。

faguoxianfabingmeiyouyaoqiuzongtongbixuxuanzeguominyihuizuidazhengdangdedaibiaochurenzongli，danweilezhengfuwending，tongchangqingkuangxiazonglidoulaiziyihuizuidazhengdang。makelongdejuedingjinulezuoyilianmeng，zuoyizhengdangbuduanyaoqiumakelongxiataibingduidizhibaniyezhengfu。

zuoyilianmengdenuhuoshidebaniyezaitongguofaanshizhinengxunqiujiyouyiguominlianmengdezhichi，jinyibutishengleguominlianmengdehuayuquan。

接下来如何？

faguoyijingzai6yuetiqianjuxingguominyihuixuanju，xiayiciyihuixuanjubixudengdaomingnian6yue。yincimakelongwufazaicixuanbujiesanyihui、tiqianxuanju。

baniyeyujijiangyudangdishijianzhousixiangmakelongtichucicheng。makelongkeyirangbaniyejixudanrenkanshouzhengfuzongli，zhidaotaquedingxinzonglirenxuan。faguoxianfameiyouweizongtongrenmingzonglishedingshijianxianzhi。

danjubaodao，xiaoxirenshitoulumakelongyouyixunsuxuanchuxinzongli。kenengdejirenzhebaokuofaguoqianzonglibeierna·kazenafu、xianrenguofangbuzhangsaibasidian·lekeerniheqiansifabuzhangfulangsuowa·beilu。

kazenafuzaifaguoqianzongtongfulangsuowa·aolangdezhizhengshidanrenzongli，laizizuoyizhenying。baniyeshangrenqian，kazenafubeishiweizuikenengchurenzongliderenxuan，yeshinengfenliezuoyilianmengderenxuan。nianjin38suidelekeernizelaizimakelongchuanglidefuxingdang。zaijiarufuxingdangzhiqian，tashiyouyigonghedangchengyuan。

beilumuqiandanrenzhongjianpaizhengdangminzhuyundongdangzhuxi，shimakelongdelaomengyou，zaizongtongdaxuanzhongxiezhuguomakelong。tacengjingzaifaguorenzuixihuandezhengzhirenwuzhongpaimingdisan。

danzhengrubaniyesuojinggao，wulunsheichurenzongli，shangtaihoudoujiangmianduixiangtongdenanti：zaizuoyoujiajizhongtuichubushouxuanminhuanyingde2025nianyusuanan，xuejianfaguodecaizhengchizi。ruguoxinzhengfutuichudeyusuananbunengmanzuzuoyihejiyouyizhenyingdesuqiu，xinzhengfuyekenengzaicizaodaobuxinrentoupiao。

zaixinzhengfushangrenqian，kanshouzhengfukeyidongyongteshufaan，bafaguo2024niandeyusuanzanshiyanzhangyiquebaozhengfujigouyouzugoudezijinjixuyunzuo。teshufaanyexuyaojingguoguominyihuitoupiao，guominlianmenglingdaorenmalina·lepangyijingchengnuojiangzhichiteshufaan。

faguozhongyouyizhengdangyiyuanqianzelepangwushibaniyezuochudetuoxie、zhiyibabaniyezhengfulaxiama，shixiangbimakelongzhudongcizhiyitiqianjuxingzongtongdaxuan。faguodexiayicizongtongdaxuanshizai2027nian。

churenfaguozongtongshilepangdesuyuan。taxianhou3cicanjiazongtongdaxuan，qizhong2cisharudierluntoupiao，yumakelongjinxingzuizhongduijue。zai2022nianzongtongdaxuandedierluntoupiaozhong，lepangdedepiaolvwei41.5%。danrujin，tadezongtongzhiluhuojiangbeijiaoting。

lepangji25mingguominlianmengchengyuanbeikongcong2004niandao2016nianbaouzhouyihuidezijinyongyuzhifufaguoguominzhenxian（guominlianmengqianshen）degongzuorenyuan，baokuolepangdebaobiao。faguojianfangxunqiupanchulepang2nianjianjin、5nianbudedanrengongzhi、fakuan30wanouyuan。ruguobeipanzuimingchengli，lepangjiangwufacanjia2027niandezongtongdaxuan。

fayuanjiangyumingnian3yue31rixuanbupanjuejieguo。ruguomakelongxianzaixiatai、faguozai1geyueneitiqianjuxingzongtongdaxuan，lepangyirannengganzaipanjuejieguochuluqiancanxuan。

guominyihuitongguoduizhengfudebuxinrentoupiaohou，makelongcizhi，dan“zongtongmianduideyalihuiyuelaiyueda，zhiyoutazijinengjueding。”

zuoyilianmengciqianyaoqiumakelongcizhidehushengzaomakelongjianjuejujue。zheishimakelongdezuihouyigezongtongrenqi，tayijinglianrenguoyicizongtong，faguoxianfaguidingzongtonglianrenbunengchaoguoyijie。

zaizhousandetoupiaoqian，makelongzaicimingquewuyicizhi。taqiangdiao，zijizhudongcizhideqingjiezhihuichuxianzai“zhengzhixiaoshuo”li。benzhouliu，tajiangyutelangpuzaibalishengmuyuandezhongkaiyishishanghuimian。